Unless you live in a particularly tech-y apartment, own a house, work somewhere that will let you charge, or rent a house that happens to have a garage with power, you have pretty much zero capacity to charge your vehicle with any semblance of regularity. I don't have any figures, but I reckon that's a significant fraction of Australian car users gone in those categories.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
How quickly were smartphones adapted? They needed new technology (for mobile internet!). How about phones? Who put up all those landlines? What about cars in the first place? They had to build roads!
Point is, if a technology is beneficial it will be adopted. I don't think it will take that long, the only thing standing in the way is a little investment into some simple infrastructure. It's not a gargantuan impossible task.
Point is, if a technology is beneficial it will be adopted.
Adopting a new technology is different from replacing an old technology. All of the things you've mentioned allowed people to do things they could have never done before.
Mobile phones? Wow! I can talk to people without having to sit at my desk!
That's a very different proposition to electric cars, which basically do the same thing as petrol cars and only marginally better for the vast majority of people.
@p1 ama: How about the move from cassette to CD to USB in cars? They all serve the same purpose. I still remember CD player in cars was such a thing around 10-15 years ago. Now it will be hard press to find a CD player in a new car.
I think different technology will co-exist for a number of years. Realistically there will be a mix of ICE / hybrid / electric for the next 15 years or so before electric become the majority.
Erm, they had "roads" and trade routes WAY before cars. What do you think horse carriages traveled on before the 1900's?
You must have not paid attention in history class…
At least 30 years. We have an amazing ability to kick the can down the road a bit further.
I just bought a new diesel. So for me, not in my lifetime.
You bought a diesel just as EU regulators are tightening emissions standards towards total ban, and automakers are gradually retreating from it? Good timing!
The timing is perfect. Australia isn't going to ban ICE for another 25 to 35 years.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fo…
@whooah1979: good find! far too many people on here talking assumptions and too lazy to research a bit.
@happirt: …and by the time the ban happens all 3 people who still want to buy a new ICE car will be most upset.
@D C: 35 years is about the last of the baby boomers. That leaves Gen X which still loves their turbo v6, v8, supercharger, rotary, boxer engines, etc. There should be more than 3 of them when that time comes.
That leaves Gen X which still loves their
I'm Gex-X and I don't really give a crap about that stuff.
People will vote with their wallet, and if your wallet is happy enough with the increasing costs of ICE, well, good for you.
@whooah1979: Most of them probably love the power of those v8, turbo, rotary engines. Electric vehicles can easily provide solar power, and without the noise, fumes and heat that an ICE puts out. Sure, I love the grumble of a big v8 with a lumpy cam, but at the end of the day it is getting thrust back in the seat that is the best bit. We just associate noise with speed but that can change.
@Euphemistic: It just isn't the same without the smell, noise or flames.
https://youtu.be/qvWxhhi0_yk
https://youtu.be/7zBFeAPSpbM
Good question. The cheapest and easiest way to charge an electric car will probably be at home. I'm dubious on the viability of commercial charging stations. If electric cars really take off and petrol gets more expensive then this could pose a serious problem for apartment owners who do not have suitable car parking. This could put downward pressure on apartment prices as those residents are forced to pay for more expensive petrol or juggle charging stations.
With driverless cars not far behind the EV paradigm shift, I think it is prudent to see some organic behavioural change before making any huge commitment.
Perhaps carsharing becomes a bigger thing, decentralization of cities, mega parking complexes, a gas-tank-like swap and go system…
The possibilities are endless. If I'm a building manager or developer, I'd hold off on catering to the current system of EVs. May end up very short lived and appear ridiculous like the built in phones of a 90s BMW.
This is what I reckon. Lots of people really excited now and willing to make huge compromises ("I'll telecommute while I fuel up"), but realistically there's lots to be done. I'm happy for early investors to pour cash in, but I'm surprised ozbargainers would.
I think, overall, everyone is way too bullish about electric vehicles.
Personally, I think EVs are great. There are substantial benefits even beyond the environmental aspects. However, there are still plenty of caveats before they become commonplace.
Let's just analyse the market. Cars last for over 10 years easily. I can find plenty of reliable cars like Camrys and Corollas that are even 15 years old. The new Camrys and Corollas today are still going to be around in 15 years. On top of that, the major players in the car industry, e.g. Toyota, Mazda, Hyundai…etc. don't even have a production EV. None of this is suggesting a wipeout of petrol cars in 15 years as some seem to think.
It's the same discussion with hybrid cars. I remember back around 15 years ago when hybrid was a big deal and cars like the Toyota Prius were landing, people started discussing the idea that soon every car will be hybrid and that it's the next "new" thing. Sure, hybrid cars are amazing and many of my friends who drive Ubers have saved tremendous amounts on fuel with them, but people still don't buy them.
People are much more conservative and resistant to change than you think. For almost everyone, their next car will be a petrol car because their last car was a petrol car. Unless there are some serious benefits to EVs (which there aren't at the moment), only people who care about the planet or the technology will buy into them. Ultimately, I think there are a few things that need to be achieved before EVs become "standard":
1) Cost. The best selling cars are around $25,000 (e.g. Corolla, Mazda 3, Hyundai i30…etc.) Unless EVs are encroaching on that territory, the majority of people just won't find it very beneficial to go with an EV. Until there are EV options around this price, people will still buy petrol cars. My mum drives for a month on a tank of fuel. She hardly spends anything on fuel that the "fuel saving" argument is irrelevant. Plenty of people in that camp.
2) Reliability. EVs need to be cars, not glorified tech demos. I love cars, but the fact is the majority of people don't. They either just want their car to take them from A to B or they view it as a status symbol. Tesla is not a serious car manufacturer. They are a technology company building a car like a phone. That's not how people buy cars. The big players, Toyota, Mazda…etc. need to join before EVs get serious.
3) Battery technology. Perhaps with the advent of EVs, we'll see some serious innovations in battery technology. But in the mean time, batteries just don't last long enough and with how much they cost, it makes consideration of an EV (or even hybrid) a non-starter for some people.
Sure EVs are cool technology and I wish they'd displace ICEs sooner, but history has shown us that's not the case. Remember when everyone was going to have solar panels on their roofs? Yeah, that didn't happen either.
Just a FYI. There's a precedent.
"In 1884 there were 150,000 horses in NYC and 4000 carriage makers in the Northeast. By 1900 there are a few hundred automobiles, powers by gas or steam or electricity. By 1905 there were 23,000 cars in NYC alone. By 1908 there were 100,000 cars and there were 100,000 horses in NY"
https://www.quora.com/How-long-did-it-take-to-get-horse-draw…
The practical difference between any car and a horse is much greater than the practical difference between a petrol car and an electric car.
I agree completely, the practical difference of such a paradigm shift is far greater than we now face. Yet from a few hundred cars v 150,000 horses in 1900 just 8 years later there were 100,000 cars and they'd replaced horses as the primary means of transport.
@kale chips suck: Replacing horses with automotive made sense. The benefits from increased productivity were to great to not make the change. Changing from ICE to EV doesn't increase productivity while it may increase pollution in the short term.
@whooah1979: That's certainly an interesting point. I'm not sure it had much to do with increasing productivity though - more, I suspect, about getting rid of the noise of 600,000 hooves clanging at all hours on stone roads.
Also, getting rid of the piles of horseshit likely played a role.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter though. Perception of the masses led to a paradigm shift in very few years.
To be clear, I'm a fan of ICE. I have several, both petrol and diesel. I also think EVs are very interesting and I have a Mi 365 scooter that I now use as my local runabout for probably 80% of short trips. My comments here aren't argue, but just to discuss.
It was mentioned earlier that the iPhone was a gamechanger and someone shot down the comparison. I think it's a very fair comparison - we're now looking back from a time when smart phones are ubiquitous and there's apps for everything. When they launched, that wasn't the case. I owned an O2 XDA on the Hel$tra network before they were officially released in Australia and it was a constant frustration having to tell everyone who thought it ridiculous a phone have a touch screen that it wasn't. Browsing on it was pathetic. ICQ worked, sometimes. The touch failed often. Reboots were frequent. It was a crap experience if looked at objectively, and no-one in their right mind would want one. They were thought of as marvelous playthings for those weird computering people. Serious people used Nokia.
Finally, I haven't seen any authoritative lifecycle analysis yet, comparing ICE to EV TCO. It's an interesting question - but I think it's also one that the answer will be changing so quickly for that getting an timely accurate answer isn't doable now. I think that because the battery tech is developing much faster and the pollution issues are directly tied to batteries and battery chemistry. I do remember from studying LCA @ Swinburne that Ford estimated each car they produced used half a billion litres of fresh water to manufacture. Which still has me scratching my head….
All I read were fallacies, sorry.
Just because the Corrola's and Camry's are still about doesn't mean people are going to be driving them. Sure it may take a long time to displace a billion cars but automation is going to change the game.
People are much less resistant to change than You think, remember iPhone. If Tesla can bring a strong enough value proposition then people will buy.
Tesla are also about to roll out a cheaper model. Combine that with more factories and the ability to send your car off to work for the day and you've got some super affordable cars.
Tesla's are super reliable, theres no bloody engine, exaust and the battery lasts for ever. As for Tesla not being a serious car maker well they just outsold BMW in the states.
Just because the Corrola's and Camry's are still about doesn't mean people are going to be driving them.
People may not want nor choose to drive them but the vehicles will trickle down to the poor who will drive whatever they can best afford.
Tesla's are super reliable, theres no bloody engine, exaust and the battery lasts for ever.
According to the 2016 Auto Reliability Survey by UK's Consumer report, Tesla ranked 25th out if 29. Similar reports of declining satisfaction in the US.
There are no engines but 4 motors (2 in some). They are not combustion engines but they are a moving part and subject to failure.
They have no exhaust but the emmisions from manufacturing an EV is more than a combustion car. It is a poorer proposition to replace already manufactured and running cars with an EV. Also, there's emissions associated with production of energy for the EV.
The batteries do no last "forever". There's a finite number of cycles of any battery, and it degrades with age. Tesla's warranty doesn't make any battery degradation warranty promises on the S or X but the model 3 has the best consumer protection with a guarantee of 70% capacity after 200,000km. Rate of degradation is exponential.
They are not combustion engines but they are a moving part and subject to failure.
One moving part (ok 4) as compared to how many in a normal car? Not just the engine, but the transmission, diff and all that.
Electric motors are pretty reliable, even more so if they're brushless (fewer parts yay).
For reliability & longevity I'll take the electric. Yeah the battery will crap out eventually but lead acid ones crap out sooner.
@D C: Those are fair points. I don't disagree that EVs are the way forward but I believe there is a fair way to go before the technology becomes reliable and time tested.
EVs vs ICE is not much different to outdoor power tools. It's moving to battery but petrol is still around. EVs joined the party later so we can sort of model the uptake against it.
I'm all for EVs and I'm holding out on my next car purchase until I see mainstream brands like VW and Merc release their second generation.
EVs vs ICE is not much different to outdoor power tools.
That's a good analogy, I remember when battery-powered tools first came out and the arguments from the dinosaurs were the same.
"Under-powered, too expensive, plastic crap, goes flat too fast, takes too long to recharge, can't repair it blah blah."
At the time the points were mostly fair enough, but when people start preferring battery chainsaws to petrol ones…
@D C: That'll be me. I prefer an electric chainsaw to a petrol one but the petrol one still has its place. Having said that, I wouldn't buy a petrol one today, I'd just rent one for the rare occasion I need that much power.
"According to the 2016 Auto Reliability Survey by UK's Consumer report, Tesla ranked 25th out if 29. Similar reports of declining satisfaction in the US."
Oh really. Not according to consumer reports or pretty much any other credible publication. The only people who aren't satisfied with Teslas are people who don't own them. Customers love them.
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-custom…
"The batteries do no last "forever". There's a finite number of cycles of any battery, and it degrades with age. Tesla's warranty doesn't make any battery degradation warranty promises on the S or X but the model 3 has the best consumer protection with a guarantee of 70% capacity after 200,000km. Rate of degradation is exponential."
Here's the actual degradation of a large number of Teslas. Deg is not a problem.
https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-bat…
and here's some food for thought:
https://insideevs.com/highest-mileage-tesla-now-has-over-420…
There are Tesla fanbois, who will say anything, and there are Tesla haters, who will make up things to disparage the company. There aren't that many people in between.
The facts are that:
Despite earlier financial issues, Tesla is now flourishing financially, and sales and production of the Model 3 are through the roof. It is one of the best selling cars in the United States, (Canada and the US are the only market it is available in), and is by far and away the most profitable car for sale in the US. (The revenue is insane, as all the other cars in the top 10 cost around half of what a Model 3 costs).
Tesla makes fantastic cars. They are all very fast, have great usable range, and the drivers love them.
Tesla had some quality issues (especially with panel gaps) in its early years, but these are largely eradicated now. The quality of a Tesla is generally good, and this is despite the fact that their single factory is now churning out over 7000 cars a week.
The Tesla autopilot hardware and software is unrivalled in the automotive industry. They are the leaders in real world autonomous driving. Waymo have better, less error prone tech, but it's not consumer hardware. The Tesla software is getting to the point where full self driving (albeit monitored by a driver) will start rolling out within the year.
Jaguar have also released a luxury EV. It seems like a good car, but it's a gen 1 car, and like gen 1 Teslas it has problems. The efficiency of the small Jaguar (it's about the size of a Model 3, despite what JLR marketing will have you believe), is worse than a much bigger Tesla Model X. You will get much more freeway range from a Model X, than a Jaguar iPace. The Jag also can't charge as fast as Jaguar claimed (a max of 70kw has been observed on a CCS2 charger). If you compare the Jag to the similarly sized (interior and exterior) Model 3, the Model 3 has almost twice the range, can charge at 110kw (and more importantly adds a lot more km/h), and is 30% cheaper. Oh and autopilot, which the Jag doesn't have.
The Audi e -Tron is probably a more credibly entry, but again it has inferior efficiency and range. Efficiency is the key to EVs, as your charge rate is always less important than how many kms you can add per hour. Again, no autopilot. The Audi is currently the fastest charging EV in terms of charge rate (125kw), but not kmh.
The Porsche Taycan looks like a true innovation, it has an 800V battery system, and performs in a straight line about as fast as an Tesla P3D (but it's much slower than a P100D). It looks to be luxurious, fast and it's beautiful. It can set times around a race track, which the Tesla Model S can't do (but the P3D can with track mode). The Taycan promises fast charging, at up to 350kw. This will be a game changer in terms of long distance travel, but there are serious concerns about long term degradation at such a high C rating. It's not even about cooling, but the internal chemistry of the battery at that point. They are going to experience a lot of internal resistance building up, so owners might have an issue at 100,000km. Maybe that's Porsches game plan, or they feel that most people will slow charge in their garages overnight (which will likely be the case). The Taycan isn't that efficient and has a low range for a 90kw battery, but the fast charging makes up for this. Audi has a concept based on this chassis, and Bentley will too in the near future.
In 2026 VW group will stop ICE engine development entirely. The writing is on the wall, and with all these great cars available (or soon to be), even in limited numbers, there are some great choices. For people with a sub $150k (or $200k in the case of the Porsche) budget, there are some great options becoming available soon too. The Hyundai Kona EV appears to be the king of cheap EVs at the moment. It only has a 60kw battery, but because it's tiny and very efficient, it has a long range (as long as some Teslas) and even though it has a slow charge rate, because it is efficient, you have a good km/h rate. If you're after a very small EV, and don't want to break the bank (probably $70k on the road), this looks like a seriously good option. Even the $50k Ioniq might entice some people.
Oh really. Not according to consumer reports or pretty much any other credible publication. The only people who aren't satisfied with Teslas are people who don't own them. Customers love them.
What you said is obvious. Of course people who bought Teslas love them (otherwise they wouldn't have bought them) and people who didn't buy Teslas don't love them (otherwise they would have bought Teslas). You could say the same thing about iPhones - it seems everyone who owns an iPhone loves it and everyone who doesn't own one hates it. What a surprise.
You need objective ways of measuring the reliability and serviceability of a car. Tesla ranks close to the worst for reliability and repairability. There are basically no parts available for Teslas and it's almost impossible to perform independent repair. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/survey-uk-drivers-say-tes…. Unsurprisingly, the Japanese car makers rank the best.
Despite earlier financial issues, Tesla is now flourishing financially, and sales and production of the Model 3 are through the roof. It is one of the best selling cars in the United States.
That's great, I hope that with the increased production, Tesla is finally able to become a serious car manufacturer that values reliability and quality products apart from producing technologically cool things.
The Hyundai Kona EV appears to be the king of cheap EVs at the moment. It only has a 60kw battery, but because it's tiny and very efficient, it has a long range (as long as some Teslas) and even though it has a slow charge rate, because it is efficient, you have a good km/h rate. If you're after a very small EV, and don't want to break the bank (probably $70k on the road), this looks like a seriously good option.
Nobody is doubting what you are saying. I think that the future is with EVs, but everything you've said so far shows why that won't be the case. If we take your figure of $70k for the Hyundai Kona EV, that's over double the price of the regular Kona. Do you really think the person who doesn't really know or care about cars is going to pay $70k for a Hyundai Kona?
@p1 ama: Consumer reports is objective. If you don’t understand that, you need to do some research. Teslas are reliable, and who better to judge the cars than their owners (or the vast majority of motoring journalists). Better yet, take one on a test drive and make up your own mind.
Tesla is a serious car manufacturer, it has a Market cap bigger than BMW and Mercedes.
I agree that the Kona comparatively is too expensive when compared to the ICE version in isolation, but it’s much more of a car, but as it stands, budget EVs don’t exist. That doesn’t mean an EV can’t be good value. A Tesla Model 3 tracks price parity with the BMW 3 series in the US (and outsells it by a huge margin). At each model price point in the 3 series range there is a Model 3 (but the P3D is slightly cheaper than the M3). The Model S price tracks with the S class Mercedes in the US, but it’s really more of a CLS class competition, so maybe a little overly expensive there. In Australia however, it’s at price parity with the smaller E class, so represents a much better value proposition here.
Tesla is a serious car manufacturer, it has a Market cap bigger than BMW and Mercedes.
Market cap means little if the company doesn't sell enough vehicles or make a profit.
TSLA PER is 43.20 compared to BMW 6.64 and DAI 7.19.
TSLA sold 500,000 units.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/13/business/tesla-volkswagen…
DAI sold 1,356,350 units in seven months.
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Merce…
BMW sold 1,834,810 units in three quarters.
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T028586…
@whooah1979: Tesla is profitable, and making much more profit per unit. Market Cap means a lot, it takes into account future performance. Here's something that needs to be factored into share price: All auto manufacturers are switching over production to EVs, starting this year. The problem with that is, there is a finite production capacity of Lithium batteries, and while deals are made with companies like Samsung and LG Chem, they currently don't have the capacity to supply mass production of auto mobiles. They are ramping, but it will take years to meet demand. Tesla owns the largest battery factory in the world, and they are building another one in China right now. Their vertical integration will keep them ahead of the market for years to come.
Tesla is profitable
TSLA EPS is $1.86. That is crap for a stock that's valued at US $348.
AAPL stocks are valued at US $163. Their FYE EPS is $2.92 (Total year $11.91).
@whooah1979: That's their first quarter of real profitability. They are starting European deliveries next quarter.
Consumer reports is objective. If you don’t understand that, you need to do some research. Teslas are reliable, and who better to judge the cars than their owners (or the vast majority of motoring journalists). Better yet, take one on a test drive and make up your own mind.
Test driving a car is a horrible way to judge the reliability of a car. Either way, there is significant difference between reliability and customer satisfaction. Look at the list you sent earlier - Tesla Model S, Porsche 911, Chevrolet Corvette, Lincoln Continental, Ford F-350 are the top 5. If you buy any of those cars, I would say that you are satisfied by virtue of owning them.
To be fair, one of my mates is extremely happy with his JDM import that's in the garage 80% of the time getting fixed. He loves the car, it doesn't mean the car is reliable. You're talking about a different metric. For people who don't give a rat's ass about cars, they need cars to be reliable, for parts to be available when needed…etc. Tesla does not do well in these areas.
Tesla is a serious car manufacturer, it has a Market cap bigger than BMW and Mercedes.
Great, Tesla is a big company. They also do many more things than produce cars. To be fair, I think Tesla as a company do many great things. Their power wall is a good idea, they are investing in battery technology, which will have a far wider impact than just on cars…etc. None of this changes the fact that their cars do have reliability issues. Use your imagination for a second, would you suggest the average person buying a Hyundai Accent to consider a Tesla?
That doesn’t mean an EV can’t be good value.
As you proceed to compare with Mercedes and BMW. Being better value than Mercedes and BMW isn't exactly the hardest thing in the world to do.
Again, none of this discussion really addresses the point. The main point is that the overwhelming majority of people don't buy expensive cars.
So when do you think car manufacturers will stop making ICE cars? So we can be sure they'll still be around 20 years after that, agreed?
I'd say not much more then ten years of ICE production left? Even conservative brands like Subaru are moving closer to EVs, let alone innovative and emerging brands. Hyundai will have an affordable, stylish, long warranty EV on the market here next year. That's big. Very smart move by them.
And sure, the cars would still work twenty years after that but parts, fuel, mechanics etc will be harder and harder to come by. It could be a sort of reverse snowball effect really. There's not much inventive to drive your ICE car if fuel is rare or expensive.
The other thing to consider is that as EVs become more available (i.e. over the next five years) you will see a LOT of people not buying new ICE cars OR new EVs. They'll be waiting for the right EV to come out, because they know buying a new, expensive ICE car will result in effectively an asset worth close to zero in five or ten years time. Traditional depreciation will go out the window once EVs are close to the norm.
@[Deactivated]: I don't think you're grasping the timeline. Manufacturers won't keep building cars if noone is buying them. No-one will buy a car that they can't get fuel for. So we have 30 years by your own figures for EVs to get a share of the market, get infrastructure developed etc.
So the only question is whether driverless cars will be here within that time. I reckon so. I reckon driverless car technology is closer than EVs for all but commute scenarios, which is the obvious first market for driverless cars.
Thus I expect limited range EVs will have a limited market outside of car hire companies.
@[Deactivated]: Lol.
ICE is going to continue as a propulsive option virtually forever. Remember that ICE can be renewable. They will run off palm oil, hydrogen or any liquid that burns. They are very reliable, reasonably light for their power output and scale both down and up in size quite well. Biggest challenges are the emissions and poor overall efficiency. However with the march of technology who knows what the future will hold?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/08/19/reports…
@tanksinatra: I think that's very short sighted. Passenger ICE vehicles will be a niche within 15 years. I'd hazard a guess that the majority of passenger car production will have shifted to EV within 10 years.
People are much less resistant to change than You think, remember iPhone. If Tesla can bring a strong enough value proposition then people will buy.
Comparing an iPhone to a brick phone is a false analogy. With the iPhone, people could do things like browse the web, check email, watch YouTube…etc. The fundamentals of an iPhone and brick phone are very different. On the other hand, an EV and petrol car still do the same thing (get me from A to B).
I agree with the second part of your statement. At the moment, EVs are not a strong enough value proposition. You have to do more than attract people who are environmentally conscious and tech heads to become mainstream.
Tesla's are super reliable, theres no bloody engine, exaust and the battery lasts for ever. As for Tesla not being a serious car maker well they just outsold BMW in the states.
They're legitimately rated as one of the worst manufacturers for support and reliability…
EV and petrol car still do the same thing (get me from A to B).
Your going to be able to sleep while your car drives you to work. You could argue that the iPhone just opened up new ways to communicate, that's exactly what EV's are going to do for transport. I don't think most people understand how disruptive autonomous vehicles are going to be. When Tesla is valued at a trillion dollars your going to wish that you thought it all through.
Your going to be able to sleep while your car drives you to work.
This is fantasy. The reason why people don't drive to work is not because they can't be bothered driving, or because they don't have a car. It's largely because heavy traffic means it actually takes longer for many people to get to work by car vs. catching a train. The vision where you're going to have an army of autonomous vehicles streaming down the freeway dropping people off to work is just not feasible.
People are much more conservative and resistant to change than you think. For almost everyone, their next car will be a petrol car because their last car was a petrol car.
True. Conservative people rely on opinions/advice/example of people around them. Right now I personally don't know anyone who owns an electric car and I think that's true of most people. A lot of people will only consider buying an electric car once their family members, colleagues, friends and neighbors own electric cars and they start to perceive them as "normal". (that's in addition to all the other issues you mention).
Remember when everyone was going to have solar panels on their roofs? Yeah, that didn't happen either.
It's happening bit by bit. 2 million homes now have solar panels. That's approximately 20% of all homes in Australia.
The ROI isn't there yet for solar panels on investment properties - tenants would need to be willing to pay higher rent.
We don't have a good legal framework to encourage investment in solar panels on strata title dwellings. The 20% of homes that have solar power probably equates to 40-50% of all privately owned stand alone dwellings.
Everything you say about solar panels is true. I also think the same of EVs. Sure, the proportion of EVs will go up over time, but I also think it will be slowly. I also think the ROI for EVs are not quite there yet (perhaps only for people who drive a lot).
ignore all my posts. This is what I meant to say.
Weird that we think we need to invent a new solution here for this, when other countries have already implemented various solutions.
For example, Beijing has plenty of parking lots with a charge point in every slot.
When you need a charge, you just park at one of them while you go to work, or do your shopping or whatever.
There is no reason parking lots here won’t offer the same, if they can get an extra couple of dollars for doing so.
Since I dislike paying for parking, this might make me feel better as I can rationalise the fee as being a fill up too.
I might go to Stockland instead of Westfield if it has charge points, for example.
no need to reinvent the wheel. we already have the solution. you can see it in action at every fun park and circus.
just like the dodgem cars EVs should be able to raise a hook and cable up in the air above them and charge off the tram line power cables as we drive along.
edit: just realised this is a very melbourne-centric solution that might not work for the rest of you all. another reason we are the best city in the world 12 years running.
Councils will convert each parking meter to meter+charge point. User-pay system between motorists and rate payers.
Fair? Since when has that stopped them?
Residential is harder. Can't take your battery up to your little apartment to charge.
Car manufacturers should be more innovative, but they keep fobbing off such concerns with car-sharing concepts where nobody really owns the car. You just summon a charged one when you need it, supposedly.
Yeah good luck with that.
"most don't have a garage to charge in" I'm assuming by that you are suggesting everyone lives in the CBD of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane?
I've got a 5 car garage and room for another 2 cars down the side (all connected to driveway). Looking down the street, everyone has at least a 2 car garage and room up the side (typically with a caravan). Literally every roof has a solar panel installation.
Mate… the CBD of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth are the most densely populated places in the country. I think it's fair to say that a significant amount of people who live there are in apartments.
Also, so many people rent and don't have a garage. I have rented in three different houses (not counting apartments or townhouses), each with no garage. How am I charging a Tesla on the street across the road from my house? None of those were in a capital city fyi.
Nail on the head here is "Most densely populated places". Why do you even need a car? I travel to Sydney and Melbourne frequently for work and never need a car.
I would argue if you are renting, you probably shouldn't be buying a Tesla.
But I can see the addition of Solar/Battery and EV charging, as draw card for certain rentalers. Those who choose to rent and have an EV, will likely pay more for a property with an outlet, while those who are forced to rent, probably won't own a EV.
Because in this massive country the car is a symbol of freedom for a lot of people. I will always own a car. I have lived in CBDs too! Wanted my car there as well.
Why shouldn't you be buying an EV if renting?
@[Deactivated]: I never said that you shouldn't be buying an EV if renting.
I said if you are forced to rent, then you shouldn't. you should focused on stable housing.
If you are choosing to rent, then have at it.
If you see a car as a status symbol, you have massive identity issues.
I'm not sure how "forced to rent" is not stable housing? I don't think anyone is "forced to rent" aside from the poorest of the poor. I could go buy a house in woop woop tomorrow and no longer have to rent.
I said a symbol of freedom, not a status symbol. This country is huge. If you have a car, you have the ability to go explore all of it without relying on the pathetic public transport that exists outside the capital cities.
A lot of city Councils are encouraging charging stations with some contemplating on-street charging pods (Paris has implemented some). Shopping centres will likely get on board too.
These will obviously come at a cost to the consumer.
Chadstone have them, I think Doncaster and Geelong Westfield have them?
The issue with the chargers installed by most places like councils, shopping centres etc is that they install type 1/2 chargers that have speeds that are like charging at home. Monash and Swinburne universities have 50kw Chademo chargers (241km/hr), you could charge a 24kw Nissan leaf in about 30 mins unlike the 7-8 hours with a J1772.
Have never seen one in use though, ever.
I was walking around Oslo last year. From memory they have the highest uptake of plug in vehicles in the world because of various tax regimes etc. The authority (local council/ government?) has installed charging poles on street side parking (they look like fancy parking meters)… people simply plug their cars into these. They're pretty abundant.
Yes, I saw this too.
Over 50% of all new car sales in Norway are electric or hybrid.
It seemed to me that nearly every major car manufacturer had electric cars: BMW, Renault, Mitsubishi, Volvo, Toyota, Hyundai, etc. Just because we don't get them in Australia doesn't mean they don't exist. I even saw a Tesla taxi… LOL.
Norway has incentive schemes which include: government subsidy on purchase of vehicles, free parking for EVs in some areas, reduced tolls, exemption from congestion fees, etc.
Of course, Norway is an evil, mind-controlling, socialist dystopia; the Scandinavian sheeple methods would never work here on decent free enterprise-loving dinky-di Aussies.
Australia and public facilities doesn't work
Why do you need a garage for charging?
Anyway, Australia will be behind most of the world with EVs, so don't need to worry about it for another 50 years or so
Early adopters (i.e. current owners) of EVs mostly rely on home charging. These people mostly need a garage or carport to give convenient access to a power socket or dedicated charging station.
However, there will be better infrastructure available in inner cities before too long. A good example can be seen in the UK where a company designed charging stations that can be retrofitted inside existing street light poles:
https://electrek.co/2017/11/14/london-electric-car-charging-…
If every street light can have a charging point added, that could be rolled out very easily by many inner city councils.
This kind of infrastructure is starting to be installed in countries where there is demand for it - mainly in Europe. As EVs become more common in Australia we will no doubt see this kind of infrastructure being installed.
https://electrek.co/2017/11/14/london-electric-car-charging-…
How is that going to work when this guy keeps hanging around?
https://cdnph.upi.com/ph/st/th/9451521656034/2018/i/15216563…
The infrastructure needs to change with the technology.
It's like horse owners complaining that cars need petrol and it was hard to find at the time.
Early adopters will put up with the inconvenience until the surroundings catch up enough for everyone to be able to transition.
Car ownership may not be relevant, people just might use a subscription service and request a car when they need one
We shall never own property again if our corporate overlords have their wish.
On the premise that it'll still be decades for the large scale transition to EVs, there's plenty of time to introduce some kind of technology or building standard for charging convenience. The barrier will be crime/vandalism imo. Private garages, and private apartment car parks might be no problem. But on the street, or some apartment blocks you're no doubt gonna get vandalism or just "electricity moochers" (ultimately damaging the infrastructure too)
Charge at work, or the local shops while at work.
Else you just keep driving an ICE vihecles till the infrastructure catches up.
"Unless you live in….. (most situations)…. then most don't have a garage to charge in"
Fixed title for you
If you can't afford a house with a garage you probably can't afford a $100k electric car.
I can afford all sorts of houses with garages, I just don't want one.
That’s fair enoug, but the sacrifice you make not wanting a garage will mean arranging other charging options if you still want to own an electric car.
To me if you currently (pun intended) want an electric car you would need to have a charging station at home because the infrastructure is not there yet. Just like you don’t get to complain if you own a car now and you have trouble finding parking on the street at home while you go to work on foot or by public transport. It’s all Choices.
It's choice now, but the question was geared toward when it's not a choice. When EVs reach 100% saturation, how are we going to answer these questions?
@[Deactivated]: If the majority in an apartment building want to install chargers in the car spaces ("100% saturation") then they can do it through strata, it'll just come down to a vote and some extra money. If enough people are installing them then the cost wont be too high.
@[Deactivated]: When it gets to that saturation point apartment complexes will be installing chargers or they will not get as much in rent. Supply and demand, simple economics. If you have the choice of two apartments and one can’t charge your car which will you choose.
Also by the one we have saturation if electric vehicles shopping centres and workplaces will be installing chargers for similar reasons - to be better than ten competition. As I’ve said elsewhere there are also advantages in having cars plugged in most of the time when they aren’t being driven to supplement grid power. Using vehicle batteries as storage banks for electricity while not being driven will become a thing we do to manage the grid.
@Gallifr3y
Renault Zoe under 50K,
BMW i3 ~69K,
New Leaf should fall somewhere between them in price.
Tesla's aren't for everyone.
According to this: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/…
4:5 people live in a house, so this post relates to the 1:5 Australians who:
Don't live in a house
Want an electric car
Want to charge it in a garage that doesn't currently support or will ever support EV charging
I think we're debating the woes of the 1:1000 here
How many of those:
A) have garages or the capacity to build one?
B) can only use street parking?
C) have a garage but no way to power it?
Keeping in mind many of these people will be renting too so unable to make modifications.
You sound really worried about a small group of people. Supply and demand will provide a solution. If the majority of that group of people want chargers, someone will work out a way to supply them. It might be council providing in street chargers and receiving an income from it. It might be apartment owners installing chargers, it might be the parking lot at the end of the street that used to be a petrol station.
same with transition into anything in the past
Ideally in the future, streets have power lines below them for wireless charging working a bit like induction cookers. As you drive you charge the vehicle :)
For now - the urban apartment/terrace home with street parking is not the target demographic.
Power lines already in place in Melbourne above the road for electric vehicles.
I guess the question will be, when will EV be a viable purchase?
Once EV's start to gain market share, then there will be a fight for companies to distribute and enhance technologies.
Companies won't be spending significant money on R&D and implementation/distribution until there's a 'guaranteed' return of investment. Adopting early will cost too much.
We can always think of the future / what if's, but until there's a market for it and profit to be made, very little will happen. You need to be a billionaire that's happy to lose significant money creating technology/infrastructure (Perhaps an Australian version of Sir Richard Branson or Elon Musk?) for it to work, wait until EV has a greater market share, have government spending (won't unless it's a political advantage) or buy overseas technologies.
Also, look at our current infrastructure (roads, NBN, etc), costs of implementation for 'future proofing' generally don't look further than a decade (IMO).
We are generally reactive rather than proactive..
The roads will become huge wireless charging pads.
Do you fill up your ICE Car overnight in your garage? nope.
How long does it take to get a tank of petrol? 5min-10mins if you got a bigger tank?
So for an extra half an hour you can get the same net result, so instead of standing there pumping, you just plug it in when you park somewhere that supports it, more workplaces, car parks and retail outlets etc will have as they increase adoption but it's not hard now going to most metro westfields offer it. So i'll go have a nice sit down coffee or whatever and by time i've done that i've got another 400+Km's to go.
Essentially at home i'll just it up once every 2-3 weeks.
check out the yellow vest movement that might hamper EV adoption in reality…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/world/europe/france-fuel-…
Doesn't have to be a garage.
You can also charge outside like at a shopping center or dedicated chargers, though it will take a while if you have to wait.
We should power cars the flintstone way. I would hate to be a truck driver though
Well if the tech can charge your phone wireless it wont take that long to charge your car wireless…..or like a spare eneloop, except its a XXX replaceable battery.
Love the Giant robo Shizuma Drive battery. Now that is mad science.
I will call the invention the XxxFi wireless car charger
In my opinion, the statement
I reckon that's a significant fraction of Australian car users gone in those categories
Is not quite accurate in reference to the question. This site http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/…
Shows that more than 70% of Australians live in separate houses (I'd assume most have some form of driveway parking).
I'd also guess that these Australians do a significantly more Km in their cars compared to their apartment dwelling friends.
Apartment dwelling population accounts for < 14% - not significant enough to halt the adoption of electric cars; and
that most don't have a garage to charge in
Appears to be totally false.
And for the 14% of apartment dwellers a significant portion are going to have parking available at their apartment plus a portion of those that don’t have parking have made hebdecision not to have a car. Now we are getting to small numbers.
Like any transition, will take time and further refinement in technology and thinking from the consumer.
Tesla superchargers will charge in 20 min today, 500 km range. I can see shopping centers providing EV charging and making money off it. In China they have Truck with batteries that will come to you to charge your car, today. I can see car charging drive in restaurants /cafes like old school ones replacing Petrol stations. There is money to made in this issue. Along with full self driving, send your car to charge and park while at work or home. Along with car sharing.
People want EV, myself included. But I will wait a decade until the tech is further refined and price drops further.
As electric cars become more popular & cheaper, I wonder if oil companies will drop the price of fuel (to make you keep your old car) or increase the price (to maintain profit on lower sales)?
at least 20 years to get about 50% off the road. do you really think the greedy oil companies and affiliates are just going to throw in the towel without a fight? what about enthusiasts? what about the poor? What about the people who buy petrol cars in the next 10 years? This is not a case of new mass adoption like computers and smartphones in the last two/three decades, its changing/replacing an existing infrastructure. it's going to take a lot longer.