RBA Rises Rates for The 9th Time in a Row

The RBA have announced its 9th consecutive rate rise in a row
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/rba-i…

Interest rates a ~4x higher then they were pre-pandemic in December 2019 the cash rate was 0.75% it now is 3.35%

We have about 1/3 of home loans coming of 'fix terms' this year meaning the 'actual' affect of the rate rises have not be felt but a lot of borrowers

now before the Karens post
a. in 1990 interest rates we 21%
or
b. you should of seen this coming

no one cares you paid 21% on your $30,000 home loan

literally no one and i mean no one could have seen this level of interest rate hiking happen in such a short period of time this is history making speed rates are rising - keep in mind the high inflation is also hurting borrows so it is a double hit

of course we need to combat inflation but im posting to see how this will affect people who are 'borrowers' like myself - i know a few people that are 'really' feeling the pinch and wanted to say there is support out there via financial stress hotline and you can contact your lender for support regarding your situation if you are finding yourself in trouble

Poll Options

  • 496
    Interest Rates have me worried
  • 357
    Interest Rates dont have me worried
  • 278
    I dont have a loan

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Comments

  • +59

    keep in mind the high inflation is also hurting borrows so it is a double hit

    Keep in mind they hike rate because of inflation

    • +1

      Due to supply side factors, which a blunt demand regulating insurgent does little to improve.

      It's ideological economics gone crazy

      • +10

        I honestly don’t think RBA justification makes sense because of exactly that factor - a supply issue on non discretionary items.

        But also, whatever RBA decision is, people will blame them

        • The retail sale numbers are $5B per month excess of pre-covid trend.

          So people are spending alot of money on discretionary goods and services.

          Just ask my wife, she spends about $20k a month. :-)

      • Instrument* - damn autocorrect

      • +6

        Thats the only tool available to the RBA though.
        If they could increase oil/natural gas supply or solve the war in Ukraine; they would, but they can't so they have to raise rates.
        What else do you suggest they do?

        • +6

          It's the premise that the RBA should be using monetary policy to control supply driven inflation. It's the ideological - inflation control is for the RBA and only the RBA that is the problem. The RBA should be taking a cautious approach.

          Inflation in this scenario should be done through fiscal policy, through trade policy, through energy regulation, through real estate regulation, through foreign investment regulation.

          The RBA should be limited in its mandate and be accountable for its decisions. Rate rises should be done with caution

          Oh and why the hell do we pay the Governor so much. He earns more than the PM and clearly has no regard for the economic hardships that his decisions make for the majority of Australians. Make his pay reflective of his performance. Which is clearly not good if mediating inflation is the RBAs role.

          • +24

            @Thatbargainhunter: Monetary policy is literally the primary economic tool used against inflation by nearly EVERY economy in the world.

            Yes, it's blunt and causes extra damage but it works fast. Fiscal policy is much more complex to implement, costly & likely slow to have any effects.

            I don't pretend to know better than nearly every single central bank in the developed world - so is a bold call if you feel you do. ;-)

              • +14

                @Thatbargainhunter: In my view, monetary policy is stuck with whatever the FED does. RBA is doing a thing called Interest Rate Parity. In a nutshell, if you don't match the interest rate increase with the US then your currency will tank. This exacerbates inflation even further because AUD will drop in value further. This causes a wider implication for imports and exports. That just means the cost of goods to import will increase significantly and businesses will exports more instead of selling via domestic.

                An example of this case is Turkey Lyra. Turkey decided it was cool to not match the FED's interest rate increase and lower its interest rates. This caused the Lyra to tank over the years. You can google how prices continuously increase on goods and services in Turkey each day due to their currency tanking.

                Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266885833_Does_Unco…

                I'm not an expert in economics or anything but I vaguely recall studying macroeconomics and the relationship between interest rates and currency exchange rates.

                I do see your point on the microeconomics view though. RBA has one job and that's to maintain the stability of the financial system. The rest should really be with our government to focus more on fiscal policy. Those are the levers that can relief interest rate increases.

                • +2

                  @Jetkuma: The Turkey Lyra also is experiencing inflation of 20%+ because they didnt hike rates when they should have

                • @Jetkuma:

                  Those are the levers that can relief interest rate increases.

                  If the government implemented fiscal measures that'd counteract the rate increases, it'd just be like the UK 6 months ago when they were harshly punished for irresponsible borrowing and BOE intervened. Unlike the BOE, Fed, BOJ, ECB etc., RBA hardly has a reserve to buy back bond. Money doesn't grow on trees.

                • +1

                  @Jetkuma: A better example would be the Yen. The central bank didn't increase rate and their currency got smashed.

                  The sooner we call the end of US dollar as the default currency the better. But of course America would never allow for this to happen. With their massive ever increasing debt, if the show ended today, and no one wanted their currency, the whole empire will collapse.

              • +11

                @Thatbargainhunter: @Thatbargainhunter

                RE: 1. I never said it was the only econonomic tool, I said it was the primary economic tool. The RBA has NEVER said it will use monetary policy at whatever social cost - there is nothing unique about the RBA or Australia in this regard, stop misleading people

                RE: 2. And many are taking more aggressive approaches - its very hard to compare apples with apples on such complex matters and unless you're Ross Gittens or some other incredibly accomplished economist I highly doubt you have either the knowledge or sources to make such comments.

                RE 3. It's unique? As in there is literally no other economy like it in that regard in the world? I call BS on this claim - as I'm be astonished if you know the types of mortgage products on offer in Guinea Bisseau.

                There are a LOT of mortgage products available in Australia, its supply and demand - the issue here is that folks wanted the cheapest one at the alltime lowest rates. To say we dont have 30yr fixed mortgages as if thats common in the world is silly as that is the absolute definition of an outlier.

                How and who was not meant to allow this to happen? This is yet again people being greedy - loading up on debt and then blaming everyone other than themselves when it turns pear shaped.

                RE 4. Again I'm either impressed or calling BS that you know the level of legislative accountability central banks around the world have.

                Re 5. I believe every increase has been at effectively the minimum increment of 25 basis points. It's an inprecise science and everyone knows this. They have to decide to err one way or another - and they've decided that inflation is the primary issue they wish to curb. If it were the other way around, other people would be complaining about this. I'm not aware of his salary or how it compares to similar roles, but again I'll just have to assume you're also incredibly knowledgeable in this area as well. ;-)

              • +6

                @Thatbargainhunter: I think you're wrong about most of those points.

                That said, the gov is to blame for the stupidly high house prices which caused so many people to have to borrow these huge amounts. Gov should never have allowed housing to become an investment and all the tax breaks need to be removed.

              • @Thatbargainhunter: Dozens of countries just like Australia have a look at NZ.

                • @811b11e8: New Zealand has a legislated review of RBA policy every 5 years.

                  But yes, New Zealand is fairly similar in that long term fixed loans are rare. But given that no other economy is as similar to Australia's (except obviously the resource sector isn't such a factor) - it's hardly a country to use as a comparison.

                  The US for example, is in a far less precarious situation with mortgage stress as 10 year fixed terms are common and 30 years are available and fairly common. Continental Europe is similar. 35 year flat loans are common place in Japan.

                  You really have no idea what your talking about.

        • -1

          I agree to a degree but as a nation, we could increase oil and natural gas supply (we have sh 1t tones of it) but we refuse to do so, so we pay the price.

          • @R4: We have already exhausted a lot of gas fields.

            What happens when we exhaust all of it? We would be totally screwed in a fashion that makes this look inconsequential.

            We have already ramped up extraction a lot in the last couple of decades. Extraction of oil and gas averaging about 18% growth a year it's just we exporting the vast majority of it now.

            18% is massive by the the compounding of this blows my mind.

        • Give them power over the whole economy, supply of goods and services, how much people are fed and what jobs they did and where they are forced to live.

          That worked well in communist countries (for a while).

    • +41

      "Keep in mind they hike rate because of inflation"

      …that they created.

      • +12

        And…?

        This is like the water authority letting the dams get too low and then putting restrictions in place so we dont all die of thirst. Sure it's harsh and they mismanaged it by letting people take too much earlier, but we still want them to stop people from using too much water, especially now we know it's a problem.

        • +8

          Huh?

          As others have noted it's not 'we' landless peasants that need to stop spending, it's the government. And they need to stop the printing presses as well which also adds to inflation in a large part. They also need to drop taxes from necessary items like homes so that they can become more affordable (for home owners rather than investors I mean).

          Otherwise our current system is like a game of monopoly with 10 people. One person already owns 90% of the money and real estate and has access to borrow money from the bank whenever they want. The other nine people have to share the remaining 10% and if you don't like it then you are a dirty commie.

          • +2

            @EightImmortals: I don't think your suggestions would have intended consequences and I haven't seen any evidence to support them. Most evidence actually shows that any measure to give buyers more buying power of a supply constrained good results in prices rises so decreasing taxes on property (of which there is very little to none anyway, it should be increased) or stamp duty (which FHBs don't pay anyway) will result in price rises. This was shown quite when they had the first home buyer grant scheme.

            • +3

              @Dsiee: The HIA disagrees with you.
              Here is a submission they put in a few ago, there's way too much to post it all here but I'll give you the summary:

              "Many of the taxes levied on new housing are highly inefficient and there is considerable inequity due to new
              housing being more heavily taxed than existing housing. The numerous taxes on new housing not only
              distort the housing market itself, constraining housing supply, but often also act to constrain labour mobility.
              Consequently, some of the current taxes effectively act as a brake on the aggregate Australian economy and
              as a result there is a strong productivity rationale for reforming taxes as they apply to new housing."

              They also talk about the stamp duty tax in the report.

              https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/Housing-…

              Here's more, "Half of the cost of a house and land package in Sydney is red tape and taxes, according to new data from the Housing Industry Association".
              Acoordinated approach is needed to address a tax and regulatory system that is "constraining the supply of new homes" and is the "root cause of the affordability challenge", the Housing Industry Association says.

              https://www.therealestateconversation.com.au/news/2019/08/20…

          • +5

            @EightImmortals: The government giving money to people is not the major cause of inflation, if you want to know the cause you only need to look here:

            https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/value-res…

            "The total value of residential dwellings rose $1.8 trillion in the 12 months"

            What do you think happens to all that wealth? It gets spent. What do home owners do with extra equity? Renovations, car loans, buying more investment property. Sound familiar?

            The government spent 88 Billion on jobkeeper, and even that amount is irrelevant in comparison.

            So what is the cause of inflation?
            1. The RBA
            2. The RBA
            And
            3. The RBA
            A pro corporate organisation stacked with ex liberals - who don't work for our interests.

            Otherwise our current system is like a game of monopoly with 10 people. One person already owns 90% of the money and real estate and has access to borrow money from the bank whenever they want.

            The only way to fix this is by using the government, or guillotines. Hating on the government is what the elite want from you - to destroy the one tool you have

            • +2

              @greatlamp: Cheers, I didn't say "The government giving money to people is the major cause of inflation", I said "they need to stop the printing presses as well which also adds to inflation in a large part."

              I guess corporate and private welfare would be included in that but that aint all they do with it. Anyway, we've had the discussion on government waste a few time before and nobody cares. :)

            • +1

              @greatlamp: What do you think caused the raise of value of dwellings? The govt printed money like it's the last day on earth. Now you pay.

              • @Spets: Is there a reliable source that you have for your assertion that the amount of Australian currency in circulation increased so greatly over this period (what span of time are you talking about?) ?

                Seems simplistic to say more money - therefore property values increased. It would be part of it - but primarily it would seem to be simple supply & demand as the primary driver - and there's a myriad of factors behind each of these.

              • @Spets: I thought it was pretty clear - the RBA with low interest rates.

                "The government printed money" is a meme, the US government prints money as part of quantitative easing. That didn't happen here. Blaming government actions is ignorant. In fact the government's actions during COVID were exactly what was required, interest rates should not have been moved

                • +2

                  @greatlamp:

                  That didn't happen here.

                  Yes it did. We bought $650 billion dollars of securities since the start of the pandemic.
                  https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/australia-to-end-qe-…

                • +1

                  @greatlamp: What are you talking about, here it is on the govt site:

                  https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/businesses

                  They printed. A lot. For shits and giggles go on any business broker website and request the financials of the businesses for sale. See how much free money as "Covid Payment" those businesses received.

                  • @Spets: Read my comment to EightImmortals above.

                    $88 Billion on jobkeeper vs $1.8 TRILLION increase in real estate.

                    Giving money to businesses that aren't earning any isn't going to cause inflation.

          • @EightImmortals:

            They also need to drop taxes from necessary items like homes so that they can become more affordable (for home owners rather than investors I mean).

            Did you see what happened to the UK when Liz Truss was around? Her idea was relatively more fiscally robust as she wanted to drop taxes for businesses to boost the economy.

            And they need to stop the printing presses as well which also adds to inflation in a large part.

            There's no free lunch.

      • +3

        I think you do not realise how interconnected the world of finance is. It's not just us that have inflation, its 99% of developed countries around the world. Whatever happens in the US will probably happen here as well financially.

      • …that they created.

        Good, like responsible people its right to fix your own mistakes

        • OK let me know when that happens…but at their expense and not mine. :)

          • @EightImmortals: Unless we move to a proper currency, it's not going to happen. Fiat allows such movement of value, as it protects those whom are in control and responsible.

            • @Kangal: :)

              Careful what you wish for.
              Currently their idea of 'proper' currency is some form of CDBC
              And the BOE were making stupid/scary statements about that yesterday.

              https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/companies/consumers-to-face-…

              Unless you meant some kind of asset backed currency but I can't see what that asset might be. There's a not enough gold in the world to go back to a gold standard. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

              • @EightImmortals: Our economy is based on oil, a modern hard currency would be backed by oil. Obviously this is not in our national interest since we have little local sources so it will not happen. We are more likely to move to a crypto fiat thats tied to the dying US empire.

          • @EightImmortals: I, for one, is happy to see IR head to 8 or 9 or 10%, finally earn some interset in my savings

      • They only created it because we want it and vote for it.

        • +1

          Who's we?

          And 'Govern me harder daddy!'? :)

          • +1

            @EightImmortals: Haha. I exclude myself from the collective ‘we’.

            Maybe it’d be better if we truely were ruled by a rich, educated elite after all…. 🙄 Or scrap that… we already are (inflation is awesome for those with assets)….

      • because of the $ they given out during the pandemic?

        • +1

          A mere drop in the ocean. :)

  • +43

    I think its definitely time for us to start cracking each others heads open and feast on the goo inside.

    • +13

      think its definitely time for us to start cracking each others heads open and feast on the goo inside.

      wipes mouth and looks around nervously
      Ahhh…we weren't meant to have already started?

    • Quick way to starve.

    • Yes it is, Kent.

  • +14

    My rate is locked at 1.75% until early next year, so the rises have had zero impact on me. I am however stacking money in anticipation of the rate reset.

    • I'm on 1.86% until Setpember 2024 (nearly halfway through a 3 year fix) so saving hugely at the moment. Kind of wish I'd locked in 2.29% until 2026 though which I could have at the time.

      • +1

        im on 1.99% until May 2025. I'm soooo happy that I locked in for 4 years.

        • I'm so jelly of this

        • -1

          Calling BS on this. At no time in the rate cycle would anyone give 1.99 for 4.

          • @Wallyt99: Lenders do negotiate.

          • @Wallyt99: I just came off 3 years fixed in 2021, and then refixed @ 1.99%. If you recall in mid 2021, most banks were offering around high 1's for 2-3 years fixed :)

          • @Wallyt99: I'm on 1.89 until June 2025. 4 year fixed with St George.

        • Smart move :)

    • +2

      By zero impact you mean aside from the fact that your home has dropped in value and can make refinancing a problem

      • depends where you are - here in WA value is pretty stable

  • +43

    "literally no one and i mean no one could of seen this level of interest rate hiking happen in such a short period of time"

    Imagine saying this mere paragraphs after "i don't want to hear about the past high numbers like 21%, that's got nothing to do with this".

    • +41

      id say alot of people did

      massive money printing
      handing extra money to people who didn't even have jobs, or small paying jobs during covid
      pathetic interest rates
      when you can easily earn more in dividends than a home loan and fixed rates well below variable there is shit wrong

      rates need to be 4% +and they will go that high, rba is slow.

      • +1

        If you think the average home buyer has much understanding of this stuff you are kidding yourself. Their thoughts don't go beyond how much will the bank lend me now and what can I afford with that. They aren't students of economics and would know more about MAFS than factors that influence interest rates.

        Another rate forecaster I see. Given the man in the top job quite recently said no expected rise until 2024, I'll treat your less qualified forecast with a very large pinch of salt.

        • Given the man in the top job quite recently said no expected rise until 2024
          Are you serious? The RBA themselves literally said they expect further increases over the coming months

          • @TheFreaK: Around one year or so ago is quite recently when you are forecasting the next couple of years which he did. I'm not taking about what he said two days ago.

            • @Brianqpr: find the exact quote and youll realise why people should stop bringing that up as a complaint

        • +3

          I'm not kidding myself, I would say the average person has a brain or at least knows to get advice. I think you are describing morons who not complain, I mean is it reallt that fkn hard to go look at interest rate historical graph. The average person cant fix a car, but they know to go to a mechanic.

          Everyone is responsible for their decisions on what to borrow and what to benchmark the interest rate rises at no one else. Furthermore if you have no idea of interest rate movements, then fix it.

          If you don't understand economics and interest rates go see a financial advisor before hand to get their advice / knowledge, don't plead ignorance.

          and even if interest rates didn't rise till 2024, whats the plan then when it does rise?

          • +1

            @Donaldhump: It is pretty obvious something was brewing with a pandemic and a war in Europe. I thought about getting in to the housing market out of necessity but am holding off since I don't want a falling asset. Just wait for what's yet to come.

            • @BluebirdV: you could wait 6-12 months, but i waited for ever and gave up, probly bought worst time, but guess I'm saying if your ready just start looking, could be some desperate people soon, just low ball

              in one breath id love properties to tank
              in another i just don't think will be that bad, maybe 5-10%

              • +1

                @Donaldhump: Is reasonable advice - 6-12mths seems very conservative and likely could stretch to even longer as i can't imagine things improving too much. That said, people are very reluctant to take losses on their homes - and will often suffer in all kinds of ways to avoid this.

                Which as a share investor is very odd - as you have to bite your lip and do it regularly, even on long term holds you swore were bulletproof.

                I would contact a few RE agents and advise them what you're after, your finance status and ask to be notified about 'good deals' that need to be sold quickly with minimum hassle. If they feel you're legit and will help them get the sale with no fuss, they'll let you know - but you'll have to churn this through a few over time as they'll lose interest if you don't bite after what they view as enough of them.

                Suffice to say go well within your max budget - as you can always step up in due course when normal business resumes.

          • @Donaldhump: Except people generally do not go to financial advisers about home loans. They go to banks and other lenders who do not provide personal financial advice to them when they are applying for a loan.

            Outside those of us with an interest in finance or working in the area, average people have poor financial literacy. Just witness how everyone piles into the share market at the top and sells in a panic after things have fallen. If they were familiar with and understood longer term patterns you wouldn't see this stuff happening in markets.

            The bank will tell you what you can borrow. That will determine what property people try to buy and people buy homes based on emotion as much as anything else. Hence the increases in property prices when rates fell and them pulling back now. If everyone looked at long term trends and seriously considered potenial rate increases then these price fluctuations would not happen in response to interest rate changes. But they do, every single time.

            Financial advisers generally don't provide advice on buying a home and are not sought out for this, they deal with investments, super, insurance, estate planning etc and advice is expensive as the industry is highly regulated.

            Historical rates mean nothing, its a different world now. Its been demonstrated for example that home loan rates of 6% today have a similar impact to the much talked about 17% rates of the past.

            As for where rates are going, nobody knows. Your 4%+ forecast would mean loan rates of around 6.5 to 7% or more, when another post on here said you can currenty get two year fixed rates for a bit over 5% with some lenders (which would imply a cash rate of around 2.5-3%). That's clearly what some lenders are expecting and prepared to put a bet on if offering these fixed rates.

            • +2

              @Brianqpr: You are very correct - but as with countless areas at some point this becomes the consumers responsibility.

              I had this exact conversation with low income friend, trying to take out $600k loan for 2br villa in a crap area only 9mths ago. She felt that the bank approving the loan was tantamount to financial advise and it took me hours to convince her it was in fact nothing of the sort.

              I am sure any advisor would for a quite modest fee - give an educated and impartial opinion on such matters, but is amazing how penny pinching folks get on a $500 fee when they were falling over themselves to drop $700k just a few minutes beforehand.

              It has been said by others but it really is Darwinian theory - as logic says on the BIGGEST financial purchase of your lifetime, you should be pulling out every single stop and then some to ensure you're dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's but many see it as just a scaled up consumer durable purchase and assume it'll be fine.

              • +1

                @Daniel Plainview: The entire real estate industry and media is geared towards avoiding people making well researched and considered decisions.

                • +1

                  @Brianqpr: No, not the entire industry & media - there are business models in there for a fee to assist. But again this is on the buyer/lendee to figure out. And thats a massive oversimplification - there's more info available literally at ones finger tips than ever.

                  You're either a 'big boy' who can take out a whopping loan and buy a property by themselves or you need you hand held and mandated government assistance programs, licences to do such things as you can't be trusted. Can't have the best of both, folks want the former - and have it.

                  At the end of the day, if you don't give the full due diligence to such matters, why should anyone else? It's really only in your (the lendee's benefit).

        • He never said no rises until 2024 it's a misquote.

          Nobody can predict the future. It's not like the RBA had access to intelligence that Ukraine would get invaded by Russia.

          They are not some all knowing super intelligence they can't predict the future nobody can and if you believe someone predicting the future you need you head examined.

  • +48

    could of

    Could have, mate.

      • +40

        stop trying to silence people

        A friendly could have is not silencing anyone, you literal baby.

        I am not ashamed of knowing the difference between could have and could of - soz. Nice try, though

        • -7

          its not a friendly "could have" at all

          • +4

            @jso1980: You're right. That 'mate' was so passive aggressive it should be considered a verbal assault.

            You know what? People should be allowed to incorrectly use the English language freely without fear of being corrected. It's a form of discrimination and they shouldn't be made to feel that they're wrong or made a mistake on the internet. People should be able to decide individually when they are ready to learn from their mistakes.

            #mategate
            Cancel ThithLord

            • @ozbargainsam:

              That 'mate' was so passive aggressive it should be considered a verbal assault.

              lol you can read intent on one word? Drama queen much?

              • +1

                @ThithLord: Your point was technically correct - however, if it was such an important matter to you - wouldn't you be all over OzB 'assisting' members by correcting their spelling and grammatical errors?

                But it seems you're not - which is understandable and completely fine.

                My point? Well as @Debt Free perhaps rightly feels and has tried to convey, it feels like a 'petty'(as he said) and seemingly personal point to flag - as by definition you're not applying your 'assistance' to all the other needy posts & persons?

                We all know replying to folks telling them they spelt things incorrectly, used the wrong varient of a word etc has been seen as,"Really???" for a long time.

                But look if it's so important to you - please instead of wasting time replying here feel free to 'help' others on this site and the many others. None of this is meant as a personal shot etc. :-)

                • @Daniel Plainview:

                  please instead of wasting time replying here feel free to 'help' others on this site and the many others

                  All good buddy - I will do; I am indifferent to the babies being offended for me pointing out a friendly spelling mistake.

                  Could of/should of is just grating for me to read, that's all

                • +1

                  @Daniel Plainview: Presumptuous use of the term “He” said, perhaps. What do you say to that ThithLord?

              • +2

                @ThithLord: It's sarcasm, mate.

                Oh man. Does it not come across as sarcastic? I laid it on as thick as I could

                • -1

                  @ozbargainsam: It didn't contrast with the rest of your comment so I couldn't exactly spot any sarcasm

        • +1

          Debt is correct. You act like a passive-aggressive weak dog.

        • +1

          Ruined it when you said soz. Gross.

          • +1

            @Jugganautx: Mate is there any way possible for me to get your approval? I am dying here

  • +4

    Governments need to reduce all stimuli now! These bs handouts allow people to spend or have more money.

    No more giving out $xxx just because you have a kid and they need a backpack etc.

    • +39

      I would argue stimulus in the property market should be phased out. It pushes up prices, thereby canceling out its intended purpose, and hurting everyone (except people flipping properties for megabucks).

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