Still Thinking about Solar - Low Energy Usage

Been back and forth on this one. Everyone we talked to says it's a no brainer, especially when we can setup 2 strings (16 to 20 panels) facing north and 1 string (4 to 6 panels) facing west, unshaded. We have got quotes from 6.6kW to 10.8kW, a mid range 8.8kW setup costs around $8k.

The most recent 12 months we consumed 5,500kWh (15kWh/day). The usage part of energy bills add up to $1,600. Obviously without a battery we will still draw from the grid during peak usage and non-solar hours, feed in is bugger all now and can be ignored. Even if solar can reduce energy cost by 50%, will still take 10 years just to break even, shorter (6-7 years?) if usage increase and/or price increase (probably likely).

We have gas cooking and hot water, our 12 months gas bills add up to $750 (usage and supply), converting to electric may help solar ROI but also adds thousands to the cost.

I don't know, feels like a lot of work for little gain in our case. To solar owners, how many kWh do you consume a year? How many kWh from solar vs grid?

Comments

  • +10

    I wouldn't install solar without battery. FIT is dropping and will continue to. There's even talk about charging you instead of paying you. If you go to the trouble of paying for solar, get a battery so you can use the power yourself rather than relying on exporting which could soon cost you.

    • +8

      But battery adds another $8k, and it has a shorter efficiency life span than solar panels, so even harder to justify ROI.

      • Depends on when they introduce charges for feeding into the grid and what they are.

        I'm not sure how big the system is here but I can see on the panel on a day like today it sits at putting out 10kw peak and about 7kw early morning and late afternoon. I only use 8kw per day max and most of that is evenings when I get home so solar doesn't cover much of it. Right now the FIT means I don't pay anything for electricity but when that flips to charging me $0.20/kwh or more rather than paying me $0.05/kwh the return on investment will be negative.

        • I thought you can program the invertor not to export? Do that when feed in becomes negative.

          FIT is so low now I don't factor it in as a benefit.

          • @browser: No idea, I'm only here temporarily so haven't looked into it. If you don't export and you don't have a battery can you use the power generated? I haven't looked into it but I didn't think that was possible.

            Right now even with the low FIT it still covers my usage plus about $70 credit per quarter so there's still a benefit right now, I'm just not sure how much longer it'll exist.

            • @apsilon:

              If you don't export and you don't have a battery can you use the power generated

              Yes. Most inverters can be configured to throttle the excess power output so that it is not exported to the grid.
              If you have an Enphase system, it is a simple as adding a "No Export" profile.

              • @DoctorCalculon: Yes, any decent inverter should be able to support export limiting, however, you'll generally need an extra metering device installed in your main switchboard and connected to the inverter. That's often an optional extra, so you need to make sure it's included.

                • @stewy:

                  However, you'll generally need an extra metering device installed in your main switchboard and connected to the inverter

                  You are talking about the consumption CT, yes?
                  Yes, both CTs are needed for throttling to work.

      • $16k for 8.8kw solar and a battery is a lot, dunno what rebates are like where you are but the STCs in Victoria are lower and there are places that'll do that for $10k

        I recently replaced gas cooking and hot water for $4,800, $3,300 of that being the oven/cooktop (wanted a 90cm and induction with a known brand). Plenty of rebates kicking around for hot water here though. And my bill was closer to $100 a month just for gas, so a no brainer.

        • agreed. 7-8kw should be about $4k for a mid-tier system and a 10kw battery a further 5-6. This is NSW

      • 100% correct

        By the time the battery has been paid for it will be time to replace it.

        Both batteries and solar panels degrade over time.
        Hence their efficiency drops year by year.

        Originally the high feed in tarrifs made solar worthwhile.

        Now as OP correctly observes Solar is becoming much more difficult to justify, especially with the added cost of a battery.
        It more than doubles the cost of a solar system….hence double the payback period.

        And given the high amount of toxic materials in solar panels and batteries, disposal will go the same way as asbestos over time.
        Solar panels and batteries will become very expensive and hazardous to dispose of.
        So even more cost to factor into a solar system.

        But of course the government isnt going to warn you about this now.
        It might affect achieving thier ever increasing clean energy mandate.

        • It astounds me that not many people who opt for solar actually realize this. I did the calculations on the total cost of provisioning solar and batteries (good quality) at my premises and maintaining them over a 20 year period.

          Then calculated the longevity of the panels/battery systems being approximately 20 years..

          Now this is where things don't make sense, in a 20 year period, we're actually spending LESS purchasing electricity than we would be by going solar… that's including a certain percentage added each year of increasing costs of power.

          So it made no sense AT ALL to purchase solar on the basis that:

          1. Upfront costs are expensive, I'll have more money in my pocket now.
          2. Battery/solar degredation of a 20 year period will need components to be replaced - REGARDLESS OF THE WARRANTY - which if you read carefully has some specific fineprint!
          3. I'll spend less in electricity costs in 20 years, by then the batteries and system will need to be replaced.

          Seems like poor policy from the government.

          • +2

            @0z8smakf: You are forgetting alarge chunk of people are firmly against the use of gas and coal to power their homes. I know that was our view when we installed a 6.5kw system with tesla battery 5 years ago. And in our case we have absolutely come out better because of it.

          • @0z8smakf: Wait why do you think you'll spend less in electricity costs as years go by? Prices are only going up in my state.

            • @serpserpserp: No where did I state that the costs will reduce as the years go by? infact I actually said the opposite:

              Now this is where things don't make sense, in a 20 year period, we're actually spending LESS purchasing electricity than we would be by going solar… that's including a certain percentage added each year of increasing costs of power.

              • -1

                @0z8smakf: Sorry I was confused by your logic. Not sure what size system you think you need and what batteries are required (this could turn a 10k system into a 40k system). But I have just a standard 6.6kw system that was installed in the end for about 4 grand nearly two years ago now. What I can say now that I have solar:

                1. You have to remember that the power that is used and generated by solar did use to cost something before solar. You might have been paying 20-35c a kw during the day for this power.
                2. You are likely to use more power than you use to because it is free at certain parts of the day. Hot day and sunny? Before solar I waited for it to get really hot before putting air con on, now it just goes on 10am to 5/6pm in summer, all because it is free. Makes life much more comfortable.
    • +3

      I agree, my situation is almost identical to OP's but I got solar panels 3 years ago so I was able to enjoy the high FIT for 2 years before it dropped to peanuts. Solar panels will save you about $800/year + FIT which is currently around $450/year, the battery will save you another $1250/year for a total of $2500/year. Companies like ASB are selling a 13.2kW system with a 42kWh battery for $10.5k so it's pretty competitive. The simple pay back period is only 4.2 years and it's well worth it. You'd be silly to skip the battery with the 70% government rebate, I'd rather skip the solar than the battery if I had to pick one.

    • But if doing so for economical benefit do your math first.

      For example if you pay $0.50 per kwh and have a 13 kwh battery (gives about 10 kwh of use per charge). Then if you fully charge it and fully consume it each day, then you will have saved 10kwh * $0.5 * 365 = $1,825 per year.

      This assumes full charge and discharge - you'll get days with effectively no charge (heavy overcast/cloudy, short days, etc) you'll get days with more than 1 charge (cloudy periods where you pinch some battery charge and charge again when suns out)

      There's a few ifs in there - do your own calcs and see how you wind up.

      (note - this is also calculated at $0.50c flat rate - which is unlikely realistic today for most. Most likely pay closer to an average of $0.30 per kwh which makes it only $1,095 per year).

  • Have to assess your own situation, everyone is going to be different :P

    For example, even if you use 100% solar, you still get hit with a "connection fee" which is $1 to $2 daily (so impossible while connected to grid to get to $0) …

    Because of the connection fees, all my residents are stand alone (and 100% solar and mobile batteries, grid not connected)!

    • +1

      all my residents are stand alone

      Do they at least have pets to keep them company?

    • Not impossible. If you feed in power you get credits for that which can offset the supply charge :p

      • +1

        Won't be long until you are paying to feed in (negative FiT) …

  • I pay $60-80 a month for my power

    • Solar or no solar?

      • With solar.

  • -1

    If you don’t have battery it’s probably not worth it. Because of the prevalence of rooftop solar feeding into the grid almost for free, power during solar peak production hours is very cheap, so your solar isn’t going to have as much benefit as people might think.

    • Yep, solar isn't worth much these days as the FIT is dropping every year. Many providers now have 3hrs of free electricity during the day. If OP wants to pay the bare minimum costs, go with Amber and buy the 42kWh battery only for $5.5k installed and it should cover all your needs because the day time price is only about 4c/kWh thanks to the tens of millions of solar panels that Aussies have installed on their roofs. You can then use it at night or even export the excess back to the grid for 30c-$19/kWh.

      • If OP wants to pay the bare minimum costs, go with Amber and buy the 42kWh battery only for $5.5k installed

        The battery rebate isn't available unless the battery is installed alongside a solar system, whether pre-existing or installed with the battery. Without the rebate that $5.5k battery is more like $18k.

  • +3

    Just get it.

    What are you going to do with the $6k instead? Put it into the share market? Bank interest at an eventual 3.5% gross?

    Don't outsmart yourself.

    • The fund will come from offset account against IP, will pay more interest, but interest is tax deductible. We are talking a couple hundred dollars a year, so it wouldn't be a deciding factor.

      • -4

        but interest is tax deductible

        It's what the funds are used for whether the interest is tax deductible or not. Hope you don't get audited if you go ahead, …unless the solar panels are for your investment property.

        • +1

          It's the offset account, you are free to use the fund for whatever, go on a holiday or buy a car.

          It's withdrawing from the loan you have to be careful about. Because taking money from the loan can potentially change the purpose of the loan.

  • You can get a cheap 6kW system under $3k.
    This will cover all your daytime usage.
    If you redirect dishwasher, pool pumps, clothes washing/drying to daylight it will cover all that too.
    In future, when your gas hot water needs replacing, go electric and it will cover that too.

    Otherwise, with your low usage there is little reason to get a costly system with costly batteries.

    • Yeah, have considered that option, but a mid range system, around $5k.

      Hesitation due to advice to go for more panels now, will be expensive to add later, and regret did not go big.

  • +3

    We consume 13.5k kwh/year by my workings.
    - 7.5k purchased from the grid, and
    - 6k obtained from on roof solar, which generates about 8.4k kwh/year - approx 70% self utilisation of whats generated, and about 44% of total consumption coming from Solar.

    this is from a north facing system - 6.6kw of panels feeding a 5kw inverter. In summer, running a pool heat pump during sunlight hours.

    before we started using a heat pump for pool heating over summer, we had about 40% self utilisation - about 3-3.5k kwh/year. This was with annual consumption of just under 8k kwh/year.

    unless you have a big use for electricity during the day over oct-march, I'd question its viability for such low use. Without our heat pump, we'd still be better off about $700-800/year on current rates - which gives you a 10year payback period… too long IMHO.

    We paid $3.5k for this system nearly 4 years ago - so even at $800/year, it was a no brainer without the heat pump coming into it, which gives us a longer swim season than traditional solar heating for the pool.

    • Thanks, that's a good use case example.

  • The most recent 12 months we consumed 5,500kWh (15kWh/day).

    Solar will offset any grid usage from 10 - 6 for summer months. Unless you are in QLD, you would realistically be saving the equivalent of about 5kwh per day!

    • So 1/3, ROI takes even longer.

  • You can get 12 months of usage data from your distributor and upload it to a calculator like Sunspot to get a proper estimate of payback time, savings etc specific to you.

    If you self consume more than 35% of the generation (no battery) you're doing well. Aim of the battery on top is to increase this number.

  • +1

    Long term average (over 7 years) in Victoria with 6.6kW of panels on a 5kW inverter was 32.9% of our usage covered by solar. That's down to 15% in winter and up to 50% in summer.

    We've just spent a fortune upgrading it to 13.3kW of panels, 10kW inverter and 32kWh of battery. We have also moved to a plan (with Globird) that gives free power between 11am and 2pm so I can top up the battery even on days when it's dark and cloudy. It's only been about a month, but we are covering nearly 90% from solar or free electricity now.

    ROI is still 8-ish years

  • +1

    I'm a SAA designer/installer for solar and battery in Melbourne's South East.
    I recently designed and quoted a system for a family of 4, where both adults work full time and aren't home during the day, kids are at school. They have gas cooktop and heating, heat pump hot water and split system cooling.
    For a 6.6kw system that cost $6k out of pocket, their break even was 6.5 years. Adding a 12kWh battery increased the out of pocket cost to $14k, however the break even was just under 9 years for the solar and battery combined, that's 2.5 years for the battery component only. They are also replacing their gas heating to electric reverse cycle ducted which will lower the break even time.
    Any good designer/installer will be able to give you a detailed breakdown of the cost and returns, using your smart meter data.
    Yes you can get systems for $3k, these installers are on a time crunch for jobs where attention to detail isn't priority, and using lower end equipment.

    • Batteries need to be replaced on average every 10 years right?

      Battery replacements won't get rebated right?

      So never ending investment to chase returns.

      • +2

        The warranty period is 10 years. Most makers guarantee 50 to 60% remaining capacity after 10 years.

        It's very likely battery prices will be a fraction of what they are today when it comes time to replace them. It's like solar panel installs now. They're around a quarter of the price now compared to 2012 when I had my system installed.

        • Our Neovolt system came with 10 years with a guaranteed 80% capacity during the warranty period. It'd be interesting to see how quickly that min 80% capacity guarantee fails. Would be painful trying to get a warranty replacement in 5 years, let alone 10

  • +4

    Similar boat. I've held off, with the low consumption the ROI blows out. I've found it easier to use even less power (insulate/turn stuff off) or get cheaper power (churn/TOU) than install panels/battery. My other thoughts are that I'm putting another few hundred kg on my roof with a heap of protrusions (leaks), systems drop out/lose efficiency, breakdowns/warranty etc. The last factor is that having solar/battery trains you to use more power.

    • +3

      Not sure why people neg you, all valid points.

      Installing solar is not without risk, though the workmanship and hardware are much more mature now comparing to 10 years ago, but still a bit of lucky dip between good installers and sloppy ones.

      Some of my friends tell me they get free air conditioning in summer, before solar they rarely turn on cooling. Perfect example to show they use more energy because of solar, but solar did not help them save the energy they wouldn't use otherwise. Though the conform factor is a plus.

    • Come across this video on YouTube, the roofer explained it very well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-jAhz5GED4

      A sloppy install can cause huge problems down the track, it's not immediate, will be difficult to identify, and will have a hard time to recall, if they are still around.

      Imagine the cost, roofer and solar guy both need to be there.

      Doesn't sound like a risk worth taking for low consumption households.

  • I would wait until batteries become more affordable, or your current gas hot water system reaches end of life and replace it with a heat pump. You've done the maths and it simply doesn't make sense right now.

  • I have 5.5kW on the roof, and a 5kW inverter. Installed 8 years ago. Solaredge inverter, Trina panels.

    Inverter went south last year, but was under warranty, so I just paid for installation.

    No battery. Gas cooking and HWS/Heating.

    I hover between 46 - 49% self consumption annually. We use about (average) 12kW hours per day total. I also generate between 6.7MWh - 7.0MWh annually.

    What you have not factored in is:

    1. If you modify your usage patterns, you can get more out of your solar, ie. dishwasher, washing machine/Dryer, oven timed to operate during the day for free (most days for free if it's not cloudy)

    2. Power is only going to increase in price.

    3. WFH? Have/planning to get an EV? You can also use part of your generation for those as well.

    So I think it's still worth it. (Quality) Battery not so much, but that can change as battery technology gets better.

    HTH.

  • +4

    Every person's solar "journey" is unique. I have thought about installing a battery but the numbers don't stack up. I'm waiting for EVs in Australia to embrace V2G (vehicle to grid) technology as I think this will be a game changer for solar/ battery economics. Basically you power the house from the EV during peak periods & recharge the EV battery from solar (free) or off peak grid (cheaper) power. Good luck with your consideration.

    • I really like the sound of this. Is it being done somewhere? Will move for it!

    • V2G sounds good, but for practicality, I think that V2G be bad for the car battery. I guess it would work for certain people who don't use their car much.

      • Seens the resale prices of EVs?!? You can get multiple V2G vehicles with 40+kWh batteries for cheaper than standalone battery + install :P

        PS. It's already a thing, just need the appropriate inverters (Quasar / Sigenergy)

        • Bud you can get a 42kwh battery and a 10kw inverter installed for 6k.

          That’s probably what it’ll cost to get V2G installed and certified in your house

  • +1

    With that sort of usage - can you just use something like the OVO Free Hours plan? I'm able to schedule most of my power usage into the free window (full electric house + EV) and average around 12-13 cents per kWh across all my usage now + daily connection fee. You would need to get in the habit of scheduling your power usage for this kind of period anyway if you had solar installed.

    Only time it is an issue is when I run the ducted AC but we just suck it up because we don't use it that often.

  • If the ROI isn't there, then it isn't worth it. Don't stress about it and case closed!

    I guess people keep repeating that it's a no-brainer without considering the individual situation because, yeah, it was for years, but things have changed, and ROI takes way longer now.

    • I guess people keep repeating that it's a no-brainer without considering the individual situation

      Technically they're right. Their reasoning is very much no-brainer.

    • ROI has been trending downwards for a long time now. Solar installation costs (and batteries, but on a different time scale) are sliding, power from the grid is climbing. Falling FIT impacts this somewhat but, like you wrote, it depends on the individual situation.

  • It's worth factoring in the possibility of an electric vehicle too. We recently purchased a phev and run it almost exclusively on electricity which becomes very cheap when the FIT is low. For what it's worth our usage before car was about 20kwh/day on average, we spent $15k on a 10kwh system with 13kwh battery and it's already saved/earned $9.5k in 3 years, albeit with some generous FITs.

  • Gas is on the way out. And wouldn't you like to have the house warmer in winter and cooler in summer, solar could let you do that with AC.

    • God I hate the environment. You can take my gas cooking from my cold, dead hands.

  • +1

    The only thing to consider in addition to ROI is whether it will change how you use electricity.

    For example, right now I'm pretty miserly with my air conditioning usage because no solar even though I have a new system.

    If I had solar covering the usage? It would be a perfect temperature all year round (while the sun is shining at least). So if I were in a situation where I could get solar (apartment), I would run the numbers on my ideal usage patterns if I had solar as well as my electricity usage.

  • +2

    I'm in the same boat. Our usage is quite low, the usage part of our bills are just over $1k a year. Most days use 6-10kWh depending on if anyone is home etc. We have evaporative cooling which doesn't really impact the bills that much in summer (summer bills are maybe 10% higher). We have gas heating, I'd love to get off it but cost wise it's not really practical, makes no sense to spend money to save money because some of the cost will just be deferred to our electricity bill instead of gas.

    As much as I want solar and a battery it doesn't make sense for me right now because most of the generated energy won't be consumed by us.

    • +2

      Similar situation to us, totally agree with the evap really cheap to run, very effective in low humidity not so much in high humidity. I have been concerned about panels on the roof. Tiles and low angle means roof access via tiles only, no crall space. Any ceiling maintenance (old house) would mean taking panels off. Also some roof space is totally no good from my understanding eg exposed beams with tiles sitting just above them.
      I think the people that really gain from solar are the power gluttons, sort of in keeping with the overall current government philosophy!

  • you can always get a big battery to make use of the federal rebate (which you can only claim once), set aside what you need for domestic consumption and put the rest to work via a VPP to recuperate cost

  • I've had a 5kw system since 2012. Cost an enormous amount of money back then ($9.5k), but its delivered a profit over $10k in the last 13 years. That's including interest, maintenance, and replacement of a dead inverter.

    That was during the good times however, where I got a FIT of up to 20c. Now it's just 2c.

    Yesterday I had a 20kWh battery installed for just over $5k and I expect it will pay for itself within four years, including interest.

    Getting panels and a battery at the same time is obviously a large investment, but if you stay in your house it will pay for itself. Just getting panels when you're not home on weekdays is now a marginal proposition.

  • +1

    I'm holding off replacing my current aging solar setup to see what comes of the upcoming Vehicle-to-Grid / Vehicle-to-Home trials:

    https://www.evinfrastructurenews.com/v2g/agl-launches-v2g-tr…

    https://www.evinfrastructurenews.com/v2g/origin-energy-launc…

  • I have relatively low power use as well and figured it's simply not worth it.

  • So many reasonable answers here who actually care about ROI/Payback unlike those on some Facebook groups. Like MEEH.

    Neither solar or battery makes sense for a lot of people unless you have a lot of usage with power-hungry air conditioners, pool pumps, pool heaters etc.

    If you only use 15kWh a day and are able to move most of your usage to off-peak times, then solar makes very little sense.

  • 15kWh/day is very low, I use about 10kw before we even get up (heating the hot water overnight)

    The good thing about solar is it won't get more expensive. Batteries will be twice the price at half the cost within 5 years so if the ROI doesn't make sense now, check back in a few years.
    In few years new systems should all be fully intigrated, DC coupled battieries with inverters built in like sigenergy at dirt cheap prices.

    Assuming you are in your forever home and you still have a loan just wait until your hot water and cooking systems need replacing, and at that point look into converting to all electric.

    I've had my 13kw system for 10 months now. Here in Tassie it's a bit of a different ballgame to everywhere else as we still have a high feed in tarrif (10 cents) but high system prices so batteries just aren't worth it quite yet even with the rebate.

  • Hey OP. Do you spend any summer days sweating bullets to save energy? Solar+Split A/C can make your days a lot more comfortable.

  • First step would be electrification.

    You have GAS hot water. Swapping this to a modern heat pump usually has larger benefits financially, then swap the cooktop and you no longer have a gas connection.
    Your bills are genuinely tiny - I'm guessing you live somewhere warm ? and don't need much heating of the home or water?

    Then EV that will consume some electricity assuming you don't have agrophobia.

    Then think about solar/battery, there isn't a lot of benefit if you don't have consumption.

    Plenty of electricity plans that allow you to get really cheap electricity during the day anyway now, and solar is getting cheaper.

  • I'm in a similar boat, my usage is very low, under 5kwh per day on average (I do have a 3kw solar system which came with the house when I bought it last year, so my usage would be a bit higher if it weren't for this). I absolutely cannot financially justify a battery at the moment, the payoff time would be 15-20 years.

    I recently purchased an EV too, so while initially the feed-in was terrible and got nothing for it. I'll be managing some of my EV charging through the day to use up excess solar where possible.

  • Why so many panels? Just right size the system for your estimated usage shifting what you can to daytime use, mainly washing machine, dryer and dishwasher.

  • if you have gas hot water and stove, that kind of kills it IMO.

    our highest electricity usage is heating/cooling, cooking, and hot water so solar makes sense.
    WFH so using more electricity during peak solar time.
    Timer on hot water so it is heating during day and not night.

    your case for getting solar is mainly just protecting you from future rate spikes and or usage (e.g. EV).
    Most solar systems will last for a lot longer than 10 years, so even if your break even after 10 years mean you will be in positive eventually. If you have the funds, I would still lean towards getting solar

  • I had 6.6/5kW solar put in late 2022 - $5800 out of pocket.

    Average usage in 2023 was 6kWh from PV and 3.8kWh from grid per day. For 2024 it went up to 8 and 6. Differences were heat pump hot water instead of gas, added a vented clothes dryer and more AC use. I'm adding a 10kWh battery in the next month or so ($6650 after rebates with VPP agreement). Haven't had a bill to pay in a long time thanks to the WA govt handouts, but the next bill will have depleted those. Best month was December with about 110kWh from grid, 480 consumed from PV and 830 fed to grid. Worst month was July - 350kWh grid, 215 consumed from PV, 260 fed to grid. Calculating day by day for the worst month I would need to pull about 150kWh from the grid after the battery would have been depleted in 14 out of 31 days (assuming zero charge at the beginning and zero conversion losses).

    Looking to get an EV in the next couple of years. Might add some panels - 10kW into the 5kW inverter when combined with a battery. Currently 133% oversized without battery.

  • I had a 6.6kW Solar only installation for only $1,199 out of pocket, + 195 bucks for a smart meter so I can track Load, Export / Import, you can already get PV from the inverter.

    Which I have to pay $29.17 bucks to the government monthly for 43 months remaining.

    My bills have been reduced by roughly 20 ~ 40 bucks a month.

    During summer the ROI would be higher as the Air-Conditioning would essentially be free during the day.

    On my original estimations, if I only got exactly 30 bucks of electricity savings a month, it would take 7 years to ROI.
    If I were to get a savings of 60 it would take under 4 years.
    If I were to save 100 a month, it would take 2 years.

    So depending on those summer months, and how much I use and leave the AC running during the day, my ROI will vary between 2 - 7 years.

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