How Realistic Will It Be to Expect EV's to Conquer ICE Cars Soon

RockyRaccoon on 07/02/2023 - 20:20
Last edited 07/02/2023 - 20:21

Friends keep telling me that EV's will take over in the next few years. The issue is how long is a few.

I got to thinking and checked on some data. Yep you know from Google, which we all know is 100% accurate. 🤣

That said there is some interesting figures out there. And I roughly rounded the numbers to keep it simple.

Last year world wide around 80 Million cars produced (down on years before). Estimated BEV's produced in 2022 10 Million (Hybrids not in these figures)

Sales of EV's have at least doubled in past year up and doubled the year before that.

Estimated, there are world wide, 1.4 Billion Cars on the road

In Australia the average age of the national car fleet is 10.1 years

Aust June 21 20 Million cars registered 23000 were EV’s

Ignoring general logistics of this occuring, if we say Australia can take even 10% of worlds current production thats 20 years to change over without ever replacing an older EV

Let alone all the other places with populations far greater than ours like our near neighbours, which have a much greater fleet lifespan average.

Is "soon" realistic or are we just dreaming.

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

  • [Deactivated] on 07/02/2023 - 20:36
    +25

    Even when sales eventually mean EVs are dominant, it will take a long time before they are dominant on our roads. As a RHD market, with no local manufacturing, we have very little say in anything.

    There are two things that will make EV adoption more widespread, batteries getting cheaper, or petrol getting more expensive.

    TLDR: Soon, but not that soon.

    • Morien on 07/02/2023 - 21:08
      +34

      I agree.
      You have people who want to buy an EV because they believe it is good for the environment/want to drive an EV. You have people who stubbornly don't want to buy an EV because they don't believe it matters/think it isn't masculine/whatever reason. But both of those groups of people are dwarfed by the third: those who buy whatever saves them money.

      If EVs get cheaper, and petrol gets more expensive, then that will sway the most minds.

      • pegaxs on 07/02/2023 - 22:56
        +46

        Then there is the 4th group, people like me who don’t want the bullshit that comes with ICE vehicles.

        I don’t want the servicing. I don’t want to ever go near a fuel station ever again. I want to just get my fuel from a hole in my garage wall. I don’t want the noise or the smell… these are the “convenience” buyers. Wanting cars that just make their life easier.

        • Morien on 07/02/2023 - 23:52
          +5

          Funny. You and I are in the 4th group, yet I didn't mention us at all!

        • saltypete on 08/02/2023 - 08:17
          +1

          I’m hearing you brother!!

        • Harold Halfprice on 09/02/2023 - 23:34
          +2

          I don’t want the servicing.

          You realise EVs still require routine serving right?

          The mechanical components still need to be maintained (suspension, brakes, drive train, tyres, cooling system) and whilst they don't have a combustion engine, they've got far more complex electronics.

          You're looking at about $300/year averaged over the life of the car.

          And that isn't factoring in the cost of replacing the battery, which will eventually need to be replaced once you start approaching that 10 year mark.

          • RandomDealHunter on 10/02/2023 - 08:57
            +8

            @Harold Halfprice: We own a Tesla Model Y and it has no service requirements for the life of the vehicle. I know at some point all of the above items you mentioned may need to be looked at but from the outset these are not cost considerations especially brakes as most work is done by regen. Tyres need to be rotated and Tesla does that at $49 and replaced when required.

            I am an engineer and personally curious to see how this goes being an early (ish) adopter.

            • Logical on 10/02/2023 - 16:57

              @RandomDealHunter: Maybe you are an early (ish) adopter of the Y, as the Model 3 has been around AU for quite a number of years.

              • RandomDealHunter on 11/02/2023 - 10:00

                @Logical: Agree with Model 3 and Y timelines.

                But I am looking from a perspective of complete EV adoption by Australia as a car market. With less than 100K cars currently in Australia, the total number is dwarfed by ICE for now.

                In the future, there would need to be a parallel industry setup for EVs just like ICE related industry such as Mechanic workshops, training centres etc. I am curious and excited to see the transition.

                • Euphemistic on 11/02/2023 - 12:30

                  @RandomDealHunter:

                  In the future, there would need to be a parallel industry setup for EVs just like ICE related industry such as Mechanic workshops, training centres etc.

                  It’ll cross over. Suspension, body repair etc will all be the same workshops as ICE. The difference will likely be the batteries which will be taken up by auto electricians.

          • billy_bob on 10/02/2023 - 10:18
            -1

            @Harold Halfprice: "replacing the battery" will not be a realistic option for most electric vehicles due to :
            1) the battery is incorporated into the structure of the vehicle in most new EV's for packaging and weight efficiency
            2) if the battery is physically able to be replaced, the cost to do so will be far higher than what the vehicle is worth, so most owners would rather put that money towards a new car.

            This means that most EV's will become landfill once the battery is no good. People need to factor this into their thinking when discussing how "green" EV's are compared to ICE vehicles.

            • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 10:48
              +1

              @billy_bob: EVs won’t ‘become landfill’ they’ll be a valuable resource for materials. Just like most car bodies don’t become landfill now. All those materials already out of the ground in a form that doesn’t need a lot of refining. Straight to recycle plant.

              New big battery factories are being built with recycle facilities on site.

              • RockyRaccoon on 10/02/2023 - 15:31
                +1

                @Euphemistic: You really do come up with statement's that appear simple fixest until we look at the details.

                1. This is in the UK - can recycle a mininium, of 10000 tonnes of Li-ion batteries a year. The same Guardian article says grenpeeace expects 12.85 million tonnes to go off line in 10 years from 2021 thats 100X the minimum capacity of this plant each year. Great to see but will require much more to be built and that will accelerate as EV's also gain better acceptance.

                2. The cost of this plant was $175 million, so it aint cheap.

                billy_bob didnt say that it couldnt be done, just that its not as clean as many think it is. And that is true. Nothing comes without a disposal cost and impact on the environment.

                This is a radical change not a simple one. there are many issues, time will solve those. Some will jump into it which is fine, but others will wait. And as we know the ramp up will take time. No manufacturer is going to build that many cars to replace every ice car overnight or even over a 10-15 year period, the investment in capacity that will then taper off after all the replacements has occured, means they will need to judge they dont have wasted investments.

                • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 15:46

                  @RockyRaccoon:

                  grenpeeace expects 12.85 million tonnes to go off line in 10 years from 2021 thats 100X the minimum capacity of this plant each year.

                  You don’t think that in 10years we can’t build stuff to take advantage of all those tonnes? If I was a betting person I’d put money on the smart planners already having fairly clear ideas of what and where to build to meet that expectation.

                  Lots of commenters seem to think that there aren’t any forward thinkers on this planet and that the fossil fuel industry doesn’t actually recognise there in their last throes of death so will be making significant investment for the future. Of course a couple of them are going to be like Kodak and will die, but look at other camera companies that embraced digital, they have gone from strength to strength. Sony don’t still make beta VCRs.

                  • RockyRaccoon on 11/02/2023 - 07:43
                    +1

                    @Euphemistic: I started the thread to get thoughts based on what people know and what they dont.

                    Based on comments here I have then gone and looked at information from many sources. Which is enlightening

                    While we would all agree a newer way of enabling us to get around faster, cheaper and more environmentally friendly and reliable is what we desire (of course to diffent emphasis on which is most critical), Some also want more ability to move goods and chattels as well.

                    To understand that needs at least some facts or sources. Simple betting on some smart planners already having clear ideas might work for a pollie canvassing votes doesnt really tell us much.

                    Likewise the Tech history is full of new products being surpassed by others. Betamax was better than VHS . VHS was then effectively dead 25 years after it was introduced. On that analogy Li Ion EVs that started 10 years ago could also end up like VHS. Insights like that can be bet on reliably in 15 years time.

                    We know from all your posts you are in love with your EV and all power to you and it, but what you want to bet on, can be as valuable as the tip at a racecourse from someone who "knows" a jockey . Thats all.

                    • Euphemistic on 11/02/2023 - 09:26

                      @RockyRaccoon: That last paragraph wasn’t directed at you, I can see you are listening to the discussion points

                      I don’t have an EV. I want one, but we haven’t got a twin cab 4wd ute version yet. It’s also difficult to get an EV for the price of a third hand Camry and expensive to run an extra vehicle.

                      I can see the benefits of EVs, I’ve also tried to understand the ‘issues’ that many have with them. I struggle with the crowd that have been brainwashed by fossil fuel sympathisers or simply can’t understand or bluntly don’t like change. It’s amazing how many naysayers come out of the woodwork the second anything remotely environmentally friendly is mentioned. Especially if it is less than a perfect replacement for what they currently have.

            • Kiro on 11/02/2023 - 12:35
              +2

              @billy_bob: Don't know why you have been negged but they are the most valid points when looking at an EV and it's life expectancy.

              Also another point is commercial vehicles won't be able to compare to current ICE types.
              Lastly recreation duck as towing is a big issue, I don't see how an EV can tow a caravan, camper trailer etc without severely limiting range.

          • pegaxs on 10/02/2023 - 14:20
            +12

            @Harold Halfprice:

            You realise EVs still require routine serving right?

            You realise that EV servicing involves basically looking at the car and not much else? Brake components dont need changing as often due to regen. Brake fluid doesn't need to be changed as often because it doesn't get heat cycled as much. Coolant doesn't need to be changed as often because it isn't running at extremes near boiling. Gearbox oils are usually fill for life, or long life because there is no "gear changes" being down, it's only for reduction. No transmission, no engine oils.

            they've got far more complex electronics.

            And the electronics on an EV are far LESS complicated than ICE. There no MAF/MAP/Cam angle/Crank angle/DPF/O2/Knock/Inlet temp/Boost/injector/fuel rail pressure/etc… sensors and switches on an EV. Engine wiring harnesses on ICE vehcles are a nightmare. An on EV motor, there is power cables and a hall effect sensor. Trust me, as a mechanic and diagnostic technician, ICE vehicle electronics are WAY more complicated than EV's. (And dont even get me started on transmission electronic controls…)

            And that isn't factoring in the cost of replacing the battery

            That isnt a factor… are you factoring in replacing the engine in your car at 200,000km?? And 10 year mark… Where did this arbitrary number come from?? They said the same shit about cars with airbags back when they were starting to be standard equipment "Oh, dont touch a car with airbags, they will need to be replaced in 10 years and they are $5,000 each…"

            • Harold Halfprice on 10/02/2023 - 20:39

              @pegaxs:

              You realise that EV servicing involves basically looking at the car and not much else?

              Yeah, except you still need to bring it in at 12 month intervals and it still sets you back roughly the same.

              So when you say "I don't want the servicing" I'm not exactly sure what you mean.
              https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/cheapest-electric-cars-se…

              There are plenty of reasons to get an EV, but not wanting the "servicing" isn't really one of them.

              That isnt a factor… are you factoring in replacing the engine in your car at 200,000km?? And 10 year mark… Where did this arbitrary number come from??

              Plenty of engines last well beyond 200,000kms. On most vehicles, the engine isn't the issue at 200,000kms it's all the other components. Go have a look at how much your average taxi clocks on a camry. I know someone who used to own a few taxis. Falcons, camrys with over 1mill on the original engine - diffs, suspension, gearboxes all replaced multiple times however.

              The 10 year mark comes from the fact that batteries aren't new in cars. Hybrid vehicles have been around for a very long time, and the batteries on those tend to go around the 10 year mark give or take.

              EVs don't have anything special for their batteries. They run standard lithium ion cells.

              However it seems like I've personally offended you by pointing out that EVs need maintenance and servicing. If that's the case I apologise.

              • SitarBoy on 11/02/2023 - 02:38

                @Harold Halfprice: Some EVs from the likes of BMW and Mercedes still require a yearly service. This is mostly because these cars are not built on a dedicated EV platform rather an ICE platform adapted to be an EV.

                Dedicated EVs such as Tesla dont have the same servicing needs. There are many videos online showcasing the reduced servicing costs associated with EVs. Even Hertz who bought many Teslas are claiming that maintenance costs are greatly reduced.
                (Source: https://thedriven.io/2022/08/05/hertz-says-tesla-fleet-of-re…).

                While plenty of engines last beyond 200,000kms. Thats mostly down to regular maintenance required to keep them going (maintenance which increases as time goes on as more parts start to wear).

                Logically speaking, fewer parts means fewer points of failures. While I definitely agree that the parts on an EV are significantly more expensive to replace if things go wrong. I do believe that once EVs become more popular there will be solutions to issues that dont revolve around replacing an entire battery or motor.

                Also to mention Hybrid batteries from ten years ago are no match for the batteries being used these days. Tesla uses LFP in their base Model 3 and Y. These batteries have much longer longevity and very little degredation. (Source: https://www.cummins.com/news/2022/09/30/5-fast-facts-know-ab…).

                There is a lot of misinformation surrounding EVs. While there are genuine concerns about emissions in battery manufacturing and charging, there are many major benefits to owning an EV.

              • pegaxs on 13/02/2023 - 11:08
                +1

                @Harold Halfprice:

                Yeah, except you still need to bring it in at 12 month intervals and it still sets you back roughly the same.

                No you dont and no it doesn't. Most of the servicing intervals on EV's are because stealerships want their hands in your pocket, nothing more. They need to justify their existence, and that is hard to do with a car that needs almost no consumables and nothing to change.

                And roughly the same price?? And my car needs no filters, no oil, no fluids, no adjustments, no belts, no spark plugs, no gaskets… Just a look at the suspension and cables, check the brakes aren't worn out, maybe rotate the tyres and I'm gone.

                So when you say "I don't want the servicing" I'm not exactly sure what you mean.

                I dont want to replace, engine oil, gearbox oil, engine oil filter, air filter, fuel filter, transmission filter, spark plugs, timing belts, coolant every 2 years, brake fluid every 12 months. I want a car that takes them 20 mins to look over and check for damage, report on brake wear, slap it on the arse and send it.

                …but not wanting the "servicing" isn't really one of them

                It most certainly is. It's a HUGE one of them.

                Plenty of engines last well beyond 200,000kms.

                Plenty of batteries last more than 200,000km… You have a look at any "Hybrid" Camry taxi in your city and see that some of these have 500~700,000km on them, still on original batteries. There was a post on here recently where a guy looks like he needed a new traction battery for his Prius… at 400,000+km. Yes, some ICE can last over 200,000km, but so too can batteries.

                There is this fascination that once a battery gets to 10 years old, it just stops working completely… and that is just nonsense. Yes, some cars will, and no, some cars wont. It is like ICE vehicles… Some will make it to 10 years and 200,000km, some, wont.

                They run standard lithium ion cells.

                No, they dont. My EV runs LiFePo4 batteries. Some run LiPo batteries, some run other chemistry (Lead acid, NiCd or NiMH). In the near future, they could be running graphine or salt based batteries. The technology is always changing and getting better. And all this considering the basic design of the ICE has remained the same for about thew last 50+ years…

                However it seems like I've personally offended you by pointing out that EVs need maintenance and servicing

                I'm not offended, why would I be offended at your misinformation? I know they need some level of servicing, but it is nowhere near the level of ICE vehicles (no timing belt to change at 100,000km for $1,800+ on an EV)

                I'm just here to let people know who otherwise would not know that what you are saying is utter garbage and myth. For every negative example you can give for an EV, I can think of the exact or near equivalent in ICE vehicles. So, no, I'm not "offended", because people like you spouting bullshit gives me a chance to go back over and reaffirm my research and offer a counter point to anti-EV bullshit. Perhaps I should be thanking you??

                • RockyRaccoon on 13/02/2023 - 16:26
                  +1

                  @pegaxs: Hybrid Camry batteries are NIMH and are set up differently from the Li-Ion batteries in an EV. So be careful you arent comparing the same. Toyota has kept NiMH batteries in Camrys that are subject to extreme weather conditions due to their ability to handle that better than Li-Ion

                  Also a small point but again Camrys dont use timing belts so the 100K limit doesnt apply.

                  Not all big points but there can be misinformation from all sides, some more extreme than others

                  • Euphemistic on 13/02/2023 - 16:46

                    @RockyRaccoon: Li-ion is OK, just needs battery temperature management more than NiMH. Toyota have stuck with the easier option.

                  • pegaxs on 13/02/2023 - 22:12

                    @RockyRaccoon: A battery is a battery in a BEV. Doesn’t matter if it is LiIo, LiPo or a lemon with 2 coins stuck in it, I was talking about BEVs "in general" irrespective of their battery chemistry, because anti-EV pundits don’t care about battery chemistry, they just use the word “battery” to encompass ALL batteries in all EVs.

                    I am not going to break down every single battery chemistry pro's and cons for every different vehicle and their battery configurations on the market if all the anti-ev crowd are going to do is use the word "battery" to mean any battery. If it’s good enough for them to generalise, then it’s good enough for me.

                    And I don’t care about the Camry timing belt. The Camry was an example about battery life exceeding 200,000km, not cam belts. I made no direct reference to the Camry having to have a cam belt replaced. You made that comparison.

                    Did you expect me to go through and list every ICE vehicle that doesn’t have a timing belt? Or how about I just list all the BEV that do have a timing belt?? That would be a much shorter list.

                    I get it, you’re certainly anti-ev leaning and have been trying to “catch me out” but there is no misinformation in what I typed out, so I don't get the point of your “ but there can be misinformation from all sides…” snide remark there.

                    The two things you pointed out as "my" misinformation was a: me speaking generally about BEVs and not any particular battery chemistry for the sake of brevity, and b: about something I never referenced together, being Camry and timing belts.

                    If that is the best you can muster, me speaking about batteries ”in general” and then combining two things that I, myself did not combine… then try harder.

                    • RockyRaccoon on 14/02/2023 - 08:01

                      @pegaxs: I was trying to point out that using various examples from different points isnt what will indicate the life of any specific vehicle. (I also mentioned this in my post just below a few days earlier)

                      As for being anti EV, thats the best you seem to offer when not everyone believs that EV is the solution or the best choice for them now.

                      Surprised you didnt just call me a "denier" that seems to be the goto put down, when someone has another point of view.

                      Horses make sense fo some people, so does public transport, EV scooters ICE bikes, Goods trains.

                      My point has always been is that EV's now are NOT the solution of everyone. Some clever aspects make compelling arguments for its adaption, but not in all cases. Like solar panel charging. Yep if you park at home during the day, and dont use the excess electricity at home, or you dont use it as a battery to power the home at night, and you dont live in a highrise where you cant have panels. One day we may have panels built into walls and windows - thats being developed now.

                      It is a solution for some and great for them and the planet.

                      Its an evolving solution which is also great, as it will mean better technology and efficiency that one day we will all benefit from. There are already plans to wire roads to charge EV's as they drive. But given many countries still have vast amounts of dirt roads dont expect that to be worldwide in our lifetimes.

                      As you indicated there are many forms, and some may survive and some may not. Keep in mind its you who have now brought into the argument BEV etc when the discussion was orginally EV's and how that production limitations plus potential Worldwide conditions make its complete dominance unlikely within "the next few years".

                      As for being anti EV, yep I am, for me. As an owner of a BEV to me thats the best transition I can make for price and convenience for my lifestyle (after waiting 9 months for its delivery). A technology that would suit many countries that dont have the ability to set up chargers all around and everywhere, while at least reducing emissions.

                      Just because Pegaxs has vision and wants it, doesnt mean it will happen right now and everyone can desire or afford to jump now, if they could even order one.

                      • pegaxs on 14/02/2023 - 10:57

                        @RockyRaccoon:

                        when not everyone believs that EV is the solution

                        I've never stated that they are. EV's work for some people and not for others. I am not "pro-EV" or "anti-ICE" I am just anti-BULLSHIT. If someone was bullshitting as much about ICE, I would just as willingly put a halt to their information… (see any of my posts on the usual E10 and 98RON bullshit threads)

                        EV's now are NOT the solution of everyone.

                        I've never said that they are…

                        Anyway, the rest of what you have written reads like you are deliberately trying to obfuscate what I am saying in an attempt to make some sort of "gotcha". I've said what I've needed to say about Harold's misinformation and will happily talk about that, but what I am not going to do is entertain you while you deliberately misrepresent what I am saying or taking two unrelated comments, mashing them together in some lame attempt to catch me out.

                        "Woah! You said 'spark plugs', and we all know the 90 series LandCruiser Prado with the 1KZ-T diesel engine doesn't have spark plugs! Ergo, everything you just said was misinformation…"

                        • RockyRaccoon on 14/02/2023 - 12:03

                          @pegaxs: Well I Guess we are coming at the BS angle from different directions. Hence my OP addressing the belief it can be done so quickly.

                          Although sometimes BS can also be errors in understanding.

                          Peace Bro 🙏 😀

          • Dsiee on 11/02/2023 - 07:42

            @Harold Halfprice: Battery life is much longer with Lifepo4 batteries which a lot of mass market EVs use. As in 5000 cycles going 0-100% to degrade to 80% of original spec capacity. 5000 at even a stupid low 200km per cycle gets you 1 000 000km. That is a long time, longer than the lifespan of internal combustion engines.

            Routine services will become standardised to a longer period thus dropping costs. Some models already have 2 year services where it is just basically check things, no scheduled replacements.

            • RockyRaccoon on 11/02/2023 - 08:21
              +1

              @Dsiee: and @others in this section.

              Again, so much detail on such small points. I started the thread based on ability to supply the number of EV's required. Now its down to cost of ownership, which we know is soooo variable. Servicing a car that costs 30K vs 80K is dramatically different if you factor in opportunity costs like interest rates if they change.

              Likewise how you drive. Short runs affect both battery life - EV more charge cycles, and ICE more component wear with cold starts.

              Replacement Battery Costs vs Replacement engines, vs repacked batteries vs reconditioned engines. After 10 years a new engine in a Camry might not be worth it, likewise a new battery in a Tesla. And with new battery technology which might not suit, why would you bother.

              This may stop someone buying either car, but its all pointless if the production cant be ramped it to supply.

        • ttt888 on 11/02/2023 - 13:38

          Yup if and when I buy EV has nothing to do with environment.

          There are many reasons I would choose and EV over ICE.

      • juki on 10/02/2023 - 22:10
        -1

        of course all the marketing around EVs will have you believe the neighbour and their dog all drive one… and whats the name of that law that now we are more aware of them we will notice them more.

        10.5 years man my car is 1.5x that, fourth categorie those who dont want to spend money and dont buy anything until it dies

    • iDroid on 07/02/2023 - 21:23

      batteries getting cheaper, or petrol getting more expensive.

      If that's what it takes, then that's it may happen sooner than we expect!

      • Logical on 10/02/2023 - 16:58

        Petrol has been stable around $1.69 here for some time…. more EV's on the road mean less demand for petrol so cheaper petrol!

    • BreezyPalms on 09/02/2023 - 22:14
      +1

      Another could be tax incentives on EV - for example FBT is now waived on EV cars purchased under novated lease

    • CocaKoala on 10/02/2023 - 10:13

      with no local manufacturing

      May be we could invite an international manufacturer to operate in our country to create a local manufacturing operation. Perhaps we consider a big player like may be general motors. That might also help our economy and our brilliant politicians will ensure we won't be taken advantage of.

      Wait…

      • macrocephalic on 10/02/2023 - 13:56
        +1

        I bet if we really tried then we could get GM, Ford, Toyota, and Mitsubishi to all build cars in Australia - if we just gave them some tax concessions or something..

        • CocaKoala on 10/02/2023 - 14:40

          That sounds like a very good idea.

      • Dsiee on 11/02/2023 - 07:44

        Yeah work so well at burning money last time, let's go again. We don't need to use that money to improve the health system or anything else anyway.

  • Leadfoot6 on 07/02/2023 - 20:46
    +1

    Not everyone wants an electric car.

    Not everyone believes that the planet will die due to "global warming".

    Even if they did, not everyone will be able to afford it.

    Result = Many years yet.

    "Is "soon" realistic or are we just dreaming.(sic)?"

    In the wise words of Darryl Kerrigan:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dik_wnOE4dk

    • Mechz on 08/02/2023 - 13:36
      +27

      The planet won't die but all the things that feed you will.

      • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 14:20
        -5

        Crop growth at record highs.

        • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 15:30
          +11

          Likely unsustainable crop growth. You can grow heaps of food on your paddock for a few years in a row, then productivity drops off massively unless you add fertilisers or do crop rotations.

          Much of our food production is based on what provides the most profit, not what is best for the land.

          • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 16:54
            +2

            @Euphemistic: Can’t win. Lol

            I mean; if the opposite was happening I’m sure it would be a huge talking point / source used to prove global warming is real and the planet is dying

            • us3rnam3tak3n on 09/02/2023 - 20:35
              +4

              @Danstar: Hard to believe there are still global warming deniers but here's a pretty good account of the worsening state of the natural world.

              https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53916142-a-life-on-our-p…

              • Danstar on 10/02/2023 - 12:06
                -5

                @us3rnam3tak3n: Hard to believe humans think we’re so big we can cause so much damage to a whole planet that’s been around for billions of years and to think we’ve can cause so much harm with out 100 years of data.

                • us3rnam3tak3n on 10/02/2023 - 23:15
                  +2

                  @Danstar: @Danstar @mlburnian I honestly envy the level of delusion it takes to think that everything is fine.

                  • Danstar on 11/02/2023 - 10:40

                    @us3rnam3tak3n: You just want something to worry about that you know you can’t do anything to change to use as an excuse for dealing with actual issues in your life you can change and/or you just want to virtue signal.

                    • us3rnam3tak3n on 11/02/2023 - 16:43

                      @Danstar: I don't think I've ever seen someone project so hard or so specifically. Bravo, and get help I guess.

                      • Danstar on 12/02/2023 - 09:47
                        +1

                        @us3rnam3tak3n: Why would my comment ascertain to someone needing help? Is that the best you can reply with? Seems most of you resort to saying that when you got nothing

                        • Danstar on 12/02/2023 - 17:51
                          +1

                          @us3rnam3tak3n: Nope. I stand by my
                          Comment; you’re the one projecting about an issue you probably do nothing to about yourself other than think you look good on the internet / wanting your 15 minutes

                          • us3rnam3tak3n on 13/02/2023 - 19:49
                            -1

                            @Danstar: And I stand by mine. It must be genuinely nice to believe that humans aren't responsible for the sixth mass extinction and that the loss of diversity isn't going to impact our wellbeing over the next couple of decades. As they say, ignorance is bliss. As for "do nothing to about yourself" I just try to minimise my impact. I'm no slacktivist or hero.

                            If I wanted 15 minutes of fame I'd probably use my real name instead of a pseudonym and I guess I'd alter it slightly to suggest that I'm somehow better than others ;)

                            • Danstar on 14/02/2023 - 06:22

                              @us3rnam3tak3n: Real name or not; don't deny you crave the attention.

                              You do realise that the same things were said decades ago; almost becoming closer to a century ago that climate change, global warming, ice age, etc. etc. is going to end us all?

                              Too bad some of those people who believed it like you do aren't still around to witness it….maybe you'll still be around to see Earth crumble…in a few decades of course.

                              • us3rnam3tak3n on 14/02/2023 - 13:32

                                @Danstar: Well it's happening already (more extreme weather, intense fires, loss of species etc). I just meant that despite being well off in a highly developed nation it's only a matter of time before that's not enough to escape the impacts.

            • mlburnian on 09/02/2023 - 21:50

              @Danstar: @Danstar spot on! Too much rain…global warming! Drought…global warming, Too cold…global warming….Too hot…global warming…barrier reef dying….find out its as healthy as ever

          • Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 21:22

            @Euphemistic: I don't believe that you have heard of Thomas Malthus.

            If you had had a real education, you should have been hearing about him in year 8 geography like I did.

            Thomas Robert Malthus FRS (/ˈmælθəs/; 13/14 February 1766 – 29 December 1834)[1] was an English cleric, scholar and influential economist in the fields of political economy and demography.[2]

            In his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus observed that an increase in a nation's food production improved the well-being of the population, but the improvement was temporary because it led to population growth, which in turn restored the original per capita production level. In other words, humans had a propensity to utilize abundance for population growth rather than for maintaining a high standard of living, a view that has become known as the "Malthusian trap" or the "Malthusian spectre". Populations had a tendency to grow until the lower class suffered hardship, want and greater susceptibility to war famine and disease, a pessimistic view that is sometimes referred to as a Malthusian catastrophe. Malthus wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-century Europe that saw society as improving and in principle as perfectible.[3]

            Malthus saw population growth as inevitable whenever conditions improved, thereby precluding real progress towards a utopian society: "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man."[4] As an Anglican cleric, he saw this situation as divinely imposed to teach virtuous behavior.[5] Malthus wrote that "the increase of population is necessarily limited by subsistence," "population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase," and "the superior power of population repress by moral restraint, vice, and misery."[6]

            Malthus criticized the Poor Laws for leading to inflation rather than improving the well-being of the poor.[7] He supported taxes on grain imports (the Corn Laws).[8] His views became influential and controversial across economic, political, social and scientific thought. Pioneers of evolutionary biology read him, notably Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace.[9][10] Malthus's failure to predict the Industrial Revolution was a frequent criticism of his theories.[11]

            Malthus laid the "…theoretical foundation of the conventional wisdom that has dominated the debate, both scientifically and ideologically,[12] on global hunger and famines for almost two centuries."[13] He remains a much-debated writer.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus

            and:

            The Bottom Line
            Thomas Malthus was an 18th-century British economist best known for his theory that human populations tend to outgrow their agricultural production capabilities, resulting in famines and other disasters.

            These theories have largely been discredited by innovations in agricultural technology, but they remain influential in the field of evolutionary biology.

            https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/thomas-malthus.asp#:~:t….

            His predictions have not come true.

            World food production expands year after year.

            Reasons for that are the efficiencies introduced by fossil fueled agricultural machinery and the transport necessary to get this ever increasing produce to market.

            • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 12:41
              +2

              @Leadfoot6: Continual growth is not a good thing. At some point the resources will fail. MAny animal populations follow a boom and bust cycle. Humans are still booming. Sure, technology has helped us increase efficiency in food production, but it’s also increased waste and waste products. We’ve bent the rules of nature with technology and it’s coming back to bite us.

              • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 19:40
                +2

                @Euphemistic: The sky is falling! The sky is falling!.
                What Malthus tried to point out centuries ago, and adherents since, has not come to pass.
                Of course, having square miles of solar panels encroaching on otherwise useful farm land is not helping.
                Greenies of all persuasions hate Nuclear.
                If modern design nuclear fission reactors were encouraged and allowed to roll out in Australian remote arid regions adjacent to sources of sea water and operated as desalination plants, which they could do very cheaply, Australia could feed the world, labour supply issues aside.
                Australia is abundant in Uranium oxide.
                No supply issues.
                It's not rocket science.
                And let's see who is actually more resistant to change.
                Would it be people like me, or the Greenies?
                I already know the answer to that one.

                • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 20:27
                  +1

                  @Leadfoot6: It does seem that you are very resistant to the change to EVs, you make a good point.

                  • Leadfoot6 on 10/02/2023 - 21:41

                    @Euphemistic: Will you buy me one?

                    Then I would consider it.

                    Do you think you will become generous any time soon?

                    I don't.

              • Logical on 13/02/2023 - 14:43

                @Euphemistic: isn't that why covid was brought in?

        • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:22
          +2

          And just like that, famine was vanquished, oh wait no.

      • Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 15:21

        @Mechz
        Only in the dreams of Saint Greta.
        Otherwise, no.

      • spacemannn on 09/02/2023 - 23:24
        +2

        The planet will experience many changes and continue existing for millions, if not, billions of years. Humanity is at risk. If a random asteroid doesn't kill us, something else will. To that I say, Gg, wp.

    • Taro Milk Tea on 09/02/2023 - 10:46
      +1

      Not everyone believes that the planet will die due to "global warming".

      it will die because of meteor - we need white materia.

    • Nugs on 08/02/2023 - 08:46
      +1

      second video, 30 seconds in "ass phalt"
      .

      • WhyAmICommenting on 09/02/2023 - 14:58
        +1

        “Heh heh. Heh heh. You said ass phalt”

    • smithydll on 09/02/2023 - 20:26
      +1

      I'm glad you linked Not Just Bikes. Australian cities are simultaneously being pulled in both directions with record spending on transit including transit orientated development and record urban sprawl. Would be nice to see affordable family sized apartments being built, and not just overpriced 1 and 2 bedroom shoeboxes.

  • Euphemistic on 07/02/2023 - 20:59
    +4

    They’ll become the majority in the city a lot quicker than in the country. They’re coming, it’s just a matter of time. What length of time? I’m reasonably confident that the 2035 cut off for ICE cars won’t be an issue.

    Would I have an EV today? Yes, but they don’t make them in ute for yet or they’re a bit pricey as an extra vehicle for just commuting.

    average age of vehicles in Aus is 10years. I don’t think that’s gonna change much. Perhaps the average will drop a little as people recognise that EVs are superior in most ways (yes, except range) but it’ll take a drop in prices to match ICE at the budget end of the market.

  • Brian McGee on 07/02/2023 - 21:01
    +2

    Thinking you’re saving the world by making it purchasing and EV is just plain stupid.
    Making laws that say within 10 years the only new car will be EV is pure lunacy.

    • AustriaBargain on 07/02/2023 - 21:13
      +8

      More EVs means we don't have to suckle Asia's oily teat just to commute.

      • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:10
        +8

        No; We'll just have to take it up the rear for all the spare parts, chargers, batteries, etc. etc. we will rely from them

        • Brian McGee on 08/02/2023 - 07:46
          +5

          Don't forget the higher and higher prices of gas to generate electricity in some parts of Aus. And that good ole' $10k bill at 10 years for a replacement battery.

          • nizzkid on 08/02/2023 - 12:24
            +3

            @Brian McGee: Replacement batteries are closer to $20-$30k

            • Brian McGee on 08/02/2023 - 12:57

              @nizzkid: So much for saving fuel and the planets resources.

              • JumperC on 08/02/2023 - 13:08
                +9

                @Brian McGee: Improvements in battery management in the last 10 years means most people can expect their batteries to last 20+ years at over 90% original capacity. There are vehicles now reporting over 650,000km on the clock with still 90% of original battery remaining.

                It’s basically a non issue, unless you’re running a taxi 24x7 the thing will probably rust before you have to replace the battery. After which it will probably have a second life as a home battery where energy density isn’t as important.

              • Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 13:11
                +3

                @Brian McGee:

                expect to pay between $12-20K for a replacement battery under 50kWh in vehicles such as the MG ZS EV, BMW i3, Nissan LEAF and MINI Cooper SE, and upwards of $50,000 in long-range prestige vehicles like the Porsche Taycan, Tesla Model S, Mercedes-Benz EQC and Audi e-tron.

                Source

            • Caped Baldy on 09/02/2023 - 14:30

              @nizzkid: This might be cheaper than buying a 10 year old BMW

          • RockyRaccoon on 08/02/2023 - 13:23
            +1

            @Brian McGee: Actually you make another valid point, which affects AustriaBargain's trickle down theory.

            From car sales article that Danstar provides the link to.

            In all likelihood, you won’t need to replace the battery in an EV for at least a decade.
            And given the latest census results from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicate the average age of vehicles across the country is 10.6 years, it’s unlikely you will ever need to replace your EV battery.
            But in the event that you do, it’s not going to be a cheap exercise. The battery pack in an EV is the most expensive component in the vehicle, and the larger the battery the more it will cost to replace

            So After 10 years or so who would buy an EV that needs a new battery considering the cost. Like todays ICE car, if the engine dies on a 10 year old, replacing it with a new engine isnt worthwhile (Classic cars excepted). With an ICE car at best you buy a reconditioned or secondhand engine.

            At upwards from 10K you wouldnt bother. Which again leads to a reduced ablility to convert the nations fleet to EV's given less will extend the average fleet life.

            Another factor is how much will at used prestige vehicle of say 100K be worth after 9 years considering you might have to pay 20K plus for a new battery. Wouldnt it be more economical and prestigious to just buy new

            • Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 15:34
              +3

              @RockyRaccoon: People will buy cars with old batteries and use them for short commutes. If the battery has degraded to 80% capacity after 10 years (it’s likely much less degradation) you’ll still be able to go a week of urban commuting on a charge.

              Then, used car batteries will make good household storage as well. The lower current draw will have them last a lot longer powering a house than a car.

              • RockyRaccoon on 08/02/2023 - 15:49

                @Euphemistic: Maybe you know so much more.

                I was just going on published data about life of battery, and given we dont have any real world 10 year data as yet, its hard to judge do you have better data?

                As for short commutes, I think you are being idealistic. Car purchases arent always about efficiency. If it was nobody would buy all those expensive brands.

                What you wish will happen doesnt mean it will.

                • filmer on 09/02/2023 - 17:32
                  +2

                  @RockyRaccoon: The life of a battery isn't based on it dying at 10 years. It's based on having x % of capacity after 10 years. At this point, the car will be more than acceptable for the second car one person in the house uses purely for work.

                • DangerNoodle on 11/02/2023 - 06:53

                  @RockyRaccoon: Battery lifespan is usually rated in charge cycles rather years. So someone who lives in the city and has shorter commutes will most likely get many more cycles out of a battery than someone from the country.

                  The aspects that I'm more curious about is how is the charging infrastructure going to improve? There are already queues at some of the charging stations, plus time taken to charge batteries, which means road trips take much longer compared to rapidly filling up with fuel. Factor in that queues for charging stations means there needs to be more space in carparks for queuing up.

                  I'm also more curious about if the pricing of electric vehicles will drop as they are quite pricey. Yes there are Nissan Leafs on the used market at low prices but Nissan Leafs are known for having batteries with poorer lifespans. At the moment, considering an EV is outside of the price range of many people, especially given the recent inflation of rental prices and interest rates and other cost of living expenses growing faster than some CPI pay rises. I got a 2k payrise last year, my rent went up 4k, utilities went up 1.5k projected for the year, food costs have gone up as well, etc.

                  At the moment I'm leaning more towards plug in hybrids. I can charge it daily and run off the electric motor for my daily work commute and there is a petrol engine and tank for those occasional longer trips.

              • trongy on 10/02/2023 - 08:44

                @Euphemistic: The idea of using an old car battery to power a home is not proven at scale. Can the batteries be safely and cost effectively converted for household usage?

                If there an unacceptable number of house fires from such conversions, using a non-approved home battery might make a home uninsurable.

                • iDroid on 10/02/2023 - 09:03
                  +1

                  @trongy: There is no "conversion" required - they have an included battery management system. It's a battery.

                  Sure there will be some interfacing to do - but let's not pretend that's difficult.

                • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 10:01

                  @trongy: No, it’s not proven at scale but largely because there is only a tiny supply for used batteries at this point. The batteries sell well on the second hand market for EV conversions as well.

                  Time will tell what happens to the majority of batteries. I suspect that when a car dies, the battery pack will be separated into a few modules (most are built from several modules) good ones will be reused somewhere, duds will be recycled.

        • smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:23

          Australians are used to that by now for literally everything else we consume.

    • Shoocat on 07/02/2023 - 21:16
      +9

      It won't be laws that cause the shift for Australia. Many car manufacturers have said they will stop producing ICE cars. Given we have no domestic car production capability, we will have to buy what is being made.

      • Brian McGee on 08/02/2023 - 07:44

        That is the unfortunate thing.

        Maybe we will all be driving diesel hybrid Fusos and Hinos instead?

      • RockyRaccoon on 08/02/2023 - 13:29

        Really? many car manufacturers will continue to make ICE cars until they can source enough batteries to switch completely. Small niche manufacturers can play that niche game, but the big players cant do this nor have they committed to this.

        If you have 50 car companies that make 1% of the worlds cars, vs 4 who make 70% it means nothing. Sure "many" sounds great. what does it mean in real terms. Its how many of the biggest have "fully" committed and how soon.

        • trongy on 10/02/2023 - 09:14

          Yes, I expect that ICE vehicles will continue to be imported as long as there is a market for them. I also expect the number of models imported to decline as total ICE sales decline. Global petroleum production will remain high because developing nations will not move to EVs as fast as wealthy nations.

          As EVs approach 50% of the total vehicle fleet, I expect that the fuel distribution industry will contract and restructure. A lot of petrol stations will close, or stop selling petrol. As sales volume declines, the economy of scale declines and prices will rise because of that. At some point ICE vehicle ownership will become less convenient than an EV and cost effective for the "average" car driver, but I expect ICE enthusiasts, off road 4WDers, people who like long road trips and camping trips or towing trailers and caravans will keep on owning an ICE vehicle for a lot longer. They may start having to use an app to find the increasingly rare petrol stations on their journeys. If they are in a two car family, the other car may be an EV.

          How long will this take? I have no idea. Even people in the related industries are not in agreement. Companies that are accurate in their predictions may remain profitable. The rest will probably go bankrupt or fade away. I've seen other such technological transitions in my lifetime. Do you remember land line telephones? Film cameras? Printed newspapers? They are all still around in some form, but they have all faded from significance.

        • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 10:06

          Manufacturers will make whatever gives them profit. Right now it could be said that they keep selling the cheap ICE technology now, knowing that EVs are inevitable and everyone is going to want to upgrade sooner than the usual ICE model cycle. That is, buyers purchase ICE now and they’d normally upgrade in 5 years but they decide to upgrade to EV at 3 years because of fuel prices or similar. Car makers win because Luddites can’t see the forest for the trees.

          If Australians could see the writing on the wall we’d be stopping buying ICE cars and the manufacturers would be pumping EVs into our market. They don’t, because we’ve been let down by our fossil fuel loving governments.

        • dealsucker on 10/02/2023 - 15:24

          Except most high profile mature markets have hard dates for banning ICE cars. If you are an ICE car manufacturer you would stop R&D atleast 5 years earlier. I dont think manufacturers really have a choice. Currently, the only negative I see for EV's is not enough fast charging stations if you are not a Tesla and longish time to charge but the later is not a huge problem given the range and you would want to stop anyway. And also, how many of us are doing really long distance driving everyday?

          • trongy on 10/02/2023 - 19:24

            @dealsucker: I agree about the R&D. I would not be surprised if it's already slowing down. That does not prevent the same model of car being built over and over again with different colour schemes and minor changes to accessories. I remember when the local Nissan plant closed down,they shipped it to New Zealand and operated it there. Later it was sold off to Proton and shipped to Malaysia.

            The old tech will live on for a while longer and unless it's banned in Australia, someone will import it for the few who want it. I expect that many of the loud ICE enthusiasts will have changed their tune by then.

            • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 20:30

              @trongy: It’s pretty unlikely anyone is going to bother developing a new engine block or similar. They’ll just tweak here or there to slightly improve economy or power to make it ‘new’ and then wrap it with a new bumper and some flash marketing.

    • p1 ama on 10/02/2023 - 13:29
      +1

      Thinking you’re saving the world by making it purchasing and EV is just plain stupid.

      What percentage of people think they are saving the world by purchasing an EV? I don't get this trope. I know plenty of people who own an EV, most bought one because they like the technology, think it will be more future-proof, or prefer the strengths of an EV (e.g. much better low end torque)…etc.

      • Brian McGee on 10/02/2023 - 15:32

        Maybe the ones that spout how they are charging from solar panels so don't use fossil fuels?

        Except for in the mining and processing of the steel bodies, copper wiring and motor windings, plastic headlights and bumpers. And lets not forget that 70% of Australias power grid is coal or gas fired (if using a shared charger)

        • p1 ama on 10/02/2023 - 15:41
          +4

          Maybe the ones that spout how they are charging from solar panels so don't use fossil fuels?

          So using solar panels is now "believing you are saving the world"? When I put solar panels in, I thought it was good financial sense, and is environmentally responsible (e.g. in the same way that not littering in a national park is environmentally responsible).

          I have never, in my entire life, met anyone who puts in solar panels or buys an EV and thinks that they are "saving the world" like some superhero in a cape.

          I don't get what your point is, are you trying to say that just because electric vehicles use steel, copper and plastic that somehow this is an "own"?

      • Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 15:36

        There’d be plenty more buying EVs right now due to fuel price volatility if only Aussies could actually get some more of the massive range of models available elsewhere in the world.

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