Bitcoin over $30k USD again, proving naysayers wrong once again

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  RatBargain on 13/04/2023 - 11:17

  +2

  Buying your PPOR, you are hedging your bull predictions don't eventuate.

  Selling at 50% of BTC ATH, demonstrates absence of conviction.

  A snapshot in time does not prove or disprove anything. You didn't know that FTX would collapse. And neither will you know if Coinbase, Bianace or Robbin hood will be around in 5 years and the ramifications.

  This is a story of fortunate circumstances, timing and willingness to take risks; not of victorious - Naysayers were wrong

  I doubt Bitcoin will even go to $10k, let alone $5k.

  Of course it is plausible, and you know it. Doubt and feelings sum up crypto gambler theses well.

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 12:50

    A snapshot in time does not prove or disprove anything. You didn't know that FTX would collapse. And neither will you know if Coinbase, Bianace or Robbin hood will be around in 5 years and the ramifications.

    That's true, it works until it doesn't, like Credit Suisse, 166 year old bank, gone.

    What I can confidently say is, these entities you have listed, FTX, Coinbase, Binance, Robin Hood, these are all support companies, they can all collapse and Bitcoin itself will be unaffected. In fact this has already occurred, I looked back at all of the exchanges I used back in 2013/2014, they are all gone, they don't exist anymore. Look at the Mt Gox hack, it was responsible for 85% of all Bitcoin trading volume, people said Bitcoin was dead when it collpased, look where BItcoin is now.

    So I don't know whether these other entities you listed will survive, but all I know is, Bitcoin will survive, just like it did in the past.

    Selling at 50% of BTC ATH, demonstrates absence of conviction.

    You referring to my trades to get $2.5 mil AUD cash? Well, a vast majority of my net wealth remains in crypto and my cost basis is well below the BTC ATH or ATH of any coin. I sold to purchase a house to live in, so there's a reason, doesn't demonstrate an absence of conviction at all.

    This is a story of fortunate circumstances, timing and willingness to take risks; not of victorious

    Isn't this any successful investor story? Have you read all those property investor stories? Its the same thing.

    Of course it is plausible, and you know it. Doubt and feelings sum up crypto gambler theses well.

    Definitely plausible, is it likely? The property market can drop 50+%, you know its possible, it has happened before, look at all those mining towns in Perth, but is it likely? I'd say not.

    • 

      RatBargain on 13/04/2023 - 14:27

      +3

      If your cost basis is much lower, that is a incredible trade and a very wise decision.

      By your words, you are telling others to invest in BTC because it worked for you wonderfully in this instance.

      By your actions, you cashed out to fiat in order to take chips off the table and diversify into bricks and mortar.

      You can call it a non-investment, PPOR or roof over your head.

      In reality, it's hedging, transferring into an alternate asset class that is arguably more secure, less volatile with underlying value.

      The full conviction alternative being renting with maximum exposure to $BTC while it rides to $1m

      This is the hole in your conviction and advocacy

      Again:
      My criticism isn't that you sold. That is a great trade. It's the fact that you're spruiking this amazing investment opportunity because it worked for you in this instance.

      So I don't know whether these other entities you listed will survive, but all I know is, Bitcoin will survive, just like it did in the past.

      How do you know this? Is this a feeling a secret squirrel? A time machine?
      Being that past results guaranteed future outcomes?

      Just like the share market or any investment vehicle, there are theories and hypotheses. Like a roulette table, a green or red day and bet correctly isn't necessarily validation of the trader's genius

      • 

        techlead on 13/04/2023 - 14:35

        +1

        By your words, you are telling others to invest in BTC because it worked for you wonderfully in this instance.

        I said no such words. I'm not telling others to invest in BTC. All I'm doing is encourage others to be open minded and debunk some common myths about Bitcoin and other cryptos. Whether they invest or not, I couldn't care less, its up to them, its their decision.

        By your actions, you cashed out to fiat in order to take chips off the table and diversify into bricks and mortar.

        To purchase a house to live in, because I believe that has value. I still see this as a liability though. I only cashed out enough to buy the house, the rest, which is the vast majority of my wealth remain in crypto.

        In reality, it's hedging, transferring into an alternate asset class that is arguably more secure, less volatile with underlying value.

        It is, I'm buying a house to live in, technically another asset, so it be called "hedging", but again, vast majority of my wealth, still in crypto, many multiples of the $2.5 mil AUD cash. So while it is technically a "hedge" its not much of one.

        The full conviction alternative being renting with maximum exposure to $BTC while it rides to $1m

        Its not 100% conviction, I gives you that. I said I'm not a Bitcoin nor crypto maximalist, not do I have to be.

        How do you know this? Is this a feeling a secret squirrel? A time machine?
        Being that past results guaranteed future outcomes?

        Past performance is not an indication of future performance. History do not repeat, it rhymes. Given Bitcoin's properties, demonstrated by open source code and its past performance, I'm confident should a shock event happens, such as Coinbase, Binance and all other exchange falls, that Bitcoin as a network will survive, just like when Mt Gox collapsed. I don't know for certain, its an educated hypothesis, which can turn out to be wrong. I would gander that what I'm saying here is more accurate than the RBA predicting that the first rate increate will be in 2024 back in 2022 lol.

        Just like the share market or any investment vehicle, there are theories and hypotheses. Like a roulette table, a green or red day and bet correctly isn't necessarily validation of the trader's genius

        Very true, this applies to shares, bonds, property and commodities alike. That is the gamble you take in investment.

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:11

      +1

      The collapse of bitcoin exchanges DID materially effect the value of bitcoin. So did the pandemic etc. And why did they, when you’re right, they shouldn’t affect an asset? Because they affected ‘faith’. And bitcoin’s value is 100% faith based.

      (So mind you are Fiat currencies, however they’re also backed by armies, powers of taxation etc.) They can vanish overnight, but so could bitcoins value.

      It’s much more likely Bitcoin is legislated out of existence than a property drops in price 50% and yet property dropping 50% isn’t super rare for any individual property.

      Pretending major events don’t impact crypto is spreading, not debunking myths. I know a dozen people who’ve gambled and lost big on crypto for every one success story, because where did the successful ones get the money? It wasn’t by producing anything of value that’s for sure, it was selling the dream to others who bought high and the who had to sell low in order for others to buy ‘low’.

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  lostgoat on 13/04/2023 - 11:48

  +2

  I wonder if OP had a thread 'Bitcoin over $60k USD again, proving naysayers wrong once again' when BTC was reaching all time highs lol :) ?

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 12:40

    I sure will start such a thread. When Bitcoin goes over the previous ATH which is $69k, I will start such a thread to celebrate.

    • 

      lostgoat on 13/04/2023 - 13:42

      I'm a bit disappointed the gloom and doom events look like they are over . I wanted to get some BTC cheaper. Speculating I'm aboard BTC at 50k prior to 10k making it look like a bet .

      • 

        techlead on 13/04/2023 - 13:54

        Same, I had buy orders all the way down to $5k, got abit excited a few times late last year, I really though that liquidation cascades will push the price down there.

        Unfortunately, it did not. T_T

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  Blargman2001 on 13/04/2023 - 13:12

  Easy credit and money printing has dried up. Crypto's just going to be a roller coaster like any other speculative asset now. Where do you think all the money for BTC speculation came from during its bull run? No one with billions of cheap fiat to gamble with now.

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 13:15

    Why is it going up?

    • 

      Blargman2001 on 13/04/2023 - 22:13

      Why does the ASX go up? Because people put money in when they see an opportunity and take it out when they don't. Before people had a whole lotta excess money to blow on long shots and now they have to be more targeted. If you're a trader who speculates on high risk alternatives, when you see something go up you'll hop on the rollercoaster until it hits it's peak. Gone are the days of retail traders and mum and dads taking out 50:1 leverage on their life savings to try and push crypto to the moon.

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      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:14

      Inflation means what you’re measuring it against is going down. Couple that with the belief the US may not raise rates much more and speculators gonna speculate. Will go up and down a million more times before it hits zero. When that will be, or if any of us are still alive then, still to be determined.

  • 

    pook1e341 on 13/04/2023 - 13:33

    +1

    I agree that excess liquidity in the market is a contributing factor to the incredible gains of BTC, but I don't think it's the only one by any means.

    I've noticed that the most recent cycle has been the DeFi (decentralised finance) cycle. A big part of this is lending and borrowing, which exacerbates the reflexive nature of crypto price action unfortunately…

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  Speckled Jim on 13/04/2023 - 13:36

  +2

  The best products sell themselves.

  That wall of text?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 13:39

    By that logic, I shouldn't get a mortgage then? I recently got pre-approved for one, the amount of paper work and terms and conditions, its wallS of text, plural lol

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:17

      So a bank dissuading you via ‘work’ still couldn’t stop you? Houses really do sell themselves.

      You need somewhere to live, people always will (short of population decline), there’s no reason people need a specific currency unless you can pay taxes in it.

  • 

    SpicyStew on 13/04/2023 - 13:59

    +1

    it's crypto free marketing.
    enthusiasts like this do the marketing for you.
    it's like tesla marketing model.

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  SpicyStew on 13/04/2023 - 13:44

  You are not a nakamoto!

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 13:53

    Of course not, he/she or a group of people has move 1 mil BTC. I definitely do not have that.

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  Promistaker on 13/04/2023 - 13:48

  +1

  To The Moooon 🚀🧨

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 13:53

    +2

    More like to Mars and beyond. For someone like me who has held Bitcoin since 2013, we are already beyond the moon

    • 

      Promistaker on 13/04/2023 - 18:09

      But I'm seeing Bitcoin coming back to sub 20k till the end of the year before a proper mars mission starts. 🫣

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  tessel on 13/04/2023 - 14:57

  Why do you care what others think? I mean, if you believe it why do you need others to confirm what you think or why do you need to point out why others are wrong? Honest question. What difference does it make?

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 15:06

    I like to discuss with people who have opposing or a different view to me. I find it interesting and helpful as well to poke holes in my way of thinking, to see if my views stand up to scrutiny.

    I may change my mind if someone brings up a good point. I've done it in the past. I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013.

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:22

      I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013.

      You weren’t wrong, you just underestimated how many people would fall for it. Increases in value are dependent on others still underestimating that. Decreases are what will happens when ‘a sucker born every minute’ stops being true.

    • 

      modiika on 17/04/2023 - 17:26

      What to you is the value of bitcoin specifically? And given that, what is the causal reason its value should dramatically increase.

  • 

    JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:19

    Unless someone else believes in it, it has zero to negative value.

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  idonotknowwhy on 13/04/2023 - 15:41

  +2

  I assume you're not the abnoxious youtuber with the same name.

  Take the property market for example, there is a range of regulation changes, which governments can implement which will cause it to break

  I had this mentality for over a decade. I've changed my mind about it for this very reason though:

  regulation changes, which governments can implement

  Most of the voter base either owns their property, or is paying off a mortgage on one. Unlike China, we elect our leaders; and tanking the property market would be very unpopular. IMO, if the government(s) are going to do anything, it will be stimulating and bailing out the property market. That said, I'm not planning to buy investment properties.

  Here's a recent trade I did. I purchased 20.82 BTC late 2022 at $16688 USD per BTC, I sold it over the last few days at an average price of around $30100 USD per BTC because I want to purchase a property to live in soon.

  I'd recommend against posting personally identifiable information like this online as it could put you at risk. Those specific figures could used to track you down by employees at your crypto exchange, etc.

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  centrelink on 13/04/2023 - 15:59

  I dunno ma. I don’t think Australians are that innovative to be involved in crypto annd give financial andvice. and I still say trade in cryptocurrency with bots and still in profit.

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  Cluster on 13/04/2023 - 16:09

  +5

  When the price goes up:

  'My crypto is worth more (in fiat dollars). My investment is going up!'

  When the price goes down:

  'I'm in it for the freedom / tech / bringing down the banking system. You don't lose unless you sell. Diamond hands. 1 BTC still equals 1 BTC.

  • 

    lostgoat on 13/04/2023 - 16:18

    +1

    Cmon I think this time OP got it right with all crypto coins being oversold . I think this time the roller coaster is going to go on a bumpy ride upwards.

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  CocaKoala on 13/04/2023 - 16:41

  +1

  Another pathetic pump and dump parasite trying their hand at the old scam.

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  [Deactivated] on 13/04/2023 - 17:52

  +1

  These posts and repetitive denial-feuled back and forths from pro & anti crpyto fanatics every time the market goes up or down are getting more boring every year.

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  AsSeenOnTv on 13/04/2023 - 18:02

  +2

  Although this is certainly not the first time I have seen this, it still concerns me that markets are full of people who don't understand that this is a zero sum game (at best). Crypto has very little practical use and generates no economic output therefore any gains made by some are directly funded by the loss of others.

  Now these losses may not have been realized yet as people will still be holding coins with a market value but they have no underlying value.

  Having said that crypto is not alone in this situation. Gold and property both share these attributes to a similar or lesser extent.

  So good luck to you I say. I certainly won't be investing in crypto mainly out of. Principled objection but plenty of others will to their determent or benefit.

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  GrueHunter on 13/04/2023 - 18:39

  +3

  Bitcoin has penetrated the $30k USD

  So people who bought in November 2021 have only lost…just over half of their money?

  Such win

  Strange how you're deadly silent when it's wallowing around in the gutter, and how your definition of "out of the gutter" is "back to where it was in June 2022"

  And July 2021

  And January 2021

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 22:20

    +1

    Someone who purchased the median house in Sydney in March 2022 is now over 61% down. Some people are in negative equity, which means they've lost 100% of their equity, they've lost everything, the bank owns 100+% of their property.

    Wow such win! Many wows!

    Tesla $407 $180 55.774% decrease
    Meta $378 $214 43.3862% decrease
    Sydney median house $1403154 $1230581 −13.3% actual decrease is 61.4947% due to leverage
    Sydney median apartment $833815 $776780 -8.7% actual decrease would be more due to leverage

    For property prices, you have to take leverage into account, for example, let's say I bought a house at the median price, $1403154, I paid $280,630.80 (20% deposit) plus $61,684.40 stamp duty, disregarding all other costs, with the drop of $172,573, it means I only have $108,057.8 equity left in my property. That's a 61.4947% decrease in my net wealth, treating stamp duty as a sunk cost and disregarding all other property costs.

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:35

      +1

      Someone who purchased the median house in Sydney in March 2022 is now over 61% down.

      No one purchases a median house, they purchase a specific house which can go up or down independently of the median.

      But yes, you’ve discovered property is a spectacularly shit asset if you only hold it for one year like someone insane.

      Keep in mind many people qualify for stamp duty waivers or even no longer need to pay it in NSW. The people buying median houses aren’t doing it fully leveraged either, entrants into the market without significant equity buy cheaper homes. And despite all that, they can still lose money on property, despite it actually having enormous utility value, unlike the negatively valuable crypto.

      Some people will lose money in houses, almost everyone loses value on crypto.

      • 

        techlead on 14/04/2023 - 21:07

        But yes, you’ve discovered property is a spectacularly shit asset if you only hold it for one year like someone insane.

        And yet people are laughing at Bitcoin because it fell in a similar timeframe? You just undermined your own premise, you want people to hodl property when it goes down, but not hodl Bitcoin?

        Keep in mind many people qualify for stamp duty waivers or even no longer need to pay it in NSW

        I know all about that, you ain't gonna qualify for any stamp duty waivers for an established house worth $1.4 mil lmao. The full exemption cut off is $650k and there's a concessional rate for $650k to $800k. There aren't many houses for $800k in Sydney, plus my example was $1.4 mil, so no waiver not even a concessional rate applies here.

        For some properties, a very small number, you can opt for an annual tax instead of stamp duty. In any case, that's why I put the stamp duty amount as a sunk cost, its not in the percentage calculation.

        Some people will lose money in houses, almost everyone loses value on crypto.

        That is demonstrably false

    • 

      illusion99 on 14/04/2023 - 08:04

      Why are you picking only assets that have gone down as a comparison? There have been heaps of assets that have gone up.

      The following shares on the ASX have more than doubled over the last year. Lovisa, Accent, IPD, New Hope

      • 

        filmer on 14/04/2023 - 13:06

        Not only that, I wouldn't be surprised if most people who don't believe bitcoin is worth anything, also thought those companies were well and truly overvalued.

      • 

        techlead on 14/04/2023 - 21:01

        +1

        It depends on your comparison timeframe. I've never heard of these stocks you have listed.

        I just checked New Hope, are you seriously comparing Bitcoin with this dog of a stock? According to the ASX, its trading range from 2004 - 2023 is $0.45 - $6.30. While Bitcoin is $0.01 to $69000 USD. Its not even in the same universe.

        • 

          illusion99 on 14/04/2023 - 22:40

          @techlead: What does Bitcoin have to do with Tesla, Meta or houses? Did you just pick random assets to compare to?

          • 

            techlead on 15/04/2023 - 18:44

            @illusion99: What would you compare Bitcoin with then?

            • 

              illusion99 on 15/04/2023 - 19:09

              @techlead: Because it looks like you just picked some random assets that went down to compare Bitcoin to in order to say Bitcoin is better. And I said why don’t you pick some random assets that have gone up to compare to? And then I listed some random assets. Why don’t you compare Bitcoin to a rock in the park? A rock in the park has probably gone down in value so therefore Bitcoin is better than a rock.

              Plus interesting that you refuse to reply about why you picked Tesla, Meta and houses to compare Bitcoin to.

              • 

                techlead on 15/04/2023 - 19:17

                @illusion99: You are right, there's really no "right" way to pick assets for comparison.

                Generally I like to pick from these general asset classes, commodities (usually gold), Shares (Meta, Tesla) and properties.

                I picked Meta and Tesla because they are large market cap stocks, not saying they are representative of all stocks. I pick property because I keep hearing from friends and the mainstream media that its the "best form of investment", look at all these people getting rich and retiring early from property.

                Like I said before, which other asset do you want me to a comparison with and I can take a look. I'm very open minded and investment agnostic actually, if I can see that property will make more money, I'd more be more than happy to invest in property. I was about to in 2013 after everyone including my parents, family and friends all said invest in property. I did my own research and disagree and decided on Bitcoin and it worked out.

    • 

      GrueHunter on 14/04/2023 - 20:54

      -1

      cool story

      call me when you can live in your btc

      • 

        techlead on 14/04/2023 - 20:58

        -1

        I will live in my BTC soon, but I wouldn't call you.

        I've already liquidated some BTC to get $2.5 mil AUD cash to pay my taxes this year and purchase a house to live in.

        • 

          illusion99 on 14/04/2023 - 22:41

          +1

          @techlead: Awesome flex to random internet people

        • 

          Frayin on 15/04/2023 - 10:28

          @techlead: So you're buying a house that you will live in, with some of that 2.5 million AUD?

          Why would you not just liquidate enough for a deposit and utilise passive income to pay the mortgage? Buying a house out right is a terrible ROI.

          • 

            illusion99 on 15/04/2023 - 19:12

            @Frayin: Because he is so rich it doesn’t matter what things cost anymore. He just buy whatever he wants at whatever price regardless of if it’s a good ROI or not because of the Bitcoin gods. Isn’t that what his whole post is about? Bitcoin is the best. I am so rich.

    • 

      DingoBilly on 15/04/2023 - 10:12

      -1

      This is such a dumb metric.

      If you invested in certain stocks you could have tripled your money in a year. By your logic stocks are therefore better than bitcoin no? Why would I buy bitcoin when I could have bought c3.ai Inc stocks and made a 200% return in 1 year?

      Otherwise happy for you to concede you are wrong.

      • 

        illusion99 on 15/04/2023 - 19:14

        I think his logic is that Bitcoin is the best thing ever and everyone should only invest in Bitcoin and nothing else. Look how rich I am because of Bitcoin. Therefore Bitcoin is the only worthwhile thing in life

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  justgooddeals on 13/04/2023 - 19:41

  +6

  Fools and their money are easily parted.

  Where’s Rektrading?

  Cleaning toilets ?

  • 

    lostgoat on 13/04/2023 - 21:23

    +2

    Don't tell me he finally found some good crap ?

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  Maglia Nera on 13/04/2023 - 20:54

  +2

  which can take its price to $100k, $200k and beyond.

  and equally plausible it could go to $10,000, $2000 and below

  • 

    SpicyStew on 13/04/2023 - 21:05

    not quite.

    the question is, how low can it technically go when there are so many inaccessible coins due to loss of key .. etc?

    21m btc is the total minable not total that will be in circulation.

    in nakamoto design theory, the more loss of coins equals higher the price action.

    but I beg to differ on that theory, after a threshold of loss. scarcity can only go so far.

    to be fair though, it doing well for a 1st gen legacy coin.

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:42

      Zero, it can go to zero. Not only that, you can say without a shadow of a doubt it will eventually go to zero. (For potentially quite large values of ‘eventually’).

      There may be finite ‘Bitcoins’, but coincidentally reaching close to that number makes it harder and harder to sustain the chain itself, an increasingly expensive and inefficient network by design with incentives having to be more and more directed towards transactional costs rather than ‘mining’, in a world with infinite currencies.

      The sole sustainment of bitcoin is faith that it will increase in value, something even smaller less sophisticated Ponzi schemes have used to sustain their paper values for decades.

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 22:17

    Not quite, its definitely not "equally [as] plausible" that Bitcoin would go to $10k and $2k versus $100k and $200k USD.

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:43

      -1

      It’s guaranteed it will go to $0 ‘one day’, everything else is uncertain.

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  jaffar on 13/04/2023 - 21:02

  +1

  Good job with your crypto profits..

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 22:16

    Thanks

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  Bunnyburger on 13/04/2023 - 22:25

  +2

  Hurry! We have to say bad things about Batcoin!

  • 

    techlead on 13/04/2023 - 22:28

    +2

    Standard tired talking points, its not tangible, can't rub two BTC together, ponzi scheme (without knowing the definition of a ponzi scheme), uses too much energy etc etc.

    • 

      JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:46

      -1

      Reality doesn’t change because you get tired of it. If you don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme you either don’t understand how Bitcoin works, or how Ponzi schemes work. The only difference between bitcoin and a typical Ponzi scheme is that it’s an open secret and there millions of people running the scheme.

      • 

        techlead on 14/04/2023 - 09:55

        +3

        a typical Ponzi scheme is that it’s an open secret and there millions of people running the scheme

        This can't exist. A Ponzi scheme only exists in secret, it can't be an open secret, and it cannot be run by millions of people lol. Just the fact that early investors benefit does not make it a Ponzi scheme, otherwise, Apple, Google, Amazon, property are all ponzi schemes.

      • 

        techlead on 14/04/2023 - 09:59

        +1

        I say tired because all those points have been debunked and disproven.

        • 

          JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 11:27

          -1

          @techlead: ‘Debunked’ lol. You stick your fingers in you ears and go ‘na na na na na’. They’re plain fact. You can deny reality all you want. Because you say it doesn’t are it so.

          There’s no requirement for a Ponzi scheme to be secret and if that’s your best argument against it, it’s not the debunking you think it is.

          Other companies actually represent something in the real world, if they don’t then they’re also scams. Those companies have customers, not just investors. I know believing in the future of bitcoin predisposes you to think people are stupid but even an idiot knows that ‘early investors benefit’ isn’t the defining feature of a Ponzi scheme, that it conducts no actual business other than the selling of the stake in it is.

          • 

            techlead on 14/04/2023 - 11:31

            @JumperC:

            There’s no requirement for a Ponzi scheme to be secret

            Give me another example of a Ponzi scheme that is not secret then.

            You are not giving an concrete examples, just broad sweeping statements. "Other companies actually represent something in the real world". What does "represent something in the real world" mean? Take Meta parent company of Facebook, does that represent something in the real world? What about Twitter?

            Secrecy is a key component of a Ponzi scheme, because without it, everyone will rush for the exits, I can give you a long list of Ponzi schemes in Crypto and secret was a key part.

            Bitconnect was a confirmed crypto Ponzi scheme. Celsius and FTX are alleged, the truth will come out eventually.

            • 

              JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 13:11

              @techlead:

              What does "represent something in the real world" mean? Take Meta parent company of Facebook, does that represent something in the real world? What about Twitter?

              Oh boy, define the real world. You know, staff buildings, servers, IP, things you can sell for money to other people to get your money back other than shares in the company itself. This is a pretty simple concept, can you really not grasp it or are you being deliberately obtuse?

              Congratulations Bitcoin is the first publicly observed Ponzi scheme, what great advanced technology has wrought. Detaching people from reality.

              Secrecy is a key component of a Ponzi scheme, because without it, everyone will rush for the exits,

              You’re making the assumption people are rational and informed. It’s been proven time and again people can remain irrational for a very long time. The internet has brought the ability for people all over the world to sustain others irrationally, and Bitcoin is just complex enough many people don’t realize they’re irrational. After all, if you tell someone it’s a scam, they won’t believe you and will invest anyway. We’ve basically removed the need for secrecy. People are morons, Bitcoin is the undisputed proof.

          • 

            swolem8 on 14/04/2023 - 22:21

            +3

            @JumperC: I don't think you know what a Ponzi is.

            Coming into this as a completely impartial observer - and someone who owns 0 Bitcoin.

            You seem to ignore there is tangible measures by which you can measure Bitcoins reach or value. Bitcoin is a "currency" per se, and a newly established one. Its value isn't necessarily like gold, which you can use (who does though that buys?), etc. Its value lies in its network, like any currency. The more people/wallets/owners of it, the more accept its use/existence for use, hence it gains value. Much like Facebook or Twitter. If people don't have an account/use it, the "social" platform has no value.

            The further reality of things is - the technology is still in its infancy, even though significant gains are being made.

            The internet is a network that gained value by everyone using it. Letterman was laughing at a guy in an interview talking about how one day we could watch/listen to sports game over it - he responded "why don't I just use the radio"… 20 years later, and it is nearly the only way we consume sports and movies…

            Australia seems full of tall poppy syndrome. Hate hearing about how someone has done well - and speaks of their experience. Congratulations @techlead on your profits.
            It is always best to be curious of new technology even if you think its stupid. I thought instagram and tiktok were stupid, and people make millions off that. Once in a lifetime money making investment opportunities come along far more often now then before. Stay curious and dabble if you can is my opinion. NFA.

            • 

              JumperC on 15/04/2023 - 00:51

              @swolem8:

              Its value lies in its network, like any currency.

              Well you don’t own any of the network by owning bitcoin. So it’s value is 0 by that measure. And no, not like any currency, other currencies are backed by powers of taxation, militaries etc. They can and have collapsed to zero, but are less likely to do so due those aforementioned advantages over crypto.

              The more people/wallets/owners of it, the more accept its use/existence for use, hence it gains value.

              This isn’t exactly a revelation. Demand = increase in price. But there’s infinite cryptocurrencies. The demand is based on a belief that it has value, nothing more. I’m not arguing that belief isn’t real, I’m stating the obvious reality that’s the sole reason it has any value.

              Much like Facebook or Twitter.

              Facebook and Twitter sell advertising, when you buy bitcoin you don’t get to sell advertising. It has zero utility just sitting there. It’s completely fungible. They have staff, servers, assets, IP, income. Bitcoin itself has nothing. You don’t own anything by owning the bitcoin. It’s as much like Facebook and Twitter as a belch is like beer.

              The internet is a network that gained value by everyone using it.

              And the internet is heavily monetized. You can argue some crypto potentially has the ability to be monetized (though it’s more like a step backwards vs alternatives) but not bitcoin. It’s network has no use other than to transfer bitcoin and it’s really bad at that. Bitcoin is like introducing dial up and saying it’s an new technology when we have broadband.

              Australia seems full of tall poppy syndrome. Hate hearing about how someone has done well - and speaks of their experience.

              It’s not tall poppy syndrome to call out someone whose misleading and illegal advice can and has cost people significant money. I congratulate them on their success also, but condemn their ignorant, narcissistic, malevolent misinformation.

              It is always best to be curious of new technology even if you think its stupid.

              For sure, if people were more curious instead of taking the one in a million success story as representative they’d realize who stupid bitcoin is. People see others making money and don’t stop to work out how it works, what it is, or how many have lost just as much.

              Will people make money on stupid things? For sure, but if they’re this stupid, more will lose.

              A lot of people don’t seem to even know what bitcoin is, or there’d be zero debate it’s a Ponzi scheme, the fact people insist it isn’t is proof publicly obvious Ponzi schemes can still find suckers.

              • 

                techlead on 15/04/2023 - 15:45

                +1

                @JumperC:

                Well you don’t own any of the network by owning bitcoin. So it’s value is 0 by that measure.

                The network enables you to make transfers and Bitcoin represents the value you transfer. No one "owns" the Bitcoin network, it is "owned" by all participates. Updates to this network is done by consensus, eg, a proposal to increase the 21 mil limit to BTC can come up and if approved by a developer/editor, it must then be adopted by 95% of miners in order to be implemented.

                hey have staff, servers, assets, IP, income. Bitcoin itself has nothing.

                How do you think the Bitcoin network functions? The miners and those who run the nodes which holds the full Bitcoin blockchain are the servers for the Bitcoin network. As for IP, its open source, its code is readily obtainable, you can get it right now. Income for the Bitcoin network would be fees paid by users, each transaction costs a little bit of Bitcoin and its an auction process to get your transaction processed during heavily volume periods. Miners who secure the network, validate transaction, hold the blockchain etc are rewarded with the block reward plus transaction fees. This is an incentive for these people who run the "infrastructure" of Bitcoin to continue doing it. I used to be one of these people, until you needed ASIC miners so I moved to ETH mining.

                It’s not tall poppy syndrome to call out someone whose misleading and illegal advice can and has cost people significant money.

                Its not misleading, everything I've said can be verified just like the Bitcoin code and blockchain, not is it illegal nor is it advice. None of what I've posted is remotely close to financial advice. Is this article financial advice? https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-best-homes-for-sale-in-sy… Its telling me to buy property and where to buy, that's illegal financial advice, right? Call ASIC right now!

                A lot of people don’t seem to even know what bitcoin is

                Exactly, you are one of those "people" lmao, that's what I'm trying to change. Have a read of the whitepaper, by saying Bitcoin has no "infrastructure" tells me you don't know much about Bitcoin, how do you think it functions? With magic?

                there’d be zero debate it’s a Ponzi scheme

                What makes you think Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme? Break it down into its elements. Just because new buyers pay for old holder's profits, does not make it a Ponzi scheme.

                Pretty much every investment has this mechanism. I just finished inspecting a few properties, the vendors all expect to be paid profits, eg there's this property which the vendor bought in 2017 for $2.1 mil, now they want $3 mil for it, with no renovations. If I offer and paid $3 mil, did I just participate in a Ponzi scheme?

              • 

                swolem8 on 16/04/2023 - 10:17

                +2

                @JumperC: You don't own part of many networks that exist. The road system is a network that people benefit from by people following and adhering to the rules making it work and easy for us to commute safely, etc. Not all value is derived from owning a portion of a network. Just one example above - but there are more examples of not owning a network and benefiting than the other.

                Demand isn't the only thing that plays a part in value. Yes - there are a million cryptocurrencies. Why aren't those doing well? Network effect, historical relevance, first mover advantage, now - use cases, etc.
                It isn't just "belief" lol… A network or large group/ecosystem of people agreeing on value is a huge part. Setting a standard, or industry standard is also it.

                Facebook and Twitter sell advertising sure. What would it be worth with no user base? This isn't a chicken or egg situation. They built their value, or value prop based off of their network, not the other way around. Facebook and Twitter weren't advertising companies first.
                Bitcoin/crypto isn't a company… yet you're comparing it like one. The Australian Dollar doesn't have income, staff, revenue, etc.
                You do own something by owning Bitcoin - you own a Bitcoin, which has a limited/finite amount available. It has a set price that is dictated by a market. You may not like that it does, but, it does.

                Your analogies and comparisons are a bit all over the place. Bitcoin like dial up when broadband already exists? I'm not going to search the whole thread, but didn't you bring up the VHS vs DVD example or Betamax tapes or whatever it was?
                First mover advantage is real. Bitcoin has that.
                Bitcoin has its issues, but it also solves a lot of issues for certain people/users.
                Just because it isn't backed/government controlled - doesn't mean it isn't a viable option for what it is. Our money in banks is backed by currencies that can be printed infinitely… Which we are seeing the results of now.
                Bitcoin is older tech in a space of more advanced stuff? Cool. A simplified option doing more things right is often a better product/option than one full of features doing not much right…

                Misleading/illegal advice? Eh. If you are taking anything said in here as more of a gloat/celebration/proved you wrong type, that is on you. Self accountability and responsibility goes a long way too.

                Yes - it is always best to be curious with new tech.

                Ponzi… eh. You're letting a market set and dictate the price. If people deem it to be worth 0 at some point, it still isn't a ponzi. The market, its users and the network of people, as of now have deemed it to be worth $30k or whatever it is at this point.

                • 

                  techlead on 16/04/2023 - 13:27

                  +1

                  @swolem8:

                  You don't own part of many networks that exist.

                  Another example would be the internet. Who owns the internet?

                  Eh. If you are taking anything said in here as more of a gloat/celebration/proved you wrong type

                  Guilty as charged, but I'd like to also add in education. Yes, it is some kind of gloat, celebration and proved you wrong type of post, but I also want to open people's mind a little, be the catalyst for them to go out and do a little bit more independent research and critically think for themselves. I'm not encouraging anyone to do anything apart from doing more independent research and critically think.

                  I always find the Ponzi angle fascinating. Its demonstrably NOT a ponzi, but people have their blinkers on that they can't see it. That's why I compare it to the property market, because if Bitcoin is a Ponzi, then by the same logic, so is the property market to prove my point. I don't believe crypto not property are ponzi schemes.

• 

  yoshi864 on 14/04/2023 - 00:56

  +9

  I feel like I'm on both sides of the fence with this one.

  While I agree Bitcoin will go up and it's a good investment, posts like these are wasted on Ozbargain. To be honest, they have little value to begin with.

  It just devolves into the same old sh*t every time, and nothing changes. Maximalists stay maximalist, minimalists stay minimalist.

  I think attempted FOMO-generating posts like these don't legitimise cryptocurrency in a meaningful way (the opposite, in fact). I think Bitcoin can stay up under it's own steam, and doesn't need posts like this to carry it. Bitcoin crossed $30k AUD? Cool bro, it's nothing new. How about sharing or encouraging discussion about something more specific or interesting that's happening in the crypto space?

  Posts like this make you look like a swindler. I'm not saying you are one, but that's the impression you're giving. If you really want what's best for Bitcoin, perhaps consider a better way to spread the love than simply saying "Ha, price crossed X mark! I told you so!"

  Just my 2 cents

  • 

    RatBargain on 14/04/2023 - 03:30

    Curious if I’ve missed clever btc bull rationale

    Not so much gloat & anecdote

    • 

      techlead on 14/04/2023 - 11:04

      +1

      The BTC bull rationale hasn't changed from 2009. Bitcoin was born out of the ashes of the GFC.

      Embedded in the genesis block of the Bitcoin block chain, is this headline, The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. Does that sound familiar? Its funny how 14 years later in 2023, nothing has changed, look at what happened with SVB, Signature bank and the collapse of a 166 year old bank, Credit Suisse. History do not repeat, it rhymes.

      That remains the biggest bull rationale for Bitcoin, since 2009, it has never went down, while banks are collapsing to this day.

      • 

        JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 11:36

        Bitcoin, since 2009, it has never went down

        Lol it goes down frequently.

        If you’re saying it is above the value it had on creation ($0) that’s not a big boast…

        The pandemic proved it’s no safe haven, given it lost more money than anyone has lost in any bank run since 2009. Neither of those bank collapses resulted in any depositors losing money, while bitcoin exchange after bitcoin exchange has, not to mention all the bitcoins lost and stolen.

        You said it. Banks get bailed out. No one bails out bitcoin.

        • 

          techlead on 14/04/2023 - 11:38

          +1

          @JumperC:

          Lol it goes down frequently.

          I meant the network, I'm not talking about the price. The Bitcoin network has never gone down, I'm not referring to the price. No asset never goes down lol, that would be absurd.

          You said it. Banks get bailed out. No one bails out bitcoin.

          The point is that it doesn't need to be bailed out.

• 

  neonlight on 14/04/2023 - 07:58

  AI will crack bitcoin one day

  • 

    TEER3X on 14/04/2023 - 09:20

    +1

    I think you mean quantum computing, in which case nothing will be safe, until quantum computing security measures are put in place.

    • 

      JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 11:38

      As much as Bitcoin is a scam it uses SHA-256 which is quantum resistant. Of course the mechanisms people use to transfer it are all still vulnerable.

      • 

        TEER3X on 16/04/2023 - 10:26

        Currently safe but even SHA-256 will be breakable one day.

• 

  banco83 on 14/04/2023 - 08:11

  +1

  Bitcoin is ponzi that never collapses..

  • 

    JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 11:39

    +1

    .. completely.. yet..

• 

  banco83 on 14/04/2023 - 08:28

  How much Bitcoin is enough considering there are only a limited available compared to world population. On the other hand it's so expensive.. do you think buying few $100s will be worth it?

  An asset that can be stored privately digitally and accepted all over the world has some appeal to it .. can't think of anything else which is similar other than gold but too risky to store personally…

  Have been looking at this space and regret not acting sooner.. the price is such a turn off now.. 45k 😭

  • 

    mitchalbrown on 14/04/2023 - 10:33

    +1

    each bitcoin can be denominated in smaller units called Satoshi's. This is similar to how a dollar can be denominated into smaller units callent "cents". 1 bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshi's. so if you multiply that by the 21 million bitcoin hard cap you end up with 2.1 quadrillion satoshi's. so yeah i think there would be enough for everyone to transact in this medium.

    you've hit the nail on the head… self custody, easily transported, and cheap to transfer value from 1 person to another. In the traditional financial system transferring money internationally over the SWIFT network is expensive and takes days. Using bitcoin network its cheap and takes minutes. Also, no one can stop you from transferring that value.

    As governments start to deploy CBDC's, decentralised currency like bitcoin will become more valuable as it will be a way to remove your wealth from the direct control of the government who at anytime could sieze your cash, place unreasonable conditions on your cash savings or continue to davalue it through relentless printing. These are all things that we don't think can happen to us in a comfortable country like Australia and maybe it never will… I hope not. I never want to live in a world where bitcoin is worth $1 million as it means civilisation has gone way off the rails… but the best way to keep governments in check is to have an alternative system to go to if they overstep their mark.

    so…. think of it less about "is it too late for me to make money on this" and think of it more as "have I got a way to store a portion of my wealth (not all your wealth) in an asset that is not within reach of the governments arbitrary policies"…

    Remember - with a CBDC there is nothing stopping the government from setting time limits on you to spend your money in your savings before its gone if the situation arose where economic stimulus was required.

    • 

      techlead on 14/04/2023 - 10:52

      +3

      CBDC are scary, I would avoid its use as much as possible. With a click of the mouse, your savings can disappear, puff, as if it never existed.

• 

  Sinnerator on 14/04/2023 - 08:39

  OP sniffs himself

• 

  bigbadboogieman on 14/04/2023 - 08:53

  +2

  Bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem. Good thing I don't have that problem

  • 

    techlead on 14/04/2023 - 10:57

    +1

    You should check your financial privilege, just because you and I may not have a problem doesn't mean other people around the world doesn't.

    Bitcoin is a god send for some people around the world. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/check-your-financial-pri…

    Bitcoin is a solution for oppressive regimes and/or unstable fiat currencies.

    • 

      bigbadboogieman on 14/04/2023 - 11:39

      thats why I said, good thing I don't have that problem.

  • 

    mitchalbrown on 14/04/2023 - 10:58

    +1

    for you and I here in Aus… yes maybe… but in Nigeria where the government has banned US dollars and are forcing people into it's government controlled CBDC sh*tcoin bitcoin adoption is sky rocketing as it's a safe haven for these poor people…

    • 

      JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 12:23

      They haven’t banned USD in Nigeria they’ve banned transferring the local currency into USD. People can and do make transactions in USD and it’s encouraged for tourists to bring them in for the same reason they ban locals taking them out. Bitcoin is a great way for the countries elite to transfer their wealth out, further impoverishing the citizens.

• 

  TEER3X on 14/04/2023 - 09:22

  If I had time I would be running some regressions, as I think Bitcoin is a potentially a leading indicator of global growth, or something. Would be interesting to see it's correlations.

  • 

    techlead on 14/04/2023 - 09:57

    I think its more of a proxy for risk on investing at the moment. Although this may change in the future.

• 

  aznbob on 14/04/2023 - 10:46

  The fact that the ATO treats crypto as an assest investment says ALOT.

  • 

    techlead on 14/04/2023 - 10:51

    +1

    Which are? What does that say about crypto? I think they just want their cut, that's all, so they will legitimize it because they want to clip the ticket.

    • 

      lostgoat on 14/04/2023 - 10:55

      I think we all know countries where you can cash your crypto far away from prying eyes lol .
      Of course trying to follow some special trails are impossible.

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