Melbourne: Car Theft Capital of Australia

mboy on 04/09/2025 - 22:10
Last edited 04/09/2025 - 22:17

The Insurance Council of Australia is the main industry body representing Australia’s general insurers, and an source for industry data and insights.

They issued a news release today about motor theft claims statistics, broken down by state & region for the first 6 months of 2025, compared to the first 6 months of 2024. Source.

Across both Metro & Country combined, every state recorded a modest decrease, except for Victoria which recorded an increase of 59%. The news release says Victoria "saw the largest annual increase on record", but they don't mention how far back that goes.

Melbourne alone, which was already the worst city for this statistic in the first half of 2024, has recorded an increase of 70% in the first half 2025.

State Region 2024 2025 Variance %
NSW Country 3,500 3,200 -9%
NSW Metro 2,500 2,600 4%
QLD Country 4,100 3,600 -12%
QLD Metro 3,000 2,700 -10%
SA Country 300 200 -33%
SA Metro 1,200 1,100 -8%
VIC Country 1,800 2,200 22%
VIC Metro 5,900 10,100 70%
WA Country 1,100 1,000 -9%
WA Metro 3,500 3,100 -11%

My motivation for this post is twofold:

Firstly, just to let fellow Melbournians know to be a bit more cautious since this is obviously a problem that is getting worse.

Secondly, to discuss why this is happening. It seems very odd to me that this is exclusively getting worse in Victoria, and especially Melbourne. What's the cause, and what needs to change?

Automotive Melbourne Victoria

Comments

  • brendanm on 04/09/2025 - 22:11
    +43

    Yes, it's a complete mystery…

    • mboy on 04/09/2025 - 22:14
      +1

      I'm asking legitimately here. Is it just youth crime? And if so, why isn't it affecting other states? I thought youth hooning was a big problem in parts of QLD, but according to the data, their theft claims have dropped.

      • freeb1e4me on 04/09/2025 - 22:56
        +30

        Victoria has the highest ever arrests of young offenders in 2024–25 — with a big proportion of that in Melbourne metro areas.

        This might be attributed to the state being too lenient. For years, Victoria had some of the most lenient bail laws in Australia.

        Another reason is repeat offenders. About 10% of young offenders are responsible for around 60% of youth crime.

        Melbourne is seen as a hotspot for “key programming” theft devices. These devices, smuggled or bought online, allow thieves to plug into a car’s OBD port and program a blank fob to start the vehicle.

        It is recommended to buy a OBD port lock. If possible lock your car in the garage. Hide and lock away keys.

        • mboy on 04/09/2025 - 23:11
          +6

          Great reply and good advice.

          I wasn't aware of the existence of the "key programming" theft devices. I googled them just now, they're mentioned on the police.vic.gov.au website:

          Thieves now have access to third party electronic devices. The number of key programming devices for sale has led to levels of car theft not seen in Victoria since 2002.

          Thieves target specific car makes that are easy to access electronically. These models often use electronic push start technology and don't need ignition key to start. One in five cars are now being stolen using this method. Some makes and models are being targeted more than others:

          Holden Commodore 2013 - 2017
          Toyota Corolla 2015 - 2024
          Toyota Hilux 2016 - 2023
          Toyota Landcruiser 2008 - 2021
          Toyota Rav4 2019 - 2024
          Toyota 86 2012 - 2017
          Toyota Camry Prado 2012 - 2022
          Subaru Impreza/WRX 2015 - 2018

          Source.

          So is this something that car manufacturers need to address? Seems like a pretty serious security vulnerability.
          And why is it just Melbourne that is a hotspot for these devices? Why is Sydney off the hook, for example?

          • theHMASfriendship on 05/09/2025 - 05:07
            +34

            @mboy: Ah yes the Toyota Camry Prado

          • shaybisc on 05/09/2025 - 09:13
            +1

            @mboy: Are Holden Commodores desirable now?

          • capslock janitor on 05/09/2025 - 11:42

            @mboy: Luckily our rav4 is 2018?

          • chrisd262 on 05/09/2025 - 13:07
            -7

            @mboy: If your car is stolen with keyless entry insurance is cancelled immediately as owner has not taken steps to secure car.

            Use steering wheel locks.

            • Ahoon on 05/09/2025 - 13:46

              @chrisd262: Faraday pouch for the fob works better, it stops relay theft attacks on keyless cars.

              • pulpfiction on 05/09/2025 - 16:11
                +2

                @Ahoon: Alas that’s not a common method anymore. They generally access the CANBUS network from outside the car. They don’t need the keys at all.

                • Ahoon on 05/09/2025 - 16:44
                  +1

                  @pulpfiction: Sure, CAN bus injection exists, but it’s slow and looks dodgy, taking a few minutes under the wheel arch/headlight. Relay theft is still the biggest attack vector, much more casual and low-risk, and affects a wider range of cars. Newer cars are adding encrypted CAN, but relay attacks still work unless the fob has motion sensing, you block the signal, or turn off keyless entry.

                  • pulpfiction on 05/09/2025 - 19:38
                    +2

                    @Ahoon: I’ve not seen footage of a relay attack in a long time. All keys since the early 2020s have a motion sensors which stop transmitting when the key isn’t moving. This renders relay useless.

                    Join the car theft facebook groups with video footage of this. Gone in 2.5 minutes from pulling a headlight to access the CANBUS, to cutting a digital key to driving away. It’s very efficient.

                    Latest Landcruisers and Prados tend to require a panel cut, but that is usually done in advance (again, relay does not work for these).

                    • Ahoon on 05/09/2025 - 22:05

                      @pulpfiction: Not entirely true, relay attack is still alive and well in the right spot, especially for cars made before 2023, and anyway 2023+ cars are reasonably safe against both CAN bus and relay attacks. Shopping centres are perfect, one bloke waits at the entrance, confirms the owner’s gone in, signal gets relayed, and the car’s gone without anyone pulling headlights or cutting panels. Looks smooth and casual, no tools in sight, and way less dodgy.

                      • pulpfiction on 05/09/2025 - 22:44
                        +1

                        @Ahoon: Interesting. I wonder if I’ve not seen it due to the setting. People can easily share footage from home security where relay is useless for more modern cars. Harder to get footage for relay attacks in public places.

                        The security for Toyota in particular is well and truely cracked at least till 2024. Here’s one of (sadly) many examples: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1LpS8UMgXK/?mibextid=wwXIfr

                • brendanm on 06/09/2025 - 08:24

                  @pulpfiction: How would one access the can bus wirelessly?

                  • pulpfiction on 06/09/2025 - 09:50
                    +1

                    @brendanm: It’s not wirelessly. Depending on the car they can pull it from under the wheel arch, others by removing the headlights.

                    For Landcruisers, they cut a hole in front passenger door or they cut the rear panel. The damage doesn’t matter as given the value these are then chopped and sent offshore.

                    • brendanm on 08/09/2025 - 16:46

                      @pulpfiction: That's hardly "from outside the car".

                      • pulpfiction on 08/09/2025 - 17:21

                        @brendanm: Well physically they are outside of the car. They pull the cable outside of the car to connect their device. They then open it whilst outside of the car, then they enter the car. Whatever you want to call that, it's what they're doing.

            • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 15:40
              +2

              @chrisd262: I know which end you pulled that "information" from.

      • Murkymerv on 04/09/2025 - 23:57
        +20

        Melbourne , Victoria's open prison !

        • rsw65 on 05/09/2025 - 21:34
          +1

          I had never thought of it in these terms - but now everything about the crime wave and the lack of enforcement and curtailment makes sense - they are going to do nothing and let the inmates of Melbourne sort it out amongst ourselves - Prison Justice.

      • burningrage on 05/09/2025 - 00:03
        +11

        There is huge correlation with the kind of government we have here and crime statistics. This should not be a surprise given similarities in USA.

        • rv3392 on 05/09/2025 - 11:05
          +7

          I don't think it really makes sense to compare with the USA. They're a completely different country - different society, different laws.

          According to the stats above there are literally states in Australia with the same "kind of government" (if I'm understanding what you mean by that) as Victoria that have had decreased car thefts.

        • [Deactivated] on 05/09/2025 - 12:14
          -2

          When you realise that there is nothing worth working for (building a business, employing people) - instead of everything being taken from you in the form of taxation and the only way to earn money is through either "unemployment benefits" or "working for the government" most give up and realise a life of crime is easier.

      • Eeples on 05/09/2025 - 16:35
        +2

        ‘Just youth crime’

        You would need a demographic break down before dumping in young ppl.

        • kidz821 on 06/09/2025 - 15:39
          +4

          I can even tell u what ethics they are
          This is the ugly truth

      • MrFrugalSpend on 07/09/2025 - 11:17
        +5

        Queensland voted in Crisafulli who introduced laws that actually penalise youth crime, skipping bail etc.

        Argue what you like about the long-term impact - there's plenty of argument about that I frankly don't care about… but in the short term, where people who were previously breaking into houses to get keys and stealing cars and crashing them etc repeatedly over and over but still being re-released into the community repeatedly - where they are now actually being physically restrained from doing so, that will reduce the numbers at least short-term.

        • Some Random Guy on 07/09/2025 - 13:28
          +1

          This ignore that QLD had decreasing (youth only?) Crimes rates from 2010s til now under their Labor with the gym guy. Not sure how much the latest LNP bobble head that was voted in not even a year ago has to do with anything

    • reactor-au on 05/09/2025 - 07:40
      +12

      Yes, it's a complete [Labor] mystery…

      • Some Random Guy on 07/09/2025 - 13:29
        +2

        "Yes I have confirmation bias and, no, I'm not self aware"

      • Eeples on 05/09/2025 - 16:36

        Source - liberal staffer.

        • [Deactivated] on 05/09/2025 - 19:35
          -5

          Source - someone that uses their head and has seen the decline of Victoria from the government spending from afar. Which is spending over $100 million in interest payments monthly for the level of debt the state Labor government has racked up.
          I would never live in Victoria

    • diddy50 on 08/09/2025 - 16:12
      +2

      Break Bail, Go to jail….

      oh wait. the criminals matter more than the victims. boo hoo

  • oscargamer on 04/09/2025 - 22:16
    +73

    Lack of consequences for actions

    • Seni0r El Cheapo on 05/09/2025 - 11:08
      +3

      THIS!!!

    • BadGiraffe on 08/09/2025 - 16:59
      +1

      Oh, there are consequences. Get caught, brought in for processing, out before dinner.

      • oscargamer on 08/09/2025 - 17:21

        Late for maccas then?

        • BadGiraffe on 08/09/2025 - 17:24
          +2

          Putting a maccas next to every police station isn't a bad idea.

  • Ryanek on 04/09/2025 - 22:16
    +1

    The Port of Melbourne.

  • Some Human on 04/09/2025 - 22:18
    +35

    There's a lot of sudenese in melbourne.
    Probably not relevant to this conversation though.
    Probably.

      • Some Human on 04/09/2025 - 23:19
        +79

        Yep, let's just pretend stereotypes are based on nothing.
        Literally had one feel me up and try to steal my purse on the train a while back and I'm still salty about it.

          • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 06:09
            +41

            @freeb1e4me: Wow, dismissing a sexual assault victim, pathetic.

              • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 08:00
                +5

                @gyrex: Read that users comments again.

                • gyrex on 07/09/2025 - 09:48
                  -1

                  @brendanm: Meh, I like dark humour. People are way too sensitive these days and get offended by anything and everything.

                  • brendanm on 07/09/2025 - 11:09
                    +4

                    @gyrex: Read back through the comments. That guy was the first one offended.

              • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 09:38
                +5

                @freeb1e4me: The absurdity of being robbed and assaulted?

                  • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 15:44
                    +5

                    @freeb1e4me: That commented said they'd been robbed and sexually assaulted. You said they were lucky that they got assaulted for free.

                    Again, wher is the absurdity in getting robbed and sexually assaulted?

                      • The Wololo Wombat on 05/09/2025 - 17:08

                        @freeb1e4me: We all got the sarcastic 'joke'. Don't worry. That's not the issue here.

                      • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 19:08

                        @freeb1e4me: You still haven't said what the absurdity of the situation is. The robbery? Or the sexual assault?

                          • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 20:33

                            @freeb1e4me: So you don't know, and just tried to use it as an excuse?

                              • brendanm on 06/09/2025 - 08:26
                                +4

                                @freeb1e4me: I think I get to it now. The absurdity is you getting upset about implied racism, but laughing at sexual assault.

          • diddy50 on 08/09/2025 - 16:13

            @freeb1e4me: I would be binned or banned from OzB if I wrote what I really think of this disgusting comment. SHAME ON YOU

        • [Deactivated] on 05/09/2025 - 22:38
          -2

          Let’s roll play:
          I’ll be the Sudanese and you be “some human” again on the train.

          I’ll start:
          “Click click” (makes African language sounds enthusiastically)
          Now you say “no, don’t touch me there”

          Police enter the carriage
          I slyly hand back the purse..
          You kick me where I become a permanent child soldier - falling to the ground and making click click noises denoting the tribe I originally come from.

          I tell the police that “you were asking for it, look at what you were wearing”
          Police look at you… then, taken aback look again incredulously…
          (Jeans and a 3 layers with no tight fitting clothes…?)

          Justice prevails, arrested and deported.
          I cannot believe it - I don’t lose a hand like I would where I’m from, I am not shot in the back of the head and put down like an animal like I would be back in Sudan. My family is not forced into slavery.. I am simply nicely told I will go back.

          I tell my tale and spread stories amongst the tribe how I was “this” close to spreading my love (HIV) to “some human” in a far away paradise. I might go back under my brother’s name.

          You now carry a brick in your purse like this on public transport and know how to use it..

          https://youtu.be/wf8CGO5UguU

          Fin

        • BadGiraffe on 08/09/2025 - 17:03

          Holy crap. Sorry to hear that. Never mind the stereotype, but that should never have happened. Did you manage to knee him in the balls or something?

        • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 08:30
          +15

          What's the *ist for someone who normalises sexual assault?

            • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 09:18
              +4

              @freeb1e4me: Really doubling down. Hopefully you're on a list somewhere.

                • brendanm on 05/09/2025 - 09:40
                  +5

                  @freeb1e4me: The list of morons who cry "racism" at everything while minimising sexual assault would be more appropriate.

                  • freeb1e4me on 05/09/2025 - 09:52
                    -8

                    @brendanm: You can stop clutching those pearls now

                    • bargaino on 05/09/2025 - 12:24
                      +3

                      @freeb1e4me: Strange. You seem to be the one expressing moral outrage.

                      But you accuse others of pearl clutching? Zero self-awareness there.

                      • freeb1e4me on 05/09/2025 - 12:41
                        -7

                        @bargaino: Moral outrage? Please. That’s just your weak excuse for being wilfully blind to racism. Pointing it out isn’t outrage—it’s basic human decency. But I guess facts and empathy are too much effort for you

                        • bargaino on 05/09/2025 - 12:44
                          +2

                          @freeb1e4me: So you don't think you are trying to take moral high ground? really?

                          "basic human decency", you might as well be quoting Mary Whitehouse. Can you really not see the parallel?

                            • bargaino on 05/09/2025 - 13:06
                              +2

                              @freeb1e4me:

                              I would avoid framing youth crime by ethnicity, because it can stigmatise entire communities

                              I agree. That was a completely factual comment, and made a valid point. Calling out the problems of communities can lead to unfair treatment of good members.

                              But when you shifted from you own preferences to calling others racist, it became moral grandstanding.
                              And the "pearl clutching" metaphor ironic.

                              I understand you don't think certain facts should be brought up in public, because of your personal values. But don't force that on others.

                              • freeb1e4me on 05/09/2025 - 13:47
                                -4

                                @bargaino:

                                But when you shifted from you own preferences to calling others racist

                                Please, it’s not shifting. They are two separate comments - The second based on the results from the first. Imo, it’s racist to neg the comment. I thank all those that upvoted behind the scenes - there’s a lot of you! Others can decide for themselves

                                it became moral grandstanding.

                                You already got a response here

                                But don't force that on others.

                                Please, I have not forced anything. You’re just another person weighing in after skimming part of the thread.

          • [Deactivated] on 08/09/2025 - 08:11
            +1

            @brendanm: Melbournist, victorianist?
            Laborist?
            Alboist?

      • studentl0an on 05/09/2025 - 11:28
        +20

        When crows notice patterns we call them intelligent.

        When people notice patters coffeeinmyveins calls them racist.

    • [Deactivated] on 05/09/2025 - 12:15
      -7

      never met one - but the first time i do, i hope its not with a knife to my throat and an erection in my backside (the only type of people that carry knives)

    • Eeples on 05/09/2025 - 16:38

      You would probably need a demographic breakdown before slyly dumping on anyone.

    • JimmyF on 04/09/2025 - 22:23
      +19

      The racist comments are just sad. Always easy to blame a group you don't like.

      If the shoe fits…..

        • trevor99 on 04/09/2025 - 22:39
          +37

          Sure but don't suppress the truth either. What are the numbers?

        • JimmyF on 04/09/2025 - 22:49
          +15

          LOL racist garbage? If the shoe fits, it fits….. Cry my a river if you think otherwise.

          How about you stop pretending things are not happening. Its not like the numbers don't tell the truth.

          • freefall101 on 05/09/2025 - 00:57
            +6

            @JimmyF: How about you supply us with those numbers then?

            If you really want to go into the numbers, it's not race that matters, it's gender. Males commit far more crimes than females, regardless of race.

            Yes, Sudanese people are overrepresented in terms of crime, but they're a tiny part of the population. So they can't cause any kind of increase in crime like OP suggests. It takes Aussie born people also being involved in crime to contribute that much of an increase, and it's almost always men doing it.

            So why are men such crime ridden (profanity)? If you want to decrease crime and you want to talk about the numbers, you target men, not African born immigrants.

            • JimmyF on 05/09/2025 - 08:02
              +11

              @freefall101:

              If you really want to go into the numbers, it's not race that matters, it's gender. Males commit far more crimes than females, regardless of race.

              LOL using that viewpoint, if you really dig into the numbers, humans commit far more crimes than any other animal.

              Yes, Sudanese people are overrepresented in terms of crime, but they're a tiny part of the population

              The OP or me have never said anything about Sudanese to date. My comments are about calling a spade a spade, nothing more, nothing less. Nothing to do with a certain race.

              If you bothered to read the OP post, they are asking what caused this increase. Nothing about race or a group of people causing it. That is your views being weaved into it.

              So why are men such crime ridden (profanity)? If you want to decrease crime and you want to talk about the numbers, you target men, not African born immigrants.

              As you raised it, no one is targeting African born immigrants because they are racist against them, they are calling out a group of people who as you said yourself are overrepresented in the numbers. When a small % of the population is causing a larger % of the crime, you get the biggest bang for your dollars by focusing on this area.

              So yes, if that means Sudanese Men like you claim, then so be it. It is how you have a homogeneous society by addressing these issues and not pretending they don't exist as everyone is too scared to be called a racist.

              Its not racist to call out bad social behavior.

              • freefall101 on 05/09/2025 - 09:36
                +3

                @JimmyF: Person you are replying too called out the post above specifically mentioning Sudanese. Jesus dude, stop making a mountain out of a molehill.

                That post wasn’t calling out bad behaviour either, it was apportioning blame. This thread is about the rise in crime, not that crime happens. The rise has nothing to do with race, because you can take out the crimes committed by Sudanese in Melbourne and the numbers are rising anyway.

                You never answered my bit about supplying numbers either, any reason for that? You keep saying you want to talk numbers then go off on unrelated tangents that are very race specific. Why is that?

                • JimmyF on 05/09/2025 - 10:26

                  @freefall101:

                  Jesus dude, stop making a mountain out of a molehill.

                  That would be you.

                  That post wasn’t calling out bad behaviour either, it was apportioning blame

                  If the shoe fits…. :)

                  You never answered my bit about supplying numbers either, any reason for that?

                  I'll supply the numbers for the racist comment I made, which I haven't made one.

                  You keep saying you want to talk numbers

                  No, I said the numbers tell the truth. Go look them up yourself if you think they don't reflect the shoe fitting.

                  • freefall101 on 05/09/2025 - 11:06
                    +3

                    @JimmyF:

                    I'll supply the numbers for the racist comment I made, which I haven't made one.

                    So there are no numbers?

                    No, I said the numbers tell the truth. Go look them up yourself if you think they don't reflect the shoe fitting.

                    So there are numbers?

                    I looked up the only numbers you seem to recognise but they didn't help much

            • sakurashu on 05/09/2025 - 11:02
              +2

              @freefall101: Of course they can cause a large increase in crime when you take into account multiple offences per person regardless of the smaller number of unique offenders.

              Here are plenty of stats and breakdowns on the ongoing conversation - https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joi…

              We should target young, poor, african born men by the sounds of it….

              Why wouldn't you want to address over-representation in crime of up to 70x?

              • freefall101 on 05/09/2025 - 11:22
                +4

                @sakurashu: I think you missed my point, we shouldn't target anyone based on demographics, we should target criminals. It's much easier than trying to profile people. As that article says

                This is not about ethnicity or nationality to us; it is about criminality

                The stats seem pretty clear to me too: being a poor, young African male makes them a target for these groups, being a poor, young African male doesn't make you a criminal.

                Statistics provided by the Victoria Police and the CSA show that there are a relatively small number of overseas born offenders compared to Australian born. In their submission, Victoria Police stated:
                The crime rate for the overseas born groups was lower than the crime rate for Australian born.
                The number of unique alleged youth offenders aged between 10-24 is steadily declining.
                Unique Alleged offenders, aged 10-17, who were born overseas averaged more alleged offender incidents than those who were born in Australia.
                A smaller cohort of youth offenders are now committing more serious offences at a higher rate.
                Networked youth offending is a driver of this increase in the rate and seriousness of offending.
                Networked youth offending involves young people from diverse ethnic backgrounds.

                If we want to address this over-representation, you don't start with race, because clearly the current batch of immigrants coming in aren't the problem. However there's something unique about a small subset. We should of course be making sure that opportunities are there and stop kids slipping out of the system - plus target those who are radicalising these kids. Because the driver of crime here isn't race, it's these networks sucking kids in (who, again, are mostly Australian).

                • [Deactivated] on 05/09/2025 - 21:18
                  -1

                  @freefall101: You mean Labor voters…? because they’re the network that are in power, sucking these kids in (and they’re mostly Australian)

            • tenpercent on 05/09/2025 - 12:29
              +1

              @freefall101: Let's compare (bad) apples and (bad) apples here.

              1. What percentage of Sudanese people in Australia commit crimes?
              2. What percentage of Men in Australia commit crimes? (Note I am not asking what parcentage of crimes in Australia are comited by men, which is a completely different question.)
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