Will Tesla Get Cheaper or More Expensive with Rebates?

activ8newbs on 29/01/2022 - 12:12

I'm looking to purchase A Tesla.
For budget reasons, happy to proceed with Model 3 as it's cheapest.

Hoping however, to purchase the performance Version, with full self drive capabilities.

Currently sticker price driveway RRP from Tesla I believe is $94k + $10k for self driving.

Do we have any indication if this will get cheaper over the next 3-5 years due to govt grants and EV subsidies, or do we expect it to get more expensive?

I can stretch, and purchase it now.
Or we can wait 3-5 years and upgrade later.

Not sure if I should pull the trigger now or not?
Thanks

Automotive Car Electric Vehicle Tesla Inc

Comments

  • [Deactivated] on 29/01/2022 - 12:51
    +1

    Tesla recently put up the price of "FSD" and governments around the world are winding down subsidies.

    • chuq on 29/01/2022 - 12:55
      +14

      Tesla recently put up the price of "FSD"

      That was only in the US.

      governments around the world are winding down subsidies.

      Only the ones that introduced them 10+ years ago. They've done their job of speeding up EV uptake. We're much further behind.

      • [Deactivated] on 29/01/2022 - 12:58
        +1

        Yes, but my point was that neither of those things are trending in the direction of making them cheaper. It's the opposite.

        • chuq on 29/01/2022 - 16:04
          +2

          Tesla has said they would be gradually increasing the price of FSD over time, as more features are added, so that one depends on how much of a gambler you are I guess.

          Subsidies have nothing to do with average EV price. The cars are dropping in price faster than subsidies are being removed, and subsidies are not being removed in Australia so that's not relevant to OPs question.

          • netjock on 31/01/2022 - 13:50

            @chuq: Problem with FSD is they never add the FSD, just more features.

            Would have been cheaper in the past due to time value of money, in theory if you are getting the product.

        • Boogerman on 30/01/2022 - 08:32
          +5

          The Model 3 RWD is cheaper now drive away than when it was released in 2019

      • 811b11e8 on 31/01/2022 - 10:11
        +3

        We have moved on to adding special taxes to EVs at least in Victoria.

        Forget about rebates and hope you don't cop a brand new tax to single out EVs or if live in Victoria you already have one.

    • HeWhoKnows on 30/01/2022 - 21:05
      +3

      Any time governments meddle with markets (eg subsidies) the price ALWAYS goes UP or otherwise there is not enough supply.

      And Tesla cant keep up with demand so they are always in short supply
      Again this equates to prices going up

      But most importantly OP and many others miss the biggest influence on the price of imported goods and that is the $A which is in LONG TERM downtrend against the USD

      Expect if to dive down to 60c over the next year with 68c the near term target. (Already down to 70c)

      I'm not here to explain why. You can do your own research on that one.(Hint: Rising US interest rates) But the writing is on the wall and the $A is already showing weakness. Recall it was up around 80c early last year and is currently flirting the 70c level - down 3c in just 2 weeks!

      • netjock on 31/01/2022 - 13:51
        +1

        In the short term FX fluctuations.

        Look at the price of computers over the last 20 years.

  • chuq on 29/01/2022 - 12:54
    +16

    It's hard to tell. The (base level) price dropped by $7k in October 2020, then $4k in April 2021 then another $3k in July 2021. So it's on a downward trajectory, but hasn't changed for a while.

    Existing incentives are on a per state basis, and Tesla has a fixed price nationally, so they offer the same price anywhere. They haven't increased their price in response to any incentives (which have appeared in various states at different times since June last year) since that would be obviously screwing people in states that don't yet have incentives.

    Many states have an upper price cap on incentives, which gives Tesla themselves an incentive to stay under those caps (between $68k-$79k). However I notice you're looking at the Performance edition which eliminates it from most incentives.

    One thing in your favour - when you order, you are protected from both price rises and price drops - i.e. if the price goes up, you are locked in at the original low price. If the price goes down before you make payment (which you should do about a week before taking delivery) they will re-issue the invoice with the new low price. It's currently a 14-20 week rate so it's good insurance for that period of time.

    Also - don't get FSD with the car. You'll pay stamp duty and LCT on it. You can buy it as a software upgrade later then you don't pay those extra taxes/levies (just GST). It also means you can wait until the FSD capability is more fully featured if that concerns you.

    • tonyjzx on 29/01/2022 - 13:22
      +4

      there's a meme video of Elon promising working FSD 'next year'

      but he's been promising it every year… since 2014…

      I would rather let my $10k sit in bitcoin to be honest

      • modsec802 on 29/01/2022 - 23:06
        +6

        Yeah they opened the Boring Company Las Vegas tunnels which are a closed loop and the most controlled environment in the world and the Teslas still have humans driving them. Elon Musk is full of shit.

        • [Deactivated] on 29/01/2022 - 23:10
          +1

          Lol

          • tonyjzx on 30/01/2022 - 00:04
            -1

            @[Deactivated]: well as much as i dislike elon as a person AND i know he runs factories like bezos runs his unfulfilment centres the reality is he produces the best $60k ev and he can actually put rockets into space… in fact hes pretty much the only game in town in the us….

            • [Deactivated] on 30/01/2022 - 01:33
              +2

              @tonyjzx: And the point is???

              • saltypete on 30/01/2022 - 18:47
                +1

                @[Deactivated]: I take the point being that for someone supposedly full of sh@t Mr Musk has actually actually achieved some pretty significant things. Imagine what he could have done if he wasn’t full of sh@t???🤔. I not an expert on what people full of sh@t do, and defer to modsec802 ‘ s specialised knowledge. And really, @tonyjzx. should do as well.
                😁

                • DonWilson on 30/01/2022 - 19:43
                  +5

                  @saltypete: The main thing Elon has achieved is making people think he achieved things. His paypal version failed so his group bought Paypal. He didn't found Tesla, he bought it in 2008, the year they first released a car after 5 years of development. He claims SpaceX is massively cheaper than NASA and yet it costs the US government more to get stuff into space with SpaceX than it did when NASA was doing it.

                  What has he himself achieved that isn't hype/speculation based?

                  • TheBean on 31/01/2022 - 19:30

                    @DonWilson: Even if all he did was hype it, we now have those areas pushed along due to his involvement? He's been a pretty big face of a lot of those areas, maybe they would have developed just as fast without him, but maybe not.

                    • DonWilson on 31/01/2022 - 22:01

                      @TheBean: The only thing I'd agree he's pushed forward due to hype to any degree is electric cars. Everything else is empty hype. But I agree that the car part is a good thing. I'm a little worried what happens if Tesla's stock price crashes which would just be a realistic correction to it's market cap versus earning potential but for now it's pushing things forward, which is good.

        • md333 on 30/01/2022 - 12:10

          That was due to needing to comply with fire/public transit regulations, not because the cars couldn't do it.
          Getting it to work in a non-controlled environment is another thing altogether.

          • BobLim on 30/01/2022 - 20:33

            @md333:

            That was due to needing to comply with fire/public transit regulations, not because the cars couldn't do it.

            Same thing.

            Likewise, the "trackless trams" giving the all the politicians a hard-on aren't "innovative" - they're just very expensive buses which don't meet any of the rules for use on public roads, so the bus manufacturers rightly assumed there would be no market for such a vehicle, and hence, didn't develop one…

        • capslock janitor on 31/01/2022 - 10:06

          where's the public rocketship travel?

      • Abaddon on 01/02/2022 - 15:23

        King of snake oil. I can highly recommend Thunderf00t (and voice of thunder) on Youtube who has been debunking a lot of his claims for years now.

        I'm still not ready to drop this kind of coin on a vehicle with such objectively terrible customer service. Especially given the high cost of batteries and their environmental impact. Makes sense to reduce reliance on foreign oil, and moves some pollution out of the cities, but most of our EV's are going to harm the environment for Lithium and them primarily run on coal or natural gas anyway. Environmentally you're better off in a second hand internal combustion vehicle.

  • kma on 29/01/2022 - 12:55
    +20

    Stretching for a vehicle is never a good idea, unless perhaps if it's a collectable. If you can't comfortably afford it, leave it for now.

    • Kangal on 30/01/2022 - 19:57
      +3

      This.

      Tesla vehicles are much more affordable in the US due to lower price, taxes, rebates, and more availability/competition. Not to mention some talented people who managed to buy write-off Tesla's, and scrap them together to make functional ones. Despite all of that, a Tesla isn't that affordable in the US.

      We're much further behind.
      If anything, a Tesla will continue to be a luxury brand across the world until 2030. By that time, their market share would have dropped. With Chinese Brands offering decent options at affordable prices. And only then will Tesla decide to start competing. We might then see a Tesla vehicle (without FSD or subscription) which is affordable, and potentially competitive on price with other ICE and BEV options.

      Elon is smart and is good. But he isn't as nice as portrayed commonly. Everything generous he's done has benefitted him greatly, like it was carefully calculated. I say this so you understand why an affordable Tesla isn't mainstream, it is by-design. The company is maintaining as much profit-margins as they can tolerate. When the market does shift (and it will thanks to the EU, California, and the Nordics) then you will see them pivot their current strategy. But their end-goal seems to be to Sell No Cars, and instead have a robo-taxi service…. And more importantly have people subscribing to their company (like a phone contract) for a car "ownership" where they pay month-to-month and get a new model every few years. While the old models get refurbished, upgraded, and leased back out, safety be damned.

    • HeWhoKnows on 30/01/2022 - 21:17

      There are many manufacturers jumping on the EV band wagon.

      Expect plenty of more affordable choices in a couple of years coming from Hyundai and Toyota for example

      • Logical on 30/01/2022 - 23:09

        My thoughts are that none of the competition will ever have the performance of a Tesla and be in the same price range. Competition will first try to match the travel range first to appear as good as a Tesla, however will lack the acceleration.

        • SwarleyAUS on 31/01/2022 - 08:55

          EV6 is pretty on par with the model 3 performance… besides, range has very little to do with the motor, ergo the acceleration. Bigger motor = more acceleration (all things being equal) and does not necessarily mean less range.

        • Euphemistic on 31/01/2022 - 10:02
          +4

          We don’t need the acceleration of a Tesla. A 20yo corolla is plenty fast enough for city traffic and the majority of drivers. Stupid fast cars, city traffic and pedestrians do not belong together. If anything city speed limits are going to get lower to create places more amenable to being outside a vehicle.

          • netjock on 31/01/2022 - 13:53
            +3

            @Euphemistic: Time is money. Fastest one to the line at the next set of red light wins the mega mugged trophy.

  • apsilon on 29/01/2022 - 13:24
    +4

    All EVs will get cheaper year on year as they become more mainstream and competition increases. IMO that $95k model will be $85k within 3 years though I think grants will largely have dropped off by then as well but I still think you'll be in front. Additionally I can't see FSD being approved in Aust within the life of the vehicle so really I think paying for that feature upfront is just throwing money away.

    • Euphemistic on 29/01/2022 - 13:59
      -1

      EVs won’t really get cheaper, they’ll just bring out more budget models. Tesla has picked a market point and slotted their model 3 into it, adding features and comfort someone paying that’s price would expect. Lots of features, bigger price just like the BMW, Mercs it competes with.

      • apsilon on 29/01/2022 - 14:12
        +2

        True but many of those cheaper models will have the same or better features than Tesla which will bring their price down. Others will go the other way and bring real luxury models to market. I've said it before but if you ignore the fact it's an EV, Tesla model 3 really has little to no unusual features, they're actually a really basic car in that sense and they won't be able to continue charging a premium for it.

  • RockyRaccoon on 29/01/2022 - 13:26
    +1

    Reports are that newer models will have a newer battery being developed by Panasonic, which increases the distance and is faster to charge.

    https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/24/22898666/panasonic-4680-t…

    So maybe not cheaper, but more versatile, and probably better resale compared to current model.

    And a bit more from that article.

    As well as their higher storage capacity, the company’s CEO Elon Musk said the cells are six times more powerful, and reduce cost per kWh by 14 percent (batteries are estimated to make up 30 percent of the cost of an electric vehicle). Lower prices and improved range are the sorts of improvements that are key to making electric cars more desirable, as Nikkei notes.

    So maybe cheaper depending on Elon's mood at the time.

    • tonyjzx on 30/01/2022 - 14:21

      there's already been talk of a 'model 2' and some kind of small suv like a Nissan Dualis sized tesla

      but the model 3 looks like its about rock bottom… i cant think theres any way to get to $50k unless they have some kind of massive deal on some kind of new battery type

      so its really up to the chinese to get them to the $30-$40 mark… i feel $25 is not possible since nissan renault could only get there by cutting safety and range in their Dacia whatever the hell which doesnt even have 200km? for $20k?

      • apsilon on 30/01/2022 - 14:28

        I'm sure I've read an article where Tesla said they could make a US$25k car right now but have no interest in doing so while they can continue to charge a premium. That's just normal business practice but competition will change that. US$25k is $10k cheaper than the current standard model 3 so could potentially be around AUD$45k (keeping in mind we pay ~$10k more than the US price)

        • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:18
          +1

          Exactly right. Tesla (and all other EV makers) are currently charging HUGE markups. And why wouldn't they when people are still demanding more of them than anyone can make?

          Musk is currently pouring a lot of his huge profits into SpaceX, which is at maximum money burn stage. We'll see if that particular money pit ever makes a quid - my guess is not, but then I thought Tesla wouldn't either.

          But for OP, as supply catches up with demand EV prices are only heading one way - down, and much more quickly than a lot of people think. This short term effect is independent of tech progress in them, which is also lowering costs but only relatively slowly. As for subsidies, etc they are small beer in most of the world now, including Australia. Removing a small subsidy has only a small effect on the price.

  • Hvrd on 29/01/2022 - 13:55
    +4

    with the aud getting weaker i doubt it

  • pegaxs on 29/01/2022 - 13:56
    +2

    More expensive due to the fact that manufacturers usually increase prices in direct proportion to any incentives offered.

    • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:20

      Much more importantly, they increase prices in direct proportion to the demand for their product - which for EVs is far ahead of supply.

  • Euphemistic on 29/01/2022 - 14:02
    +1

    I don’t think Aussie’s are going to get any decent incentives. We can be seen to be taking up EVs as they trickle into our showrooms, but the government (particularly this one) isn’t going to hand out cash to help them get cheaper.

    • xtremehell on 29/01/2022 - 14:12
      +3

      Good. They are one of the least effective ways (per dollar) for government to reduce emissions and are another transfer of wealth to the upper classes.

      • abb on 31/01/2022 - 09:34
        +3

        Unfortunately the government isn't doing anything more cost-effective to reduce emissions either

    • chuq on 29/01/2022 - 16:05

      There are already incentives from at least the NSW, Vic, SA, ACT and Tas governments.

      • Euphemistic on 29/01/2022 - 17:46
        +1

        Not very big incentives.

  • activ8newbs on 29/01/2022 - 14:40
    +6

    Thanks for all your answers
    I think I'll be better off waiting 3-5 years and hopefully buying second hand to avoid LCT etc.
    Happy to buy 2nd hand if I save $10k-15k even if car has 20k-40k km on the clock

    Thanks

    • md333 on 30/01/2022 - 12:13

      They seem to be holding 2nd hand value very well at the moment, but I suspect may drop quite a bit when the Model Y finally comes out as lots of people seem to have a plan to trade their 3 for a Y.

      • Gumster on 01/02/2022 - 12:21

        All 2nd hand cars are higher at the moment due to covid tax, and shortage in supply of newer cars.

    • Logical on 30/01/2022 - 23:19
      -1

      Try and avoid buying a used Tesla in the future that was regularly 'supercharged' due to bad battery degradation because of it.

  • GordonD on 29/01/2022 - 17:18

    Elon got off to a good start by building something that no-one else was. His cars so far have been revolutionary pieces of technology. But he can't keep selling the same few models forever. Pretty soon he's going to have to come up with new models that actually replace existing models, rather than selling into a new product category. And when he does they are going to gave offer something new and better. Its hard to see how it can be better motors or electronics. Teslas already have as much power as anyone can use. And there are only incremental improvements available in electric drivetrain efficiency. So it has to be battery technology and packaging. And I don't just mean repackaging them into a bigger cell size and getting 10-20% more range out of the same size and mass battery pack like Panasonic is talking about. All these promises of potential big improvements have got to turn into products some time. And when they do that's when you'll see a Tesla bought today suddenly start to drop in second hand value.

    The talk is that's going to happen in 2024. Or maybe 2025. So do you go EV now, knowing that's going to happen about then. Its what we are used to with ICE cars. Or do you sit on the decision to buy one expecting that what you'll be able to buy then with be a substantial step better. Its the classic early adopters quandary.

    • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:24

      " you'll see a Tesla bought today suddenly start to drop in second hand value."
      Which will be as nothing compared to the drop in second hand value of ICE cars when there are cheap new EVs available. If you are concerned about depreciation I would not buy an expensive ICE car ATM.

  • hasselbladsnapper on 29/01/2022 - 18:33
    +1

    As a long term retired employee of one of the big 3 vehicle manufacturers, when I first started I was amazed that rather than having a design & build cost, they would have had some sort of fixed percentage for profit - Not So!. The metric, is see what all the others are charging and then apply a desired profit for your vehicle!.

    I suspect we are seeing a replay of this in the introduction of electric vehicles, charge as much as is possible, for as long is possible. Later on, the market/ model competition will bring the cost down, the Chinese imports will I expect make this happen quite fast as the USA based builders - GM,Ford,Tesla will want to protect their market share and profits in the end.

    In 2-3 years, there will be large cost reductions as volume rises and the market swings over to EV's.

    Australia may be a bit slower due to charger introduction, if that is limited and slow it will hamper the growth of EV's and the price competition with reduced market penetration.

    • Euphemistic on 29/01/2022 - 20:37

      The metric, is see what all the others are charging and then apply a desired profit for your vehicle!.

      This is largely any business model. Build something to meet the market, make it a little better in some way but largely exactly what the competitors are offering. This is especially so in businesses that have lots and lots of categories they compete in.

      Charge as much as you can is core to profits.

    • RatBargain on 01/02/2022 - 00:12

      Not sure why you’re being so secretive about who you worked for. Nothing revealed was a secret?

      Basically free market supply and demand?

    • Gumster on 01/02/2022 - 12:26
      +1

      Yeah this is Price Anchoring and percieved value.

      People believe that more money means better quality.
      This is not always the case but marketers sure abuse it.

      If you sold a similar spec car 10-20k below what your competitors are doing people would think its too cheap and they must have skimped on quality, and it won't sell.

  • modsec802 on 29/01/2022 - 23:08

    I wouldn’t hold your breath for self driving. Google the Boring Company Las Vegas tunnels which recently opened - the most controlled conditions on earth and the Teslas can’t even drive themselves. Elon is a fool if he thinks Teslas will be driving themselves in the real world any time soon.

    • Boogerman on 30/01/2022 - 08:35

      Truth

    • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:29

      To be fair though it's the regulators, not Tesla, that prevents full self driving in that tunnel. Musk is pissed about it - he doesn't think it is needed.

      But still, it does look more and more like fully autonomous cars (ie no steering wheel) are the transport of the future - and always will be.

  • activ8newbs on 29/01/2022 - 23:47
    -5

    What do you mean?
    Full self driving is legal and available in NSW

    • drewbytes on 30/01/2022 - 08:51
      +1

      Errr. No it's not anywhere. Driver still has to be in control of the vehicle.

      • activ8newbs on 30/01/2022 - 22:10

        Sorry. Touching the steering wheel every 30 seconds to demonstrate you're not dead/inattentive is still reasonably self driving imho

  • joshash on 30/01/2022 - 08:10

    With the price of lithium carbonate going up literally 600% in only 12 months, and continuing to rise it's hard for me to see how EV prices will fall in the next 3 years..if anything it looks like they'll get more expensive unless governments increase subsidies.

    • rektrading on 30/01/2022 - 10:20

      ESG will ensure that oil becomes so expensive that people can't afford to operate private ICE.

    • RockyRaccoon on 30/01/2022 - 14:06
      +1

      Then under supply and demand basics, if government wastes money on subsidies, then the demand will increase and so then the price for lithium carbonate.

      So “unless government ‘ is a useless concept. Lithium will only drop when supply is greater than demand, unless lithium company shareholders are just nice people.

    • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:37

      1) That 600% is cherry picking the base - lithium prices fell very low in 2020 as the pandemic hit.
      2) Stull, it is true there is currently a shortage of lithium. The reason is very simple - you can build a battery factory far faster than you can build a mine (especially the railway to the mine and the port to ship the stuff), and the Chinese are opening a new battery factory EVERY MONTH. Longer term there's plenty of lithium in the ground (and sea) to meet demand.

  • Boogerman on 30/01/2022 - 08:36
    +7

    You’re not ‘stretching’ your purchase if you factor in whole of life costs (10+ years)
    That said, you want the performance version, which means you don’t want for function but for thrill. I suggest saving money, get the AWD version & if at some stage 4.5 seconds 0-100 isn’t fast enough for you, pay the $5000 for the performance unlock (0.5 seconds quicker)

    • cya on 30/01/2022 - 22:11
      +3

      It’s $3000 for the performance boost.

      • Boogerman on 31/01/2022 - 09:08

        Wow! That’s cheaper than in the USA

        • Dogsrule on 31/01/2022 - 17:17

          I believe AB is $2k in the US which converts to $2850 AUD. Still very close in price.

  • SavingBux on 30/01/2022 - 08:59
    +8

    I stretched mightily 7 years ago to purchase my Model S Performance. Best purchase decision ever. Even now, there is no other vehicle, electric or petrol, which gives me as much pleasure to drive as my now vintage Tesla (and we've test driven every other electric vehicle on the Australian market).

    Will your purchase become obsolete? Yes, almost instantly.
    Will it be cheaper in the future? Yes, most likely.

    In the electric vehicle space, there is Tesla and there is everyone else. No one "gets" electric vehicles like Tesla. Every new electric vehicle model for the last 7 years has been proclaimed as a "Tesla killer". None have ever lived up to that hype.

    Don't miss out on the most enjoyable driving experience you'll ever have just because something better is coming "soon".

  • Halo375 on 30/01/2022 - 08:59

    They’ll get cheaper in time as there is a hell of a lot of more competition starting to enter the market over the next ten years as the whole passenger market shifts to electric. Don’t pay more for a car than you must - just not worth it.

  • techinoz on 30/01/2022 - 10:07
    +10

    Current Model 3 owner here, my 2 cents:
    - Very unlikely they will get any cheaper from here. They've already come down a lot and seem to have found a good price point in the market. In the US prices have actually risen a couple of times recently.
    - Consider buying used, now that its been out a while in Aus there are quite a few used Model 3's available. Remember depreciation, buying used is 'generally' better than buying brand new.
    - Do not. I repeat, DO NOT buy FSD. Don't encourage this behaviour. Never ever pay to be a beta tester and never pay for the promise of future features. FSD is still many years away and then will need to go through regulatory approvals. Invest your $10k elsewhere and buy it whenever its ready for prod release. Don't let the fanboy's try convince you otherwise, approach this with a clear and rational mind…the logical/rational decision is don't buy it.

    Good luck!

  • WillThisNameDo on 30/01/2022 - 10:09
    +1

    It’s going to be interesting when the next Federal election is called. I know ALP have their Electric Car Discount policy proposal - https://www.alp.org.au/policies/electric_car_discount/ and who could forget ScoMo’s extraordinary mental gymnastic backflip recently - https://youtu.be/XEU7laWbH7c. I was attracted by Tesla and think I got caught up in some hype. Some of it is well deserved, I might add. But recently my head has been turned by their competitors, namely the ioniq 5 and the EV6. I’ve also owned a Hyundai and currently own a Kia and know what they’re like to deal with first hand. Tesla has been reducing their prices, that’s a fact. With the “newest” vehicles I think they’re banking on scarcity being pinned to price. When more than 400 vehicles are able to be purchased in Australia at a time, you impact the scarcity factor. Will that impact the price? Potentially. In short, I don’t know :)

  • modsec802 on 30/01/2022 - 10:20
    +1

    https://youtu.be/o7oZ-AQszEI

  • dec1an on 30/01/2022 - 12:07
    +6

    There is no "full self driving" mode. Read the fine print. You're fully legally responsible for everything that happens, as the driver.

    Get a grip, people. Autonomous driving won't just arrive with a new car or a software update - we'd need to completely remake our cities.

    • D3HUN on 30/01/2022 - 21:36
      -4

      Oh. Is it a forecast like "What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?" or "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." ???

      I don't see why a properly designed system with gazillion of sensors couldn't achieve the same thing as a person with two eyes and a set of ears. In fact the safety is getting close (or even surpassed) of what a human driver is capable of: "Overall, autonomous vehicles (AVs) were involved in more crashes: 9.1 crashes per million miles traveled, compared to 4.1 for conventional cars. However, as compared to injuries experienced in traditional vehicle collisions, the ones involving injury were minor."

      I suggest you watch a few dash cam compilations on YouTube and you might see why our fellow hoooomans are not always on the top of driving.

      • abb on 31/01/2022 - 09:46
        +1

        I don't see why a properly designed system with gazillion of sensors couldn't achieve the same thing as a person with two eyes and a set of ears.

        And I don't see why a system containing a sufficient number of NAND gates couldn't achieve full human intelligence and consciousness. But we ain't there yet.

        Also an automated system must be vastly safer than human drivers or (some) people will resist it, and that may well include the lawmakers. Look at the people refusing the AZ COVID vaccine for example - much safer than the virus, but they've heard the vaccine has a tiny risk so they don't take it. Bad drivers will be all like "naw, I ain't lettin' some roh-bot crash and kill me! I'm a great driver!" (proceeds to erratically change lanes without indicating or checking blind spots).

        It's very easy to game the crash stats for autonomous driving too - you simply revert to human control whenever the going gets tough. Heavy rain, for example.

        Human driver with computer assistance (emergency braking, lane guidance, vigilance monitoring) is probably the safest option at present. I do think it can be solved in software/tech, but it'll probably need an order of magnitude more processing power.

        • dec1an on 31/01/2022 - 10:10

          Urgh. Keep up, people:

          Experts who've been trying to crack this for a long time have given up and now want to make pedestrians, cyclists and other road users the problem by making them wear beacons.

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2021/11/06/bidens-1…

          • abb on 31/01/2022 - 11:53
            +2

            @dec1an: Car manufacturers blaming pedestrians for existing is hardly a new thing, why do you think we got jaywalking laws?

            They can want it all they want, but making people wear beacons is fracking stupid.

        • D3HUN on 01/02/2022 - 16:57

          Thank you for your point. Let's wait about 5 years and get back to this topic to see what could be achieved.

      • Abaddon on 01/02/2022 - 23:48

        You've killed your own argument, the fact humans are so unsafe is a big reason why full self driving is so difficult. They're still sharing the road with morons.

        • DonWilson on 02/02/2022 - 01:51

          Honestly that's one of the lesser problems. The big problem is that the combinations of conditions that are visually—>digitally similar but not the same are very hard to compensate for. Even just different lighting on the exact same section of road is very different to a computer analysing a digital image. And everything about cars is not standardised in a way that's easily identifiable to a computer.

          The permutations of what certain pixel arrangements could mean is vast and computers are way worse than humans at identifying them. It sounded convincing in the early days, tenish years ago, with the promise of AI - basically just inputting a buttload of data and hoping a massive bulk of it would provide enough data for algorithms to learn all variations. But it's become very clear that hasn't worked and likely will not work.

        • dec1an on 02/02/2022 - 09:30

          I like this comment because it makes it explicit that you think cities should be built for cars, not people. If you like being in a city like Phoenix AZ more than Copenhagen in Denmark, I can imagine thinking this.

        • dec1an on 03/02/2022 - 12:37

          lol that you think 'humans' [outside the car] are the problem here
          https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/02/tesla-p…

  • ECE on 30/01/2022 - 12:25
    +1

    Buy what you can afford.
    Simples 😷💪🏿

  • shangoz on 30/01/2022 - 21:39
    -4

    Bit scary the Batteries pack which Three to Five years might need to replace due to ageing, not like petrol car, even Twenty Years still run strong and as original performance as long as keep good maintenance, but batteries just can’t be maintenance such way.

    • abb on 31/01/2022 - 09:47
      +4

      That's weird, the petrol in my petrol car only seems to last a few weeks when I'm driving regularly!

    • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:45
      +1

      At least ten years out of date, mate. Already batteries last far longer than most ICE engines, and they're getting better and better.

      If you are worried about battery degradation what do you think of the degradation of something with thousands of moving parts and subjecting those parts to tens fo thousands of small explosions per hour?

  • pogichinoy on 30/01/2022 - 22:30

    I don't think it will any cheaper within the next 1-2 years but definitely an improvement on the features in that same period.

    I like long road trips and enjoy the mileage of diesel, but a Model 3 would be nice to have around town.

  • beesquared on 31/01/2022 - 09:10

    It will be interesting to see how the governments recoup the lost money from fuel sales and the impact they have. States are proposing a EV road user charge based on km traveled, although they are delaying for a few years.

    • jok3r on 31/01/2022 - 14:03

      https://acrs.org.au/newsroom/electric-vehicles-in-australia-…

      NSW government plans on introducing a new EV tax that will see drivers pay 2.5c per kilometre (EVs) and 2c per kilometre (hybrids). The tax has been deferred until 2027.

      • beesquared on 31/01/2022 - 14:40

        Yes, SA is the same, they to have deferred if for a few years. But there is a national fuel excise currently of 42.5 cents plus GST component. Unless there is some sort of reconstruct of funding between national and states, pretty sure the feds will be sticking their hand out in the next few years as well.

        • Dogsrule on 01/02/2022 - 10:15
          +1

          The ridiculous thing is that the states were never going to lose any money from declining fuel excise as it is is levied by the Feds. The states are just making a blatant cash grab and impeding the uptake of EV's, and the Fed and motorists will be picking up the tab.

    • derrida derider on 31/01/2022 - 15:46

      And Victoria has had one for over a year.

  • Dr Techno on 31/01/2022 - 09:56
    +1

    insurance seems expensive for these with average annual cost for full comp is $2000 ish.

    • CuteWittleCorgi on 31/01/2022 - 17:12

      For a $100k car? That's pretty cheap isn't it?

    • drewbytes on 31/01/2022 - 20:30

      Long Range model for me - $854 with NRMA, or $1050 with Comprehensive Plus (unlimited hire car, glass cover no excess etc). You have to shop around. I did get one quote over $3,000.

      • soaringphoenix on 01/02/2022 - 08:35

        Not bad. NRMA wanted over 2k from me. Cheapest I have found is about 1.5k.

        • Dr Techno on 13/02/2022 - 22:42

          Cheapest Ive fouind is $1414.. Sure I love the idea of a Telsa but since I can fix cars doesn't seem financially sensible to me.

Login or Join to leave a comment
Login Join