How Realistic Will It Be to Expect EV's to Conquer ICE Cars Soon

RockyRaccoon on 07/02/2023 - 20:20
Last edited 07/02/2023 - 20:21

Friends keep telling me that EV's will take over in the next few years. The issue is how long is a few.

I got to thinking and checked on some data. Yep you know from Google, which we all know is 100% accurate. 🤣

That said there is some interesting figures out there. And I roughly rounded the numbers to keep it simple.

Last year world wide around 80 Million cars produced (down on years before). Estimated BEV's produced in 2022 10 Million (Hybrids not in these figures)

Sales of EV's have at least doubled in past year up and doubled the year before that.

Estimated, there are world wide, 1.4 Billion Cars on the road

In Australia the average age of the national car fleet is 10.1 years

Aust June 21 20 Million cars registered 23000 were EV’s

Ignoring general logistics of this occuring, if we say Australia can take even 10% of worlds current production thats 20 years to change over without ever replacing an older EV

Let alone all the other places with populations far greater than ours like our near neighbours, which have a much greater fleet lifespan average.

Is "soon" realistic or are we just dreaming.

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

  • GordonD on 07/02/2023 - 21:03

    Tesla's Model 3 was the best selling passenger car in Australia in January. The only vehicles that more were sold of were two vehicles in the SUV category that there are no EVs to compete with for sales in.

    So by that measure EVs already have "conquered" ICE vehicles. So the answer to the OP's question is that it depends on what you mean by "conquer". When will they make up the majority of new car sales? Not for years yet. When will they be the most common vehicles on the roads? Decades.

    • randomusername2017 on 07/02/2023 - 21:42

      depends on what you mean by "conquer".

      Quarter Mile obv…

        • Brian McGee on 08/02/2023 - 14:15

          I don't really see the point in car reviewers stating 0-60, 0-100, 1/4mile times in roadtests of passener vehicles. They have no correllation to real world motoring. More important would be 60-100, or 80-110 so you know how good they are at getting onto the highway or going for a pass in an overtaking zone.

          • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 17:12

            @Brian McGee: I agree. Most cars are way more fast than we need them to be in regular traffic. The 15yo diesel ute I used to drive was fast enough 90% of the time.

          • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:25
            +1

            @Brian McGee: Judging by the driving habits of people on the road, every single car is rubbish at getting to an acceptable highway speed. Or more like, it won't matter what the car is capable of, when the weakest link is the driver.

    • RockyRaccoon on 07/02/2023 - 22:12

      I wrote it to mean, all EV's vs all ICE. passenger, Ute, SUV etc. Not one model/brand vs another. 😀

    • corvusman on 09/02/2023 - 15:49
      +1

      The Ford Ranger was the highest selling model with 4,749 sales reported. Toyota’s Hi-Lux followed with 4,131. Tesla’s Model 3 was third with 2,927 followed by Mazda’s CX-3 (2,417) and Mazda’s CX-5 (2,189).

      FCAI January 2023 car sales data

      https://www.fcai.com.au/news/index/view/news/789#:~:text=The%20Ford%20Ranger%20was%20the,CX%2D5%20(2%2C189).&text=in%20both%20January%202023%20and,375.4%20vehicle%20sales%20per%20day.

    • Gyr on 11/02/2023 - 20:58

      Love Tesla just for the fact that they're willing to make their flagship car a sedan in 2023

      • GordonD on 12/02/2023 - 21:50

        Yes, this is puzzling. Sedans were a vanishing breed. Seemingly no-one wanted them. If you wanted a small car you bought a hatchback. If you wanted something bigger you bought an SUV. Or you bought a dual cab ute. Then EVs came on the market, led by Tesla, and they are virtually all sedans. Even Tesla's "SUV", the model Y, is an overgrown sedan.

        • Euphemistic on 13/02/2023 - 08:28

          Sedans are better for aerodynamics - better range at highway speeds.

    • ozturtle on 12/02/2023 - 16:07

      This is not a reliable statistic, it is an outlier. A large delivery arrived in January with 4600 Tesla vehicles released from ports, compared to barely any in the months before.

      • Euphemistic on 12/02/2023 - 17:43

        Another reason the Tesla numbers are skewed is because it has next to no competition. If there were a number of similar sized EVs available from other brands, then it’s likely the sales would be split across the other vehicles as well. If ford didn’t make Rangers, all those sales would likely go to Hilux.

        People want EVs. Tesla has been pretty much the only choice.

  • skid on 07/02/2023 - 21:05
    +4

    Unleaded petrol was introduced in the late 80s, around 1987. Super (leaded) petrol was phased out completely in 2002. If EV's take the same trajectory, they might take over in maybe around 10 - 13 years from now?

    • Caped Baldy on 09/02/2023 - 14:31
      -1

      Except EVs cost 50% more initially than equivalent vehicles.

      • filmer on 09/02/2023 - 17:35
        +2

        They really don't. If you compare an ICE vehicle with the same performance and bells and whistles you will find they are reasonably close in price.

        The problem is there aren't any EVs at the lower end.

      • surg3on on 09/02/2023 - 23:20
        +1

        BYD Atto3. $52k outright. Less if you use the government leasing scheme.

        • smithydll on 10/02/2023 - 21:46

          BYD Dolphin, MG 4, and Ora hatchback are coming soon and will be even cheaper.

          • Leadfoot6 on 11/02/2023 - 22:11
            -2

            @smithydll: All from China.
            All purchases helpful for China to invade Taiwan and threaten other Pacific nations…..like Australia.

        • Gyr on 11/02/2023 - 21:21

          Better to pay an extra $10k for a Tesla or a Hyundai than deal with Chinese junk where they create a whole new make every year just to get rid of the stink accumulated on the last one. The lease scheme is huge but they made it weird in that it's more effective for high income earners (due to higher marginal tax rate leading to more savings) but not applicable to cars over a certain value, so it drives a lot of demand from high income earners to base model EVs like Model 3 RWD, when there ought to be a subsidy to make these cars more accessible.

          • surg3on on 13/02/2023 - 09:02

            @Gyr: You mean an extra $20k. If I could get a KIA EV6 I would but they are $80k and only ~500 get allocated per YEAR in aus.

    • Juice-Wa on 09/02/2023 - 16:46

      Definitely not comparable, leaded fuels were phased out because they were a monumental health risk. ICE vs EV is not the same as unleaded vs leaded

      • DONMAI on 09/02/2023 - 21:50

        I think you've just successfully compared them

  • freefall101 on 07/02/2023 - 21:08
    +2

    Depends on how quickly we can make batteries. But really, average age of cars is 10 years, by 2030 most manufacturers are planning on being predominantly or all electric, so by 2035 or so electric should be taking over the roads (because the 10 years is the mean, not the median. There's plenty of cars on the road that are 30-40 years old that drag down the mean).

    IMO though petrol will be a poor tax soon enough. As demand shrinks the cost of refining and distribution will go up, petrol stations will become rarer and margins will increase. The upfront cost of used petrol cars will plummet but the cost to run them will skyrocket. The ozbargain move will be to get out long before they hit 50% of the market.

    • GordonD on 08/02/2023 - 09:51

      Depends on how quickly we can make batteries.

      No, its more complicated than that. There isn't enough lithium to make enough batteries. So its a question of when we can develop a battery technology that we can make enough of.

      • freefall101 on 08/02/2023 - 10:22

        Or find ways to extract lithium. There’s 230 billion tonnes of lithium in the ocean and even more in the earths crust.

        But that’s why I simplified it to how quickly we can make batteries, there’s a million different ways to ramping up production, but whichever one it is that’ll determine how quickly they dominate cars.

      • JumperC on 08/02/2023 - 13:23
        +3

        There’s already enough known reserves to make 9 billion odd cars using the high end estimate for lithium usage per car, and many many times more that in less accessible places. It’s not really an amount question, it’s just a whole process to develop the ability to extract it profitably and in concentrations that make it cost effective. Large scale mines take over a decade to develop and exploration can take longer. Only a decade ago there was basically no demand comparatively so little incentive to explore and develop mine capacity. Ultimately the market balances itself by increasing prices, encouraging more supply, but there’s a huge lag.

        Just to give an idea of how fast it’s progressing the known lithium reserves are increasing by about 30% a year. So you only have to go back 5 years and it doesn’t look like we have enough lithium and now it does….

        • [Deactivated] on 09/02/2023 - 14:45

          Who claims these reserves and what are the geopolitical considerations/implications?

      • noshopping on 10/02/2023 - 21:10
        +1

        they said the same about oil, yet we keep finding more and more.
        they said silver will run out, now if you bought silver and held for past the two decades, you'd be broke.

        • JumperC on 16/02/2023 - 23:07

          Exactly, it’s the 25th most abundant material. Known reserves of something we had plenty of with existing mines a decade ago takes a while to find after an incentive appears. And it doesn’t just run out, you just get lower concentrations become economical over time, especially if the price goes up.

  • AustriaBargain on 07/02/2023 - 21:11
    +3

    Won't be long now. Cost way too much to fill a car with petrol, hundreds of dollars to drive interstate. I'd rather save hundreds of dollars and have to wait at charging stations and I think the average person would too. Long waits at charging stations means people spending more money at towns on highways so it'll be good for them too, taste their terrible food, buy their terrible crap.

    • [Deactivated] on 09/02/2023 - 14:47
      -4

      Clearly a city slicker

    • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 19:59

      What if you actually need to get somewhere quickly?

      • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 20:34
        +2

        More than 400km and you want to get there ‘quickly’? maybe we should have bullet trains.

        But if you must go a long way as quick as possible you stop at ultra fast chargers a few times and add 20%-40% charge in 5min or similar. Enough to get to your destination planned out by the navigation system onboard.

        • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 21:04

          Always deflecting - never solving.

          And once again, imposing directions on others.

          Once off the bullet train, how are you going to get around at your destination?

          Big Government and their adherents love to tell people how to live their lives.

          That is not freedom.

          • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 22:04
            +2

            @Leadfoot6: And there we have it: “MaH FrEeDuMz”. No one is telling you you can’t have a 25yo Magna if you really want one.

            You’ve got choices. You live in Australia.

            As for ‘deflecting never solving’. Im just offering an opinion and attempting to point out options you can’t seem to think of, but that others actually do work with.

            • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 22:11
              -2

              @Euphemistic: My electricity bills are going up despite having what was once a perfectly adequate electricity grid that is being squashed by Green politics.

              All because the chicken littles are believing that "the sky is falling".

              Socialism in action.

              Not much freedom there.

              P.S. My Magna is 19 years old this year.

              I am the one being environmentally responsible by preserving a car that drives perfectly well with a bit of attention from myself to keep it in good shape rather than throwing it away.

              Besides, being the extremely rare AWD version, there is nothing in a sensible budget that can compete with it.

              Many people just adopt the "just buy a new one" approach.

              • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 22:57
                +1

                @Leadfoot6: Electricity bills are going up because coal/gas is an international commodity and the market is at an all time high. The corporations don’t want to save some for us out of the goodness of their hearts, they want maximum profits so they sell to the highest bidder.

                If our governments over the last decade or so hadn’t stuck their head in the sand or cow-towed to the fossil fuel industry and actually properly invested in renewables, then electricity prices would be less affected by the whims of the markets.

                On top of that you could take control and stick some panels on your roof and make your own sparks. The return on investment for a solar system is only a couple of years and they’ll last for 25 years. Or maybe you won’t do that so you can stick it to the Chinese (who are buying our coal and gas at stupidly high prices)

              • p1 ama on 11/02/2023 - 00:01

                @Leadfoot6:

                My electricity bills are going up despite having what was once a perfectly adequate electricity grid that is being squashed by Green politics.

                Can you actually point to what "Green politics" is causing your electricity prices to increase?

                Isn't it obvious to you that, as a finite resource, coal, oil and gas will necessarily have to become more expensive as supply drains and developing economies, e.g. China, India start to become richer, industrialise more and demand more resources?

                All because the chicken littles are believing that "the sky is falling".

                Take the environmental gobbledegook out of it, take the ideology out of it, you can't deny that this is something that we will have to address. If you're smart, you start addressing problems you see on the horizon early.

                Socialism in action.

                Where does socialism (i.e. the common ownership of the means of production) come into play here? Or is "socialism" just everything you happen to not like?

                Not much freedom there.

                This has got to be the most illogical conclusion anyone has ever made.

                The lack of freedom is being completely and totally dependent on tyrants in oil-rich countries. Good luck filling up your car if there was ever a global crisis and supply lines were cut.

                Freedom is being able to do whatever the (profanity) you want to do. You know what is freedom? Wind turbines and solar panels. Because you can put up a wind turbine or a solar panel wherever you want as long as you can make it, and nobody can take away your wind and your sun. This is literally the very definition of freedom.

                FWIW, if you think I'm being glib, I'm not, there is a strong national security reason for becoming more energy independent. How you do that, obviously, is making use of the free sources of energy you already have.

                I am the one being environmentally responsible by preserving a car that drives perfectly well with a bit of attention from myself to keep it in good shape rather than throwing it away.

                Nobody is telling you what to do with your Magna. If you want to keep driving it, do so. Why do you have an opinion on whether others may want to drive EVs?

      • AustriaBargain on 10/02/2023 - 20:40

        Drive faster.

  • vodamerc on 07/02/2023 - 21:11

    Never, full EV isn't the solution. High efficiency hybrid and bio fuels are the future. Just look at what formula one is doing, car manufactures develop technology there and bring it across to production vehicles eventually. Many manufactures are signing back up to the sport because they know this.

    Until you can solve the raw materials problem for making batteries and generate the electricity with little to no emissions then EV's are pointless.

    • JumperC on 08/02/2023 - 13:28
      +1

      Bio fuels take much more energy to make than provide, known lithium reserves are increasing by 30% YoY. Hybrids are more complex to make and overkill for most people. Look at Formula E….

      Electricity can already be produced with little to know emissions something electric car adoption actually accelerates. If you have a house that can have solar there’s little reason to ever pay (more than forgone feed in Tariff) for charging your car for most people.

    • p1 ama on 10/02/2023 - 13:46
      +2

      High efficiency hybrid and bio fuels are the future.

      High efficiency hybrid just means you start putting bigger and bigger batteries in them to increase their efficiency. Taking this point to its logical conclusion, you end up with just a battery. Biofuels are basically a scam - fancy idea, but was never going to be practical and nothing more than a distraction in the scheme of things.

      Until you can solve the raw materials problem for making batteries and generate the electricity with little to no emissions then EV's are pointless.

      You're missing the point. There's a reason why we have an electricity grid, and not have each house with their own backyard generator. You centralise the generation of power because it can be done much more efficiently and you reduce the overlap in the "stuff" you need to generate that power.

      The internal combustion engine on a car is extremely inefficient - the thermal efficiency is around 20%, meaning that only around 20% of the energy released from burning the hydrocarbons actually make it to turning the wheels. For reference, large open-cycle gas turbines can reach up to twice as high of an efficiency, and combined-cycle turbines can reach even higher than that (at around 60%).

      This means that even ignoring the idea of "generating electricity with little to no emissions", burning the same gas in power station is 3x more efficient than burning it in your car. Additionally, it is much cheaper to send electrons over power lines to your house to charge your car than it is to put petrol on trucks to take them around the country.

      For some simple maths, this is quite simple (even ignoring the cost of transporting the petrol around the country - as I don't have clear figures on that):

      ICE vehicle: ~20% thermal efficiency
      EV: ~60% generation efficiency * 97% efficiency in transmission * 90% charging efficiency * 85% linear motor efficiency = ~45% thermal efficiency

      In other words, even if you are using the same gas but burning it centrally, sending the electrons down the power lines and charging your EV, you will need to burn less than half the amount of gas. As mentioned before, this doesn't even take into account petrol transportation costs.

      You need to educate yourself better before just saying stuff that you "believe".

      • vodamerc on 10/02/2023 - 13:47
        -2

        Yeah nah, most of what you've said is complete bollocks.

        FYI - F1 engines have over a 50% thermal efficiency. That same technology will one day be in mainstream cars.

        The latest euro Diesel engines already have a ~45% thermal efficiency.

        • p1 ama on 10/02/2023 - 15:37
          +1

          You're so silly. The thermal efficiency of combustion engines have hardly changed over the past decade. What makes you think they're going to magically change over the next few years?

          FYI - F1 engines have over a 50% thermal efficiency. That same technology will one day be in mainstream cars.

          Wow, am I supposed to be impressed that the efficiency of cutting edge engineering and prototype engines which are designed to last a few races is achieving thermal efficiency in the neighbourhood of what I can get out of an EV E2E today? Wow.

          On the topic of racing, Formula E has 95% thermal efficiency. https://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2439/gen3-facts-performa…

          What is your point exactly?

        • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 15:42
          +1

          Diesel engine efficiency is great if you run it at one speed, but you can’t make a diesel engine that efficient on average when it is used across the rev range. Plus, every time you lift your foot off and coast or idle ALL the energy used in the motor is wasted. An EV will recover energy while slowing down.

  • dtc on 07/02/2023 - 21:40
    +6

    The current problem with EVs, apart from price, is range anxiety and charging anxiety (eg having to wait around for a few hours when it’s busy).

    For many people a second car that is an EV is ideal - charge at home, no long trips; the problem is that small EVs are too expensive as a second car (~55% of households have 2+ cars).

    A lot of manufacturers are seeing their biggest ICE sellers and trying to copy them (and it lets them charge something that isn’t so far removed from the ICE price), but those family cars are the ones that create the most anxiety. Most people I know with a Tesla or large EV don’t use it for long trips unless they are traveling on a main highway, they still have an ICE for those drives (eg Canberra, where I live, to the coast). If a buyer can think of just one or two trips a year that an EV can’t do easily then they won’t buy an EV as a main car (of course they could rent a car for that trip, but people won’t do that)

    Anyway, long winded way of saying I think - in Australia- EVs will first take off as second cars (in the absence of cars with much greater range), but there just aren’t any around that are cost effective. If BYD or Seat or one of those type companies can make a Corolla sized hatch with a good interior and 350km range for $35k, then game on. Big tipping point.

    Otherwise I think australia will go down the plug in hybrid route. EV for city driving and ICE for longer distances. Probably save the average person over 50% of their annual fuel bill

    Unless we start getting legit 750km range or prices drop to below ICE prices. I know no one drives that distance at once, but I often drive 500km over a couple of days without having the ability to recharge (eg camping or driving down for a days fishing and parking the car at the harbour far away from any chargers). That’s the one trip I can’t use an EV for, so I won’t buy one.

    • surg3on on 09/02/2023 - 23:23
      +1

      You and I are different. I dont really do trips over 400km in a day. Maybe once a year.

    • daver on 10/02/2023 - 07:12

      With 950km range ICE, tank half to full, all is done. Agree with an affordable hybrid in the foreseeable if only to have interstate flexibility. Market awaits being answered with twice-bigger batterie to make BYD Dolphin & future hatches 590km, or some proper adoptable range tradeoff this nascent decade.

      • JumperC on 16/02/2023 - 23:18

        My ICE car only gets 450-550km on a tank city/highway. I can tell you having recently driven it from Brisbane to Hobart the human driver is the bit that needs a recharge first.

        Yep, that huge trip would have logistically been more annoying in an EV today, but I can see a 400km range one taking no longer if able to charge overnight and briefly/partially while stopped for lunch.

        And that trip was more than I’ve driven some years. Carrying around a big battery will lower efficiency and cost more to run. Genuinely the 1% that would benefit from that are going to be the last to transition to EV’s because it’s 1% of the 1% who would pay the premium required and pay extra for it. In those cases for the coming decades hybrids are ideal, especially if plug in and such long trips are rare. The downside is keeping an engine and all its complexity around for the sake of very infrequent use. You have to be pragmatic here EV’s may eventually be 100% of use, but it’s not going from 1% to 100% instantly, for most people the only problem is price, not range. The next biggest hurdle is charging availability. The very last one is range/towing capacity at long range, that’s the hardest to reasonably tackle for a reasonable price, for now.

        Before that happens you’re more likely to find charging become substantially more common, almost a requirement for many hospitality venues, especially on travel routes.

        Those on really remote properties will be using diesel for some decades yet for their long haul trips.

        • Euphemistic on 17/02/2023 - 06:04

          You have to be pragmatic here EV’s may eventually be 100% of use, but it’s not going from 1% to 100% instantly, for most people the only problem is price, not range.

          Think that sums it up pretty well. Although, we’ve now got a situation where the marketing departments (of both oil and EV) have been so busy convincing everyone it’s all about range that reducing the price of EVs by putting smaller batteries in will be the death of that EV.

          Most second cars could likely cope with 200km range if the owner can charge nightly. Ie has a garage. But we’ve been sold the line that everyone wants to drive from Sydney to Melbourne every weekend and you have to have 400km range and ultra fast charging. So now apparently we all ‘need’ that so we can’t have little cheap city commuter EVs.

  • RockyRaccoon on 07/02/2023 - 22:07

    Its interesting so far, in that many use the points like range, cost etc to put their arguments for or against, which are all relative to the uptake of EV's, to each their own argument which only time will tell that one.

    My point is that the world just doesnt have the capacity to produce enough EV's to phase it out soon as many who argue the value benefit of the EV expect it will be.

    As I indicated a massive 10% of the worlds current production going, only to Australia will take 20 years. Given we get under current production restrictions only 1 million cars sold last year thats at best 1.2% of the worlds total car production. (all types not just EV"s). We may be a great country but manufacturers probably dont give a rats about us if they have greater demand nearer to them.

    Physically we wont be able to transition soon. Added to that is world lithium battery demand is already constrained and cars arent the only users of that technology.

    Arguments that there will be newer battery technology, which already we are seeing some potential developments that could suit cars better than lithium, may also end up slowing down EV demand in the short run. People resisting the buying of a technology that is being obsoleted.

  • pegaxs on 07/02/2023 - 22:47
    +6

    Mass EV uptake needs to overcome the “I’m not going to buy an EV until it can do 1000km on a single charge and it only takes 30 seconds to charge.” idiots who do 30km round trips to work every day and do 200km on their weekends away, never even getting close to that 1000km requirement they shit talk about.

    The best part of my EV is that I can put fuel in it while I am asleep. People act like having to take 30 seconds to plug your EV in every few days is a “chore”… but will happily wait in a queue at a servo for 10 mins to fill up…

    • coffeeinmyveins on 07/02/2023 - 23:05

      yeah but but but what if i run out of charge in the middle of a drive and i'm 50km from the nearest charger?!

      (ignoring the fact that the exact same thing can happen with your ICE car but it doesn't because you check the gauge)

      • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:15

        yeah but but but what if i run out of charge in the middle of a drive and i'm 50km from the nearest charger?!

        Also don't forget if the next charging station is even compatible with your car and/or if it is not out of order.

        • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:29
          +2

          Or the servo is out of your favourite Dino juice.

          Chargers are pretty much standardised. At worst, you plug into a household point and it takes ages to charge enough to get to the next point. Caravan parks will have 15a points for slightly faster charging.

          • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:36
            +1

            @Euphemistic:

            Or the servo is out of your favourite Dino juice.

            Same same; would go to the next servo.

            Chargers are pretty much standardised

            Pretty much or are ? (Serious question) As I've heard that you could go to one of those charging stations you see in shopping centre car parks these days and it might not fit your car? Or is it just Tesla that have a different connection ?

            • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:40
              +2

              @Danstar: It’s pretty much settled on a standard. Some earlier ones will need an adaptor cable you keep in the car. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if a standard is mandated and things like ‘Tesla only’ will be mandated against. Sure, you might be able to get faster charging from ‘your’ brand but it won’t be completely exclusive.

            • JumperC on 08/02/2023 - 12:05
              +2

              @Danstar: Every electric vehicle sold anywhere outside North America has used exactly the same plug for > 10 years. The standard is well and truely settled except in NA where Teslas use their own plug, though they do have an adapter to use the same plugs as everyone else.

              The only limitation on sharing plugs is Tesla artificially limiting their chargers to their own cars, something they’ve started removing as a restriction recently, though I wouldn’t hold my breath they do everywhere for a while.

              97% of charging people do at home anyway. Charging in public might be a lot cheaper than petrol but at home it can be almost free if you have solar. Public charging is for the average 1 time a year anyone goes beyond charging range from home. Most people could charge back their standard daily commute on a few hours on a standard 10A wall socket found anywhere.

            • pegaxs on 08/02/2023 - 12:42

              @Danstar:

              Pretty much or are ?

              On fast chargers, it's is typically CCS2 or ChaDemo. CCS2 is the dominant DC fast charger connection. ChaDemo is being phased out and only really comes on older Japanese EV's.

              At AC chargers (the ones at shopping centre car parks) are typically Type 2 (Mennekes) and they are compatible with Type 1 with the right cable/adapter.

            • smithydll on 10/02/2023 - 21:59
              +1

              @Danstar:

              Pretty much or are ?

              It is standardised, but there are some older cars that are a holdout as noted below.

              The standard in Australia is the CCS2 connector for DC rapid charging which is compatible with the smaller Type 2 connector for AC charging.

              There are a very small number of ChargePoint type 1's around, mostly in Westfield. No-one is installing them, and ChargePoint has left Australia (you can't sign up for a new account).

              Notable exceptions are Nissan Leaf which have ChaDeMo for DC fast charging. Most public chargers have both connectors so it's not an issue in practice. The Nissan Leaf has Type 2 for AC charging. All ARENA funded public chargers have both DC connectors as it was a condition of funding. There are a surprising amount of Nissan Leafs around and as long as there are, there will be DC fast chargers with ChaDeMo.

              The one notable exception is Mitsubishi PHEV which have type 1 AC charging. If you have one of these, you should always carry an adapter for Type 2 because otherwise you can't charge it anywhere.

              Tesla uses CCS2 / Type 2 in Europe/Australia. The NACS connector has never been used in Australia, we do not have the mess that North America has.

      • Poor Ass on 09/02/2023 - 16:59

        usually they carry around petrol generators at the back of the EV to charge their car

      • iDroid on 10/02/2023 - 10:07

        (ignoring the fact that the exact same thing can happen with your ICE car but it doesn't because you check the gauge)

        Now if they could just get a gauge thingy to work on the electric car too…

    • afoveht on 07/02/2023 - 23:25
      +1

      That's not helped by car manufacturers who generally seem to care more about spouting huge range specs rather than simply making cheaper cars - smaller batteries, less need to accelerate 0-100 in 3sec, simpler finishes, etc.

      When some manufacturer finally makes a $20K runabout that can go 150km on a charge then people might actually get whiff of how suitable an idea it actually is.

      • GordonD on 08/02/2023 - 09:56

        smaller batteries

        Yep, this is the smarter path. Electric city cars. Small, cheap, short range. Have one car like that for most of your use, and not try to complete with ICE cars range. Beat them on what BEVs do better, shopping and commuting. That's what most Australians do most of their kilometres doing.

      • p1 ama on 10/02/2023 - 13:32

        When some manufacturer finally makes a $20K runabout that can go 150km on a charge then people might actually get whiff of how suitable an idea it actually is.

        FWIW, the Nissan Leaf has existed for years.

    • dcep on 08/02/2023 - 01:03
      +1

      what about cbd and inner cities where high density and most populated areas that people living in?

      not everyone has a garage with their own charger.

      you can use fingers and toes to count the available chargers there.

      • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 06:12

        There’s no point having a million chargers right now. There’s not that many cars but it’s changing. When ICE cars were new there wasn’t a servo on every block and the outback was a wasteland with no fuel too.

        Norway is way ahead of us. Something like 80% of new passenger car sales are EV. They made it work, it does work. We are so far behind because our previous governments were convinced by oil companies that EVs weren’t for Australia because everyone wants to drive 800km per day once a week when the reality is that most cars do what Pegaxs says above. 30km/day and 200km on the weekend.

        The beauty of electric charging is that we’ve already got the distribution network, it’s largely just a matter of sticking the charge socket at where ever you want one.

        Yes, it’s more difficult for inner city EVs to charge now, but soon you’ll be able to get a charge anywhere you are likely to park for more than 1hr. Especially businesses that want you to park and stay for an hour.

        • Nugs on 08/02/2023 - 08:51
          +4

          One big advantage for Norway, and I'm not saying it is the only reason. it's just A reason

          Australia is approximately 7,741,220 sq km, while Norway is approximately 323,802 sq km, making Norway 4.18% the size of Australia.
          .

          • ESEMCE on 08/02/2023 - 09:49

            @Nugs: Irrelevant for all but 5% of the population.

            Just look at mobile phone coverage maps.
            Telstra claim 2.6million SqKm coverage which is 99.4% of the population.
            Telstra Wholesale claim 1.6 million sqKm covering 98.8% of the population (ie roughly the same as Optus)

            Add on a fudge factor of 200% for people travelling through to get 5%

            Stick a charger once every 200Km (ie at the existing Petrol stations/roadhouses or at the Public Toilet blocks) through the Telstra Wholesale/Optus land area and you have EV range suitable for the vast majority of the population (arguably all of the possible EV market)

          • JumperC on 08/02/2023 - 13:37
            +1

            @Nugs: You can drive much further from your home in Norway than you can in Australia. You can pop off for a visit to Portugal without so much as needing a passport.

            The advantage they have had is extremely favourable perks and tax treatment for EVs more than geography. Most people there or here don’t actually drive very far 99.99% of days just because they can.

            • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 15:38

              @JumperC:

              You can drive much further from your home in Norway than you can in Australia

              That doesn’t make any sense.

              • JumperC on 16/02/2023 - 23:41

                @Euphemistic: Neither does driving from Sydney to Perth directly. You can drive without using a ferry from Oslo to Cape Town if you like.

                That’s a lot further than any trip people make in Australia. The relative geographic size of the countries is not important, the how far people drive how often is very relevant. You can drive from Oslo to Lisbon without so much as a passport but that distance didn’t make any difference to their EV take up. They made them relatively cheaper than in most countries. (ie less of a premium over ICE cars). Then they lowered registration/parking/ferry fees.

                Lots of people not buying EVs in Australia are making perfectly rational decisions not based on range. If you don’t drive that much the extra capital cost may not be worth it. It’s exactly that group of people who are under served by the existing EVs sold here.

                • Euphemistic on 17/02/2023 - 07:18
                  +1

                  @JumperC: Fair enough. I’d guess in Norway you’ll pass through a lot more population centres than you do driving from syd-Perth.

                  I’d argue that many aren’t making rational decision based on range. they think they drive more distance than they do plus they don’t recognise that largely you can easily start EVERY day with a full charge. It’s more about price, and largely because we don’t have cheap, short range city commuter EVs yet. It’s all about SUVs and long range in our market.

          • Big Willy Style on 10/02/2023 - 13:56
            +1

            @Nugs: People generally aren't driving from Brisbane to Perth, so the size of the country isn't that important. Australia is more urbanised than Norway (Australia 86.36% urban population, Norway 83.32%). Australia is actually more urbanised than much of Europe. Australia certainly has longer commutes but your average commute can be handled comfortably by electric vehicles.

        • dcep on 08/02/2023 - 11:52

          Chicken and egg. See if Norway invests on charging infrastructure and power generation from early on, or wait till shxt hits the fan like our rental crisis housing shortage ; or power shortage blackouts from closing down coal plants.

          Ohh let's start building more now as the problem has gotten too serious..

    • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:14
      +7

      but will happily wait in a queue at a servo for 10 mins to fill up…

      Not sure who your friends are, but I can't remember the last time I waited in line to use a petrol pump; and if there ever was a queue, I would just drive to the next station (which is usually/literally next door).

      • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:33

        It still takes time to go out of your way to get petrol, every single time. If you’ve got off street parking, you fill to full every night anyway.

        • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:37
          +3

          It still takes time to go out of your way to get petrol

          Not really if you're smart about it and don't wait till you're completely empty and need to fill up asap. (I know same can be said for charging your car too). But in theory it is much easier and quicker to fill up a petrol car, than it would be to fast charge your EV

          • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:43

            @Danstar:

            (I know same can be said for charging your car too).

            So it’s not a valid point then. It’s just a change in the way you do things. Just like you say, you take advantage of charging when you can just like filling before empty.

            But in theory it is much easier and quicker to fill up a petrol car, than it would be to fast charge your EV

            In time waiting by the car EV will be quicker. With petrol you need to actually stand there while it fills with EV charge you plug in and walk away, then unplug when you return.

            • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:48
              +1

              @Euphemistic:

              In time waiting by the car EV will be quicker. With petrol you need to actually stand there while it fills with EV charge you plug in and walk away, then unplug when you return.

              2 minutes vs. 20 minutes. What if you're in a rush?

              Also; as I've noted in another comment; most places don't have an abundance of chargers. So when we're getting more EVs on the road; imagine walking away for 2 hours while you go shopping or maybe you live nearby and never move your car till the next day. Imaging you're the poor person waiting.

              • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 15:40

                @Danstar: If you are in a rush, you need to plan better. Same thing with petrol cars. You need to plan to get petrol too.

                Thousands of EV drivers have made the switch and won’t ever go back. They worked around the problems and largely love the EV experience.

                • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 16:54

                  @Euphemistic: I’m never in a rush. I just don’t have time to wait for anything at this point in my
                  Life.

                • Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 17:17
                  -1

                  @Euphemistic: It is because they are "eco warriors", determined to be standard bearers for the Greenies.
                  They are happy to make sacrifices or assume burdens to prove a point.
                  Once again, the world is not going to end any time soon due to "climate change(formerly known as "global warming")".

                  • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 22:19

                    @Leadfoot6: So you’re a climate scientist are you?

                    Not just greenies buying EVs. People who want to stick it to fossil fuel cos, people who want a quiet, low maintenance, fast car they never have to fill with smelly fuel, people who recognise that in most measurable ways EVs are better also buy them.

                    • Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 23:24
                      -2

                      @Euphemistic: Low Maintenance/Smelly fuel??
                      Poor diddums.
                      Will filling a petrol tank at the bowser scratch your nail polish?
                      Are you a metrosexual?

                      • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 00:06

                        @Leadfoot6: You’ve obviously got nothing if you’re reaching for insults. Insults that incidentally I don’t find insulting, but rather they’re just sad.

                        • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 00:48
                          -1

                          @Euphemistic: I've got plenty.
                          As in plenty of reasons why EV cars will only "make it" if they are forced on the general population.
                          Note the tax credits and subsidies to encourage purchase and the setting up of charging stations.
                          Are you on a higher plane with your snide remarks about me, or people like me, being resistant to change and accordingly somehow a sub-standard class of people?
                          I'll say again, I should be allowed to change WHEN I WANT TO NOT WHEN I AM MADE TO.
                          If I wanted to be closely directed as to what decisions I can make, I will move to China or equivalent.

                • geech on 09/02/2023 - 22:10
                  +2

                  @Euphemistic: Thousands may have made the switch, but there’s a lot more that haven’t. I’d love to switch to an EV, and even though one might suit 80% of my car usage, there’s a good chunk that wouldn’t.

                  There’s plenty of genuine reasons an EV doesn’t suit various usage situations and putting it down to a lack of planning is a bit simplistic. I agree with dtc that EV’s make a great case for around town cars, or as a second vehicle (even if it’s used the majority of the time) - but until there’s significant improvement in range, I just can’t see it being a viable primary/only car for a lot of people.

                  • Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 22:24

                    @geech: Why does everyone bang on about needing more range? You start every day with a full tank of fuel. Most people only drive more than 300km in a day a couple of times a year. Stopping for a quick tip up charge on if you’re driving more than 3GS just makes sense. Bladders can only hold so much and stretching your legs for 20min really makes a long day in the car more bearable.

                    • geech on 10/02/2023 - 07:37
                      +2

                      @Euphemistic: Most people does not mean all people. Like I said, for me an EV would make sense for the majority of my usage, but not all of it.

                      The simple comment of just stopping for 20 minutes for a charge doesn’t stack up either. Some people do drive for more than 500km in a day, and so you’re going to need multiple charging stops, and they’re going to take more than 20 minutes each.

                      • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 07:46

                        @geech: The people that actually do drive more than 500km in a day can get the long range version, or stick with ICE. The rest of us will be happy to save $10k on the battery pack and suffer the indignity of enjoying a decent lunch break on our travels while we get a top up charge.

                        Massive range is a furphy sold by the fossil fuel companies to increase the cost of EVs and make them seem useless. It’s not the reality. I’ve seen plenty of EVs up the pacific highway on holidays. They don’t ruin the weekend.

                        • Bobby Hill on 11/02/2023 - 05:12

                          @Euphemistic:

                          The people that actually do drive more than 500km in a day can get the long range version, or stick with ICE.

                          Massive range is a furphy sold by the fossil fuel companies to increase the cost of EVs and make them seem useless. It’s not the reality.

                          Which one is it?

                          Range anxiety is an issue. That is a fact. Throw your deluded views out the door.

                          • Euphemistic on 11/02/2023 - 06:55

                            @Bobby Hill: Range anxiety is an issue played up by the anti EV crowd. It’s the reason we can’t get a decent city car with ‘commuter’ range. Ie 150-200km which is more than suitable for 90% of the time, or more likely 100% of the time while a family has 2 cars and one is still ICE. When you charge nightly, you don’t normally need a huge range.

                            Manufacturers are stuffing in mega sized batteries into cars and the capacity just will not be used for the vast majority of the time. Capacity that costs serious $

                            There will always be the case for driver actually using extended range, so the manufacturers need to offer longer range versions, despite often not being necessary.

    • dtc on 08/02/2023 - 09:51

      idiots who do 30km round trips to work every day and do 200km on their weekends away, never even getting close to that 1000km requirement they shit talk about.

      However EVs dont do 1000km. Most do around 400km and many people will drive 400km without being near a charger particularly if they are in the country/driving to the country, camping or not staying in a house (eg staying in a unit or a hotel). If you only do one or two trips a year where your EV is unsuited or very inconvenient, why buy an EV (and saying 'just rent a car for those trips' isnt an answer. Ever tried to hire a car at Christmas, for example?)

      EVs are great if you never leave the city or if you only drive on major highways that have a good charger network. As I said above, EVs make fantastic second cars, they are just too expensive. Your comment is all about using the EV as a city car from your home base. Yes, most people do that most of the time, but many people do not do that some of the time. That is where the EV limitations hit.

      I dont think 1000km is needed, but we need genuine 600km and probably 750km, which is the range of an ICE with a full tank.

      Not sure saying people queueing for 10 minutes at a petrol station is a great argument, since you have to 'queue' at a charger for at least an hour, once you find one and hope no one is ahead of you. Anyway, I cannot recall every queueing for 10 minutes. It might take 7 or 8 minutes in total to fill up the car, but you are then needing to compare that against charger time

    • boomramada on 08/02/2023 - 14:49
      +2

      That's not the real issue.
      EV cost at least 20k more than comparable ICE, to get real economical benefit, you need to drive it like a taxi.
      Not everyone got spare $40k in their bank account for the replacement.
      Good thing about ICE, people can patch it up and keep use it, very small outlay, even with a very old car.
      Currently people drive EV interstate like their are on a expedition, but realistically when everyone on EVs, it be a nightmare, imagine all the charging needs for M5 3hr traffic on Sundays.
      Based on US market, EV deprecate just as bad as Euro car, so when battery need replacing there be more junk to recycle.
      Realistically, if you got a EV, you need a ICE car as backup, unless you don't drive much, so this isn't for everyone.

      Finally, all we doing is feeding the Chinese economy with all the cheap EVs.

      If you really worry about the environment, just by city driving, just catch the bus.

      • pegaxs on 09/02/2023 - 07:58
        -1

        Well, 90% of that reply is ignorant, regurgitated EV fear mongering garbage.

        There is so much nonsense in your reply, it would take a full page to tell you why you’re wrong on just about everything you just said, and ain’t no one going to want to read that.

        • boomramada on 09/02/2023 - 13:08
          +1

          What you doing here, your tiktok video of, Day with my Tesla, didn't get enough hits?

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