How Realistic Will It Be to Expect EV's to Conquer ICE Cars Soon

RockyRaccoon on 07/02/2023 - 20:20
Last edited 07/02/2023 - 20:21

Friends keep telling me that EV's will take over in the next few years. The issue is how long is a few.

I got to thinking and checked on some data. Yep you know from Google, which we all know is 100% accurate. 🤣

That said there is some interesting figures out there. And I roughly rounded the numbers to keep it simple.

Last year world wide around 80 Million cars produced (down on years before). Estimated BEV's produced in 2022 10 Million (Hybrids not in these figures)

Sales of EV's have at least doubled in past year up and doubled the year before that.

Estimated, there are world wide, 1.4 Billion Cars on the road

In Australia the average age of the national car fleet is 10.1 years

Aust June 21 20 Million cars registered 23000 were EV’s

Ignoring general logistics of this occuring, if we say Australia can take even 10% of worlds current production thats 20 years to change over without ever replacing an older EV

Let alone all the other places with populations far greater than ours like our near neighbours, which have a much greater fleet lifespan average.

Is "soon" realistic or are we just dreaming.

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

      • joelmuzz on 09/02/2023 - 18:59

        Governments aren't going to back combustion fuels, they still create toxic and greenhouse depleting gas with their air and nitrogen reaction.
        Noise and stink won't be welcome in urban areas in another decade.

        It's going to have to be battery, redox liquid or fuel cells.

        • Brick Tamland on 09/02/2023 - 19:22
          +1

          Noise and stink won't be welcome in urban areas in another decade

          The vast majority of cars on the road will still be petrol in a decade. We will probably even see an increase in diesel fuels. We aren't getting greener, we are running increasingly dirty cars.

          • nephilim on 09/02/2023 - 23:33
            +1

            @Brick Tamland: Its impossible for Australia to stay stubborn for tradies and wealthy people with 10lt/100km cars, we are going to need EU style rules in the end.
            Fact its taken until mid 2023 for Suzuki to release a hybrid in Australia, shows how serious company companies are when there are no rules. Mazda skipped a whole hybrid gen for aus (the older 3).

  • Brick Tamland on 08/02/2023 - 21:38

    I think its so unrealistic that its not even a topic of discussion yet.

    EV's in Australia are for the early adopters/ guinea pigs. Virtually all EV's except the Leaf are still first gen cars. Realistically, we are still going to see brand new ICE sold until at least 2030 and those new ICE cars will still have a shelf life of 10-20 years.

    I reckon we will see synthetic fuels or other fuels make EV's obsolete before they make any significant inroads. Look at Toyota still investing heavily in Hydrogen and Suzuki &Porsche investing in synthetic fuel.

    • RockyRaccoon on 08/02/2023 - 21:56

      Not sure on the synthetic fuel, maybe some links to that.

      On the point that even if mandated not to be sold its going to be at least 10 years after that before ice cars are gone.

      Problem is that many like our motoring writers get excited about the technology of EV's where their enthusiasm doesnt match realities. EV cars cant just be made overnight. Hell we even have a worldwide shortage of computer chips. Why because it takes more fabrication plants to be built just for the chips to manage the EV car.

      • Brick Tamland on 08/02/2023 - 22:16

        Hell we even have a worldwide shortage of computer chips. Why because it takes more fabrication plants to be built just for the chips to manage the EV car.

        I imagine it will be batteries that will limit the supply of EV's. I dont think it would be surprising that EV's would utilise less chips than ICE cars. ICE cars run a multitude of chips/ modules to control a relatively complex engine (compared to an electric motor) and a gearbox that the EV wont have. Cars like the Tesla run a central CPU as opposed to other traditional manufactures that have several CPU modules.

    • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 06:20

      Hydrogen is a solution, but it’s also very energy intensive. It’ll be good for storing excess renewable energy, but won’t be mainstream in passenger vehicles. Maybe for long distance trucking or long distance vehicles. Anywhere where there is charging infrastructure will use batteries, or possibly super capacitors or similar because they are so much more energy efficient. From generation for motion in the vehicle can be as much as 80% energy efficient. Creating hydrogen uses bulk amounts of energy, so the efficiency is well below BEV.

      Synthetic fuels are similarly inefficient use of energy. https://youtu.be/0d0MPg7DxbY

      • Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 19:04

        @Euphemistic,Toyota are actually talking of Hydrogen, which I think is a real alternative.

        • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 20:05

          I don’t know why Toyota are so late to BEV. BEV is the most energy efficient solution, it has its limitations. Toyota, with their long history of hybrids have missed their lead.

          If hydrogen was really going to work I think there would be a lot more of them around already, but I guess hydrogen fuelling is even more problematic than EV charging because it needs much more infrastructure installed. Electricity is available everywhere and whacking a different plug and a big cable on the end of the line is easy compared to shipping a highly volatile gas around everywhere.

          • RockyRaccoon on 10/02/2023 - 10:32

            @Euphemistic: Toyota can't even supply enough Hybrids. Nearly every Hybrid model they sell is capacity constrained. Orders are taking 12 months to supply.

            So diverting their already limited supply of batteries - those little cells that are combined to built a big car battery would probably limit supply even more.

            A Telsa model s EV uses 7104 LiON cells where as a Prius with LiON uses 58 cells

            Now Toyota still has models in some counties that still use Nickel battery packs, as these stand up better to extreme weather conditions especially cold climates that reduce power capacity significantly

            This might help to explain Toyota's positioning.

  • gamtactic on 08/02/2023 - 22:52

    Does anyone have any insights on how electric cars are maintained? Surely there's some type of maintenance that needs to be done but happy to learn if that's not the case

    • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 06:00
      +1

      There is very little maintenance on the drivetrain. Electric motors and batteries are virtually maintenance free - aside from the charge process that balances the battery cell voltages.

      The rest of the vehicle will be exactly the same maintenance requirement as ICE vehicles. Tyres wear out, suspension bushes fail, window motors pack it in, news to tip up the windscreen washer and hangs the cabin filter.

      • Brick Tamland on 09/02/2023 - 07:49
        +1

        There is very little maintenance on the drivetrain. Electric motors and batteries are virtually maintenance free.

        Yep, I 'd imagine they would require more of a safety check than maintenance. IE, making sure nothing is loose, checking brakes and tyres.

      • gamtactic on 09/02/2023 - 21:20

        Thanks - great context! Makes sense that things like tyres still have the regular wear. Also found this on the Tesla website which sounds reasonable: https://www.tesla.com/en_au/support/vehicle-maintenance

        Any idea how much servicing an EV would be? Has anyone taken theirs in yet and seen a bill? I'm confident it'll on par or cheaper than ICE, but would be great if anyone can confirm with their experience

  • trapper on 09/02/2023 - 14:31

    It will be a decade or two, but that will be here a lot sooner than you think. Time flies.

    • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:33

      Yes once the roadblocks are cleared away; oil companies, narrow-minded people averse to changer and so on.

      • trapper on 09/02/2023 - 15:33

        The immediate road block is the price of EV's.

        The secondary one will be meeting the greatly increased power demand.

  • [Deactivated] on 09/02/2023 - 15:01
    +1

    Imagine this:

    It’s 11pm and the outer suburbs are asleep.
    Mummy and Daddy are charging their EV’s so are their stay at home children. Also, Every other man and his dog down the street are charging their EV’s.

    Where is the power going to come from if we are 100% renewable? Are we going to build giant batteries on every corner? Hate to see one of these go boom. Will we need homes equipped with batteries? Will this increase demand on lithium etc.. what are the environmental impacts? The geopolitical implications?

    I don’t have statistics but I wouldnt be surprised if the nightly electricity usage of a standard household would be up to 100x higher than now. It’s a huge amount of power to charge a vehicle.

    How will mummy and daddy get to work if the car doesn’t charge? How will the cities get the lower demographic workers if they can’t commute?

    What happens if the petrol alternative price goes up because there’s less production and investment? There’s no alternative, costs of productivity go up. It’s all connected. Energy is the fuel that drives the economy so it needs to be reliable.

    I understand this in a small country but Australia is a big harsh place. Historically, reality shows pretty quickly.

    I just look at the NBN rollout to see how this will go.

    One thing I’d like to see are electrified rails on major roads (Hume). Can also use regenerative braking and perhaps some form of power sharing along a stretch of road. It’ll be a long process. Unfortunately, ordinary Australians will probably have to pay for reactionary policy and poor planning.

    • trapper on 09/02/2023 - 15:30

      We will either have to build a lot more power generation, or EV charging will end up being restricted at night.

      It's not unrealistic for a lot of car parks to be electrified over the next decade though, could just charge up at work or the supermarket etc.

    • randysal on 09/02/2023 - 16:38
      +2

      We charge either of our cars once a week only, generally on a weekend during a sunny day. Everyone is different and that won't work for everyone, but the cars don't need that much charging in general.

      How about odd street numbers charge on odd days? It doesn't need to be enforced, but if it is an unspoken rule, most will follow.

      As the uptake of the electric cars comes the infrastructure will be improved.

    • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 19:51

      Yes, meanwhile, the continued affects of ICE aren't a cause for concern because they don't have an immediate and noticeable disadvantage, yet people with lead-addled brains continue to run the show.

      • [Deactivated] on 10/02/2023 - 11:00
        -1

        You don’t seem to understand the magnitude of change and the impact it will have.

        The changes need to take place in the 3rd world to have any real impact to any climate “crisis” theory and that just isn’t viable in any foreseeable timeframe.

        Best you buy a respirator and keep the doors locked and sealed just in case

        • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 11:05

          You don’t seem to understand the change is going to take time.

          Very few cars will need a full charge every night. Most people can actually plan to stop and get fuel, so they’ll be able to plan to charge their vehicle.

          Yes, third world countries are going to drag the chain a bit, it why shouldn’t wealthy countries adopt best practice first and then help others move forward.

    • TEER3X on 09/02/2023 - 20:44
      -1

      make electricity at night more expensive, same solution to traffic on roads: tolls.

      we're approaching too much solar generation as it is. could easily have enough capacity to charge during the day.

      batteries will get better. solar panels will get better.

      • [Deactivated] on 10/02/2023 - 11:04

        Your solution involves taxing the most productive people in society. It would inevitably be inadvertently discriminatory. Like all these initiatives, it will have unintended consequences.

    • greatlamp on 10/02/2023 - 08:14

      Home batteries and solar panels. Any home that can afford an EV can afford a full solar setup - it pays for itself

      • [Deactivated] on 10/02/2023 - 10:56

        I know someone with 6500w of peak solar production. This person drives 160km per day and is away from 5am to 5pm 6 days per week. Incredibly productive blue collar person but would not be able to charge an EV.

        This person also lives on a semi rural property so infrastructure is not easily upgraded.

        Best thing this person could do is perhaps have battery storage at home but that costs money so petrol is far more viable it seems.

        It’s becoming a poor tax

        • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 11:07

          That’s one fairly extreme example that is not in the majority. The majority of cars travel less than 50km daily and are parked up for long periods of time during the day, and at night.

          Thousands of people use EVs today and manage fine. There will always be outliers that don’t fit the mould. Those people will adapt somehow.

      • 91rs on 10/02/2023 - 12:19

        Ideally you'd need to store that power so it can be used at night.
        A fair majority of people I know are returned to an office or workplace that requires them to attend in person, leaving it at home all day to charge isn't an option.
        Their employers do not provide parking, so they won't be able to charge there. It's even less likely they can just drag a extension cord out to the street blocks away when they do find street parking.
        The disconnect is that people are assuming people stay at home a lot, WFH or have parking at work that would provide EV charging.
        This is not inline with reality.

        Battery costs still don't have the ROI in current tech for most people to bother, but if you're buying EV's then that might be less of an issue.
        How many EVs can it support? look at the amount of 2-3 car families, husband, wife, child still living at home?

    • us3rnam3tak3n on 10/02/2023 - 08:56

      More storage will be necessary. Lithium batteries are suited to EVs because of their energy density but wasted on grid storage. Here's one alternative:

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-02-02/vanadium-redo…

  • kaleidoscope on 09/02/2023 - 15:25

    I’m simple. Which ever that fits my lifestyle and lesser overall cost of ownership for 5-6 years. As of right now ice vehicles are still cheaper than paying a really high cost for evs in australian market

  • Drakesy on 09/02/2023 - 15:56

    It took around 10 years to transition from horses to evs
    Id imagine it would be similar now, although i feel had it not been for tesla the gm and ice lobbyists wouldve forced us to keep using ice vehicles for much longer

    • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 16:36

      Whats horses got to do with EV transitions? (I guess it was one of the freudian typo's 😀)

      Also the phase out of horses (From ICE) took much longer. Eg Germany relied greatly on horses in WW2, my uncle used to brag about getting bread delivered by Horse and cart in the mid 1950's - which by the way followed the delivery guy down the street with a whistle by the delivery guy. He would brag how this was better than any self driving EV 😀

      Well intentioned the EV evagelists tend to ignore the time the transition will take. And unfortunately their desire to clean up the environment tends to mean they see anyone saying it may be longer than hoped for, is being anti EV which in most cases isnt true.

      Ignored also is the Hybrid or Plug in Hybrid which reduces Petro-use quite significantly in the 50% range. This also helps the environment and enables the limited battery availablity to be of greater benefit.

      • Drakesy on 09/02/2023 - 17:03
        +1

        Sorry horses to ice
        But it stands, thats hoe long it takes for a full transition

        • mrvaluepack on 09/02/2023 - 18:45

          The range benefit from horse to ice was tremendous. Not so with ice to ev.

  • Vancomycin 1000mg on 09/02/2023 - 16:09

    I'm not sure when but there are 7 new petrol stations built within 10 min from my house.

    • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 19:52

      Shame that doesn't actually introduce any sort of competition into the industry.

      • Vancomycin 1000mg on 10/02/2023 - 00:50

        Nope, Tuesday is the cheapest day and they are all the same price. The cheapest one is Coles express on my way to work but only 4 cents.

  • tessel on 09/02/2023 - 16:19
    +1

    Not any time soon. Cost, limited range, battery tech has reached a limit, cost to install recharger infrastructure especially in places like Australia. Don't hold your breathe. WW3 will happen first before ICE vehicles replaced en masse.

    • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 18:16

      Range isn’t really limited for the vast majority of driving. It’s just an anti EV talking point. If the range is too short for YOU don’t buy one. I’d be happy with less range than is standard. I rarely travel over 200km in a week, let alone a day in my commuter car. For holidays it won’t work, but there’s a second car for that - for now.

      • tessel on 09/02/2023 - 18:46
        +1

        The question was when they take over over. Range is an issue. An electric car would not get me to where I want to go without having to recharge and the delay that takes compared to an ice car. An electric car may get people around town, I agree, but range anxiety is real. Doesn't matter if it's not relevant people still think about it. And whys that? Because they think the weekend I'll drive to some location oh hang on the Ev won't be able to do that as easily as an ice car. Or oh there's no charging infrastructure there. People can't just go for a weekend drive exploring in an Ev when you've got limited range and limited charging infrastructure. And see you have two cars to get around this problem. We will see WW3 before EVs overtake ice cars.

        • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 19:53

          We will see WW3 before EVs overtake ice cars.

          Cool, conservatives almost had us believe that was around the corner.

          • tessel on 10/02/2023 - 06:45
            +1

            @smartazz104: Pffft they are fake conservatives then. Real conservatives like myself know it's at least 15 years away. Plenty of time to score some hot bargains.

      • Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 20:08
        +3

        If you only drive 200km per week, about the same as me, your carbon footprint and cost for petrol would be small.

        Why bother changing?

        Other than for virtue signaling.

  • Bonsaichop on 09/02/2023 - 16:27
    +7

    As someone who works with rechargeable technologies thinking that rapid/fast charging is the solution you're going to be in for a surprise when your battery wears out faster than you may think. The faster you charge batteries the quicker their full charge capacity runs down as the chemicals inside the battery break down. Sometimes in smaller devices you'll see this as battery packs swelling up. Most correct charging methods require a slower charge over time to reduce wear to individual cells and allow for the BMS (battery management system) to compensate for the inbalance of cells which can't be balanced with a high current charge.

    If this does not appear to be an issue, remember it only takes a few cells going bad (in battery packs packs that contain hundreds of cells) for the onboard management system to declare the whole battery pack as degraded either reducing range or completely locking out the battery for safety.

    Assuming that manufacturer's are going to honour your battery warranty should be taken with caution. Think back to trying to get a replacement battery for your phone. Companies like Apple will only replace the phone if it has degraded over 20% from full charge capacity over the warranty period. Once the warranty claims start piling in the language and definition of what is determined as a faulty battery will be changed dramatically. Batteries are after all considered a consumable product and they will do anything to get out of replacing it unless it is flat out faulty.

    We're now starting to experience the first generation of Tesla cars coming out of battery warranty and the value of vehicles with a bad battery is severely diminished. In a decade or two the great crisis will be lithium battery waste and EV cars with bad batteries.

    If you're thinking there will be a magical 'new technology battery' that will save the day, remember lithium batteries were first made viable in 1976, became fairly common in the early 2000s and are only now 40+ years later being used for things like EV vehicles where high power density is a cost effective option.

    • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 16:42
      +1

      Will be interested in seeing what responses this will elicit here. Antidotal experiences dont always match overall real world realities

      • Bonsaichop on 09/02/2023 - 17:15
        +3

        Indeed as am I.

        Just to be clear though, i'm not against EV technologies, I just feel that people have a very skewed idea of how the technology actually works. It's not entirely their fault, governments, EV companies and the media like to push a certain agenda so the story is guided in that direction but more people need to ask questions around how it works and the sustainability of such technologies. If you don't understand how it works you'll be out of control when it doesn't work.

        That and especially in this country I feel that EV dependancy is 'kicking the problem down the road'. After all, where does most of the power come from? Solar and wind solutions have high environmental impact both at their creation and especially at their end of life and most don't last their designed lifespan of 20+ years.

        For example; In the USA there's been for some time the problem of recycling retired wind turbines as they are made of composite materials layered with balsa wood and fibreglass. It can't be separated and the best solutions right now is to pulp it down and mix it with road base. But there are yards full of retired/failed turbines and no real solution how to deal with them.

        • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 17:22
          +1

          i'm not against EV technologies,

          I dont think many would be, its just that probably life/work experiences tell us that while Steve Jobs/Elon Musk like promoters might encourage faster take up, that they cant do things at the speed most would like. Then there's government based programs like New Trains promised 3 years out that take 10 years. Look at the fast train history on the east Coast

          Thanks for the insights.

        • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 18:39
          +1

          I just feel that people have a very skewed idea of how the technology actually works.

          Totally this. The ICE/fossil fuel makers have been dissing BEV for decades and really ramped it up in the last few years. You only have to read some of the comments in threads like this to see how misinformed many people are.

          EVs are great for city commuting and where you have the ability to slow charge when you are at home all night or at work for 8hrs a day.

          • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 19:20
            +1

            @Euphemistic: I guess its all what your life circumstances are. My biggest gripe is others dont realise that what suits them doesnt suit everyone, and just because someone raises a different viewpoint it doesnt mean its not valid under their circumstances..

            City being City House Urban probably makes more sense. City High rise maybe different. Not much Solar for high rise, or inner city town/terrace houses without garages or shaded roofs (From high rises nearby).

            Travelling 50-100km a day makes a lot more sense.

            If you only do very small commutes why even bother with a car EV or not. And really ICE consumption of petrol etc would be very low anyway.

            Its the mid distance urban house dweller who probably would at this time get the best benefit from EV, solar and enough distance travelled daily to reap the investment benefits.

          • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 01:00
            +1

            @Euphemistic: Neither of those two situations you mention are at the Woolies car park.

            You were championing that elsewhere in this thread.

    • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 18:38
      +2

      Exactly, MILLIONS upon MILLIOns of batteries which are made of toxic metals will make OIL and carbon look like dropping a banana peel

      • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 18:40

        Yeah… nah.

        Probably both equally bad to make, but one you can use thousands of times and then recycle it. The other turns into heat and pollutants instantly.

        • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 20:57
          +3

          EV batteries are recycled ?

          Show me a single link on tesla's website that points you to any recycling program in any country.

          Show me a single government website from any country that points citizens to EV car recycling programs in their country.

          All batteries are BAD, a single battery is a forever chemical. It poisons the ground forever…

          You have no concept of how mad the heavy metals in batteries are.

          • joelmuzz on 10/02/2023 - 23:07

            @CowFrogHorse: There are currently so few reaching the recycle stage that there is no need for a recycling plant.
            They currently sell at a good price into the resuse life phase. DIY solar storage market loves them. A battery can stay in home storage use until it completely fails and it's taking up space in the back of the yard.

        • Bonsaichop on 09/02/2023 - 21:45

          Currently there's no practical/effective way to recycle lithium batteries. There are some companies working on recycling methods (which are promising to invest in if you're a share trader) but most of them are focusing on extracting the graphene not much else.

          A lithium battery is a tightly wrapped chemical cocktail between two metal plates that look like foil. The problem with recycling is that these batteries can't be shredded like traditional recycling methods like plastic or metal. If you try to shred a lithium battery it has a thermal 'runaway' event basically overheating and catching on fire. So methods to dismantle and recycle lithium batteries becomes a very laborious exercise literally unwrapping the cell.

          Though it sounds simple enough, a Telsa model 3 has just over 7000 individual cells. That's a huge manual labor task that has the risk of catching on fire or exploding and when it comes to lithium batteries this is a serious risk. Look up lithium battery explosions it's quite an exothermic reaction.

      • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 19:54
        -3

        Sounds like the kind of tripe one would hear on Sky News, reported by people who actually don't care about the environment at all.

        • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 20:58
          +1

          You sound like a fanatic that cant see the bad in your own beliefs. You just cant accept that EV batteries are worse than OIL.

          WHy dont you tell us where all those batteries will go. Show us with real links to any gov.etc.

      • Bonsaichop on 09/02/2023 - 21:51
        +1

        Another thing about oil that most people don't think about is that we depend on crude oil refining for so many things in our day to day life. It's not just fuel, but fertiliser, synthetic fabrics (almost every clothing item these days is part nylon), plastics these are all refined from crude oil and you may not realise it. That's just the tip of the iceberg of what we get from crude oil.

        Chances are you're using an LCD screen to view this, the panel alone is made from several layers of plastic from the light diffuser to the polarising filters.

        I'm all for the reduction of oil refining and production, but we need to realise how many things we depend on are derived from crude oil and we need to find solutions for everything, not just the reduction of petrol consumption.

  • Herbse on 09/02/2023 - 17:08
    -2

    They already are in overseas countries that have placed a date for a ban of production of ice cars. It's Only Australia and a few other third world countries that are being because of decades of inaction and dedication to the technology

    • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 17:28

      A few other third world countries? All of Africa, South America, much of South Asia, Middle East, the old Soviet Union . A few more than a few. Dreaming vs reality at play. You need to travel the world a bit more to see how many and how big third world countries are.

      Thats the point here. the magnitude of this transition WORLD wide will mean EV's arent going to dominate car production for anytime soon.

      Hybrids would make more sense for many 3rd world countries, and help reduce the pollution.

      Try convincing a taxi driver in say Indonesia that his 30 year old Corolla will be replaced by an EV that will last (at best) in most cases 15 years

      • Herbse on 09/02/2023 - 17:49

        The taxi drivers in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia etc drive current model corollas. Last time I went half of them were hybrid.

        • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 18:06

          If so, I guess the example of Indonesia maybe wrong, but I think you get the idea, in many third world countries the cars arent that new and they like making sure they can last a lot longer than the average 10 years we expect here. Also I guess what we call as Taxi is slightly different, they have 3 wheel taxis as well and they are just transitioning from 2 stroke as well.

          • joelmuzz on 09/02/2023 - 18:48

            @RockyRaccoon: Tourist taxis do tend to be quite nice new cars though, that is what gets the tourist customers and wealthy locals.

            And for locals motor scooters dominate, which are far cheaper entry cost than cars and many are just an unrestricted throttle ebike with fairings. If counting scooters then those countries will outpace us in total uptake.

          • Herbse on 09/02/2023 - 18:55

            @RockyRaccoon: There isn't going to be some arbitrary date that we or any country will say "you must stop using ice cars". They are being phased out of production or importing by a target date year, if by that date there is enough access to ev's then they will go ahead with the stop. If not, they will extend it.

            The governments that have put these stops in place by 2030 or 2050 aren't going to say ok now everyone has to buy an ev if the access to one is not as readily available as ice cars.

            And a stop in production/import means everyone who has an ice car will be able to continue driving it until they need to upgrade. There's no ban on driving ice cars in any country that I've seen. So we will have them on the road for the next 50 years plus if countries are able to stick to their 2030 targets or longer if not.

            • RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 19:24

              @Herbse: Agreed, which why I started the thread to indicate that often so many think that things are so definitive when in reality its not that clear cut. Cheers

            • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 19:57

              @Herbse:

              There isn't going to be some arbitrary date that we or any country will say "you must stop using ice cars".

              While this is true, there are certainly other methods of getting ICE cars off the roads. Pollution zones will be an important way of increasing EV uptake. London already has a low emission zone where cars are taxed heavily if they pollute too much. I can imagine this being implemented in many places where they want less noise and less noxious fumes.

              • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 01:05
                -1

                @Euphemistic: Fumes.
                Oh the humanity.

                • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 06:27

                  @Leadfoot6: You wouldn’t rather breathe clean air? Imagine sitting in a queue of traffic knowing that the air isn’t being filled with carbon monoxide and other mucous chemicals from exhaust pipes. Ever seen the brown layer of smog in stdeny after a few days without much breeze? People literally die from that stuff.

    • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 18:36
      -3

      The ban should be on how many trips people make….

      Take business class, there is basically no reason why this should exist. Do you fly to visit the people who make your shoes ? Of course not. There is no need for a visit to sign a paper taht could be done electronically, just like everybody else does.

  • amzinguserman on 09/02/2023 - 17:52

    Like all changes in technology the more time is spent on R&D the better the product.

    It will take time for EV to become as common as ICE cars.

    I say in the next 20 years or so we will see a lot better designs with the charging infrastructure being in place to fill the gaps.

    Even Lightning Ridge has EV charging spots which was interesting to see

    IMO i think the battery of the EV is the most crucial hurdle for EV's , I want to see new models being able to swap out old batteries (Whole or Parts) as a quick process like an oil change ICE cars.

    Also give mechanics some time and experience with servicing EV's .

  • joelmuzz on 09/02/2023 - 18:32

    EU new car sales is at 38% for plug in EV+Hybrid. Very likely they will cross 50% for 2023.

    Australia will be slower uptake mostly due to the ute market, but will still be an increasing percentage of sales.

  • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 18:34
    +3

    Those batteries dont grow on trees. Life is a bit more complicated than pretending because tehres no smoke out the pipe that means Teslas dont cost the environment any pollution or OIL.

    Its amazing how many people dont have much upstairs and cant grasp and ask a few questions about how green the batteries are…and what will happen to them.

    • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 19:58
      -2

      You people don't give a shit about all the CO pollution from cars or the multiple oil spills from oil tankers, so why disingenuously pretend you actually care about the affects of battery production on the environment?

      • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 20:50
        +2

        Why would i write down that oil spills happen because cars need oil ?

        Everybody knows that ICE cars have many horrible consequences on the environment - do i really need to state the obvious ?

        Or should i be a dishonest person like yourself and pretend that EV cars are perfectly green ?

        How about you show some honesty and acknowledge that EV cars are not GREEN.

        Secondy the problem is the batteries are not only bad for the envirnoent because of the OIL cost but where are all these batteries going to go ?

        Please dont tell me recycling - because i challenge you to show me where EV battery recyling happens to cover this problem.

  • Dalton on 09/02/2023 - 18:59

    Self driving cars owned by hire companies will overtake individually owned cars before EVs overtake ICE cars.

    • Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 19:01

      Sorry, just don’t agree.Source?

      • Dalton on 09/02/2023 - 19:08

        No source.

        I question the premise of this argument: that individuals will continue to decide what cars we see on our roads. Once self driving cars become a thing, the days of individuals owning cars will slowly dwindle. I'd say that will happen faster than people expect, because there are a lot of benefits to not owning a car and yet still having one at your beck and call.

        I've talked about this at length with people in the industry and (generally speaking) they agreed. But my post is just a nonsense guess.

        • Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 19:14

          No problem speculating & putting it out there,but i just don’t think it will happen.I really think ICE will be here for a very long time.There has to be choice for people & a mix of technology, as there is now

          • Dalton on 09/02/2023 - 19:18

            @Hackney: Yeah, I agree. ICE will be around for a long time.

            Self-driving is a more pivotal technology than EV because it changes everything. And ICE will still be around when self-driving gets good.

            • Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 19:24

              @Dalton: I personally would love to see Hydrogen as an alternative, Toyota is making quite a bit of noise about it.

              • us3rnam3tak3n on 10/02/2023 - 11:42

                @Hackney: It seems unlikely that one manufacturer can push hydrogen when it needs so much infrastructure to become viable. Just about everyone on the planet already has access to electricity.

          • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 20:52

            @Hackney: Theres a very simple choice.

            Most travel is completely unnecessary, we could and should aim at cutting down road travel by at large amounts.

            For example kids should walk to their local school, its stupid and bad for their health and so on that so many get a lift.

            • RolandWaites on 10/02/2023 - 09:47

              @CowFrogHorse: I agree. Once cars are autonomous and electric (cheap to run), for a large section of the population it doesn't make financial sense to own a car.

              • CowFrogHorse on 10/02/2023 - 10:21

                @RolandWaites: Not discussing ownership im discussing the fact that most travel especially car and train travel is unnecessary.

                • Kids should be walking to school,
                • there should be NO metro to the city, people shouldnt be travelling half way across the city every day to some office. They should be working from home where possible.
                • Gyms should not exist, people shoudl walk around their local area, parks etc should be available so people can enjoy them rather than pretending cars and a gym are better.
    • CowFrogHorse on 09/02/2023 - 20:51

      So why deosnt Tesla offer full legal and financial protection for their Autopilot ?

  • DiscoJango on 09/02/2023 - 20:58
    +1

    Government: sorry our electrical network cant handle everyone running their a/c during summer

    Also the government: everyone should get an electrical car, dont worry, charging them all wont be an issue

  • MrFunSocks on 09/02/2023 - 21:07
    +2

    The Tesla Model 3 just became the first mid size car to beat the Camry in sales in Australia in something stupid like 28 years, so it’s happening faster than most would think.

    • gromit on 10/02/2023 - 07:11

      It did, but that was was as much to do with camry back orders due to pandemic production problems as it was to do with Model 3 surging (i.e. camry sales were down around 20% in 2022 and that is ontop of the 20% they are down since prepandemic). They still only make up a small percentage of the Australian market and doesn't even get them into top 10 manufacturers here.
      i.e. https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/vfacts-australias-new-…

      PS: not suggesting EV's won't eventually take over, but they still make up only around 3% of new car sales, that makes them well over a decade away from dominating sales locally.

    • 91rs on 10/02/2023 - 12:22
      +1

      10,877, that's the total number of T3's sold in 2022.
      1,081,429 that's the total new vehicles sold in 2022.

      1.0057988087983585% of cars.

  • jatbinks on 09/02/2023 - 22:10
    -2

    Basically never.
    Can you imagine a world where there are 100 cars in line to one charger because it takes 5 hours to charge a car.
    Also there isn't enough lithium in the world for everyone to own an electric vehicle.

    • joelmuzz on 10/02/2023 - 23:12
      +1

      Lithium of extremely common so you are just making things up.

      • jatbinks on 10/02/2023 - 23:27
        -2

        It's not. Just google it instead of being ignorant. Turd.

        • gromit on 11/02/2023 - 22:10

          It is the 33rd most common element in the earths crust, almost 50% more common than lead. It is one of the more abundant metals.

    • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 23:28

      Can you imagine a world where there are 100 cars in line to one charger because it takes 5 hours to charge a car.

      You seriously think that only one charger is going to be installed where 100 cars might want a charge at the same time? There might only be a few chargers around now, but there’s not that many EVs yet. Supply and demand baby, there isn’t the demand yet.

      • jatbinks on 10/02/2023 - 23:29

        Even if you have 50 chargers which is unlikely or just one car in queue you would still have to wait 5-10 hours. And then another 5-10 for your own car to charge.

        • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 23:39
          +1

          If there’s 100 cars and 50 chargers it will n out take 5-10 hours to get a turn.

          Fast chargers will give you a decent boost of range in an hour or less. Out of those 100 cars, not all of them are going to need a zero to full charge so slots will open up sooner.

          If you are worried about having to queue you should arrange a charge at a different location, ‘pre charge’ the day before or top it up off a wall socket over night before you leave and get a charge somewhere else on the way. It just means planning a little better.

          So many people trying to work out how it can’t be done, when you can spend a little energy trying to think about the advantages and how to overcome some of the shortcomings.

  • ribze1 on 09/02/2023 - 22:17

    10 years

    • surg3on on 10/02/2023 - 11:30
      -1

      5 years EV will be >50% of sales. 10 years should be 90%+

      My crystal ball/ass

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