FOMO When It Comes to Buying Houses at The Moment?

Saw a couple of houses today.

Looking at buying our first home and have been looking for about 4-6 months in the South Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. (Covid has impacted our house searching somewhat- I am back to casual but still earning good money)

In the last 3 or 4 weeks in particular, houses that we have seen at say 10am inspection times have had offers on them the same night!!!

What the hell is going on? Do people have a fear of missing out at the moment….

Yes, we really want to buy a house but some of these properties have legit been unbelievably bad and in need of heaps of work.

I am not trying to be picky but an example I will give you.

"Another buyer walked in the same time looking at a property. In there for the same amount of time as myself, didn't check anything just eyed it down, we both happened to walk out the same time and he said to the agent he was really keen and wanted to put an offer in asap".

I was perplexed. Each to their own I get but wtf is happening!!!

I am very easily losing motivation at the moment.

Comments

  • "Another buyer walked in the same time looking at a property. In there for the same amount of time as myself, didn't check anything just eyed it down, we both happened to walk out the same time and he said to the agent he was really keen and wanted to put an offer in asap".

    I did exactly this. Is this not what everyone does?

    We'd been looking for almost a year. We knew what we wanted. We saw the place. It ticked most boxes. Made an offer on the spot. I've spent more time inspecting $5000 cars.

    It's how the game is played. If you choose not to play, be prepared to lose.

  • +5

    I'm guilty of this. I went into an inspection and made an offer within 10 minutes. Offers only stay for 24-48 hours sometimes (or when I did it but it varies). The house sold to me and I managed to weed out those going home to talk to husbands/wives and those that wanted to think about it. After I got sign off, offers higher than mine popped up but it was too late. Basically, if you snooze, you lose.

    • +1

      Did you check the contract prior to ensure there weren't any easement issues or other potential issues on the lot?

      • Yes, and here's a funny but decent tip. The agent had one copy of the section 32 onsite and I just whispered to him "Since I'm making an offer, can I take this Section 32?"… which I ended up taking away. (I checked through the main things such as reason why it's being sold, any pests or potential damages and sewerage lines before making the offer). But taking the Section 32 compromises the sale for other competitive buyers who would need to wait for the email copy instead rather than reading on the fly.

  • +1

    People have capital, cheap rates and nothing more safe to plop your money than in property.

  • I went in last year, inspected a place once. Had a limit to my bid, then just went for it and got it. Debt is so cheap it's like buying candy. YOLO.

    • better pay it off in a hurry before the candy gets more expensive. who knows in another 10 years or more.

      • YOLO is an excuse for everything these days.

        • +2

          Because everything is so retarded and weird.

          To be successful in real estate you have to be retarded before everyone else

  • +1

    Price is driven by:
    1. LOW SUPPLY (Especially houses on big blocks)
    2. Low interest rate (almost break even buying vs renting)
    3. Unfortunately, foreign investors are still active. Even though not as in 2015-2017 level yet.
    4. People don't need to sell Especially in good wealthy suburb
    5. Everyone somehow synchronisedly want a house! 2 of 5 friends looking. Cash had been saved during covid. Next to nil interest in bank.

    I was a property bear for years. We owned a little villa but never upgraded for different reasons but mainly thought property price is insane. Then covid came and price cooled off a bit but to my stupidity i thought price will go down a bit more like some economists predicted while still looking for the perfect house. 2021, i thought supply will be better since we're kinda out of covid. I was wrong… i saw price gap up in suburb i was interested in… 200k difference since June 2020. I ended up buying in a good alternative suburb be pushing hard in an auction and probably paid 100k more than June 2020. Ouch? Yes. Regret? Can't think so. By the rate it's going, property market is going mad. It may crash but not in 2-4 years time imho.

    Price can only cool off if APRA curbed lending again like 2018-2019. Again, i was a property bear for years. After seeing pandemic and recession didn't dent housing market + low supply, i changed my mind. Again, anything can happen but not near future. And price hasn't reached 2017 level atm. Almost! Didn't buy perfect house but definitely tick most boxes.

  • Australia is the best country in the world to live now. Global travel is not happening on scale for the next few years. Everyone is going to be staying put. Even domestic travel is going to be expensive.

    What do you do with all that saved money and the knowledge that you need space to work from home and for the kids (or future kids) to play? Move to the burbs and buy a house. Or upgrade your existing house.

    I do not believe investors are driving this market. It’s first home buyers and upgraders.

    • +1

      Nah, not yet investors…. Just cashed up home buyers atm and some onshore immigrants buying for families once they can come. Seen them in actions in some auctions. Not a large number yet.

    • -1

      Best country to live where you can't domestic travel because it is too expensive and you can't travel international.

      Basically luxurious prison.

  • +5

    FOMO is happening because of FIVE main reasons:

    1. Interest rates historic lows.
    2. Lending has relax greatly, where it was very hard to get a loan around COVID-19 and the year before.
    3. Incentives - Government stimulus flowing.
    4. Saving Rates Increase - As a result of stimulus and reduced spending habits, ie travel.
    5. Perception! - The media is drumming up the 20% increase to property price next two years.

    If you want a property, it has characteristics or value that is very hard to find, and of course you can afford it - buy it.

    Just please factor your repayment capabilities if rates move up to 5%. It won't happen anytime soon, but it will happen eventually.

    IMO the market will only slow down if rates move up, incentives drain out of the economy, lock-downs happen again, COVID mutations wreak havoc.

    • +1

      I agree with most of your points. I'm flabbergasted with the price movement just for the last 9 months. I would have thought the recession/pandemic will put a cap on property market which only lasted 3 months 6/2020-9/2020. If APRA tighten lending then price will be capped, loose lending + low interest rate drives ppl mad. It's gonna be hard to raise interest rate once you have an ultra low rate, like Japan. Don't think we will go negative but even before covid RBA had been decreasing interest rate due to economy situation. Covid just sped it up.

      • +2

        Pity is few Australians have been to Japan and fewer know the Japanese property crash (the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo was at one point valued more than all the land in California) or zero interest rates (carry trade) and QE that came after.

        • +1

          True, I know abt Jap property crash. Feel free to correct me, but the drive crashing it is declining population + declining economy.

  • Just buy apartment, no fomo for these buyers

    • +3

      FOMO on negative gearing. Pay $1 to the bank and ATO gives back 30c. Then hopefully at the end there is a big capital gain.

  • +3

    I personally think that record low interest rates have driven the house prices up to some of the highest in the world.

    What worries me is when the rates rise in a few years people are going to be paying ALOT more. for example an 850k home, every 1% increase in interest means you need to fork out an extra $8,500 a year. Banks are also becoming more relaxed with lending which only drives the house prices up even more.

    I bought my own home 4 years ago for $390k (Yes its cheap) and calculated it at 7% interest to ensure I can cope with repayments and my wife not working while we have kids. Dont forget the rainy day fund EG; a car blows up which has happened to us. (You need disposable income).

    Your in it for the long term so factor all these things in, if you can barely make the repayments now you are over-commiting yourself.

    I strongly suggest considering what you can REALLY afford at a higher interest rate. If I didn't have a house at the moment, I personally would rent. I also think we are in the middle of a housing bubble and foresee an absolute bloodbath. I know people don't want to hear that but its my opinion and I have been researching the market for some time.

    Im looking into buying land when prices become affordable again.

    • +2

      I agree. I did all my rate calcs on standard 5% assumption with worst case 7%. If you can’t afford repayments at these percentages you are on very shaky ground.

    • +1

      Crash is always possible. I was expecting it in Covid/Recession period last year and it went down only a mere 8-10% (suburbs i was monitoring). IMHO, we re in a cusp of a housing boom driven by low interest + pent up demand. Dunno for how long but if the market overheated too much then yea crash may happen. ATM, hard to say since we're very low in stock. Not many ppl are selling, they keep their properties tight.

    • +2

      rates won't rise. RBA has dug a hole and there is no way out of it without the housing market collapsing.

      • Never say never. I understand the logic and agree in some degree tho.

      • +1

        People have no way out of the housing market without going backwards (after REA fees and not be able to re-enter without good chunk of stamp duty).

        Plenty of investment properties significantly above the land tax threshold too, the government is having a field day and shoveling money like crazy.

        • I guess the ppl are jumping in atm are mostly home buyers. Investors are still side lining and probably they know the days of flipping properties may be over. Hard to find anything less than a mill house in a good suburb.

          • @Bargain-er: You are probably right. There is always a first time for doing something stupid. Or it might just get so good that investors have jumped right in and the first time buyers are just the ones left holding the bag.

            • @netjock: Even tho investment and a home are totally 2 different types of assets. You buy a home where you would like to live. Renovate to your taste. Investment you want yield. Different tick boxes.

              • +2

                @Bargain-er:

                Investment you want yield

                Only if you buy city apartments.

                Otherwise everyone wants capital gain.

                Thought we were clear on OzB. You pay $1 to the bank so ATO can not charge you 30c for about a decade, then hopefully when you sell you have this massive capital gain. Tell everyone how you've made it, then moan about how you can't get into the property market because everything is so expensive.

  • House prices may rise up to 20% over the next two years - if this is the case I hope Covid remains with us for a very long time coming because I may not be allowed to travel, but it is offset by my properties going up significantly.

    • +6

      Is that prediction from CBA/Westpac? The ones predicted 30% crash just a few months before?

      • Yes but idc if they are right or wrong - the reality is there is enough recent sales to suggest that demand is back, back, back and even better than ever. Look at the past auction clearance rates over 85% and think of all the buyers who missed out - in some auctions 20+ have missed out.

        • Haha yes, i know demand is back and ppl are jumping in. It's like everyone wakes up one day and decided to buy a house… And that's the scary part… Missing buyers will go harder to get one. I was just making fun of those economists… :P Crash, boom, 30%!

        • Over 90% in sydney.

      • It's a number plucked out of thin air

      • +6

        They manufactured the predicted crash to get a government bail out. 0.1% unlimited money for 3 years.

        Now they are saying it will go up by 20% so they can lend out as much of that money as possible.

        Only mugs believe that banks are giving away free advice for your benefit.

    • Property prices going up as a substitute for travel.

      That is like the mob paying you to be the fall guy, go to jail and your family will be taken care of.

      • +3

        I can't go away for a long weekend, better buy that $1.2m 3 bedder I've been eyeing off…. Unless people spend far more on holidays than I realise.

  • +1

    I need to just find a job that pays more I guess.

  • +1

    I am going to agree the so called experts' prediction that REA is going to raise 20% in next two years, but it's done by the shrinking buying power of the paper money you are holding now.

    Look at the ways the countries around the world printing out the money right now, it's not hard to imagine that a loaf of bread would cost $5 in 2023. Hey, even a line of digital code on your hard disk (Bitcoin) worths US$50k now.

    • +1

      Look at the ways the countries around the world printing out the money right now, it's not hard to imagine that a loaf of bread would cost $5 in 2023.

      US stimulus checks generally go to the poor people. Like JobSeeker here listed a lot of people out of poverty by letting them catch up on over dues. JobKeeper was rorted but it wasn't that much.

      RBA QE depends on whether the banks can find credit worthy borrowers (or liars) to lend their money to. You don't have to go too far before lending to those with No Income, No Job, No Assets (NINJA loans that cause the GFC in the USA).

      Hey, even a line of digital code on your hard disk (Bitcoin) worths US$50k now.

      Problem with bitcoin is actually:
      1. You can't buy anything low value as it is going to cost $10+ to process a transaction
      2. You can't purchase high volume because it takes 20 mins to process a transaction as in
      3. If you believe it will be a reserve currency the next recession / depression you are going to have a problem. Unless you confiscate people's bitcoin how are you going to spend to stimulate the economy to avoid a deep depression?

      Problem with our current system is actually politicians who have zero understanding of economy or try to use it to buy votes. When times are good cut taxes, when times are bad cut taxes. So when you do actually catch up? It seems like governments are forever getting tax payers into debt.

      • Do these negatives of bitcoin prevent it from driving up property prices?
        You can get bitcoin credit cards where the transaction happens straight away from the bitcion/crypto to fiat currencies for spending.

        I'm afraid high property prices is a first world problem world wide…
        https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/11/global-c…

        • +2

          This is the problem when you trade necessities as speculative assets. Gov should stop selling OZ to foreigners and limit property hoarding.

        • Isn't normal credit cards buy now pay later. What is why it is a bitcoin credit card not a bitcoin debit card. Be prepared to stand for 20mins to buy a coffee with a $10 surcharge for bitcoin debit.

          • @netjock:

            Be prepared to stand for 20mins to buy a coffee with a $10 surcharge for bitcoin debit.

            The cards are issued by fintech with EMI, SVF, VISA, Mastercard issuing licenses. They may also be members of BACs, SEPA, SWIFT and UK fast payments. Transactions are settled according to VISA/MC procedures.

      • When central banks inject/print more cash to the economic without productivity increase, only for the sake of rescuing the economic, regardless where the money goes to, the buying power of the money going to be depreciated, hence people buying hard assets to preserve their wealth.

        Hence people invest in properties, shares, and gold. I named Bitcoin to show how people rather trust a fictional currency than the green notes Uncle Sam printed out. Yes, Bitcoin is highly speculative, but even the institutional establishments have joined the game.

        • Yes, i too realised this. A bit late but not too late. If we compared the interest rate 2% vs 5% over 30 years for 1 mill loan, the difference is huge (> 800K). I think going by this logic, people are jumping in. If you fix your rate, it may be as low as 1.8%. It's almost break even leasing and the interest you're paying (not considering management fee).

          Not sure what price level we're in atm…? May be 2016? or 2017?

        • Another one the doesn't get currency depreciation and inflation.

          If the RBA prints money the a
          Australian dollar might depreciate against the USD. If all advance economies are doing QE so all currencies are keeping relative value. Notice how the Japanese Yen and USD are relative stable. AUD and USD is always between 55c to $1.

          On inflation. Just because RBA just pumped $200m into the economy your hair cut hasn't gone up overnight neither has your loaf of bread. Central bank buying bonds is contains inflation. Giving money to banks to lend out they need to find credit worthy borrowers. They are not just giving money out to the homeless at 2% so they can buy a $1m inner city unit. Some of this money makes it to the share market not because of RBA it is because RBA depressing official rates depress lending rates on general because it is a reference rate.

          People invest in assets to preserve or grow their money. Problem is people don't understand what they are invested in.

          If you invest in property you are only richer than those who can't and those who invest in lower quality property.

          Let's get to bitcoin. Bitcoin is fixed at 21m, gold is fixed, you can't produce what is more on earth. Both are expensive to mine. What is the difference? I don't think there is. Bitcoin is WeWork of gold. It is just gold dressed up as a tech business, worse is there is no physical product. If it all goes south you won't even have a shiny trinket to play with.

  • +3

    I personally blame the government of 2007 that changed the rules to allow SMSF to borrow money to invest in property.

    • +1

      Trust me, it's the foreign investors ;)

      • +1

        Foreign investors can only invest in newly built properties, mostly apartments. Now, foreign investment not matter how small they are, all subjected to Foreign Investment Board review and approval process.

        • Yeah, but not in the past. Original comment is for 2007 rules. But even now, they bought through family members who are alr here.

      • They took our jerbs!

      • Trust me

        Never trust someone that uses that line to gain trust.

      • it's the foreign

        Government always blames them because they don't vote.

    • Or roll back of caps on concessional super contributions (from $50k to now $25k) which means people are forced into paying tax, their only concession left is trying massively leveraged capital gains.

      The tax credit on $1m loan is like $20k which is $6k tax reduction. But the salary required to have a negatively geared $1m loan is like at least $200k, don't even want to see the monthly repayments.

  • +1

    House on our street is for sale (north west sydney). They went off market initially and inspections for a few weeks with no less than 25 groups of people per day. Of those 25 groups, 90% are elderly asian couples in BMW or Mercedes cars. They kindly take off their slippers and straw thongs before entering.

    Yet to achieve their desired (inflated) price of $>1.3m. House was listed for $1M 12 months ago but no sale.

    Going to market this weekend with opens friday, saturday and sunday. Expecting hundreds of people to fill the street. Also expecting the sale price to go for $1.35. Crazy times

    • -2

      90% are elderly Asian couples in BMW or Mercedes cars.

      90% is kind of high considering Asians are more likely to buy Toyota and Lexus.

    • Sound like North Kellyville area

    • What area? Maybe I should come along with some popcorn.

    • +1

      Sounds like Baulkham Hills to me

  • +7

    Reading the horror stories here makes me feel like we won the lottery.

    Just settled last week on a 3br house on 400m2 land, 15km from Syd CBD, under $900k. Previously we were looking at units to rent out while continuing to rent, just to get a foot in to the market.

    If it wasn't for the fact that the owner wanted to sell privately away from RE Agents and was ok with taking a price that wasn't indicative of current market madness, wife and I simply wouldn't have stood a chance. No way we could have competed in the open market with investors, or people looking to knock down and rebuild.

    I really don't know what to advise, OP. I'd been demoralised about re-entering the property market for years - was waiting for a 'crash' or readjustment. Can't see it happening given the tax incentives and interest rates. I don't wanna say 'get in any way you can', just gonna have to widen the net further if anything…

    • +2

      Wow congrats! Happy for you. May i know how you know the vendor while the house is not marketed by REA? Someone you know? Thanks.

      • +3

        Thanks!! Vendor was our landlord; we were renting the very same house we bought. Rental was done via a REA but the owner came round to fix something one day and I said 'just so you know, we love living here, and if you ever think of selling…" It was their grandmothers house so they didn't want the house getting bulldozed. Renting it was the ultimate 'try before you buy'. Yep, very very lucky…

        • Good things come to good people. Congrats again, and happy for you again. I wish next time we upgrade, good things will come to us too :)

        • +1

          The vendor has saved 2.2% selling commission plus marketing fees.
          The ad on domain itself would cost $5K
          Sounds like a win win for both sides.

        • +1

          Congrats buddy, happy to hear these good stories still happen in the world

  • +2

    Barefoot investor. Buy a house you can afford. You can still get a lovely home in a nice suburb close to the city in Brisbane under $1m.

    That's what we've done and we should be able to pay off the mortgage in a lot less than the standard 25 years…

    • +1

      You can still get a lovely home in a nice suburb close to the city in Brisbane under $1m

      What is the average salary in Australia? Even on a dual income you'd be struggling to pay that kind of a loan at 80% LTV.

      The government just wants to squeeze small time landlords out so everyone is just spending their life paying off their primary residence with non deductible after tax money. The perfect squeeze for tax revenue.

      • With no kids, dual-income, you're looking at 10-15 years if all goes well.

        Also, what you mentioned is the system. This is why people are prepared to risk their money on shares etc to try and escape it.

        • Ozbargainers should be the quickest lot to pay off their loans given their frugality

        • By the time you pay it off you won't be able to have kids so story checks out!

          • @netjock: That's the thing. Which is why it takes almost 30 years since if you want to have 2-3 kids, primary carer loses their income for a while, and to childcare.

  • Yes i can confirm that the market has heated up since late last year. I am in similar shoe as a few other poster above. Ihave been banking on Covid and recession would put pressure down on prices, so i have hold off buying for the past 12 months. I was wrong, and as a few have said, we have a once in a life time Global Pendamic and it has little to no affected on house prices, so it is unlikely price will go down, unless we we a US style "crash" which will be rarer than the pendamic.
    I have been house hunting South Western Sydney area for the past 5-6 months and have witness a lot of house sold at their first open house. Some sell before auction as well. It is the best time to be an REA right now as they dont have to do much. Buyers just competing each other until they are outbided. I just sign a contract for a house last month, which is 10% more that what it would have sold 6-10 months ago. I made the decision because i need a house and my time is running out. This FOMO behaviour of the market is similar to what i have witnessed the REA market in the 2015-2017.

  • +1

    Interesting ABC news article on interest rates. Maybe a rise in rates will cool the market.

    Nothings a given faced with the crazy scenarios we have seen despite what the RBA have stated.

    • They're talking a rise in variable rates occurring in late 2022 (instead of 2024). Along time away before we'll see rate rises. You might see the removal of the 1.99% fixed 3-4year loans from the middle of this year, but that shouldn't shock the market like a "RBA raises rates, your bank to follow" headline (which will come at the end of 2022 at the earliest)

      • Look at the Bank of England. They been saying rates will go up since like 2013 with foreward guidance. They only managed to go from 0.25% to 0.75% then dropped 0.25% due to Brexit and then down to 0.1% for COVID19.

        Also look at US official rates (US mortgage market has longer term fixed rates people enter into at start of loan) or NZ rates.

        Problem with raising central bank rates is the government is the first to go bust.

      • True but might make people think twice about over extending themselves in the knowledge that rates may rise in not to distant future.

  • Property prices are absolutely nuts atm… even in regional and rural areas.

    Take this property as an example. It sold in January 2020 for $400k https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-laharum-135…, and 14 months later is being re-sold for $575k (https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-laharum-135…). What the actual?

    • Insane… must be the shortage of land in Australia.

    • A 30% gross gain for a 14mth hold is pretty good. The vendor took the risk and was rewarded accordingly.

  • I'm going to be a fresh grad soon, and was thinking of moving out and finding my own place. Looks like I won't be able to do anytime in the near or distant future ahaha

  • Can you get a home loan as a casual?

    • A friend of mine from overseas (not sure what visa, but they have family here and are working legally) recently got a loan for $600k. They work casual packing biscuits, only done it for 2 years, had minimal deposit and have no other work history in Australia. The banks will literally lend money to anyone.

      • +1

        Yeah wow. Goodness me. Doesn’t sound good on the surface…

      • Really doesn't sound right, unless the family here stood in as guarantours/co-signers for it.

        after a quick google, these are some of the things I saw:

        • Non residents get slogged with higher interest rates and fees.
        • If you're on a visa you would need a larger deposit (eg a 457 visa loan probably requires 20% - $120k in your example)
        • If on a work visa may require an in-demand job (or future prospects of an in demand job), like Doctors.
        • Requires at least 12 months left on the visa.

        Now I know not all loans will require these, but even without the higher rates you would probably have repayments of $3,500-$4,000 a month. Not sure you'd get that as a casual packing biscuits (with taxes/living expenses on top).

  • +4

    Do what I did, find one of the many vacant rentals which has been on the market for MONTHS which you like, then reach out to the owner to see if they want to sell. Then you both win as you circumnavigate the RE fees :)

    • How do you reach to owner? The identity will be protected by REA? Thanks

      • Good old Facebook. I got lucky and the owner had posted their own rental in FB market place, but you can still find the owners name of a property using a property check service and then do some sleuthing to find them and reach out.

        • Smart move. Happy for u mate

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