Stock Market in The Start or End Euphoria Phase?

Trying2SaveABuck on 18/07/2025 - 22:12

Anyone who doesnt know what Euphoria phase is refer to the below graph

https://phillipjamesfinancial.com/blog/the-stock-market-cycl…

Historically speaking July-August-September is more often a 'negative' period of global market including the ASX but we are hitting new highs almost daily and the U.S markets are near ATHs. Now it is has been 'great' on paper we are all getting richer either via direct investment and/or via super. I know a lot of people here are happily passively invested in the market.

For those Crypto bros dont worry BTC is 115k USD and ETH is over 3k - everyone pop champane?

Now im not saying we are getting for a crash anytime soon the market can remain irrational well longer then anyone of us can remain solvent, but we are 100% in a bull market and we have already had 2 'fairly' bullish years so there is a part of me that is like 'how long can this last?'

Global uncertainy, Wars, traffis and trade uncertainy? none of that seems to be 'phasing the markets' - now this isn't my 'frist rodeo' i know things can change and change quickly but i never thought we would be hitting all time highs with all that is going on.

Most people here 'dont' time the market the general consenses is you 'should not' but i dont agree there are surely somethings that tell you things are getting stupid…..

I also think the idea of basic index-ETF investing has 'gotten' a little to popular and it has made stock picking 'easier' (that is a different discussion)

At this point in time there a good stocks over valued

CBA is on a P.E of 29

JBH is on a P.E 27

etc

Now that is bad for established players …..but companies like

TPW is on a P.E of 758….(no that isnt a typo)

im starting to wonder if all this hype is the party before the 'horror' movie starts -

the Buffett line be 'fearful' when everyone is brave comes to mind? ….

Now i know no one knows exactly whats got to happen but from the 'few' more active investors on Ozbargain i thought i'd ask how you feeling? how is your strategy adapting to the current market?

i went in fairly hard around April when the markets sold off and im happy with the large rebound but im starting to think this is 'crazy' but i got no sign that the 'crazy' will end! anyone else reading the charts different? got a crystal ball? or tea leaves?

(i will note the technicals are a bullish af)

Poll Options

  • 71
    This Bull Market has a long way to Run
  • 62
    This Bull Market is close to ending
Financial

Comments

  • djones145 on 18/07/2025 - 22:13
    +3

    moo

  • jv on 18/07/2025 - 22:25
    -1

    baa

  • SBOB on 18/07/2025 - 22:29
    +18

    how is your strategy adapting to the current market?

    My strategy realises that
    - there are infinitely smarter financial analysts than me
    - there are far larger players that can manipulate the markets than me
    - any predictions or analysis I could potentially make based on current market information, far more backroom information is available to movers that would have already acted on that information long ago

    And so.
    - I make the same $ buys every week in broad market segment etf/s
    - I make the same $ investments in super to the same board market segment etf/s in direct share investments on regular batch moves from default high growth fund
    - I sit back and realise that even if I thought 'man I saw that coming I should have timed the market/buy/sell' , there's another 10 times the same 'thought' wouldn't have resulted in a benefit and I would have just been guessing.
    - i resolve to the fact that the craziness ends when it does there's always next week.

    • McMaferMur on 18/07/2025 - 22:33

      Agree dont try to game it just think long term we are nothing in the share market. Or if you have deep pocket put a side some $ for day trading

    • John Barosa on 18/07/2025 - 22:58
      -6

      My strategy is a lot simpler than urs

      • SBOB on 18/07/2025 - 23:01
        +10

        You posted before you're 20, living at home, going to uni, earn $250/week, and have $5k in shares
        Forgive me if I stick to my own financial strategy:)

        • John Barosa on 18/07/2025 - 23:04
          -7

          Fair enough. WE've got diff goals. I'm high risk, high reward, since I've got less capital, and ur playing it safe, cause ur retirement lies on this.

    • colin5000 on 20/07/2025 - 06:54

      100% this

    • Poor Ass on 20/07/2025 - 23:18

      Because you are dollar cost averaging and anticipate your ETF will go up in the long run. If you had a lump sum of cash would you just put it in all rather than dollar cost average?

  • Jaduqimon on 18/07/2025 - 22:36
    +3

    leaving your money in fiat form is far worse.

    • theHMASfriendship on 18/07/2025 - 22:50
      +17

      Especially a Fiat Punto those things had so many reliability issues

    • John Barosa on 18/07/2025 - 22:53
      -3

      That's what I"m saying

    • pegaxs on 19/07/2025 - 11:29

      Oh, I got plenty of money in Fiat… :D

      • GregRust on 21/07/2025 - 05:17
        +3

        How about lending your old pal Zoidberg a couple of bucks?

    • IcySpicyStew on 19/07/2025 - 15:16
      +6

      "Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B) has amassed the largest pile of cash ever held by a public company. At $325 billion…"

      https://www.investopedia.com/why-warren-buffett-is-holding-u…

      everybody needs cash to buy the crash

      • zathras on 19/07/2025 - 18:37
        -1

        So what percentage does Berkshire hold in cash?
        30% cash vs 70% shares?
        20% cash vs 80% shares?

        I'll bet they have a lot more in the sharemarket than in fiat currency still.

      • alexdagr8 on 19/07/2025 - 20:26
        +1

        Knowing what Berkshire has isn’t necessarily a reflection of a retail investors portfolio and shouldn’t be a reflection of people’s and your own portfolio.

        1. The cash Berkshire has is still put to use (in the bond market) - we as retail investors (non- company mum and dads that have money) do not participate in the bond market.
        2. Berkshire doesn’t see stocks the way others do - they buy a piece of a business in the form of a stock with the aim to hold it long term.
        3. Berkshire has mentioned that they see the entire market as overvalued (they don’t see good businesses at fair prices) this is also a reflection of the rise of retail investors (and possibly also a reflection in the rise of private equity and turning away from public markets for most businesses - look at Open AI, space X etc)
        4. Remember that it’s “time in the market” not “timing the market” especially as a retail investor.

        To that end:
        ARMR from Betashares as China and the US enter into a new Cold War arms race - gives exposure to the companies that produce arms (even if neither country fires a weapon… you win)

        • DRGN - ties to tech stocks in Chinas market
        • VGS is solid
        • VGAD
        • I’m staying away from the ASX apart from commodities (rare earths and miners) - our banks are overvalued.
        • diversification into LICs
        • property and precious metals as safe harbour.
        • keep some cash to throw in for a dip (any dip is short lived these days)
        • stay away from CFD’s or ETO’s as a retail investor.

        As a retail investor for most people - your best option with extra cash should be putting extra money into your super (to get a cash refund at tax time which you also put in) - until the government stuffs this.
        And on life stage option (so the fund can juggle your portfolio)
        The lowest fees for your super should be your focus (vanguard is in the Australian market now

    • JIMB0 on 19/07/2025 - 16:23
      +1

      Old Fiat's may be gutless and unreliable, but they sure are a hoot to drive.

  • JIMB0 on 18/07/2025 - 22:37
    +5

    The biggest risk is sitting in cash while inflation devalues it as the market goes ever higher. The same thing applies to property.

  • Kongzi on 18/07/2025 - 22:41
    -1

    Miao

  • amorn on 18/07/2025 - 22:45
    +1

    How long is your phase?

  • Pelicannn on 18/07/2025 - 22:46
    +2

    If i had only 3-5 years left until retirement, I would be worried, but with nearly 20 years… I am not concerned, even those who sold during the GFC because they were worried would have made bank since then if they just held.

    Investing in ETFs is not for short-term plays, so I am not concerned.

    • skid on 19/07/2025 - 10:42

      Not many remember or were invested through the GFC. I held (and DCA) through both the dotcom bust and GFC and am not making bank. More like set back ~6 years following the GFC.

      • mrtin on 19/07/2025 - 12:02
        +2

        Only been through gfc to date, but most if not all should be well ahead now even if they had invested at the very peak if they had a diversified normal boring portfolio.

      • Pelicannn on 19/07/2025 - 13:43
        +2

        Of course it entirely depends what you invested in, but if you had a standard S&P ETF or similar, you should definitely be up a minimum 300% since the height prior to the GFC.

  • Cluster on 18/07/2025 - 23:39

    The only valid answer: Maybe

  • Gdsamp on 18/07/2025 - 23:53
    +1

    Buyer's market
    And seller's market

  • payless69 on 19/07/2025 - 03:07

    https://companiesmarketcap.com/

    cba finally beat uber again.

  • DingoBilly on 19/07/2025 - 07:56
    +3

    Timing the market is the best way to lose money. Take your emotions out of it and just commit to a plan of buying each month or so regardless of price.

    So many people switched to cash at start of year because of Trump. The market did dip but since then has risen beyond that. People who switched to cash lost a lot of money.

    Just regularly buy, and ignore the media and all this stupid crap like you are writing. It's a good way to make a lot of money reliably in the long term.

    You talk a lot about PE and a bunch of other nonsense as well. Just realize it's irrelevant - all it takes is an announcement by Trump or a country in middle East attacking another and it goes up or down wildly. Your technical analysis means nothing and no expert will be able to predict the outcomes.

    • Trying2SaveABuck on 19/07/2025 - 08:23
      -3

      Timing the market is the best way to lose money. Take your emotions out of it and just commit to a plan of buying each month or so regardless of price.

      According to who?

      So many people switched to cash at start of year because of Trump. The market did dip but since then has risen beyond that. People who switched to cash lost a lot of money.

      those who brought like crazy after Liberation day and those buys are 'up signficantly' and your very comment here disproves 'you cant time the market' there are 'times' that are better to buy then others - you just cant time when those moments happen

      Just regularly buy, and ignore the media and all this stupid crap like you are writing. It's a good way to make a lot of money reliably in the long term.

      Sure, good advice

      • SBOB on 19/07/2025 - 08:49
        +1

        According to who?

        I'd prefer to listen to this guy's post

        https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/15415142/redir

        contribute to it regularly and dont worry about short term volatility
        [this is not financial advice just my opinion]
        It 'wont' get you rich quick but it will build steady compounding wealth

        • Trying2SaveABuck on 19/07/2025 - 08:52

          Good replay and you are correct in that and it is pretty much what i do but i though id see how people where feeling in the current market

          thanks

    • BluebirdV on 19/07/2025 - 17:13

      This.

  • welcomeUniverseWorld on 19/07/2025 - 08:25

    How much have you contributed so far in buying lambos for the market artists?

  • mskeggs on 19/07/2025 - 08:42
    +3

    There is a bit of faulty thought in some of the comments here.
    If you look at Cisco’s price in the internet bubble or US real estate in 2008 it is easy to see the down side of the bubble wipes out the majority of gains made in the lead up.
    If you bought CSCO stock each month all the way up in 1997 and all the way down in 2002 you lost a lot of money, and would still be in the red.

    You have to take the wins and move into other sectors if you are holding individual stocks, you can’t use a dollar cost averaging strategy on a single stock and hope for the kind of returns it delivers across an index.

    If you have lots of time to retirement, then a broad index investment with DCA is fine, but if you are picking stocks you need to book wins and find new places to stash the returns that are less correlated to the original investment.

    • SBOB on 19/07/2025 - 09:01
      +1

      and would still be in the red

      Just like when gambling, you should always chase your losses.

      • mskeggs on 19/07/2025 - 09:14
        +5

        90% of gambling addicts quit before the big win.

        • welcomeUniverseWorld on 20/07/2025 - 20:14

          99% of people, who thinks they are not gambling, ends up losing all to ensure the market artists buy their next lambo

    • Ahan on 20/07/2025 - 07:09

      This is theoretical. The average person is poor at picking winners. Hence, most people are DCA into ETFs..

    • CalmLemons on 21/07/2025 - 00:43

      Cisco is a bad example because what they did, everyone could do, which was make heaps of server equipment. Whereas the companies now are still making high margin billions.

      For nvidias case, what they do, is almost impossible for all but 1 or 2 companies to do, along with the software system and infrastructure to go with it.

      For the AI stocks, there is a long way to go as we lead into artificial general intelligence. It is like, being able to send email when the internet first started, that is where we are at with AI atm, we haven't even gone up to multiplayer games yet with AI.

      That said, when your plumber starts to recommend stocks…start selling.

  • Protractor on 19/07/2025 - 10:14

    Why do I think this topic has been borrowed from a higher intellect, somewhere else?

  • bbinc on 19/07/2025 - 10:38
    +2

    Need a third poll option “I’ve no f’n idea”
    Certainly not a buyers market atm. Keep cash on the sidelines and buy the dips.

  • IcySpicyStew on 19/07/2025 - 15:18
    +4

    Why Warren Buffett Is Holding $325 Billion in Cash?

    To buy the crash.

    • surfingedge on 19/07/2025 - 19:14

      How long has he been waiting for? At 94 years of age he may not live to see the crash

      • mskeggs on 20/07/2025 - 09:24
        +1

        Sure, but he has plenty of money so it’s his business/hobby now to be right.
        He has seen many more market ups and downs than almost everyone , and made lots of money cumulatively because sometimes he says “that’s enough” and moves over weight into cash.
        Having that cash when everything is cheap is when lots of money is made.

  • BluebirdV on 19/07/2025 - 17:17

    How about AI and exponential growth in the sector? Isn't it the new industrial revolution? Doesn't it have miles to run? Why is everyone saying it's a bubble?

    • alexdagr8 on 19/07/2025 - 23:13

      It’s all PE (private Equity) though (so not publicly listed)
      Nvidia is probably the closest we’ll get to profiting.
      And AMD because… competition
      And TSMC because they fabricate all these chips.
      but TSMC is a concern because Taiwan
      These industries are heavily in bubble territory.

    • mskeggs on 20/07/2025 - 09:26
      +2

      Do you think the railways, then radio, then automobiles, then computers , then internet etc.etc weren’t equally touted as the new big thing?
      All these things went to the moon in value, then crashed. You don’t get rewarded unless you take some profits before the crash.
      The crash happens faster than the growth.

      • BluebirdV on 20/07/2025 - 13:46

        I agree but won't it keep developing? There was a dotcom bubble and a crash but it still continues to grow to this day. Some companies like Amazon survived the bubble and went on to deliver serious profits. I think it has a long way to run but nobody can say when it becomes a bubble until it does.

        • mskeggs on 20/07/2025 - 14:03
          +1

          But if you put all your money into pets.com, or southern railroad or RCA near the top of the bubble (or even halfway up) and never took it out, you have done poorly.
          Nvidia is supplying the tools. OpenAI is supplying the software.
          Take a look at analogous companies from the Dotcom bubble, say, Cisco and Redhat or Netscape.
          It was very far from clear Microsoft and Apple would survive let alone thrive. Google emerged later and it seemed like Webvan (online supermarket orders) and Pets.com (online pet food/accessories) would be as successful as Amazon was with books.
          The money ended up being in advertising and taking a 30% take on App Store sales - extremely hard to predict in 1997!

        • tenpercent on 20/07/2025 - 17:37
          +1

          Depends where you think we are on this graph: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

  • alexdagr8 on 19/07/2025 - 17:18

    Hard to ascertain completely - retail investors have muddied the waters… so depends which market:
    ASX, NASDAQ, HANG SENG, NIKKEI.
    Everything has potential room to run… geopolitics can cause massive shocks.

    • whyisave on 20/07/2025 - 04:45
      +2

      geopolitics can cause massive shocks.

      Those geopolitics are 'deliberately' instigated, by those that can,
      to cause those shocks, so that the profit cycle can repeat again.

  • bathuu on 19/07/2025 - 18:17

    Markets are headed for all time high, stock, crypto, gold, silver…

    • zathras on 19/07/2025 - 18:41
      +2

      Those markets will always head higher (and you forgot real estate).

      The rich always prefer to convert fiat currency to other things because inflation just steadily destroys the value of cash.

    • Ahan on 20/07/2025 - 07:06

      You forgot to mention the property market. It's going crazy at the moment.

      • tenpercent on 20/07/2025 - 17:38

        Stock, crypto, gold and silver are all property.

  • [Deactivated] on 19/07/2025 - 18:18
    -4

    I am sure lib-nut trolls would post a post about Tasmanian Elections so that they can cry more under, after the results!

    • alexdagr8 on 19/07/2025 - 19:53

      Pretty sure no one cares about Tasmania

      • Trying2SaveABuck on 19/07/2025 - 20:21

        If im being honest i had no idea they had an election going? Was it even in the news in Victoria?

        All i heard about regarding the Political front was Mark Lathem and his angry af ex miss ripping him for wanting to threeway with some Green MP …. and he had some orgy or something for his 64th birthday according to his ex or something.

        In fairness this scandal probably makes me like Lathem more as I find it hilarious a bloke well into his 60s is trying to live like Jonny Sins

        • Protractor on 19/07/2025 - 20:46
          -1

          JHC
          Looks like the Tassie election is not the only thing you have little idea about.
          Not sure where you "hear this stuff", but change venues.

  • echelon6 on 19/07/2025 - 19:39

    wow TPW is wild - why pe so high

    • Trying2SaveABuck on 19/07/2025 - 20:56
      +1

      I dont know they have shown decent growth but this isnt a tech stock with scale like NVIDA my guess would be it is gstting pumped by a few communities i think Fool was pumping it at one stage

      Feels like rug pull Territory

  • plmko on 19/07/2025 - 21:32
    +3

    Currently whether we see a crash is solely based on what happens in Japan within 1 month, if the worst case happens we will see the unravelling over the months.

    I made some money on bullish calls in the past month or two. But currently accumulating safer yielding shares. You just never know…..

    • tenpercent on 20/07/2025 - 17:40

      What is expected to maybe or maybe not happen in Japan within 1 month?

  • try2bhelpful on 19/07/2025 - 22:15

    With Trump in charge anything could happen. There is no logic and certainly no commercial sense with anything he does. I think the market is running on hope and hyped up on red cordial. I have blue chip shares and haven’t sold out through any of the dips. We certainly are living in interesting times.

  • Ahan on 20/07/2025 - 07:06
    +4

    I am happy either way… Between me and my wife, we have half mil sitting in shares both inside and outside of super. I have stopped dollar cost averaging outside of super given the ATH and start collating cash in case a correction occur.

    If it continues to rise, my existing portfolio will benefit. If it falls, then it's buying time.

  • qaz182 on 20/07/2025 - 13:37
    +2

    How about option 3: There is no bull market and it's really just currency debasement

  • Briefcase Mong on 20/07/2025 - 16:57
    +2

    Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody… and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet. Nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways or in circles

    • amsaini15 on 20/07/2025 - 17:12

      Exactly. It's just a gamble.

      • mskeggs on 21/07/2025 - 20:16

        Sure, but in a horse race you can look at the horse who has won its lat 5 starts versus a 3 legged rocking horse.
        Nobody “knows” who will win, but one is very unlikely to beat the other.
        With the stock market you can make some assessments about which stocks are likely to go up, which down, and which are more/less likely to do so.

        It is a pretty sure bet Telstra will be in business next year, and it is a toss-up if AI-dream-company.io will still be around. So one is much riskier than the other. But AI is very faddish, so it is more likely AI-dream-company will soar, much more likely than Telstra.

    • tenpercent on 20/07/2025 - 17:41
      +1

      or in circles

      Well it's not going to go in circles if you're graphing it in the standard way, time vs price.

    • Mad Max on 20/07/2025 - 21:54

      Sometimes, somebody KNOWS…
      And sometimes, somebody MAKES it go up or down.

      • thebombout on 21/07/2025 - 13:36
        +1

        I expect there be a lot of "How did they think they would get away with that?" type comments when we watch a documentary about 2025 at some stage in the future… "And that's why we can't have nice things in 2040."

        • tenpercent on 21/07/2025 - 16:49
          -1

          That would be nice. Alas they got away with it in 2008 and even more so in 2019.
          They are feeling emboldened.

  • alexdagr8 on 22/07/2025 - 17:40
    +1

    Australia - apart from Banks (which I'd ignore) we have commodities (so mining) what Australia excels at is digging holes in the ground…

    probably the best ones to profit from this for us would potentially be rare earths (iron ore is already tapped and Simandou will smother supply)
    anything with Copper (BHP and Rio and they're already large enough and diversified and also subject to Iron ore prices - re: simandou above - so not too much room for growth) but most pure copper play companies are overseas.

    So that leaves:
    China and US markets - US is volatile, China probably has some growth if you can pick the right companies (but remember that is a bet against US exceptionalism) and it really only matters if they go to war (in which case your portfolio will be worthless for awhile)
    but because we're in a new global arms race/ cold war (countries are arming even if they arent destroying each other) - Betashares ARMR ETF is probably going to go on a tear as more NATO countries are expected to start spending more on defense.
    other areas to allocate some portfolio - south east asian countries (largest room to grow but higher risk)

    but noone has a crystal ball.

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