Unofficial OzBargain Mortgage Stress Poll

So the basket case, house of cards, Ponzi scheme that is the Australian economy that is already in a per-capita recession has just been hit with its 13th interest rate hike - I'm sure this will be in economics text books in a decade or so from now about how over-leveraged borrowers took on way too much debt in a time when the cash rate was effectively zero and got caught in the biggest debt trap anyone who is alive today has ever seen.

HOWEVER - OzBargain is full of savvy individuals, with financially literacy - those of you with home loans I'm sure didn't borrow anywhere near to your max and have a large amount of financial armour to shield them in what is turning into a situation that will be very dire for many Australians.

But I ask the question, are you stressed about your home loan debt repayments/ debt levels?

I'll try to keep 'context' in the polls - let's keep this for PPOR - not investors.

The interest rates are the highest they have been in 12 years, essentially my entire adult life the cash rate has been lower…..I wonder if I'm not the only one….

Update - I'll add an extra layer for those trying to 'buy their own home' as 'somehow' prices are still rising but borrowing power is dropping.

Poll Options

  • 229
    Stressed have had a home loan less than 5 years
  • 118
    Stressed have had a home loan greater than 5 years
  • 684
    Not Stressed
  • 141
    I dont have a PPOR loan
  • 58
    I want to buy my PPOR this makes it harder

Comments

    • +5

      RBA - "Another rate rise will fix this"

      the RBA has only 1 tool, the blame needs to be squared at the federal and state governments

      • +6

        Yes they gave out far too much free money, and are doing nothing about the profiteering, however the rba is only hurting those who can least afford it, and who aren't out spending anyway.

        • Yes they gave out far too much free money, and are doing nothing about the profiteering, however the rba is only hurting those who can least afford it, and who aren't out spending anyway.

          i agree but once again what is the government doing to combat inflation?

          i have said multiple times you would hit 90% of the working population but increasing mandatory super temporarily - to 15-25%

          This would reduce take home pay but the money would not go to greedy banks and instead help the individuals super balance but at the same time slowing inflation

          there are 'other' similar measures the federal government could of done to stop inflation ie not rise min wages, temporary cap price increases on things like energy, fuel etc but they have done nothing if anything they have made it worse….

          • +1

            @Trying2SaveABuck: Scrapping those stage 3 tax cuts would be a good option that's within the government's toolbox

            • +3

              @based:

              Scrapping those stage 3 tax cuts would be a good option that's within the government's toolbox

              Political suicide - not going to happen.

              They will bring them in and blame the opposition, just like every government before them.

            • -2

              @based:

              Scrapping those stage 3 tax cuts would be a good option that's within the government's toolbox

              nah probably the only thing that might help those working people feeling it most - id rather the brackets be indexed but without indexation we need more cuts to brackets

              perhaps not increasing mandatory min wages twice during a period of high inflation would of been smarter

              we need LESS income tax not more - i would support more CONSUPTION tax to shift the balance

              • @Trying2SaveABuck: Just skimming over the fact that consumption taxes disproportionately affect people on lower incomes and stage 3 cuts primarily impact people on over 120k not the 'working people feeling it most'.
                To get this straight, you want to reduce how much people can spend by increasing super contributions but at the same time you want to increase how much they have to spend by reducing income taxes?

          • @Trying2SaveABuck:

            increasing mandatory super temporarily

            Agree. This would be effective at reigning in spending. However our currency would devalue against others if our cash rate didn't shift accordingly. Perhaps a bit of both.

            • +1

              @us3rnam3tak3n:

              Perhaps a bit of both.

              of course the idea should be to have an optimal % of cash rate (maybe an economist can come up with a 'optimal' range)

              Then uses super to taper inflation 'around' that optimal range for growth and equity

      • +1

        Exactly. Governments should get their taxation settings right but it's easier to heap everything on the RBA so that they can shift blame if things go wrong. The RBA can only do one thing, as you point out.

        • +1

          the more the RBA put up interest rates the more voters will turn on the government - you cant vote out the RBA but you can voted out the idiots in power

  • +3

    This was always going to happen. And too many people overpaid for something they couldnt afford because of record low rates out of greed.

    Now what a rational person would expect has happened, the world eventually returned to the norm and now the greed has come back to haunt the unfortunate who had no foresight.

    Who is to blame? The government or themselves. Maybe in a way we are all to blame for how greedy and selfish we have become. In no way am I any different, just possibly more adept in my financial stability

  • +1

    I think I can afford the extra 1c a month in interest payments. Just need to cash in an extra container or two a year at the recycling centre.

  • +11

    This poll actually begs the question, what % of the population is struggling, exactly? All I hear on the news and the radio is about people in financial hardship and they're having to dip into their savings to purchase basic daily needs and at the same time, I'm also seeing people cruising around in luxury cars, buying luxury clothes/accessories and simply splurging money because YOLO? According to the poll, OzB isn't struggling either. Are people living beyond their means so they can flex money they don't have and subsequently putting themselves in financial hardship whilst portraying an image that they're doing OK? What is actually going on? If an Economist could explain like I'm 5, that would be great.

    • +16

      Let's be real, ozbargain isn't a place for people who are budgeting tightly and is living paycheck to paycheck.

      Ozbargain is a place for capitalism to strive for people who buy things out of fomo on things they actually don't need

      Doesn't surprise me the poll is mostly of people not stressing cause frankly, imo, most people here have money to blow.

      • +1

        I certainly don't have money to blow. I'm not necessarily living paycheck to paycheck, but I'm only on OzB to save money on things that I actually need, not random things.

        • +2

          How many bargains you got referred on here you actually need? When I mean, need, it's literally an item or service you can't live without and it's a must purchase from here?

    • +1

      I think it is a widening of the gap between struggle street and royal street. You're right, I see plenty of homeless people nowadays but at the same time I see people buying expensive clothing and cars. Where does the averge Joe sit?

    • +1

      The vast majority of Australians are living the high life. Average salary on OzBargain/WhirlPool/AusFinance is $300,000. People are always going on overseas holidays and purchasing new SUVs. Only about 10% of Aussies are 'struggle street' material. I hear people are even getting housing extensions built so they can display all of the Lego they have purchased over the past few years, in dedicated display room.

    • +1

      Exactly. My recent experience:
      Go to the pub on a Friday afternoon - packed
      Go to a restaurant on Saturday night - packed
      Go to a shopping mall on a Sunday afternoon - packed
      Car dealers can't keep up with demand
      Costco always busy
      etc

      Something is not computing against what we're being told.

  • +7

    I bought a house in 2013 for 650K. I told my wife that this 2% party wouldn't last forever.
    With our combined income of 120k me and wife hit this variable rate harder than a MF.
    I was doing batsh!t things like both salaries would hit the offset and we would take out what we needed for petrol, food school fees etc with small withdrawals daily.

    And our bank hated our guts with constant calls weekly asking us if we would like reinvest out equity. LOL

    Anyway we paid off our 30 year loan in 10 years. And the game was well played by us but i wouldn't play it again.
    Not at Million plus homes with 6% interest.

    • +2

      You're missing out on gainzz

    • +2

      Did the same in 2018. Bought first home for around 600k and paid it off early 2023. Although, now we feel like we could have splurged a bit more on the first home and got everything we wanted. Because, now we wanna upgrade but find the current prices to be really crazy.

      • +4

        I check the rent once a month in my suburb and it makes me feel better that i have a home.

    • that's great to hear and full credit to you for that, but if you played the game you could have used the equity and servicing to buy another place in 2019-20, sold it 3 years later for 50-100% gain

      • On the positive side, my 650k is worth 1.3mil now so maybe take some out and buy shares.

        • Not picking on you specifically, most people think like this, but do you (and they) realize that what's actually happened is the amount of currency in circulation from 2013 to 2023 has approximately doubled (more than doubled?), and 1.3mil today is worth approximately what 650k was worth in 2013?

          Some large majority of real estate gains on average are little more than inflation, so this is a celebration of not having wealth stolen from you, rather than a celebration of growing wealth.

  • +4

    Ppor.
    Signed up early COVID 1.98 fixed 4 yrs
    Stressed about coming off….

    • This is me! Coming off early 2024. It's going to be interesting :)

      • +2

        Name checks out

    • damn they are just waiting …….

  • +3

    Your poll is missing "degrees of stress". I'm "mildly stressed" mostly because my repayments have doubled. Thankfully I took a new job that paid a lot more than my old one before this (profanity) started.

  • +3

    We had the option of buying a mansion and taking on decades of debt at 5% interest like everyone else was doing. Instead, we bought a modest house we could afford and paid it off in 2 years, and did some minor renovations ourselves for nearly nothing.

  • +2

    My house is fully paid off, so not as stressed as many of you are.

    I see many people still eating out etc.

    I had my hair done a month ago and I asked if their business had decreased at all. I was told that their regulars are still coming in, but instead of every 6 weeks , they'll extend it to 8 weeks instead.

    • +6

      Yep, people complain about the cost of living, but at my local cafe every one of the 200+ seats has a butt in it spending min 30 bucks on poor quality food. The line is about 30 metres long to order on both weekdays and weekends. And just about everyone in the queue is wearing a $500 north face jacket.

      • +1

        Is that a McCafe ?

        • It's one of them "only cafe in the area" type cafes. Sort of an "eat here or starve" setup.

  • -2

    Ive been thinking about the housing bubble a lot lately and feel comfortable Ive now got it worked out.

    I used to blame foreign investors, and corporate landlords, because "who can afford this anyway"

    I did a bit of math and found that if the 3500 houses in my suburb, only 5 households were earning enough money to buy a house without mortgage stress.

    Did some more math and we have more dwellings per capita now than we did in 1991. Yes our immigration is insanely high, but that will cease with a recession. A similar thing happened to Ireland just before their property market crashed.

    My wife's boss who is on a combined household income of around 140k bought their property, and investment property and a Mercedes back in 2017. He was forced to sell the car and the investment property cause he was going backwards. He made $500k on the sale - so he got off Scot free for his irresponsible financial decisions. That's the phase we are in right now, but that won't last forever.

    Ive come to the conclusion that it's actually over leveraged regular Aussies just paying too much for their assets, because the mentality "prices aren't coming down" and "get off the stairs and get in the escalator" - basically FOMO. So they are taking out loans using every last cent they have, and probably lying to do it.

    Then I came across this article which shows the graph of an asset bubble, but really good was the description of each phase. The most important thing is that a bubble that is fuelled by easy to come by debt can last far longer than you ever think possible - ie the "new normal" mentality will set in before the collapse.

    https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter3/transportat…

    I predict prices to fall and stabilise at 50-60% of current value, but will probably hit bottom at 70-75% off what we currently see before rebounding. Housing should generally keep rate with inflation, and the bubble started in 2000, so tracking inflation from 1999 to march this year, a reasonable price to pay is $450k for a median house.

    • +9

      I remember the days when I used to tell myself "they'll come down. Another couple of years and they'll come down. I'll wait til then."

      Ended up paying double what I would have paid if I'd just bought as soon as I had a deposit.

    • +12

      I predict prices to fall and stabilise at 50-60% of current value, but will probably hit bottom at 70-75%

      Don't let life pass you by while waiting for this happen.

    • +14

      I predict prices to fall and stabilise at 50-60% of current value, but will probably hit bottom at 70-75% off what we currently see

      😂😂😂 Well that's my belly laugh for the day.

      • +2

        It’s gonna crash bro, you just wait and see!

        • +1

          I waited years for a crash. Only got minor dips followed by a rebound to higher prices. Covid hit and I figured this is the best crash there'll ever be. I bought a house and got on with life. My only regret is not buying earlier.

    • I predict prices to fall and stabilise at 50-60% of current value, but will probably hit bottom at 70-75% off what we currently see before rebounding. Housing should generally keep rate with inflation, and the bubble started in 2000, so tracking inflation from 1999 to march this year, a reasonable price to pay is $450k for a median house.

      Without government intervention yes, however i feel that Australia's economy is now a 1 trick pony and we're too reliant on the housing market, if the housing market crashes the ponzi scheme crashes and the cashed up players (banks, developers, property investors) make up the elite who get to make the policy calls. They'll let immigration rip to the detriment of future Australian generations before they crash the market (i don't agree with this), Italy is a good example of what happens, high unemployment and a disgruntled younger generation resulting in a brain drain as they leave for elsewhere.

      We were in a recession prior to covid and we're heading straight back there.

      • 'We were in a recession prior to covid and we're heading straight back there'

        No we weren't. There's an accepted definition of recession - everything else is opinion.

        Recession in the future is inevitable

        • -1
          • @Drakesy: Ummm, that was during covid, not prior.

            • -1

              @R4: A recession is a recession though
              Even before covid we were in a per capita recession covid was just used as an excuse to deflect the blame.

              • @Drakesy: A per capita recession is not a recession. It may not be giggles and laughs, but it's not a recession. When I studied economics, my professor would have torn me a new one if I'd tried to justify it as a recession.

                There is only one definition of recession.

                • @R4:

                  There is only one definition of recession.

                  I dont debate this, my only point is that we were almost there without covid intervening.

                  • @Drakesy: Cool. I doubt that we would have gone into recession though - mining and agriculture were still strong and our ridiculously high level of immigration prevented it.

                    Without immigration, Australia would have had several recessions in those 30 years.

    • +2

      I predict prices to fall and stabilise at 50-60% of current value, but will probably hit bottom at 70-75% off what we currently see before rebounding.

      i've been hearing this for the last 15 years

    • +1

      maths

    • Ive come to the conclusion that it's actually over leveraged regular Aussies just paying too much for their assets, because the mentality "prices aren't coming down" and "get off the stairs and get in the escalator" - basically FOMO. So they are taking out loans using every last cent they have, and probably lying to do it.

      This is true to a large extent, but what you're not accounting for is that it's a bubble deliberately being propped up by government economic and immigration policy. It will only pop if they decide they want to pop it, otherwise it's just a widening wealth inequality with a generation lag time from market changes to the majority of people feeling it.

  • +1

    Whilst not fans of the increasing interest rates, we factored in interest rates of up to 9% before we get into official stress, prior to buying earlier this year.

  • +5

    I bought a cheaper house than i could afford and have always paid more off than required. No new cars on finance or expensive phones etc.

    Not all but many under stress bought the most expensive house and car the can afford and always the latest phone, gadgets and overseas holidays etc etc.

  • you should have split the not stressed into the time scale as well and had more time points IMO - ppl who bought in the last few yrs vs ppl that bought 10+yrs ago with much less owing now would have very different results & I bet that not stressed part has been skewed because of that & is full of the almost paid off but technically still have a small mortgage peeps.

  • Nice idea of a poll BUT would have been a lot better placing some % groups for take home pay being devoted to mortgage payments.

    Leaving the users to define if they're 'stressed' or not makes it a near pointless exercise.

  • +4

    I am not stressed, yet, but PISSED - I pay 1500 extra per month now than I was a little over an year ago - but where does it go ? Back to the pockets of the rich.

    • +1

      I’m paying an extra $50k/yr in interest compared to 2yrs ago.

      It’s insane.

      • +1

        life of the middle class, run the hamster wheel to make the rich richer….

  • +2

    In 1998 there was a property price collapse; from 1997 to 2003 Hong Kong residential property prices fell by 61% following the Asian economic crisis.

    This is in one of the most density places on earth.

    Australia will follow!

    I say this despite the fact I have 2 property

    • +2

      I can't see this happening as the trades wages to build stuff is to high and sticky for property to just de-value that much…..

      I mean if you consider roof plumbers getting 220 p/h, brick layers 150-200 p/h, electricians 130-200 p/h etc all the people required to build a basic house will ensure values stay high

      esp when you consider we have a skills shortage wages for skilled trades wont go down…people often dont realise building a house is very much linked to the cost of trades which is astronomical (at least in Victoria)

      • -2

        If people can't afford and have to sell multiple properties at the same time, it will happen. Imagine if all of a sudden everyone selling their Lego sets. Price will come down and market always dictate the direction

        • +1

          This really is understanding the macroeconomy with the brain of a 5yo

          • @Exorcist: Pity he's mostly right.

            If immigration slows for any reason (not saying it will), house prices will drop, and those well paid tradies will be in less demand as fewer houses are needed.

            If immigration stops outright, house prices will steadily decrease as our shrinking population need fewer and fewer houses. Young working people will have plenty of work opportunities, but the older people will still be spending savings in their retirement and seeing their assets devalue.

            I've actually lived in an agricultural area of australia where property prices have been falling relative to CPI for decades due to shrinking population. Even in absolute numbers, there have been long periods where prices have fallen - a friend bought a place for $120k and sold it 3 years later for $90k - and this was while prices were relatively stable (or saw slight growth) in cities. Property prices in mining towns often 10x in boom times, and devalue 90% when the nearby mines are in maintenance mode. These are Australian examples, but there are many more if you look internationally.

            • @ssfps:

              If immigration slows for any reason (not saying it will), house prices will drop, and those well paid tradies will be in less demand as fewer houses are needed.

              immigration is speeding up under Albo not slowing down

              Also our 'population' is growing even without immigration becuz the older generations are living much longer then previous generations

              Saying 'if immigration slows' is like saying if i win the lotto - it is possible but it isnt going to happen anytime soon

      • all the people required to build a basic house will ensure values stay high

        They can only do that if they collectively bargain against the entire country, i.e. they refuse to compete with each other for work in a market where demand has dropped.

        • going to say they are winning by a country mile there is a shortage of almost every trade required to build a house….this will mean they will only get paid more

          pretty simply supply and demand economics - this has been the case for about 20 years

          during the 90s and early 00s the push was for young people to go to uni and get and education - this tread has caught on and far less skill workers were trained as young people favored tertiary education over trades

          this created a shortage in blue collar skilled workers this tread is starting to change a people realise blue collar works now on average make more than most uni grades and dont have hecs or any debt when they finish their training

          there is also the fact 50-60 percent of under grad degrees dont lead to a job ie arts, science etc without further study creating further debt

  • Mine comes off its 1.88% fixed rate in February. When I fixed it, went for a 15 year term to pay it of quicker when rates were low. Glad I did. Can re-sign at a longer rate to reduce the payments a bit.

    Question is though - will rates ever go down again? In the grand scheme of things, the rate is not that high.

    • Question is though - will rates ever go down again? In the grand scheme of things, the rate is not that high.

      They kind of are though.

      Over the last 30 years the average is about 3%. So we're above that

  • +1

    Partner and I JUST bought our PPOR. We decided to buy something that we could comfortably afford - luckily for us we did, since there's now been another rate rise.

    Going from renting to buying a property isn't easy, especially while cost of living is so high.

    Not stressed since we've accounted for this but things can change very quickly. Looks like no holidays or expensive gifts for a few years.

  • +3

    Mortgages suck, hope they go down again soon, current cost of living, extreme cost of houses and high interest rates are a joke.

    "But just dont borrow as much" - yeh right, when you're borrowing the minimum amount to get into this ridiculously over priced market there'S not a lot you can do except take the plunge. Better than renting which is ridiculously overpriced too.

    Dammed if you do, dammed if you dont.

    • +2

      "But just dont borrow as much" - yeh right, when you're borrowing the minimum amount to get into this ridiculously over priced market there'S not a lot you can do except take the plunge. Better than renting which is ridiculously overpriced too.

      thats the 'catch 22' and what the people saying 'well too bad you should know better' dont seem to 'grasp'

      for 30 years properties have outstripped pretty much everything in Australia - it is on some level an unsustainable ponzi scheme but it has created a large amount of revenue for state governments (NSW/VIC in Particular)

      Buyers were either forced to jump on the scheme or miss out on ever owning a home - forcing some borrows to stretch beyond what they might of been comfortable borrowing.

      It just happens the elastic has finally snapped back and the time of 'cheap money' has ended NO one saw it ending so quickly and anyone who did would of profited from it via other investment strategies.

      Thus i agree 100%with

      Dammed if you do, dammed if you dont.

      I have a small amount of debt for the size of my portfolio but it is only becuz i brought in and sold out a few investments over the last 10 years and im quite comfortable HOWEVER if i tried to do what i did 8-10 years ago now i would of been f—ked so perhaps that is why im empathetic

  • +3

    Just like you can't fight electrical fires with water, you can't fight greedflation with interest rates. RBA knows this, but the only tool it has at its disposal is fiddling with the OCR. So even though it's effectively doing nothing (probably making things worse, tbh), it needs to put out the perception to the less-informed that it is doing something. Government is also aware but would rather do nothing and blame RBA from the sidelines than to take any meaningful action. This extends to both sides of government—blaming someone else earns much more political points than trying to fix a systemic issue (of which you have vested interest to NOT fix in the first place). Sometimes I envy the French and their penchant to riot over the smallest of issues—at least it keeps their government on its toes. We're too laid back in Oz and politicians have it too easy.

    • -1

      Government is also aware but would rather do nothing and blame RBA from the sidelines than to take any meaningful action. This extends to both sides of government—blaming someone else earns much more political points than trying to fix a systemic issue

      i agree it is about political point scoring but the current government at both state and federal level has done nothing but make inflation worse with their policies

      Politics should be about running the country not about PR the issue with the 'younger' generations voting the PR means more then actually fixing issues

  • +2

    Stressed that my missus and kids always complain our house is too small, but not stressed about rate rises as I managed to fix at 2% and will pay off loan when the fixed rate ends in 1 year.

    • Nice well done man - it is a big thing to be able to pay of your house

  • +3

    Interest rates are still pretty low and if anything are probably still lower than they should be. Yes we had insanely stupid low rates for the last decade, but that was abnormal. People need to learn to deal with standard rates.

    • they're they are the highest they have been in 12 years…..

      • +3

        Of course as we had stupidly low rates for most of that time

    • +1

      Different world now, debt levels are higher and today's rates are biting harder than much higher rates did in the past.

      • Well reality is going to bite hard for many then as current rates either slighly higher or lower will likely be the norm for a lot of years.

        • +1

          Another one with certainty about where rates are going. Given even the RBA got that totally wrong (as they also did pre GFC), what qualifies you to make this forecast?

  • +1

    In the 70s and 80s around 12% was normal, reaching 17.5% in 1990. We had to save 20% deposit to get a loan and had to start with the cheapest house we could. A new car was only for businesses or wealthy people. We lived within our means. If we couldn't afford to live in an area, we moved to a different one, or a smaller town. I knew of nobody who could afford to buy a house under 30, even with a good job.
    Today everyone expects to be able to have a new car, even two, and a new home with every mod-con. They expect to be able to live where they want instead of where they can afford. They are living beyond their means with unrealistic expectations.

    • -2

      the average pay rise in the 70-80s was 9-10 percent…… the average pay rise in Australia today is like 1.9-2.2 percent…..

      • +7

        the average pay rise in the 70-80s was 9-10 percent…

        I'll take made up facts for $200 thanks Alex

        • -2

          Wage increases in 1980 outpaced by inflation - https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1981/05/rpt4full.pdf

          it is literally a study used in economics

          'salaries, and supplementary benefits, rose to 10.0 percent in 1980'

          real question do you ever get tired of being wrong SBOB….i legit have never read a comment you have put out there and thought this guy/girl make sense and knows what he is on about….

          • +5

            @Trying2SaveABuck: It peaked around 9-10%. It did not average that for 70s and 80s and important to note this was still significantly below inflation for the time

            • +3

              @gromit: Peaked, averaged…same same when you're making things up :)

          • +2

            @Trying2SaveABuck: Why are you linking a US study when referring to salary rates?
            Got a local reference showing an average 9+% wage growth continually for the two decades you quoted?

            real question do you ever get tired of being wrong SBOB….i legit have never read a comment you have put out there and thought this guy/girl make sense and knows what he is on about….

            Thanks for the compliment. Honestly, that's actually high praise.
            Ironic, but high praise.

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