How is this affecting your Ozbargain spend or Retirement plans? I suspect we will take a battering when ASX opens?
Just would like to ask my fellow OzBargainers to take care!
NASDAQ/SPI down, ASX Too?
moo on 07/04/2025 - 09:44
Last edited 07/04/2025 - 09:45
Last edited 07/04/2025 - 09:45
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Ill be retiring at 80 by the look of things. Took a beating over the past few weeks.
at least you'll get to retire.
ill still be having to shake my money maker at age 99
Or get a sugar daddy/mummy that can outlive you.
ill still be having to shake my money maker at age 99
Will it be saggy by then?
@Duckie2hh: theres a market for anything if you advertise it right i reckon
people: listen old man, i will pay you to PUT IT AWAY!
The S&P500 is at the same level as it was in April 2024.
The ASX 200 is at the same level as it was in December 2023.
So I guess your plan 2 years ago was to retire when you were 79?
No more gains mean longer investment periods
you are assuming they haven't invested more in the period since then. while my the majority of my shares are back where they were 1- 2 years ago, a portion is also underwater from purchases since then. Still I am in for the long haul and have no need to withdraw shares anytime soon.
as long as i plan to live for 3 weeks after
Do you mean "as long as I plan to only live for weeks"?
Nothing stopping you from dying 1 day after retirement.
my FIRE calculations are solely based off dividends/rental income so the underlying asset value doesn't matter
Me: profuse sweating
Watching my super balance through the GFC, Covid and now with this orange craziness, means I prefer to not look at the balance for a couple of months rather than stress at the roller coaster low points. Strategy has been in place since pre-Covid, so just have to chill and keep fingers crossed for the bounce/J curve.
@Poor Ass: Shifted to conservative setting with a lower ratio of high growth stocks, more in bonds, cash and blue chips with a decent annual dividend yield in average years.
So, still suffers from the market volatility, but in a financially conservative selection with an emphasis on preservation as opposed to pure growth.
Still on the roller coaster, but not as extreme as high growth/high risk stocks.@DashCam AKA Rolts: sounds like ya near retirement
remember to use up ya super income account so that earnings are not taxed but disadvantage is you must take x amount out each year…. but you can have multiple accounts
@Poor Ass: Been retired for a while.
remember to use up ya super income account so that earnings are not taxed but disadvantage is you must take x amount out each year…. but you can have multiple accounts
Definitely recommend this.
battering when ASX opens?
Great opportunity to buy more.
me who bought all the dips early days:
with what fams :')
Oh well. It will come back. No one can time the bottom.
There haven't been any dips since the covid 2020 dip.
Yeah, that’s when I went in. It’s been a rough 5 years.
Great opportunity to buy more.
Lovely, exit liquidity for the CTAs…
CTAs?
What do you mean "we"?
This is part of the fallacy.
I always ask people why they state that, especially when they said "We just bombed those kids in Palestine". Was it we or was it the government? I didn't consent to them being bombed.
Granted it's not the case for everyone, but if you're on this forum the chances are you live in Australia and have a superannuation account that has some form of investment in the sharemarket. So yes, the term "we" would be appropriate in this case as it will have an impact on you.
Are you planning on retiring within the next 6 months ?
That's also another fallacy that stocks always go up.
The demise of the US economy could mean the fall of the West. FML.
A lost decade of hell courtesy of Trump for those who weren't prepared.
How did you prepare for Trump?
Business is good on Epstein Island 2.0
I still have 20+ years until I am 65 so I am not worrying about it. However, I would like to semi-retire in my early 50's so hopefully this doesn't change that at all.
After seeing the big drop again today, yeah maybe I might be a bit worried now haha
Some people moved their investments and super into cash late last year or earlier.
Will be good buying opportunity soonish. American markets still way overpriced.
Yes SPY for instance overnight hit 480 which is a long way down from 2 months ago 610. I chart that we will see 430, so possibly another 10% or so to go.
I wouldn't be investing for the medium term, but short term there will be a decent bounce.
Who'dve through warren buffet doing this back in December was onto something.
He was doing it long before December. Just taking profits and staying in cash.
Buy gold bullion
Just don't ask what happened to Australia's gold bullion reserves in the 90s
AUD being down is affecting my ozb spend more
SP500 still DCA
ASX buying the dip
Refusing to check super
TP1 Hit.
However, crazy orange man might cause another dump. Recessions usually see a correction of 75%, let's see how far crazy orange guy takes it. Maybe the conspiracy theorists are right this time and we go into a Japanese style recession. FML.
Wiping tears with profits, whilst my country goes to the dumps is better than just crying. lol. That's a quote I got from a fellow trader yesterday.
Retirement plans
Laughs in defined benefit.
Everyone was crying the same 5 years ago and guess what, everything recovered and then some.
American good will become expensive not that there are many and Chinese good will become cheaper (except for where they are owned by a US company).
Yeah, the cheaper Chinese goods get balanced a bit by the weak AUD. As far as imported inflation goes we will miss it so expect further rate drops.
Do things like iPhones become more expensive in the US?
The bigger problem with our society is all these superannuation funds that keep investing in the US markets, notably the MAG7. If you don't consent to those losses, move your money. Ask your fund where your money is being invested.
Invest locally in industries that are isolated from the US. Australian renewables might be a good bet, regardless of what my fellow conspiracy theorists believe. Invest in Australian Beef. Those are a few things I can think off just on top of my head.
Trump is here to bring in the New World Order. Let's not forget that.
USA wanting Mexico and Greenland is all part of the wider theory of the "North American Union". Wonder why that theory existed for many decades before Trump finally mentioned small hints of the US moving towards that. Is it a theory, or it is a real conspiracy? That's what he is doing.
The Greater Israel plan which is not a conspiracy theory because it is a badge that is on their military uniforms. That's a good thing for their country, they are taking control of more land for their own people, but our governments are enabling it. I'm not sure if that is the right thing to do, but if we took away the genocide (if in a parallel universe it didn't happen) then maybe it's alright since it would bring economic prosperity to the area.
Most people are asleep, you can't wake them up. It's not about what is right or wrong sometimes. It's just about being aware. Taking precautions to protect your capital.
Even if you invest in index ETF like global equity index it is 70% US due to market cap.
You could get equally weighted ETFs unfortunately performance not as good. People want to chase returns.
Index ETFs will rebalance automatically so if the US becomes only 40% of the world market that's what you will be invested in
You forgot. This depends on whether US has dropped by that much or rest of the world gained to bring US to 40% of the index weight.
Two big differences to returns.
Not necessarily. Industries in emerging new markets might not be listed, that's only the neoliberal capitalist model. Look at the market cap of China's stock market and their national output, you will notice the market cap is multiple times lower than you would expect for the size of their economy
Ready for more facts?
Plenty of retirees would have moved to cash. A lot of OzBargainers I noticed ask why move to cash when you can continue to earn healthy yields. Isn't it obvious?
Imagine living your last 10-20 years waiting for the market to recover, what a shitty retirement that would be. You get more utility from being in safe assets in retirement. That's plain and simple, that's what retirement is. If you are still paying off a mortgage in retirement, I don't know where your advice came from but WTF.
Damn, I don't know why common sense isn't that common on here.
Plenty of retirees would have moved to cash
Like just cash earning 5%? It depends on your super balance. Each to their own. Isn't the average retirement super balance right now like $300k. I just laugh when people publish letters on the papers about retirees with $2m and want to get the part pension. Lot of these people are business owners.
The only people who get lucky are those who bought their PPOR property for $30k in 1960 and now worth $1.5m and have their children bickering to sell it and send them to old people's home. You still need to sell it to release the equity.
I just laugh when people publish letters on the papers about retirees with $2m and want to get the part pension. Lot of these people are business owners.
Lol, that gave me a chuckle too.
Yeah, I guess everyone has a different opinion, but seriously I think the utility from being safe and is better than seeing one's portfolio flopping around in a world that is becoming increasingly politically radical (whether that be left or on the right).
If you don't mind me asking, what's your investment/retirement strategy? Genuinely curious and I am sure it will be quite insightful.
Is cash a good option though, given that that AUD is devaluating in line with our reduction in interest rate, reduced trade & demand for our commodity? I'd have imagine gold will be the more stable option.
Gold isn't an investment, it's speculative, it generates no return. Cash even at 5% is still a return.
5% of a $1mil is $50k a year without a single f*** given about the ups and down. Plenty of money to live on in the Ozb life even with rising costs.
Not saying thats a good plan but I think that's what Foggy is trying to say
That's a bit of a more tricky scenario to forecast, but both provide more certainty than equities.
The overwhelming majority of super balances are well below $1mil.
@tenpercent: It's an example of why someone in or nearing retirement just holding cash is a plausible strategy. Not at all saying people should have $1mil.
Even if you had the recommended balance of $500-$600k and got $20-$30k/pa out of cash that is still a viable retirement lifestyle for home owners.
Cash and a proper plan for spending your money is suitable for most retirees.
Gold is only appropriate during certain periods of time, which I have to admit you got me there. It probably would outperform cash within the next decade.
gold will be the more stable option
Gold purchasing power is stable. Unfortunately the problem is holding costs. Fees if you are leaving it physically in a vault or if you have paper gold the management fee.
Current gold predictions are for between a 20-40% decline over the coming couple of years if you believe the analysts. The current gold price isn't sustainable and is just where investors have fled while the markets sort themselves out.
feels like the GFC again , time to buy houses
Or file your taxes and Albo will send you $750 to get a Chinese UHD TV.
This is the one time in every 6 years that my defensive portfolio actually comes out ahead.
GOLD is ripping along nicely.Getting tired of winning
My plan is the same as usual. Work until I die.
I daresay you're not alone in this endeavour!
It is only a loss when you sell
Haven't bothered to check.
Moved out of international shares last year.
Minor % corrections on the ASX are irrelevant.
Smart fund managers should have been adjusting portfolios long ahead of this regardless.
Pretty much everything is down including Stake, CMC, and Commsec while SelfWealth is showing a captcha.
Game is rigged
Is The Great Taking in progress?
Like anything, panic selling lemmings will cause massive backlog in transactions. As the market moves at speed, orders cant be filled and so the panic continues.
Always HODL. And wait for the bottom.
Because if you didnt sell at the top, you've already lost.
When bottom? /s
The race to the bottom is fairly fast.
The turn, probably 6-8 weeks. That depends on the trade wars.
Some countries are already smartening up and adjusting their tariffs to 0%. Dumber ones are being retaliatory.
Hence my post the other week - I wouldn't be buying in 25 (unless long term hold or you saw a bargain (justified by data, not price)
@Benoffie: If you expect the bottom in about 2 months (around late May or June) why would you not be buying in 25?
Is it just because of uncertainty and letting things play out a bit first?justified by data
What data though?
Fundamentals analysis is probably as good as a crystal ball or coin flip at the best of times (especially when there is irrational exuberance), but with this fairly significant change in the macroeconomic landscape a lot of the historical data that feeds into such models may not be so relevant now.
And technical analysis rarely works except on short time horizons.@tenpercent: Not saying dont buy, just too many people on here think this is a place of free advice suitable for all and sundry.
My preferences obviously differ from others. I have preferred stocks I like - I understand their performance and know what my buy targets are.
But others take people's own opinions as some insight into how they should play the game. And I just think, for those unwilling, unable or uneducated, they should be more risk adverse.
As for data, too many buy shares because they know the name or it's a fad. But they have no clue what the business is doing, or the economy or anything else for that matter. In that sense, Super and ETFs are great, but international focus will take a beating this year. Sometimes I think buying blue chip and just waiting on dividends is the best way for many 🤷♀️
April 15th, as per the same 4-chan post that predicted a 30%+ share drop in early April about 40 days ago :P
If at this point you are using Stake. God save your soul.
Can you elaborate? What is the problem with Stake? My father's been using it and is trying to persuade me to set up an account
ultimately the U.S consumer will 'pay' for these tarrifs the only thing that concerns us is a 'trade war' but otherwise tarrifs are paid by the nations consumer - the yanks voted for these measures
on some extent that needed a way to raises taxes - Americans love blaming other countries so their own stupidity
on the flip side we might see the Chinese government throw stimulus around like no tomorrow which might help us survive this situation
7,343.30
-324.50 (4.23%)
Ouch
ASX200 is now at the end of 2023 level. S&P500 and NASDAQ as well — all 2024/2025 gains have been wiped.
Compared to the GFC, the losses on the ASX are light.
Hehe yeah.
But this is the issue. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of panic merchants trying to clamour off a ship that wasnt sinking.
🤷♀️
Must say though, the psychology is fascinating to watch.
good time to buy shares but i need to sell them for my new car… f to trump and americans who didnt vote
Fuk trump
Recession, rate cuts, Property to the moon? 🤔😏
Orange orang utang has done his circus
GLOBA; MARKETS HAVE COLLAPSED.
I'm sure the highly paid and experienced Super investment managers saw this coming and rejiggled our super investment portfolio into low risk temporarily right? /s
Would ya look at that, US and EU opened up this morning (Tuesday local).
lol
Opened +3.5%
Closed -1.5%Not a lol.
They dont recover 25% losses overnight.
People wanted to know when the buying would start. It's started. Itll sill drag on though for weeks.
Buckets out when it rains gold.
.not thimbles…..Peace out.
WB
Normally 25% swings aren't overnight..unless a fake tan muppet pulls the strings.
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me looking at the super balance
good news, i can retire this week - as long as i plan to live for 3 weeks after.