Bitcoin over $30k USD again, proving naysayers wrong once again

techlead on 12/04/2023 - 11:47
Last edited 16/04/2023 - 16:51

Bitcoin has penetrated the $30k USD and appears to be holding, looking at the charts, it looks like the beginning of another bull market which can take its price to $100k, $200k and beyond. Goes without saying, but still this is my own opinion only, not financial advice. I'm just opining on the potential future price of BTC, it may or may not eventuate, I don't have control over the price of BTC. Do not rely on my posts and comments, its for educational/entertainment/lively debating purposes only.

I look at other investment classes, shares, bonds, property, its all doom and gloom. This is why I've decided against buying an investment property, I just do get where the attraction is from. I'm investment vehicle agnostic, I just want the best vehicle to make the most returns. Of course risk is very hard set, and some investment vehicles are much much more susceptible to regulation and other shocks. Take the property market for example, there is a range of regulation changes, which governments can implement which will cause it to break, look at China as a very good example, a rule change reining in how much debt developers can take on, rippled through the market and broke it.

Cryptocurrencies are not immune, however they are much much more resilient to these regulation changes. Of course, it will be affected by it if governments attempt to ban it or otherwise restrict it.

I find it very funny reading through https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/, which shows a collection of what naysayers have said throughout the years and Bitcoin has proven them all wrong. Take a look at this from Dan Pena, he said this when Bitcoin dropped from $6k to $3k and he was doing a little victory rant, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX21rnDV-oo. Now Bitcoin has proven him wrong, and he has egg all over his face. Its so funny, everything he said about Bitcoin turned out to be wrong.

Personally, I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013. I knew about its existence shortly after it was created and I read and understood the whitepaper, but didn't believe it would work. This changed in 2013, happy to be proven wrong and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have allowed me to accumulate a nice small fortune. I've done calculations on the alternatives, if I didn't buy Bitcoin and other cryptos from 2013, eg purchased an investment property, purchased apple shares etc, and none could have allowed me to amass my net wealth today. So with 20/20 hindsight, I'm glad I made the right decision back in 2013.

Has your perception about cryptocurrency changed over the years?

Update - adding in some common points people put in the comments.

Crypto is a zero sum game. For you to make money, someone needs to lose money.

This is not true, shares and property are not zero sum games, hence crypto which is another asset just like shares and property is not a zero sum game.
Here's a recent trade I did. I purchased 20.82 BTC late 2022 at $16688 USD per BTC, I sold it over the last few days at an average price of around $30100 USD per BTC because I want to purchase a property to live in soon.

In this scenario, who lost money?
1. The people who sold it to me late 2022
2. me or
3. the people who bought it off me a few days ago. BTC is $30184 USD at the time of writing.

Bitcoin is based on "thin air", its not backed by anything.

Bitcoin was created in the aftermath of the GFC, which is either forgotten or just not experienced by people. Bitcoin's value is based on its decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network, which is a god send for people in oppressive regimes with unstable fiat currencies. It is also based on trust, through its open sourced code.

Much of our economy is based on trust without the transparency. We trust that our RBA gives us accurate data on how much money it conjures up from "thin air". Unlike Bitcoin, we can't easily verify it, how do we know they haven't printed a trillion AUD?

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

  • GG57 on 12/04/2023 - 11:50
    +2

    … can take its price to $100k, $200k and beyond….

    Is that AUD or USD?

      • GG57 on 12/04/2023 - 11:53
        +74

        looking at the charts, it looks like the beginning of another bull market which can take its price to $100k, $200k and beyond.

        It seems that you haven't retired from predicting the price?

          • Antikythera on 13/04/2023 - 00:31
            +6

            @techlead: wouldn't 5k to 200k be a more likely "huge price range"?

          • Kangal on 13/04/2023 - 00:45
            +3

            @techlead: As a big advocate, can you refute, explain, or counter the points that was raised about this topic from this specific video?

            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ORdWE_ffirg&t=2s&pp=ygUKamFtZX…

            • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 09:49

              @Kangal: I will have a watch when I have time.

              I can see NFT in the title, I totally agree what NFT has been overhyped and some are downright scams. I've not bought any NFTs and don't plan to buy some, unless the price changes. I don't think its worth the sky high prices, even now after the crash.

              • Moral hazard on 13/04/2023 - 09:58

                @techlead: Here's another one for your review:
                https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nVRSAjkDR2Q

                • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 10:00
                  +1

                  @Moral hazard: Thanks, Looks interesting. Top comment, "I'm convinced that NFTs' primary purpose is money laundering", I don't disagree lol. I don't see the value in NFT, I'm not going to pay more than $5 for a Jpeg and that's only if its nice.

              • Kangal on 16/04/2023 - 13:33
                +1

                @techlead: Any follow-up to your previous comment ?
                It's not too-long and a pretty easy/uncomplicated viewing. I haven't seen anyone properly address that video from the crypto team (for lack of a better word). Does that mean the points raised hold merit, and the conclusions reached accurate.

    • MrThing on 14/04/2023 - 20:21
      +2

      100k gumnuts said blinky bill

    • ffhound on 16/04/2023 - 14:37
      -1

      Probably Zimbabwe dollars - and we know what they are worth.

  • GG57 on 12/04/2023 - 11:52
    +63

    Has your perception about cryptocurrency changed over the years?

    No.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 11:52

      What's your perception?

      • GG57 on 12/04/2023 - 11:53
        +60

        Still the same

        • DashCam AKA Rolts on 12/04/2023 - 20:20
          +30

          Tulips………

          • DashCam AKA Rolts on 12/04/2023 - 20:22
            -2

            @DashCam AKA Rolts: 🌷🌷🌷🌷🌷🌷🌷

          • CommanderCrumbcake on 13/04/2023 - 06:24
            +11

            @DashCam AKA Rolts: Tulip ‘mania’ only existed for three years. Bitcoin has been around for 14.

            At what point do the tulip analogy become redundant?

            • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 09:16
              +5

              @CommanderCrumbcake: Also, Tulip mania was one cycle, to the moon then crashed down to Earth.

              Bitcoin is now into its 4th cycle, each one higher than the one before. If you graphed the trend of Bitcoin's price since 2009, its a pretty steep upwards graph, nothing like Tulip mania.

              Comparisons with Tulips probably hold true back in 2010 or even 2012, but definitely not 2023, we can very safely say Bitcoin is nothing like Tulip mania anymore.

            • mitchalbrown on 13/04/2023 - 12:36
              -2

              @CommanderCrumbcake: Probably at the point that it was barely a thing when you actually read up on Tulip mania… it was the equivelent of a bunch of wall street traders buying options and trading those options until they became overvalued and worthless… It had absolutely no impact on markets, everyday people and business. It was just a weird little moment in dutch financial market history. Like you say… after 14 years and multiple cycles we can easily rest this analogy.

              • JumperC on 15/04/2023 - 01:37
                +2

                @mitchalbrown: Ponzi schemes have lasted many decades. Bitcoin didn’t have much widespread notoriety until 2017. 14 years is a blink of an eye.

                Bitcoin could blink out of existence in a month, or it could last 100 years. Neither is more likely than the other. There’s no fundamentals.

                Tulips were tulips regardless of the market, Bitcoin is much harder for people to understand and the number of potential buyers is much larger, saturation and collapse should take much much longer. Ultimately there’s a sunk cost in bitcoin, if you’re caught holding it when the market crashes, you sell only if you have to or have no faith in a rebound. Real assets tend to have holding costs, and/or wear out. Short of losing access there’s no mechanism for your bitcoin to disappear, though the only mechanism for it to rise in value is for people to believe it will.

                The question is how many decades will it take for people to realize the emperor has no clothes?

                Just look since Jan 2021 the S&P 500 is up 33% while bitcoins recent rally has only bought it level over that period. The S&P 500 is down less than 20% from all time highs while Bitcoin is down almost 50%. And that ignores shares have also issued dividends.

                Bitcoin seems to have settled into teenage status where it falls further and faster than shares but rises slower. It’s no longer a ‘secret’ people are discovering en masse and have FOMO driving irrational exuberance.

                • mitchalbrown on 15/04/2023 - 11:35
                  -3

                  @JumperC: Just because YOU don’t see it’s value and YOU don’t understand it’s fundamentals doesn’t mean it has none…

          • ffhound on 16/04/2023 - 14:38
            +4

            @DashCam AKA Rolts: At least tulips are worth something.

      • AustriaBargain on 12/04/2023 - 11:54
        +22

        It's a scheme that could permanently fall out of investor favour at any moment.

          • AustriaBargain on 12/04/2023 - 11:58
            +71

            @techlead: Because properties always have some base utility value, people can live in them. You can live in it. You can grow weed in it. You can't grow weed in a bitcoin. And gold is used in manufacturing, it's worn as jewellery, many world currencies are backed by it. Shares of a company are shares of a company, a real company offering real services or products and owns real assets. Bitcoin isn't built into anything essential except for proving itself but that stops being essential if the value of BTC goes to 0. Even with Beanie Babies the Babies were at least useful as cat toys after the scheme was over.

            • shaybisc on 12/04/2023 - 17:33
              +2

              @AustriaBargain: And you can eat tulips.

            • hailingstars on 14/04/2023 - 19:42

              @AustriaBargain: I'm sure a similar argument was once used for money (when it was first introduced).

              • AustriaBargain on 14/04/2023 - 19:49

                @hailingstars: In post war Germany they burned wheelbarrows of cash for warmth because it was cheaper than buying wood with it.

                • JumperC on 15/04/2023 - 01:42
                  +2

                  @AustriaBargain: Ironically the amount of heat bitcoin produces just to keep the network running could probably heat Germany several times over, albeit at a cost 4x that of a heat pump. Going to be interesting when bitcoin hits the limit and they have to tax transactions to keep the network viable.

          • liongalahad on 13/04/2023 - 01:12
            +24

            @techlead: BTC's value is just the value people give it. It has nearly no use. The only use is speculation. You buy hoping someone will buy back at a higher prices , there is absolutely nothing other than that. It's in fashion now but it could disappear and be a distant memory soon. Or it could well go to 100k or 200k, no one knows, exactly because there's absolutely nothing under it. And also because of the extreme volatility and total absence of fundamentals, it will never ever replace currency.

              • sakurashu on 13/04/2023 - 08:29
                +6

                @techlead: It's obvious to most people that the difference there for your first point is that another cryptocurrency could easily replace bitcoin for this purpose. A completely new housing dynamic where everyone lives in the sea isn't going to appear and replace traditional housing thereby giving another avenue to provide the same value?

                • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 09:25

                  @sakurashu:

                  another cryptocurrency could easily replace bitcoin for this purpose

                  Why hasn't it happened? If its that easy, it should have occurred already then. What gives a crypto its value is its network, perceived trust as well as the team of developers working on it. No other chain can beat Bitcoin on that, hence nothing has replaced Bitcoin because the market says nothing else provides the same value.

                  Replace traditional housing thereby giving another avenue to provide the same value?

                  A factor of housing is location, so an area could fall out of favour and people move out on a net basis thereby reducing its value. Look at all the mining towns in Perth.

              • liongalahad on 13/04/2023 - 09:49
                +13

                @techlead:

                1. Aaah the good old cryptobro chant. Lol. The value of BTC does not come from that, plus there are another thousands coins that can do that just as well. The value comes from people like you who for whatever reason think (hope) its going to go up so they buy it. The End.
                2. The greater fool theory applies to other investments yes, but fundamentals can help you decide where to invest. BTC has no fundamentals, it's ONLY fool's theory and speculation based on nothing other the good old chant about the decentralized censorship free network blah blah blah
                3. Credit Suisse is going down for a whole lot of different reasons, definitely not because if market speculation.
                4. Sure, like 2 tiny insignificant countries maybe. I'm talking about US,Europe, Australia..even Russia, which saw its ruble going down the sink is not using BTC extensively. It's just too risky, you could sell something today in BTC and tomorrow the BTC value could go down 30%
                • CommanderCrumbcake on 13/04/2023 - 16:56
                  -2

                  @liongalahad: “another thousands coins that can do that just as well”

                  Please provide a single example of one which does (I’ll save you the effort….. there isn’t).

                  Speed, secure (aka decentralised), scalable. There’s nil crypto asset which does those three things better than Bitcoin. In fact there’s not a single asset anywhere which does those three things better.

                  I’m not crypto evangelist. In fact I think the whole crypto space is full of fraudsters and lies. But I do admit Bitcoin, on its own, is a really interesting concept.

                  • liongalahad on 13/04/2023 - 18:32
                    +4

                    @CommanderCrumbcake: I'll give you 3: Ethereum, Solana, Cardano. They all can do what BTC does (so not that much).
                    Fast, secure, scalable (🎶cryptobro chanting sound🎶). In some cases they are better or much better than BTC. There are many more.

                  • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:53
                    +1

                    @CommanderCrumbcake: Even discounting the better crypto currencies others mentioned there are hard forks of Bitcoin itself, and potentially infinite copies of exactly the same code, none of which are any less useful if not for lower adoption. And there in is the key, 100% of Bitcoin’s value is in the adoption, itself a purely faith based outcome.

                    The difference between you and a crypto evangelist is they just misunderstand or misrepresent how it works, you don’t appear to know anything about the space at all.

                    Bitcoin isn’t exactly fast compared to even shitty systems. And it’s so poorly scalable it’s been rewritten so many times to attempt to keep up with its tiny tiny corner of the market. And it’s not secure by most measure as it’s public, the ole ‘beat him with a wrench’ attach has been used a multitude of times. Blockchain itself has some promise but it’s in most ways worse than any other system people can design beyond the decentralized ownership nature. The ASX just abandoned their blockchain project because it was stupid to use where decentralization of infrastructure ownership wasn’t a requirement.

                    And bitcoins decentralized network currently relies on ‘mining’ a tap that will be turned off at 21 million coins, and will need to be replaced by significant transaction costs, lest the whole network fall over. Somewhat ironically even that network is becoming more centralized over time as it becomes less worthwhile for individuals to participate, and thus changes to the network may eventually be able to be voted on (and thus decided by) by a smaller number of large players.

                    • mitchalbrown on 21/04/2023 - 12:14

                      @JumperC: Adoption is what allowed the usd to become the world base currency… the continued faith in it allows them to rack up unthinkable amounts of debt with almost no plan on how they would pay it back… don’t be so quick to write off the power of adoption and faith… mediums of exchange are really just adopted forms of faith.
                      It would only take enough people/countries to use Bitcoin to settle payments at that global base layer for it to be legitimised… maybe that will never happen… maybe another system might come and do it but most countries hate being beholden to the usd

                      • JumperC on 22/04/2023 - 06:00

                        @mitchalbrown: The adoption of the USD was driven by the absolutely massive industrial and military base in the US and it’s overall stability. It has real physical underlying properties. It’s not solely on a whim.

                        Of course they could destroy it in a minute, but only by removing its legal tender status. There’s only one US currency, and less currencies than countries. But there’s infinite cryptocurrencies. And the volatility of Bitcoin makes it spectacularly bad as a currency. No one wants to agree to trade something in a coin that could be worth twice as much or half as much in a year. The whole point of the USD is that it moves in value less than other currencies. It’s a polar opposite desired behaviour to an investment.

                        Bitcoin is fundamentally inferior at settling transactions and going to progressively become more expensive and slower as the final Bitcoins get closer to being issued.

                        Even with the huge number of dodgy and slightly more polished and less dodgy providers spending Bitcoin is still a huge pain in the ass, and increasingly so, not decreasing.

                        Most countries don’t care that much about being beholden to the USD, just the dodgy ones. The geopolitical consequences if they seperate from
                        it may make bitcoin itself worthless. Even though the USD is dominant, it’s far from the only currency used internationally.

                        Basically if Bitcoin is a good investment it’s a shitty currency. And if it’s a good currency it’s a shit investment. Since a it’s value as an investment comes from people not realising this, most people that buy it will be left holding the bag. Those that make money on it are the ones getting people to buy or sell it and taking a cut they cash out regularly.

                  • 1st-Amendment on 14/04/2023 - 17:10
                    +1

                    @CommanderCrumbcake:

                    Speed, secure (aka decentralised), scalable

                    It is none of those.
                    BTC transactions can fluctuate, sometime up to days, and that fluctuation is completely out of your control.
                    Secure and decentralised are different concepts. Pick a lane here. If my bank goes bankrupt my money is secured by the government. Who is securing your ponzicoin?
                    Scalable is a joke. BTC can only do 7 transactions a second max. The global economy is already doing over 1B/transactions a day and growing. Do you even know what these words mean?

                    In fact there’s not a single asset anywhere which does those three things better.

                    Well apart from cash…

                    But I do admit Bitcoin, on its own, is a really interesting concept.

                    Blockchain is an interesting concept, and once you understand how it works, you should realise that any particular implementation of it has no real value because there is nothing stopping anyone else from creating their own version.

                  • rakerr on 17/04/2023 - 15:48

                    @CommanderCrumbcake: You can not be serious trying to say that no other crypto currency beats BTC on Speed or Scalability?

                    Security could be argued. But Speed and Scalability? I would be struggling to find one that is slower or less scalable.

                • MindGrenadius on 14/04/2023 - 09:11
                  -1

                  @liongalahad: Fiat dollars and traditional currency is nothing but a unit of account, which is what BTC is also. Fiat is as "fake" and non-existent as Bitcoin is as is anything that society attributes a market value to.

                  As a monetary instrument & unit of account, nothing like BTC exists. Gold is the closest thing but it's not finite and it's other uses taint/"peg" it's value and hold it back from price discovery as purely a value instrument & has the disadvantage of being very hard to transport anywhere & store securely with ease

                  ETH is a perfect example of why BTC probably won't be replicated also. IT's main protocol has changed many many times in it's short existence and is much more like a central bank now. In terms of supply/issuance, it needs to be defined once, confined by mathematics & left… or it just becomes a crypto version of the central banks it was created to be an alternative to. None of these altcoins have the infrastructure, security and history that BTC has.

                  • JumperC on 22/04/2023 - 06:11

                    @MindGrenadius:

                    Fiat dollars and traditional currency is nothing but a unit of account, which is what BTC is also.

                    This is what you think when you understand a small part of how the economy works and you assume you understand much more than you do.

                    Fiat has value because there are government demanding payment in their own currencies and have the backing of armies, police, the power of taxation etc.

                    At a preschool level they look the same, but you swap one bitcoin for another crypto and you’ll find the government expectancy their cut, in Fiat, which creates demand you MUST fulfil by trading your crypto for Fiat. Nothing makes anyone go the other way. Counties have generally kept to less than one currency per country, but there are infinite cryptocurrencies. Yet another way they’re worth less.

                    And finally, bitcoin is one of the worst cryptocurrencies, I sent some the other week, it took days to be processed. My Fiat transferred instantly. And this will only get worse and more expensive as the whole incentive for running the network is mining which is phasing out and will need to be replaced with ever more costly transaction fees!

                    None of these altcoins have the infrastructure, security and history that BTC has.

                    Bitcoin itself has split several times. And it’s publicly traceable, slow and ultimately has an end date to it’s ability to be transacted at all defined from the start. The very things you tout as advantages make it one of the worst currencies for all the things you pretend it’s good at. A useful currency is stable, is fast to transfer etc. Bitcoin is neither.

              • FlyingMiffy on 13/04/2023 - 18:45
                +4

                @techlead: Decentralized, permissionless network to do what?? Scalable, secure to do what? I found it fascinating that you are openly saying that you need to "cash" your BTC so you can buy a house… err… so…

  • Stopback on 12/04/2023 - 11:53
    +4

    Which trading platform is safe

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 11:54
      +1

      Nothing is safe apart from my Trezor and Ledger

      • Stopback on 12/04/2023 - 12:04

        What trading platform do you use

        • techlead on 17/04/2023 - 11:41

          Binance or DEXes like sushiswap, Biswap etc

          I don't keep much on Binance.

      • illusion99 on 13/04/2023 - 07:41
        +15

        Trezor and Ledger are not trading platforms

      • buckerooni on 13/04/2023 - 22:05
        +5

        ah, the future of finance! everyone will be great at being their own bank. oh hey honey, have you seen my car keys for the 10000th time?! imagine that with your finances, but you lose them forever.

        • Knightelf on 15/04/2023 - 21:03

          Yeah, I have a couple maybe 3 or 4 BTC I put in cold storage about 7 years ago. Never found the USB stick.

          • techlead on 17/04/2023 - 11:42

            @Knightelf: Did you keep your seed phrases?

            If not, that's on you, not really due to the technology. Its like burying a box with $100k cash, then forgetting where you buried it. Its not the cash's fault lol.

            • buckerooni on 24/04/2023 - 16:38

              @techlead: which is one of the reasons banks, with support staff, and gov regulation exist!

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:54

        Pretty sure those are susceptible to wrench based attacks….

        • techlead on 17/04/2023 - 11:43

          Pretty much anything in life is susceptible to $15 wrench based attacks…

    • Odin on 13/04/2023 - 07:46
      +3

      For Aussie sites - coinjar, btc markets, coinspot, ind reserve

      There's a fair few

      • ram4ram on 16/04/2023 - 10:42

        Are they really safe… Once hacked, bye bye…

        • Odin on 16/04/2023 - 12:52

          I mean, you don't keep stuff on them, you do your trades then remove your stuff

          • ram4ram on 17/04/2023 - 18:39

            @Odin: is this with a 'ledger' device?

            • Odin on 18/04/2023 - 00:26
              +1

              @ram4ram: whatever you want as long as you have private keys

              you can just make a random offline wallet and use that to transfer to. You can even make a "paper" wallet.

              ledgers or their equivalents are just easy to use versions of that.

              nothing wrong with any of the options

              • techlead on 26/04/2023 - 21:51

                @Odin: There are issues with some paper wallets. Some sites may purposely create compromised "paper" wallets which can be easily hacked.

                Have a read and watch of this, very interesting, https://www.ise.io/casestudies/ethercombing/.

                Hardware wallets are the gold standard nowadays, don't bother with "paper" wallets, that's so 2013, its not secure.

          • Mentallysick on 25/04/2023 - 19:01

            @Odin: remove where?

    • frewer on 13/04/2023 - 08:46

      Pity that the bureaucrat stopped Binance from provide leverage trading in Oz. So I have to go to Bitmex & bitfinex.

  • CrowReally on 12/04/2023 - 11:56
    +53

    Personally, I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013. I knew about its existence shortly after it was created and I read and understood the whitepaper, but didn't believe it would work. This changed in 2013, happy to be proven wrong and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have allowed me to accumulate a nice small fortune.

    "Originally I thought it was purely a speculative and volatile investment with no commercial applications. Then the line went up more, and I realised because I made money off that, it was no longer a purely speculative and volatile investment with no commercial applications".

    • Johnsmithaus on 12/04/2023 - 12:00
      +1

      True, but he's a winner at the end of the day

      • CrowReally on 12/04/2023 - 12:01
        +15

        As are lottery ticket winners, sure. Or the "always bet on black" roulette strategists who played a few games when black turned up more than red.

        Now imagine those groups smugly rubbing their winnings/financial analysis in normie people's faces.

        • Johnsmithaus on 12/04/2023 - 13:21
          +3

          Completely agree, that's why they are called normies, because they can't decipher between the two :-)

        • nomoneynoproblems on 13/04/2023 - 10:32
          +1

          But for 14 years though? Last time i played roulette, the house always won. If you stuck in since 2017 you’re well ahead.

          • CrowReally on 13/04/2023 - 10:43
            +2

            @nomoneynoproblems: It would depend on how often you played roulette/bought Bitcoin. If you 'zoom out' and only play roulette once in the last 5 years (and won) then congratulations, you've discovered a 5 year strategy on winning at roulette, etc.

            If people want to print out graphs of historical performance and highlight the bits when the line goes up and say "look if you buy on the bit that's highlighted on the left and sell at the bit that's highlighted on the right then you've made great money", more power to them.

            None of that is an indicator of which way the line will go tomorrow (in the same way a roulette spin isn't an indicator of the next result).

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:59

            @nomoneynoproblems: Madoff kept his scheme going for decades, this one could last centuries… or it could evaporate tomorrow.

            Lots of people had to sell since 2017, most lost. The people that bought from them might have won, or might have lost. You can’t win until you sell and buy something real. Ultimately there must be at least one loser for every winner. That’s not the case with most investments.

  • Hybroid on 12/04/2023 - 11:57
    +32

    Isn't this just cyclical? It goes up and down over time like anything else so doesn't really prove anything.

    Bitcoin isn't a scam. It's an investment pyramid scheme. For you to make money, others have to lose money. Doesn't mean you can't make money though.

    Ethereum gas fees are a blatant scam though.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:02
      -7

      For you to make money, others have to lose money. Doesn't mean you can't make money though.

      Here's a recent trade I did. I purchased 20.82 BTC late 2022 at $16688 per BTC, I sold it over the last few days at an average price of around $30100 USD because I want to purchase a property to live in soon.

      In this scenario, who lost money? The person who sold it to me late 2022, me or the person who bought it off me a few days again. BTC is $30184 USD at the time of writing.

      I know who hasn't lost money, the ATO. They are going to be very happy this year when I send them my taxes lmao.

      • Stopback on 12/04/2023 - 12:04

        How about the people invested in ftx

        • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:05
          +10

          FTX was due to corporate mismanagement and greed. This happens in any industry, pointing to FTX is like, How about the people who invested in Enron? Hence all shares are a scam.

      • drfuzzy on 12/04/2023 - 22:46

        Thanks for that.

        If you had held it for 12 months you would have achieved the 50% CGT discount which means less tax for the rest of us to suck up in welfare and pensions.

        • drfuzzy on 12/04/2023 - 22:48
          +6

          you've probably extended the life of the pension system by 2 or 3 minutes.

      • BadAtNames on 13/04/2023 - 02:06
        +13

        The buyer loses money if the seller makes a profit. You had to sell to buy your house, why, because BTC isn't worth something tangible, you couldn't buy your house with it. Your BTC had value because someone else was willing to lose 30k to have one.

        For that person to get recoup they'd need someone else to lose the same amount of money they put in, the entire BTC eco-system is predicated on money being poured in. If people stop doing that the price plummets, just like it did before. To me it's more a ponzi scheme than pyramid scheme, give me money and you'll get more back so long as other people give me even more money.

        • frewer on 13/04/2023 - 08:52
          -1

          The buyer loses money if the seller makes a profit

          Is that like likes everything else that involve money ? One lose money & health when they buy timtam, Maccas, coke, the seller gain money shrug

          Talking about ''pyramid scheme", what king of bank that lost ~98% of its value ( since GFC 1.0 ) LUL https://www.tradingview.com/x/poS1ihLp/.

          Same story at different bank https://www.tradingview.com/x/ooajxBUj/. EU will be dead by 10000s cut of poverty. GFC 1.0 was never resolve, it was kick down the road

          • BadAtNames on 13/04/2023 - 14:51
            +2

            @frewer: No it's not, the coke has value to you even if you never sell it, you drink it.

            • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 15:02
              +2

              @BadAtNames: Here is the anatomy of a ponzi scheme. (James C. Sell, "Anatomy of a Ponzi Scheme: Part 3,' Greater Phoenix Attorney at Law Magazine, Apr. 2010 at 28-29.)

              (1) using new investor funds to pay prior investors;
              (2) representing that the investor returns are generated from a purported business venture; and
              (3) employing artificial devices to disguise the lack of economic substance or defer the recognition of economic loss.

              (1) This requires a central entity to perform this, if an asset's value is determined by the free market, it cannot be a ponzi scheme. Look at Credit Suisse, where are the new investors to pay off the prior ones? https://www.tradingview.com/x/poS1ihLp/ When there is a free market for something, it cannot be a Ponzi scheme, so Bitcoin doesn't satisfy this point.

              (2) Everything is transparent here, from Bitcoin's code and network, it is easily verifiable. As for returns, this doesn't mean market returns, it means fake returns, what Charles Ponzi was doing, so Bitcoin doesn't satisfy this point either.

              (3) This doesn't apply to Bitcoin either, there's no disguise, everything is out in the open for everyone to see.

              Hence, Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme.

            • frewer on 17/04/2023 - 09:16

              @BadAtNames: You still missed the point, values is relative, determines by the 'free market'. Period. Institution already in the crypto ponzi since 2012, who do you think pump & dump these ponzi ?!?!? It cost a few million just to moves BTC 0.7% ZERO point SEVEN bruh !!!

        • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 14:56

          why, because BTC isn't worth something tangible

          Are you telling me that the AUD notes in my hands are not "something tangible"? What kind of logic is this?

          I sell my BTC for AUD, which IS tangible, I'm touching a note right now, seems very very tangible to me, which I can then use to buy my house.

          the entire BTC eco-system is predicated on money being poured in.

          And this is different to other markets like shares, properties and commodities in what way? Demand goes down, price goes down, its pretty basic market dynamics, economics 101.

          To me it's more a ponzi scheme than pyramid scheme, give me money and you'll get more back so long as other people give me even more money.

          You just described the property market lmao. I disagree that its a ponzi and/or pyramid scheme though.

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 02:02
        +1

        In this scenario, who lost money? The person who sold it to me late 2022, me or the person who bought it off me a few days again. BTC is $30184 USD at the time of writing.

        At least the person who sold it to you and potentially the person you sold it to. The number of losers is always going to be at least the number of winners + 1, potentially many more. This is unlike other assets which produce while you hold them and even create useful physical things.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:08
      -4

      Ethereum gas fees are a blatant scam though.

      2017 called, they'd like this talking point back.

      Do you know how far ETH has come since 2017? Do you know what changes took place? There's too many upgrades to list so you can google it yourself, but in response to your ETH gas fees comments, have a look at the current fees, https://ethgasstation.info/. Yes, its in cents. Of course as you interact with something more complex such as a smart contract, it can be more, but its no longer in the thousands like back in 2017, and even back then it was in a thousands only for very short periods of high volume periods.

    • mitchalbrown on 13/04/2023 - 12:25
      +3

      Ethereum gas fees are a blatant scam though.

      You obviously don't understand how Ethereum works if thats what you think… why would anyone run a node and support the network and execute smart contracts if there was no reward for doing so? where else would that reward come from?

      Apologies if you just meant that the gas fees are too high… that I do agree but acknowledge that layer 2 scaling fixes this.

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 02:03

        I think people need to think about what happens to the Bitcoin network when all the coins are nearly mined. It’ll be in the same situation but with less utility…

  • SBOB on 12/04/2023 - 11:59
    +11

    So with an ath over over 65k usd, breaking a 30k boundary is proving nay sayers wrong?

    Back in a min, just putting random a,b,c waves on a chart to prove that 100k is clearly the next expected peak.

    • Patrick D on 16/04/2023 - 22:11

      lol

    • techlead on 10/01/2024 - 11:55

      Your prediction is coming true lmao. I don't think $100k would be Bitcoin's peak though, it will blast past it for sure.

      There is no ceiling to the Bitcoin price because there is no floor to the value of fiat currencies.

  • lostgoat on 12/04/2023 - 12:08
    +4

    No talk of regulation techlead that could turn your BTC to toilet paper ?

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:10
      +3

      Well, we can see it already. China tried to ban BTC, look where its at today? Has it turned to toilet paper yet? In fact, many countries have banned BTC right now.

      Its highly unlikely that US will ban BTC, its has grown to big, but let's see, if they do try, I'm sure BTC will still survive.

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 02:07

        The US has basically banned Russia and their annual GDP is several times the total market cap of Bitcoin. Size isn’t a problem if they think it is being used to evade sanctions.

        Survival isn’t a problem, but being unable to cash it in for fiat to pay taxes while still being taxed when you buy things with it… ouch.

        • mitchalbrown on 19/04/2023 - 10:03

          This is a genuine concern… network fees would still be generated and paid out to the miners but once the 21m level is reached then that will be all that makes up the block rewards.

  • djkelly69 on 12/04/2023 - 12:22
    +72

    Mods, why is this BTC pump and dump sh*t allowed to be posted here repeatedly, by someone who has a clear and stated interest in BTC increasing in price?

    Making broad, unfounded statements like:

    I look at other investment classes, shares, bonds, property, its all doom and gloom.

    is just rubbish, and bordering on financial advice (and not good advice at that).

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