Melbourne: Car Theft Capital of Australia

mboy on 04/09/2025 - 22:10
Last edited 04/09/2025 - 22:17

The Insurance Council of Australia is the main industry body representing Australia’s general insurers, and an source for industry data and insights.

They issued a news release today about motor theft claims statistics, broken down by state & region for the first 6 months of 2025, compared to the first 6 months of 2024. Source.

Across both Metro & Country combined, every state recorded a modest decrease, except for Victoria which recorded an increase of 59%. The news release says Victoria "saw the largest annual increase on record", but they don't mention how far back that goes.

Melbourne alone, which was already the worst city for this statistic in the first half of 2024, has recorded an increase of 70% in the first half 2025.

State Region 2024 2025 Variance %
NSW Country 3,500 3,200 -9%
NSW Metro 2,500 2,600 4%
QLD Country 4,100 3,600 -12%
QLD Metro 3,000 2,700 -10%
SA Country 300 200 -33%
SA Metro 1,200 1,100 -8%
VIC Country 1,800 2,200 22%
VIC Metro 5,900 10,100 70%
WA Country 1,100 1,000 -9%
WA Metro 3,500 3,100 -11%

My motivation for this post is twofold:

Firstly, just to let fellow Melbournians know to be a bit more cautious since this is obviously a problem that is getting worse.

Secondly, to discuss why this is happening. It seems very odd to me that this is exclusively getting worse in Victoria, and especially Melbourne. What's the cause, and what needs to change?

Automotive Melbourne Victoria

Comments

  • drprox on 09/09/2025 - 09:28

    Suddenly even more glad I have a garage in regional Vic…

  • Splatcat on 09/09/2025 - 10:31

    @mboy Interesting post

  • Muppet Detector on 09/09/2025 - 19:01

    LOL using that viewpoint, if you really dig into the numbers, humans commit far more crimes than any other animal.

    This is twofold.

    Firstly, humans define/recognise more actions/behaviours as crimes and the executive functions of our higher brain development makes humans capable of more undesirable behaviours.

    Crime is a dynamic social construct whose goal posts are continually changing and expanding.

    • freeb1e4me on 09/09/2025 - 22:48
      -1

      Building on that, it’s also worth noting how power dynamics play a crucial role in shaping what gets defined as criminal. Often, those in positions of authority influence legal definitions to protect their interests, which means that not all harmful behaviours are criminalised equally

      • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 12:06

        Examples? I'm not sure that I understand what you're referring to/talking about.

    • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 16:33

      Oh, forgot about humans having opposable thumbs.

      My dog can't hold a machete because he doesn't have opposable thumbs.

      • mapax on 11/09/2025 - 16:41
        +1

        But surely if your dog had opposable thumbs you would have brought him up right and he would only use a machete for clearing brush, splitting kindling, cutting vegetables and processing meat?

        • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 16:51
          +1

          I can't even teach my dog to chew with his mouth closed. There's no hope for bringing this one up right.

  • GardenGnome on 11/09/2025 - 10:36

    Sadly, the governments around Australia have just let it rip in regard to crime and the failures of the justice system. From illicit drugs to cigarettes to alcohol they have just given up and shrugged their shoulders and said, 'What can we do?'. Victoria is the worst though, it's really bad.

    I would love to see if they have any statistics on how many offenders were on ice (methamphetamine) when the committed the crime or were arrested. I imagine 80 to 90 % were or are dependent, frequent users or addicts.

    People are right to point out the main cohort of people doing this offending are from U.K/European backgrounds. They have sort of become the forgotten people in today's Australia, drug addicted or dependent, jobless with zero education and left to rot on centerlink (pensions) while living in public housing with no hope for improving their lives while also dependent on the NDIS for support for their kids who have severe behavioral issues.

  • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 12:02
    +1

    while also dependent on the NDIS for support for their kids who have severe behavioral issues.

    Only if that behavioural issue is caused by/linked to a qualifying permanent disability.

    • GardenGnome on 11/09/2025 - 13:46
      +1

      It's obvious people in Australia have abused the NDIS and exploited it for support. If 1 in 35 Australians are on the NDIS there must be a good reason. The money for services is just too good, and parents are struggling supporting children who in most cases have high likelihood of severe behavioral issues. DR's are over diagnosing clients with autism to explain problematic behaviors in children, combined with rampant DR shopping and open rorts like buying alcohol, drugs, and crypto with NDIS funds the scheme is a total mess and has already lost its social license.

      Do I blame parents for wanting support and money for their children? No, they are just desperate for help. But the scheme is a joke.

      • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 14:15
        +1

        How to show that you're responding to clickbait propaganda and admitting you haven't put much effort into research before espousing your opinion.

        It's obvious people in Australia have abused the NDIS and exploited it for support.

        Yes. Probably more accurate to say it wasn't used as intended, but then the Govt bears significant accountability for this.

        There are always people who will exploit loopholes and Govt did fail to prevent a lot, but then they did seem to act quite slowly to close those loopholes once they became aware of them.

        It does seem like they are starting to get a few more ducks in a row atm though.

        If 1 in 35 Australians are on the NDIS there must be a good reason.

        The numbers make that look worse than it is. About 70% of participants will tap out once they are nine years old.

        The money for services is just too good, and parents are struggling supporting children who in most cases have high likelihood of severe behavioral issues

        As I said before, only behavioural issues linked to qualifying long term disabilities. Not all behavioural issues are disabilities. In fact, only two disorders are recognised as permanent disabilities which have behavioural issues covered by NDIS, and with the exception of ASD3, this is only covered until age 9. (Diagnosis of level2 ASD is currently under strict scrutiny as this was a significant area being exploited).

        and open rorts like buying alcohol, drugs, and crypto with NDIS funds

        Yeah, calling BS on this. Sure, maybe a few examples, but definitely not common or as rampant as you're making out.

        DR's are over diagnosing clients with autism to explain problematic behaviors in children,

        Sort of true in some cases, but only applicable for ASD 2, and that taps out once child is 9 atm. Regardless, govt in process of cracking down on this, including what the kids will have access to and how it is paid/managed to those who do qualify.

  • GardenGnome on 11/09/2025 - 16:15

    Some of what I posted is clickbait but just because its sensationalist doesn't make it wrong or untrue. But do your own research!

    You're right the governments both state and federal bare a lot (if not total) of responsibility for the failures of the NDIS and for the current crime crisis in Australian society. They have just let it rip with no foresight, planning or due diligence on how to run a national disability scheme or how to combat crime in the community.

    It doesn't matter if the child taps out at 9, they will transition as adults to another NDIS plan because the parents will complain to the media and what do governments care more about? Their media image and how many likes and clicks they get! I can 100% guarantee you the current children with NDIS funding will be transitioned onto new care packages when they turn 9.

    I'll add the biggest canary in the coal mine however is the rampant inequality in Australia now. The rich and well educated can afford the best DR's, lawyers, education, housing while the poor cannot and just eat shit from the government reliant on over burden services run by overworked and underpaid workers. Generations of people who are both young and old are stuck for life on centerlink pensions who can't study or work due to mental health and drug addiction and are dependent on public housing and in tandem the parents rely on NDIS and carer pensions for support.

    You cannot let people just rot on government welfare without supporting them in order to empower themselves and improve their lives and improve their social-economic mobility through work and education.

    • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 16:27

      t! I can 100% guarantee you the current children with NDIS funding will be transitioned onto new care packages when they turn 9.

      Well it won't be for behavioural issues captured by ASD 2 or delayed development due to disability.

      They will need to Aquire some other permanent disability.

      The purpose of inclusion of ASD 2 was to provide a pathway for early intervention, not lifelong treatment.

      I don't think you're understanding the Permanent Disability part of the D in NDIS.

      You get access to NDIS for some presentations of some disabilities because you have a disability, not because of your health needs or socio economic situation.

      • GardenGnome on 11/09/2025 - 20:44

        It won't matter about technical specifics the parents will just complain to the media and the government forced to back down on ending packages at 9 years. I'm not against people getting support or help in this country but there is going to be problems with the scheme when 1 in 35 Australian's are on it. It's too many people, and the cost is ridiculous!

        My main point is what are we doing for these people long term? There seems to be little planning for the future.

        We are just getting them dependent on government welfare without planning for the long-term future. What life are we going to leave these people in 10- or 20-years' time? A life stuck on pensions with no hope without any real education or skills dependent on public housing and government support.

        • Muppet Detector on 12/09/2025 - 07:26

          Did you know that if we didn't have the NDIS there would be no personal injury insurance for at fault or no fault disabilities or injuries?

          I have only engaged with you to try and set some of your misconceptions about the NDIS a little more balanced.

          Disability support is hardly welfare.

          And providing some autistic kids with early intervention is planning for the future.

          • GardenGnome on 12/09/2025 - 10:11

            @Muppet Detector: Thank you, you have informed me more on the NDIS.

            Agree to disagree though, if they cut off children once they tap out at 9 years old like you said where do they go next?

            They don't magically stop living or existing, do they? Where do they go for services then?

            • Muppet Detector on 12/09/2025 - 11:54

              @GardenGnome:

              Agree to disagree though, if they cut off children once they tap out at 9 years old like you said where do they go next?

              Evidence shows that early intervention improves outcomes for children with ASD 2 & ASD 1.

              By providing this assistance to the ASD 2 children, the early intervention period is complete by 9.

              The aim is to not have them move onto anything. The aim is to have them discharged from NDIS.

              Whilst ASD is a permanent disability, it is only ASD 3 adults which MAY have access to NDIS funding.

              NDIS is not generally available to anybody with ASD 2 or ASD 1, only ASD 2 children IF they have significant behavioural problems associated with ASD that will benefit from early intervention.

              This is why some diagnosticians are bumping the diagnosis from level one to level two, because there is no NDIS funding available for children with ASD 1.

              This is one of the reasons why there are more children being diagnosed with ASD => so the kids can access intervention when their parents can't or won't pay for it letting the children and by extension, society, suffer in the long term.

              They don't magically stop living or existing, do they?

              The early intervention is designed to give them the skills to manage their behavioural issues going forward.

              Where do they go for services then?

              Probably to the regular health care system just like anybody else without a disability that doesn't qualify for NDIS funding.

              NDIS doesn't cover every disability, nor does it cover every symptom associated with the disabilities it does cover.

              Remember that NDIS is not health care, that's what Medicare is for.

              • GardenGnome on 12/09/2025 - 14:12

                @Muppet Detector: Do you honestly think they will be discharged by 9 though? I know that's the plan, but the outcome will be different I believe.

                I just can't see parents going quietly and accepting their kids' packages will be taken away. You're an expert on this stuff, maybe I'm wrong?

                Again, all this discussion is worthless, if they can't control the NDIS spending it's gone anyway. You're right the government is to blame for its poor implementation and budget blowouts. But people will not accept the nation becoming bankrupt even though it's for a very worthwhile cause.

        • Muppet Detector on 12/09/2025 - 07:30

          when 1 in 35 Australian's are on it. It's too many people, and the cost is ridiculous!

          So, if you had a serious permanent disability, what kind of assistance would you like to help you live your best life?

          Or maybe we could just shuffle you off to some institutional nursing home and hide you away from society for the rest of your life?

          Or, I don't know, maybe we could just euthanise the disabled, then they'd cost us nothing.

          • GardenGnome on 12/09/2025 - 09:55

            @Muppet Detector: That's uncalled for and not what I'm trying to convey. I'm not advocating to continue any of the mistakes of the past. I support helping vulnerable people and giving the right support for anyone who needs it, I'm not against the NDIS just way it's been run and implemented.

    • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 16:47
      +1

      Some of what I posted is clickbait but just because its sensationalist doesn't make it wrong or untrue. But do your own research!

      I've been researching Autism since 1999 and NDIS since 2011.

      My Negligence Law lecturer was among those helping to create it (and overhauling the entire Negligence Law legislative framework of which NDIS is a result) and led a group (including uni students :)) responsible for critiquing the IPP report and forwarding further recommendations to Ms Gillard.

      I'm willing to bet that my research is a lot more extensive than yours is.

      • GardenGnome on 11/09/2025 - 20:32

        You would win that bet, I have no problem admitting when I'm not the expert which I'm not. I'm just giving you my opinion based on articles and work life experience. From experience there is a direct link between neurological development issues and autism and ADHD with severe behavioral issues in young people. What people don't get is that judges see this evidence when they come before them, they see their home environment is trash and unstable, recognize their poor mental health and acknowledge the effects of drug and alcohol use and the main point they know how prison does not rehabilitate people which in the end is why they bail them.

    • Muppet Detector on 11/09/2025 - 17:27
      +1

      You're right the governments both state and federal bare a lot (if not total) of responsibility for the failures of the NDIS and for the current crime crisis in Australian society.

      Just clarifying that the NDIS is national and the crime to which we're referring here is managed by the states.

      Fed govt can't legislate for non Commonwealth crimes.

      You cannot let people just rot on government welfare without supporting them in order to empower themselves and improve their lives and improve their social-economic mobility through work and education.

      Completely agree with you here, but we can only provide what we can afford and somehow, we seem to be providing a lot more assistance now than what we were say, 20 years ago.

      • GardenGnome on 12/09/2025 - 09:45

        Yes, I understand the difference between federal vs state hence why I mentioned both.

        The problem is are we any better than 20 years ago? I don't think so. There may be more money being wasted but it isn't getting the right outcomes. We have a huge homelessness crisis, housing crisis, illicit drugs are everywhere and it's basically a pandemic of misery, youth crime and crime has spiraled out of control. Yet we are spending more money than ever on vulnerable people with zero progress or positive outcomes.

        I want to see vulnerable people thrive and progress in life, no one should be left to rot dependent on government assistance or left to rot swallowed up by the criminal justice system. I also want to see better outcomes for disabled people on the NDIS, give them a future or at least some way to improve their current lives. I want to see our youth get a great education and have a good job and make a really positive impact on society.

        • FXx on 12/09/2025 - 17:26

          No, we're not any better than 20yrs ago.

          In terms of standard of living we're worse, much worse. Our kids can forget about realistically owning a home from scratch. You're the recipient of wealth, or you're a renter for life. Deal with it. Albo has said himself, Labor will not implement policy that puts downward pressure on property prices.

          Mass immigration is now pushed by our 'left' party, argue, say you want more opportunity for your children, they'll call you a racist. Who has the most to benefit from mass immigration? Big business. The idealistic lefties are now doing big businesses' job for them, in the name of virtue. Sheer masterstroke.

          Our government IS allowing people to "rot on government welfare", how do we know this? Number one, they're broke (federal and Vic state), number 2, they're both complicit with mass immigration. The country cannot cope with the strain caused by more and more people flooding in without the respective services and funding to compensate.

          They're complicit in funding and not fixing a broken, abused NDIS, often that doesn't get funding to those it was actually designed to help!

          They're complicit in a system that has led our indigenous to fall further behind, despite the endless social virtue and mass funding.

          They're complicit in a system afraid of being seen as 'racist' if choosing to address the growing, concerning crime issue in Victoria.

          My favourite, Climate Change. They propose that Net Zero is required in order for us to help save the planet, to rid it of the 1% we cause, right? Well, Australia is inconveniently the 2nd largest coal exporter, and I believe 2nd largest gas exporter (liquid / dry) on the planet. Or in other words, mass enablers of carbon emission creation offshore.
          Why the Paris Agreement doesn't take into account carbon creating material exported, only used is a question nobody ever asks. Yes, Australia might get to Net Zero, we simply cannot afford to hold on to luxuries such as free healthcare and the NDIS without enabling China and India to pollute though. Incredible.

          We exist in a society today where what you say you stand for is a lot more important than what your actions suggest. For the powerful, it's perfectly convenient.

  • AnnoyingEshayLad on 15/09/2025 - 12:47

    in this thread - glorified armchair crime detectives

  • drift7rs on 17/09/2025 - 15:23

    Perhaps we're living in an era where we need to start having physical car keys to start the car again, and to take a fuse out before leaving the car for an extended period of time… sad stuff :(

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