How Realistic Will It Be to Expect EV's to Conquer ICE Cars Soon

RockyRaccoon on 07/02/2023 - 20:20
Last edited 07/02/2023 - 20:21

Friends keep telling me that EV's will take over in the next few years. The issue is how long is a few.

I got to thinking and checked on some data. Yep you know from Google, which we all know is 100% accurate. 🤣

That said there is some interesting figures out there. And I roughly rounded the numbers to keep it simple.

Last year world wide around 80 Million cars produced (down on years before). Estimated BEV's produced in 2022 10 Million (Hybrids not in these figures)

Sales of EV's have at least doubled in past year up and doubled the year before that.

Estimated, there are world wide, 1.4 Billion Cars on the road

In Australia the average age of the national car fleet is 10.1 years

Aust June 21 20 Million cars registered 23000 were EV’s

Ignoring general logistics of this occuring, if we say Australia can take even 10% of worlds current production thats 20 years to change over without ever replacing an older EV

Let alone all the other places with populations far greater than ours like our near neighbours, which have a much greater fleet lifespan average.

Is "soon" realistic or are we just dreaming.

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

- - - - pegaxs on 09/02/2023 - 14:04
        
        @boomramada: Nah, just looking for more examples of bullshit to debunk on my “I Love Elon Musk” blog page. I get 100% of my daily requirements from this forum. It truely is the gift that keeps on giving…
        
        RockyRaccoon on 09/02/2023 - 14:18
        
        +1
        
        @pegaxs: Wow 90% of what he said is ignorant etc.
        
        Could you point out which 90% that would be and how you came up with that exact %.
        
        Maybe at least indicate which points are included in that assessment.
        
        While I would agree not all would be as severe an impact as boomramada may indicate, to dismiss almost totally also doesnt seem logical.
        
        pegaxs on 10/02/2023 - 13:38
        
        @RockyRaccoon:
        
        Could you point out which 90% that would be
        
        Note sure if troll post, but sure, here goes…
        
        EV cost at least 20k more than comparable ICE
        
        Wrong. My EV cost almost the same amount as an equivalently specced Hyundai Kona/Tucson. People compare a Tesla Model 3 to an i30 and say "EV's are too expensive!!!1!1!!!1" and they are not comparing them to "comparable" vehicles. A Model Y AWD Performance is NOT the same as a Rav 4 Hybrid Cruiser as far as "comparable" goes.
        
        Not everyone got spare $40k in their bank account for the replacement.
        
        For the replacement what? Battery I am guessing… Batteries are repairable and often only a few dead cells in a block need to be replaced. And a replacement battery is no worse than what most ICE replacements cost. (Source: got to do a quote a few weeks ago to replace a LandCruiser engine… $48,000+ for new engine from Toyota, or $28,000+ for a used second hand enine…. SOOOO much cheaper than an EV battery, right?)
        
        If you mean for the car as a whole… let's see what you can get for the roughly $50,000 drive away price for a BYD Atto 3 or MG ZS EV… And if you dont need to trade up because your ICE shitbox is still running fine, then don't trade up. No point.
        
        Good thing about ICE, people can patch it up and keep use it
        
        Most of the parts of an EV are simpler than ICE vehicles or at a minimum, the same. Simple electric motor vs. complicated petrol/diesel engine. Automatic/manual/CV transmission versus… no gearbox. Sloshy fuel in a fuel tank with hoses, pumps, filters, wires, pressure regulators, vs a battery and some cables. Tail shafts, exhausts and diffs vs… none of these. So… Much less complicated systems on an EV and much less parts to go wrong…
        
        Currently people drive EV interstate like their are on a expedition
        
        On an expedition? What? You drive it the same as any other vehicle. You take regular stops, top up only what you need and keep driving. Best thing with an EV is I can plug it in and leave it to charge, go get some lunch, coffee, have a walk around, visit a shop. ICE you have to stand there and watch it and hold the handle the whole time. I did a comparison post recently where the trip time from Parramatta, Western Sydney to Melbourne CBD would be a shade over 1 hour more in my EV IF you had an ICE vehicle with 0 stops for food, piss or fuel…
        
        but realistically when everyone on EVs, it be a nightmare
        
        By that time, there will be way more chargers available. The charging infrastructure is growing at a huge rate. There also doesn't need to be as many charging stations as ICE fuel stations because, you know, hole in the wall of your house, power comes out…. Most people will have access to charging at home… cant fuel my ICE car while I sleep at $0.19 a kWh.
        
        imagine all the charging needs for M5 3hr traffic on Sundays.
        
        What charging?? Modern EV's do more than 80km. It's not like everyone will require charging at exactly 12:01pm on Sunday…
        
        Based on US market, EV deprecate just as bad as Euro car.
        
        No sauce? Im calling bullshit, made up statistics. We are also not the US market. At the moment, due to lack of supply and MASSIVE demand for EV's in Australia, resale is still very high. AU =/= USA.
        
        so when battery need replacing there be more junk to recycle.
        
        And just how much of that fuel any ICE car has burned in the last 200,000km can you recycle? Oh, right… none of it. You burnt it all. Almost every part of an EV can be recycled or repurposed. Often the batteries are no good for cars, but are perfect for home or office battery storage solutions.
        
        Realistically, if you got a EV, you need a ICE car as backup
        
        I have an EV car and an EV motorcycle… why do I require a backup, a backup for what? My car is at 100% charge every morning before I leave for work.
        
        unless you don't drive much
        
        My car will do over 400km on a charge. Just how much range does the average user need in an average day? I can drive for work from Newcastle to Tamworth, top up at the DC charger for about 15~20 mins while I am doing other things (ie: lunch) and drive home.
        
        If you really worry about the environment
        
        Owning an EV isn't always about "the environment". I dont give a shit about the environment generally, I just (fropanity) hate being at the mercy of fuel cartels.
        
        Finally, all we doing is feeding the Chinese economy
        
        But happy to give money to the Saudi and Russian war machines when you buy their crude oil to make your fuel??
        
        just by city driving, just catch the bus.
        
        This I kind of agree with. If for environmental reasons, just use public transport.
        
        Wow 90% of what he said is ignorant etc.
        
        So, yeah, about 90% is bullshit. Maybe even more than 90%… Out of all the shit boomramda said, only one thing actually makes sense (take the bus). The rest of it is anti-EV misinformational garbage from someone scared of change.
        
        p1 ama on 10/02/2023 - 15:49
        
        +1
        
        @pegaxs:
        
        The rest of it is anti-EV misinformational garbage from someone scared of change.
        
        It's not even change.
        
        It's just this primate instinct to always have an opinion on something, even when you know jack shit about it or it doesn't affect you at all.
        
        I'm not even pro-EV or pro-ICE, I'm just pro drive whatever the (profanity) you want to drive, but at least I respect people who can acknowledge the truth. EVs are generally superior to ICE vehicles, just like being connected to the grid is far better than running your own diesel generator out your backyard.
        
        Doesn't mean that you can't choose to drive an ICE vehicle, just like it doesn't mean you can't choose to generate your own power with a diesel generator out back.
        
        pegaxs on 10/02/2023 - 16:30
        
        @p1 ama: "Appeal to tradition" I think it is… This is the way I have always been, therefore this is how I will continue and nothing else is going to change my mind… My father drove ICE. My father's father drove ICE, my father's father's father drove ICE, therefore, I drive ICE.
        
        p1 ama on 11/02/2023 - 00:08
        
        +1
        
        @pegaxs:
        
        Appeal to tradition" I think it is… This is the way I have always been, therefore this is how I will continue and nothing else is going to change my mind… My father drove ICE. My father's father drove ICE, my father's father's father drove ICE, therefore, I drive ICE.
        
        All the bickering is just sad, I bet you 90%+ of people wouldn't give two hoots about what's under the hood of their car.
        
        Fun story - my grandpa had a few issues with his old Corolla. Me and a couple of his other grandkids pooled together $20k to get him an old Nissan Leaf. He's 80+ and it's just a runabout car for him to go see his mates and down to the local shops.
        
        We just told him the fuel comes from the box on the side of his house, no need to go down to the petrol station anymore. He's been going on about how futuristic it is to be able to refuel at home and how quiet the car is to drive.
        
        Doesn't know what ICE or EV is, doesn't give two hoots, just out there enjoying his car. Wish some people could take a page out of that you know.
        
        Bobby Hill on 11/02/2023 - 05:15
        
        @p1 ama:
        
        Wish some people could take a page out of that you know.
        
        About to purchase a Y. And guess what? It goes both ways.
        
        Hackney on 10/02/2023 - 16:44
        
        +1
        
        @pegaxs: Yes people bang on about I will never purchase a Chinese manufactured vehicle ‘because’ all that money goes back into the hands of the CCP.What a load of rot.A lot of Chinese manufacturers are not even aligned with the CCP,& as you correctly stated they purchase Middle east sourced crude for our petrol & think nothing of it,which funds a lot of terrorist organisations etc…
        
        Leadfoot6 on 11/02/2023 - 05:49
        
        +1
        
        @Hackney: There is no terrorist organisation that I know of that is intent on invading a major ally to the USA like Taiwan and start WW3 in the Pacific.
coffeeinmyveins on 07/02/2023 - 23:04

+1

Friends keep telling me that EV's will take over in the next few years. The issue is how long is a few.

Do your friends also keep telling you that FSD is "coming soon" to their Tesla? lol
SF3 on 07/02/2023 - 23:13

+1

Friends keep telling me that EV's will take over in the next few years.

Do they have an EV only vehicle? if they do, they are just flexing and need to tell everyone, if not - lol.
Leadfoot6 on 07/02/2023 - 23:53

The continual increase in electricity prices, even as the "miracle" renewables increase market share will be a "stick in the wheel", literally, for electric vehicles.

Adding to this will be the queues faced by potential EV owners when the grid will not be able to keep up.

I don't particularly want Matt Keen, Chris Bowen, Greta Thunberg & co sticking their hand in my pocket to fund subsidies to enforce quicker rollouts of the charging grid.

Unless, of course, we go full on nuclear, where the only "melt down" will be "greenies" wanting to commit suicide as a result.
- AustriaBargain on 08/02/2023 - 00:46
  
  The charging stations would fund themselves. Every major supermarket chain will have bays of fast chargers to attract customers.
  - Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 02:28
    
    +1
    
    Just imagine the queues before/after work.
    The supermarket car parks will never be big enough, unless the supermarket buys more land.
    Up goes the price of groceries to cover the extra land purchased/interest/asphalt/kerbing/drainage/rates/land tax.
    But it's all good.
    The cavalry in the form of Matt Keen and Chris Bowen riding to the rescue will fix it.
    - AustriaBargain on 08/02/2023 - 02:41
      
      +2
      
      Why would there need to be a queue. Some of the fastest chargers can get you to 80% in 20 minutes. All they need to do is limit the charging to 80% or 20 minutes, whichever comes first. 20 minute is probably how long Woolies want you in the store. Make it so you need a Woolies receipt to charge for free, or else it costs $15. Put a fast charger on every car park, if every car sold needs to be an EV then why not.
      - Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 02:43
        
        +1
        
        @AustriaBargain: Why?
        It is pretty basic.
        It is called "number of cars".
        Simples.
        P.S. Where I live, there are not too many Woolies open 24 hours.
        In fact, the trend has been to REDUCE opening hours to cut down total wages bill.
        
        Same # of cars in less time = Q.
        
        Not that I go to Woolies.
        I avoid them like the plague.
        I hate their "green this, green that" advertising.
        I don't believe that the earth is going to end anytime soon due to global warming, so I shop elsewhere.
        IGA has not gone down that road yet, so they get my business.
        
        AustriaBargain on 08/02/2023 - 03:32
        
        @Leadfoot6: Woolies could just charge $15 a charge up to 100% during closing hours or whatever.
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 04:57
        
        +2
        
        @AustriaBargain: So much for doing your shopping whilst you are doing your charging.
        So, come back to the carpark during opening hours for that = 2 trips.
        Not very convenient is it?
        The bottom line is that available recharging facilities will be swamped for many, many years to come once market penetration of EV's markedly increases.
        Make sure you have a book to read, or Kindle.
        
        Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 06:19
        
        +2
        
        @Leadfoot6: Some people just don’t like change. I guess you’re one of them. Just because you can’t wrap your head around how it’s going to work doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
        
        Realistically current EVs only NEED charging about twice as often as you get petrol for an ICE, but WHEN they put in a lot more chargers it’ll be more convenient to charge whenever you park somewhere for a period of time. Woolies won’t need to be open to use their chargers. People who live near said Woolies are going to be able to use their chargers overnight etc.
        
        It’s just a change. Plenty of other countries with no off street parking are doing it and are way ahead of us.
        
        Stop thinking why it can’t be done because people are already doing it because they’ve got a positive attitude.
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 17:04
        
        +1
        
        @Euphemistic: I don't need to be instructed by you as to what sort of attitude I need to have.
        
        You are again operating outside of your level of authority.
        
        I pointed this out to you last time that we "clashed" over car insurance.
        
        I suggested then that you seemed to like "instructing" people as to what to do.
        
        I will again make that suggestion, only more strongly this time.
        
        When I want to change, I should be able to do so WHEN I WANT TO, not because you tell me to.
        
        Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 17:16
        
        +2
        
        @Leadfoot6: I’m not telling you to change. You don’t have to like change either, but stop putting up roadblocks for others and telling us the worlds going to end because ‘greenies’.
        
        It’s going to be OK. We’ll work out the infrastructure. EVs will become mainstream and it will work just fine. Some people will stick with ICE for whatever reason they want.
        
        Now I’m going to go back to check ‘our’ history on insurance to see where I’m so wrong there too.
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 17:32
        
        +1
        
        @Euphemistic: You must be using a different version to the English language than I am.
        
        Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 18:57
        
        @Leadfoot6: I try to use the version of English that looks forward and tries to accept changes that will be of benefit. Sometimes I won’t make the change, but I can recognise that change is inevitable and normally it’s as a result of people much smarter than me providing the opportunity.
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 20:24
        
        @Euphemistic: In other words, you use whatever methods helps to advance your agenda.
        
        Got it.
        
        The CCP would be proud of you.
      - Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:18
        
        +1
        
        @AustriaBargain: Unless shopping centres plan to make 100s of charging stations; imagine needing to charge you car, but all the chargers are taken…great that it takes 20 minutes to charge, but what if all the people who've left their cars on charge aren't going to be back for 2-3 hours while they shop? Imagine your the last person to rock up to charge you car for the day, you might be waiting for 3 days before a charger is free lol
        
        Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:36
        
        @Danstar: What if, what if, What if?
        
        What if chargers are available? What if there’s an accurate app that tells you where/when to charge and what chargers are working and available? What if you don’t actually have to charge every time you stop because manufacturers give us 400km range but we only really use 150km/week?
        
        Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:45
        
        @Euphemistic: Than that's all well and good. But if everyone decided to get an EV now and needed to fast charge their car at the shops. Most shopping centres from what I've seen only have half a dozen or so chargers. All I'm suggesting is that for what the Govt. is trying to do and make everyone go electric in the near future; the infrastructure to support the consumer needs to rapidly change also.
        
        Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:47
        
        @Danstar: Charge points and EV take up will match each other. No point installing a million charge points tomorrow if there’s 100,000 EVs. Charge point installation is increasing rapidly as EV sales take off. Supply and demand baby!
        
        Danstar on 08/02/2023 - 07:50
        
        @Euphemistic: Lets hope that happens. I can see more instances where people don't have a charger readily available when they want one vs. having one readily available as more EVs come onto our roads.
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 20:28
        
        +1
        
        @Euphemistic: Who is going to pay for the "what if's"?
        
        Matt Keen, Chris Bowen and Adam Bandt will make sure that everyone does, even if they do not believe in the great Green Lie.
        
        Saint Greta will be dancing in the streets if/when she comes to Australia.
        
        Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 20:40
        
        +1
        
        @Leadfoot6: I’m sure they’ll pay for it by cutting taxes to multinational corporations or something. Then when they make more profits they can trickle down to the rest of us.
        
        Dude, you been watching sky news?
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 20:49
        
        +1
        
        @Euphemistic: Yes, as every well informed person should do.
        
        smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:26
        
        +1
        
        @Leadfoot6: This isn't very good satire.
        
        trapper on 09/02/2023 - 15:52
        
        @Danstar:
        
        Unless shopping centres plan to make 100s of charging stations
        
        This is exactly what I think they will do, will eventually be every parking space. You find a park like normal, and now you can charge.
      - trapper on 09/02/2023 - 15:49
        
        @AustriaBargain: Yeah this is how I think it will pan out eventually.
        
        Most car parks will be electrified.
        
        So you just plug in at the supermarket and get an hour charge there, then another 30 min top up at bunnings etc
        
        Wife goes to the mall, six hour boost there… haha
- surg3on on 09/02/2023 - 23:25
  
  have you not seen the price of petrol rises in the last two years?
  - Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 23:35
    
    I believe home electricity bills have gone up at a higher rate in the past few years than have petrol prices.
    More power bill increases to follow shortly, thanks to Matt Keen and Chris Bowen.
    Worldwide oil prices will fall once the Republicans are able to overcome Sleepy Joe Biden's war on oil in the USA.
    - surg3on on 10/02/2023 - 09:46
      
      Oh my. You have really gone down the rabbit hole if you think the US republicans will help you.
- greatlamp on 10/02/2023 - 08:01
  
  Most people buying EVs own a house, and probably solar panels already. If electricity keeps getting more expensive home batteries will soon become economical too.
  
  Every one of them will buy an EV. People buy EVs because they are cheaper in the long run, I've never met a 'greenie' with a tesla.
  - Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 08:36
    
    That’s true. Tesla owners are often posers. The greenies own an imeiv or a leaf often purchased second hand.
saltypete on 08/02/2023 - 00:51

It will be quite a while I think, but the numbers are going up pretty fast. Bring it on - if EVs are a better transport solution the market will sort it out. Certainly my next town car will be an EV, and I’m happy to replace my large 4wd with a BEV when it will do the job I want.
More interesting will be which manufacturers survive over the next 5 years. There are a few around carrying very high debt. With high interest rates and sales numbers dropping they will be in a difficult position with Chinese competition gearing up. Toyota is carrying over $100 Billion usd debt, has no compelling BEV product and falling sales numbers. And there are others….
Farmers will swap to EVs a lot faster than many realise and this will change things outside of cities too. John Deere are releasing self drive electric tractors in a few years too, and farms have lots of places to put solar arrays.
Can’t see interstate transport switching from diesel for a while though.
- plmko on 08/02/2023 - 01:20
  
  +1
  
  Toyota is carrying over $100 Billion usd debt, has no compelling BEV product and falling sales numbers.
  
  Toyota was number one again for 2022 with 10.4million cars sold and in their earnings call expects 2023 to be a record year as they close in on backlogged orders.
  
  Toyota is cashflow positive on their finance activities based on their most recent cashflow statement. How is that possible despite growing debt you might ask, have a think.
  
  EV propaganda going around is floating this shift but only because the two biggest superpowers of China/US is attempting to rug pull the tradition automotive countries whilst they plug in stimulus into their industries.
  - saltypete on 08/02/2023 - 08:09
    
    Will be interesting to see how the next 5 years plays out……
- dcep on 08/02/2023 - 01:53
  
  https://newsroom.toyota.eu/toyota-motor-europes-market-share…
dcep on 08/02/2023 - 00:59

+1

Only when ev models priced the same as ice and charging stations available everywhere like other countries with mass ev
Trying2SaveABuck on 08/02/2023 - 07:25

+5

unless ICE is banned or EV cars are price compariable with ICE they are still a long way away

i fully support the EV take over - but not many people have 50k to drop on a little shit box, let alone 70-80k for a sedan

most people can't even afford to upgrade their current ICE car
- Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 07:45
  
  It’ll trickle down. The new car buyers (novated lease rollovers) will keep getting a new car every 3-5years. Then you’ll be able to buy a second hand one
  - boomramada on 09/02/2023 - 14:57
    
    There are around 15M cars in Australia, novated only applicable for handful of people.
    And what you going to do with 15M ICE vehicles? park them next to A380's somewhere in Alice Springs?
    
    If you talking about stats, about 1M new cars added to market in 2022, only 33k (3%) where electric. Realistically at least take 15 years to replace, if they were 100% electric.
    - Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 16:01
      
      Some people will always buy a new car every few years, lots of them are lease holders but plenty aren’t.
      
      Percentage of EV will increase when there are more available. Manufacturers are stating 2035 to stop producing them, but they’ll transition from 3% of sales now to almost all EV over time. It won’t happen instantly, ICE will rule for a good few years yet.
      
      As for what will we do with 15M cars? Exactly what we do now. We’ll replace them as they die or get crashed. Most will go to scrap and be recycled. While there are plenty of rusting hulks on farms and outback, we don’t currently park all used cars in Alice Springs, why would we start now.
      
      If anything, the transition away from ICE cars will likely decrease the average age of our fleet as more and more people discover the benefits of EV and fuel prices keep rising. Old ICE will inevitably lose extra value as running costs increase.
saltypete on 08/02/2023 - 08:34

Have to say I find it a little ironic when folk talk about costs etc, but perhaps forget that our ‘cheaper’ ICE buckets cost in fuel - and the cartel that supplies this has been price gouging us for years. Notably in recent times when we all had to pay a premium and their margins magically increased. And our fuel is delivered from a long way through an increasingly fragile transport network. Just in time…..
We all pay in terms of effects on air quality too, but this isn’t something we really think about.

I think BEVs are very different transport devices and our ICE thinking is going to change in time. We are not going to tolerate queuing for charging - eventually they are going to have to be everywhere and we plug in when suits us. There need to be range options to suit different needs rather than adapting to something we are uncomfortable with.
We’ve got a long way to go on this and it will take time, but we are definitely watching ICE passing. Vale ICE. 👍
Sinnerator on 08/02/2023 - 08:44

Not soon but will happen, here's a guess 20-50 years.
Going full scale EV is not a small change it is massive.
Narcissists like Elon tried to push the quick change to EV message to profit (and to stroke his ego), and it is amazing how many fools believed him.
ECE on 08/02/2023 - 10:05

It will be soon but not as what you thought.
-Au gov't
Jaduqimon on 08/02/2023 - 13:20

EV charging i think is the primary issue.

they should look to implement battery swaps at charging stations for a premium. Dont want to wait in line to charge or wait 20+mins? pay a premium for a 5min battery swap and off you go. not sure how realistic but maybe some solar roofs to get some power back while its parked outside.

A lot of people are also weary of the new tech and i guess don't want to be beta testers. People buying EV now are essentially paying more upfront to beta test the tech.
- dtc on 08/02/2023 - 15:18
  
  +1
  
  they should look to implement battery swaps at charging stations for a premium.
  
  A Tesla S battery weighs 540kg and thats before you get into the actually mechanics of swapping a battery. And that, at this stage, every battery pack is different
  
  Its possible it could be done if things were standardised and someone was willing to cough up the capital to buy a lot of batteries, but just making charging easier/faster/more convenient seems like the better solution
  - tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 21:23
    
    there's been at least two companies that tried battery swaps and it isnt viable for whatever reason
    
    it aint happening
- trapper on 09/02/2023 - 15:56
  
  +1
  
  EV charging i think is the primary issue.
  
  It will be rare to need a full charge though, only really on long holiday drives that this will be an issue.
  
  Day to day use will be a 30min charge here and hour there etc, enough to keep you topped up.
  - Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 16:05
    
    EV charging isn’t a major issue for current EV owners, perhaps with the exception of holiday makers preparing for a long drive home.
    
    Right now there’s probably just enough chargers for the EV fleet. As we get more, more chargers will appear. It’s what has happened in other parts of the world. Simple economics, you don’t go a build a charge network for 15million cars tomorrow, because there aren’t that many cars to charge. You build them as demand appears.
    - trapper on 09/02/2023 - 20:22
      
      Charging at night will be an issue though.
      
      I expect it will ultimately be restricted, unless we can construct some nuclear power plants in the next decade or so.
- imcold on 09/02/2023 - 22:22
  
  Battery swaps don't work because it ain't like changing a gas cylinder, where the gas inside the cylinder comparable to the gas cylinder
  
  We are talking about swapping your $5000 battery with $30 worth of electricity, with some else $5000 battery.
  
  You have no idea how the battery has been treated. Maybe they periodic drain the battery to flat-line.
  
  Plus a leaking gas tank might just have a bad smell. And a bad battery and you are going have a really bad day.
  - surg3on on 09/02/2023 - 23:27
    
    battery swap schemes work as a lease. you dont own the $5000 battery. Probably wouldnt work in Aus
IIGnomeII on 08/02/2023 - 13:23

+1

My view is there are a lot of check boxes that have to be marked off before EV's replace ICE vehicles.

1) The manufactures have to stop producing ICE and only a few have committed to that so far that I am aware of
2) ICE vehicles age and if the incentive to go to EV is there, the turnover happens naturally
3) Our power grids are upgraded to deal with the load requirements of everyone plugging in their vehicles, do we need to build more power stations / go nuclear / other generators?
4) Are our residential/commercial wires capable of running a constant current with multiple electric devices connected, will the Gov implement regulation for people to have a separate circuit for an EV and are people willing to pay for it
5) The time it takes to charge a vehicle, I refer to the images of the Tesla car cruises with the line of cars waiting for the person in front to complete their 30+ minute charge
6) Commercial vehicles (Utes, vans and trucks) in an EV configuration need to viable
7) Lastly the cost, with more competition and as more adoption happens the price comes down

I see more viability in a hybrid solution like Toyota has being the dominant platform in 10 years, I don't believe we will be setup as a country to have dominance of pure EVs. Chances are new tech like hydrogen may supersede the need for coal burning or gas.
tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 17:49

-1

the way i see things is that the Chinese will fill in the gaps

it'll get to this point where you have a mid sized EV suv that is $30k w/ 500km range and much lower runnng servicing costs

to me charging is a furphy if you can charge cheaply once a week at your local shopping centre for 30 mins to 80% charge for…. $10-15… mothafuc I pay $95 for 60 litres… there's no way electricity is coming close to that

i get the above vehicle does not suit all… the above scenario is good enough for many

the Chinese need to move away from their shitty ass names like "Jiangling Trumpchi Ding Dong"…. no one wants a car like that… hell I dont even want a BYD….
- Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 18:10
  
  -3
  
  I don't want ANY car made in China - regardless of what stupid name it is called.
  Well, not whilst they insist on threatening neighbouring countries with invasion or military strikes.
  Every time someone buys a Chinese car, that is another 25 to 30 odd thousand dollars going to a brutal dictatorship.
  (of course, not all of the total purchase price goes to the manufacturing country)
  The Chinese are determined to increase their influence on the Asia-Pacific region, "by hook or by crook".
  WAKE UP EVERYBODY.
  I can't compel any one else's behaviour.
  I just ask others to absorb the current geo-political realities, and adjust their behaviour accordingly.
  P.S. Yes, I buy Chinese products, but it is only where there is no alternative.
  A bottle of soy sauce is about it for $4.
  I will not buy Cinese made Ritz crackers, as the Arnots Jatz crackers are Australian made.
  I make it routine to closely examine EVERY product that I buy to send my money where it will have the best possible outcome for my country.
  "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country".
  If you don't know about that or who said it…..look it up.
  - tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 18:55
    
    principles are for those who can afford it
    
    to me i want the best value for my dollar… if the chinese can do that then i dont care about any issues on the periphery
    
    to me australia is cooked… i personally dont think anyone is 'clean'… i've been burnt by aussie cars and japanese cars and german cars
    
    i'm only interested in the welfare of myself and my immediate family… i cant even care too much about my family in canada or the US…
    
    so to me any rant about china is the rant of someone privileged enough to spend their money on a more expensive, worse product
    
    australia is super dooper PHUQQED as it is… by its own doing… and to blame china for that is… your choice
    
    all i want is to get from A to B as cheaply and as efficiently as possible
    - Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 20:32
      
      Obviously, you have not heard of the traditional Australian quality of "mateship", displayed by my father and the 700,000 or so other servicemen in World War 2.
      Him and his generation gave their lives to give you the opportunity to live in the best country in the world, about which you do not value.
      
      I pity you.
      - tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 20:49
        
        @Leadfoot6: yep this is true
        
        this country means nothing to me
        
        if you have enough money you can be happy anywhere
        
        to me i dont give a shit about events from 70-80yrs ago
        
        its a pity you dont seem to care about the 2,000 people suicided by robodebt or the decades of damage by various political parties and yet you want me to care about world war (profanity) 2
        
        (edited) plz
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 20:50
        
        -2
        
        @tonyjzx: You are a disgrace.
        
        You are living here in relative peace and prosperity on the shoulders of dead men.
        
        tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 20:53
        
        @Leadfoot6: yeha i dont give a shit mate
        
        ask yourself why you would insert your dumb boomer arguments in this thread
        
        look at the title of this thread
        
        no one cares mate
        
        you'll be dead, i'll be dead and really, all i care about is enjoying my time on this earth
        
        'dead men stink up the place, bury them and forget about them'
        
        given enough time no one will know you or me
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 21:05
        
        -1
        
        @tonyjzx: You are the embodiment of selfishness, and the worst example of the "me" generation.
        
        tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 21:07
        
        @Leadfoot6: why? i love pissing off boomers like yourself
        
        here's a newsflash buddy
        
        ive worked in 2ndary schools, tafe, uni etc. over the space of decades
        
        you're kidding yourself if you think the vast majority of white Australian kids give a flying shit about whatever issues you think is important
        
        and this is from someone who loves modern history and would love if kids learned more about this stuff
        
        but alas I live in the real world, not the 'glorious past' like you
        
        kids couldnt even tell you when WW2 started and ended… i knew then it was pointless trying to teach them this stuff
        
        THEY DONT CARE
        
        Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 21:11
        
        @tonyjzx: The instant that another war starts involving Australia, the cry will go out "save us", and "I hope the ADF will defund us".
        
        War will happen with China sooner rather than later.
        
        smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:31
        
        @Leadfoot6: Yes, and the politicians you support will send your sons to war without a moments hesitation, but their sons will conveniently be back here in comfort.
        
        Danstar on 09/02/2023 - 06:54
        
        +1
        
        @tonyjzx:
        
        this country means nothing to me
        
        Whether you were being facetious or not; you like (possibly love) Australia. You complain about "boomers"; but based on your comments you seem close to the boomer age demographic. Get off your high horse for a minute and appreciate that fact you live in a country where you have it pretty good if you even only make half an effort.
        
        tonyjzx on 09/02/2023 - 08:28
        
        @Danstar: no i think that's a dangerous attitude and really typical of "happy idiots"
        
        we should expect better treatment for everyone in this country, yes including people like leadfoot
        
        do you thnk the average person undergoing mortgage or rental stress is supposed to be reminisicing about gallipoli and anzac spirit?
        
        i literally have it so good i could be happy anywhere
        
        but that doesnt mean i can blind myself to people who have it hard
        
        this is the problem… you want me to be happy for myself and my lot because "i'm ok" and not be upset that people have it worse off than me
        
        its really selfish and really typical of people in this country but i expected as much from most here
        
        Danstar on 09/02/2023 - 08:45
        
        @tonyjzx:
        
        this is the problem… you want me to be happy for myself and my lot because "i'm ok" and not be upset that people have it worse off than me
        
        You sound like a prime example of the saying have your cake and eat it.
        
        You shoot your mouth off at people who demand respect while having a good life (which I'm not saying is right) to make yourself feel better about your privileges. All well and good to call others selfish; but what do you to for those who have it worse off than you? Other than splurge it out on the internet ?
        
        Do I feel sorry for those who have it worse than me? Of course I do; but the only person who can help you (majority of the time) is yourself. Never feel sorry for yourself for achieving success.
  - smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:28
    
    +1
    
    WAKE UP EVERYBODY.
    
    Yes, the words that lend credibility to every argument.
Leadfoot6 on 08/02/2023 - 18:38

-1

And for those addicted to technology(I'm not - I don't even have a smart 'phone), just look at what the latest Chinese cars can do.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/china-has-a-rapacious-a…

It's just another reason not to buy them.
- Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 18:46
  
  That’s Tesla’s schtik. Harvesting data of users. But they’ll all do it.
  - tonyjzx on 08/02/2023 - 21:05
    
    +1
    
    that really doesnt mean anything
    
    literally 50yrs ago the Japanese set up research centers in the US and EU to find out what western customers wanted in automobiles and they set out the build a better "mousetrap"
    
    the rest is history
    
    even now the Americans Germans Japanese and Italians have set up research centers in China to find out what they want in cars
    
    how is this not expected?
    
    know your customer
    
    newsflash: the established brands build cars largely for a chinese market… they have a billion people with a strong middle class AND a taste for foreign cars
    
    they flat out dont give a shit about 'smaller' markets and they damn well dont care about our pissy 1 mil. car sales a year…
    
    a state like shenzen would sell more cars than australia and nz combined
    - s1Lence on 09/02/2023 - 19:37
      
      Shenzhen is a city if I'm not mistaken. In fact I think there aren't any states in China, they have provinces.
- Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 12:20
  
  @Leadfoot6, you fail to understand that Chinese manufactured parts have been In Australian cars for decades, you purchased with out giving any thought to that I should imagine.A lot of vehicle manufacturers use Chinese manufactured parts.You really need to move on.
  - Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 16:16
    
    "fail to understand"?
    There is not much in the automotive industry that I fail to understand.
    I've sold over 2,000 new and used cars retail before retiring.
    Involved with club motorsport from 19 years old.
    Formed my University's first car club.
    Super Moderator on a worldwide automotive forum.
    I have NEVER owned a foreign made car, and will keep my Australian made 2004 TL Magna AWD on the road for many years yet, with a significant proportion of the repairs done by myself.
    My next car will probably be a VF Commodore.
    I put my money where my mouth is.
    And I speak with over 45 years experience with my #1 hobby that I turned into my living for many years.
    - Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 16:47
      
      +1
      
      I don’t care whether you ‘sold’ over 2,000 vehicles, &? That is not relevant to the argument.Your Australian ‘made’ Magna I can assure will have Chinese parts somewhere in there.I owned a TM series, & guess we’re the electrics came from? Yup, China, as did my AU Futura(purchased new).So don’t give me that garbage about Australian ‘made’, they had nowhere near 90% Australian content.I have had over sixty cars, & the ones in the late nineties & so on have a lot of Chinese sourced parts(fact).The VF Commodore has quite a bit of Chinese components in them.What are you going to do about that? Strip it down & replace with other parts?Even my GT Mustang had Chinese components in it, they all do.Time to come back to earth sonny.Even tyres are no longer manufactured here.Most come out of Asia for our market.
      - Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 19:30
        
        @Hackney: I disagree with your lack of recognition of my involvement in the retail motor industry, or previous motorsport involvement, or my ability to fix my own vehicles, as I said never an imported one amongst them on my part but plenty for the family or the used car yards I worked in.
        I am not disagreeing with you that many cars, including my very much loved Magna, has Chinese made parts in them. It is just to what extent that you want to argue about. What the compliance plate says as to the country of manufacture is largely determinant of the overall parts content. I do not know how you arrived at the "90% Australian content" that you inserted into your above post. I certainly did not mention a figure, but I would never be so stupid as to specify such a figure for any of the Big 4(Holden, Ford, Toyota, Mitsubishi) vehicles that dominated the Australian market in the years leading up to the ending of Australian vehicle manufacture. You specified it, without any sources or facts to back it up. Not me. But what you are also remis in doing is acknowledging the EXPORTS of Australian vehicles such as Commodores rebadged as Pontiacs in the USA, or Mitsubishi Magna/Verada rebadged as the "Diamante" in the USA, in addition to Holden/Mitsubishi complete engines.
        I'm sorry, but your detailed knowledge of the Australian Automotive Industry is fragmentary.
        The Industry was a great benefit to this country whilst it was still going.
        
        From an article 10 years ago:
        
        Who killed the car industry?
        Ray Cassin
        13 December 2013
        
        […..]
        
        [Quote]
        Because neoliberalism is such a narrow ideological frame through which to view economic activity, much commentary on public subsidy of the carmakers reduces the issue to a question of whether there is any point in continuing to pour taxpayers' dollars into a loss-making industry. Among other things, this evades the question, not commonly asked, of why we continue to subsidise other industries whose profitability would suggest that they do not need assistance.
        
        Mining, for example, receives a $3 billion a year diesel-fuel rebate that makes $400 million a year for the car industry look measly. And it is measly in international terms: Australia's per capita contribution to the car industry is $US18, compared with $90 per capita in Germany, $96 per capita in the US and $334 per capita in Sweden. Apart from Australia, every country that has a car industry accepts that it will not survive without public subsidy.
        
        The narrow frame of the debate also ignores what the industry returns to the wider economy. In the past 12 years Holden received an average of $150 million from the public purse but in that time it generated $2.7 billion in economic activity, mostly through contracts with the now threatened components makers.
        
        In terms of income-tax revenue alone, the industry was hardly a drag on the national economy. Yet comparatively few media commentators — former Age economics editor Tim Colebatch, The Guardian Australia's Mark Skulley and industry analyst Ian Porter are honourable exceptions — have explained this broader context.
        
        Most important of all, the car industry has been the chief skills repository of Australian manufacturing, and without new sources of employment for the bearers of those skills they will eventually be lost to the economy. The cost of losing these jobs, in human as well as financial terms, will be immense. We are living in a time when governments can contemplate economic catastrophe with apparent equanimity.
        [unquote/
        ]
        https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/who-killed-the-car-i…
        
        It is such a shame that so many un Australian attitudes permeated to make it "fashionable" to drop support of our own industry.
        
        I have never been a Labor voter, but I do think that supporting Australian blue collar union jobs was a worthwhile endeavour, especially based on some of the figures quoted above.
        
        "Mateship".
        
        Hackney on 10/02/2023 - 06:04
        
        @Leadfoot6: Our country is not big enough to support multiple car manufacturers(fact) for a vehicle manufacturer to @ least ‘break even’ they have to produce @ least 100,000 units(globally) a year.Ford & Holden could not do that together,Toyota even could not achieve that.You cannot blame governments of the day.The ‘Button’ plan is when the rot set in, with import tariffs reduced.The big ‘three’ had no way of competing.Our labour costs are also very high. You cannot also have a government keep throwing/supporting money @ an industry like that. The 90% was just an example, in fact I think it is lower.Yes, it was of great benefit,(support of blue collar workers)but @ what cost? I have never agreed to keep throwing money @ an industry like that.Do you think for one moment that they would have pulled up stumps if it had worked for them?Sales were dismal.Holden especially read the market all wrong, terrible line up of vehicles that nobody wanted, even Commodore sales were declining, it is the public that decided to move across to better vehicles. Let’s face it, in GM & Fords case a lot of the revenue went back to the US.We just simply cannot support manufacturing here, & I wish we could, but you have to be realistic.
- smartazz104 on 09/02/2023 - 14:32
  
  +3
  
  How are you posting comments to OzBargain, surely a computer (full of Chinese-made components) is too much technology for someone such as yourself.
  - Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 16:24
    
    My current, second hand, desktop computer cost me $160 on eBay.
    There is not much funds transfer that went to China from that transaction.
    I scrutinize EVERYTHING that I buy to minimise their "take" - as much as is possible, accepting that I cannot eliminate completely Chinese input, being quite aware of the interconnectedness of the modern world.
    Once again, I put my money where my mouth is.
    - Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 17:40
      
      I can guarantee that your ‘2nd’ hand laptop has a lot of parts manufactured in China.
      - Leadfoot6 on 09/02/2023 - 18:41
        
        @Hackney: This response from you displays clearly your level of intellect, and reading comprehension.
        
        I do not own a laptop.
        
        I clearly said that what I purchased was a second hand "desktop", and yet you converted it to "laptop".
        
        Please try to keep up.
        
        I attempt to MINIMISE my financial contributions to China, well, whilst they are on the threatening and aggressive path that they have been on for a considerable period of time.
        
        Nowhere have I said that it is possible to ELIMINATE purchase of Chinese products COMPLETELY.
        
        Most readers with some reasonable level of intelligence would be able to ascertain the finer distinction that I am trying to make.
        
        Would you like to count yourself as one of those able to be included in that category?
        
        It might be too much to ask from you, but I will still give you the opportunity.
        
        Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 18:44
        
        @Leadfoot6: My bad,same scenario though.Let’s get a few facts down, a lot of Chinese companies are privately owned & not aligned with the state.So I fail to see your reasoning.It is an economic powerhouse.So, what is your problem with buying a Chinese manufactured product & the money going back to the company?Really crazy analogy. It is the Chinese government that creates the policy of aggression, not the ordinary person or the company producing the product.Let’s face it most on here do not agree with your analogy.If you made some sense I would have no hesitation in agreeing with you.
  - Hackney on 09/02/2023 - 18:57
    
    @smartazz104 Well said!
TEER3X on 08/02/2023 - 18:41

The lithium batteries are garbage, there's always new technology just around the corner that is leaps and bounds ahead
- Euphemistic on 08/02/2023 - 18:45
  
  Lithium is the best we have right now, and it’s not terrible. How can it be garbage if they are expecting more than 80% capacity at 10 years and surviving hundreds of charge cycles. The chemistry is improving all the time.
  
  Waiting for the next big innovation is a recipe for never go ahead with anything.
  - TEER3X on 09/02/2023 - 20:38
    
    solid state batteries are only a few years away (less than 5), heaps of companies already behind it.
    
    another company is mass producing sodium-ion batteries later this year, not as good as lithium, but don't need cobalt among other things.
    
    only a matter of time
- Brick Tamland on 08/02/2023 - 21:29
  
  Shock horror, the new tech will be synthetic fuels.
  - Euphemistic on 09/02/2023 - 05:57
    
    +1
    
    Yeah, no it won’t. Burning fuel in a combustion engine is just not energy efficient, let alone creating synthetic fuels. ICE can be as much as 30% energy efficient. BEV is better than 90% energy efficient.
    - Brick Tamland on 09/02/2023 - 19:20
      
      BEV is better than 90% energy efficient.
      
      because the power has already been generated so yeah its gonna be efficient. You cant really produce a reliable efficiency rating without considering the production method. For example electricity generated from brown coal isn't super efficient despite it being used in an EV
      - greatlamp on 10/02/2023 - 08:11
        
        @Brick Tamland: Coal power plants are still more than 30% efficient, closer to 40%
        
        Brick Tamland on 10/02/2023 - 08:26
        
        @greatlamp: Well that's my point. If you charged up your Tesla at home during the night time (no solar) you've probably used a reasonable amount brown coal generated electricity so your EV is around 30-40% efficient not 90%.That 90% efficiency is just the transfer of stored electric into kinetic energy. That stored electricity wasnt free. Still I am aware thats it's still more efficient than a petrol car but let's compare apples with apples.
      - Euphemistic on 10/02/2023 - 08:38
        
        @Brick Tamland: Energy efficiency of an EV powered by coal is roughly the same as an ICE with the fuel already in the tank.

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