Hi all,
So I am with QSuper and I am wondering should I change my super investment to cash before the big recession that is coming? When Covid hit my super took a hit and then came back. Apparently according to news.com.au we are about to have a blood bath… should I get ahead of the game and change my super investment option to cash?
What is everyone else doing with their super?
The 'can be' is implied in the reliable.
Not really.
Much of technical analysis is based on past performance.
@jv: and it has been proven over and over again that technical analysis using past performance cant beat the index over any reasonable timeframe and sample set.
and it has been proven over and over again that technical analysis using past performance cant beat the index
I can see you don't really understand technical analysis.
For sure past comments can be a predictor of future comments
there you go… more proof.
Indeed - I pulled mine into cash too soon before and only cost myself money because whilst yes the market is cyclical the timing is really really hard to exactly predict and there are really only a few short periods that make a big difference, whereas long term growth and dividends continue over time.
I.e. if you go months early into cash, and preserve your dollars at $X (ignoring interest on cash as that is just keeping up with diminishing value of your cash due to inflation over time), you miss out on capital growth (for simplicity let's say X +10%), it then drops sharply for 1-2 months and wipes out that growth to (X -10%), you think, yes I knew that was coming, I had my money in cash…. everyone is upset about losing 20% but really you only preserved 10% as you missed out on growth in the preceding time. Then there's the next challenge - where is the bottom to buy back in… because it will bounce up and down for a while before actually heading back up reliably. Whilst the market is in meltdown and doom and gloom and you are gloating about being right, those "losers" are just holding onto their stocks for the long haul now… but there's an old saying "If you try to pick the bottom of the market, all you will get is stinky fingers" :-p
Then it happens - before you realise the recession is actually over and not another dead cat bounce after a series of false starts, and put your cash back into shares, it has partially recovered (e.g. let's say X +5%), and actually you were worse off because you are down overall + dividends that kept up with the money earned in interest in the bank anyway.
However it is certainly possible to cash up at the right time and back in accordingly with a lot of work, it's up to you - If you are sure there is a major long term recession with long term decline, and you think you can work out exactly when that will start and end despite day to day fluctuations, then cash out if you will… but the big recession has been coming for 2 years now by some accounts…. and it's probably right. It will always be right if you wait long enough - It still doesn't mean you will time it right to maximise returns due to how accurate you need to be…
Or you can do what most analysts say works if you aren't near to retirement and just set and forget in reliable investments for the long haul and not watch it day to day…. and come out a winner.
Or do what any good investment strategy does and diversify - do part cash part stocks and spread the risk but with the understanding that lower risk = lower return long term
before the big recession that is coming?
You mean the big boom that is coming?
I would suggest it's not a good idea to base your financial decisions on articles from news.com.au.
This.
If you want to understand finance and economics there are far better (and free) sources to research.
I wouldn't consider news.com.au an authority on financial advice.. I guess if you'd prefer the low risk option go for it. Just know you will miss out on any potential gains should the recession not take place (i'm sure you are aware of this).
I wouldn't consider news.com.au an authority on financial advice
Or anything for that matter. Unless you like fake outrage, racism and shilling for the Liberal party.
You mean taxpayer funded media, with a charter requiring them to be balanced
@cnrmlj: People who say that abc is as unbalanced as newscorp sites really need to do some research and beef up their critical thinking skills.
While groups like ABC tend to lean left, their quality of reporting is much higher and factual. Newscorp websites lean right but quality is much lower with much more misinformation.
@BigBirdy: Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending the bias of news.com, afr, and certanly not the likes of Sky…
but don't be a hypcrit, the ABC, SBS?… Balanced? … HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA (takes breath) HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Perhaps it's not a organisational stance to be biased, but that certainly doesn't stop them ensuring they hire a series of left wing individual journalists to run stories as they see fit, which in individual content doesn't present both sides of the argument in question…
They then cancel most right wing journalists or severely limit what they can say and put it to the bottom of the list due to their non-woke views to avoid offending anyone being against company policy…
Next you will be telling me the Guardian is balanced too! That's funny - "balanced"
Sure it's less bias left then sky is right, and they pass fact-checking tests for their stories, but hey, don't take my word for it, organisations specifically set up to rate the bias of media rated ABC "left-centre bias" - https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/abc-news-australia/
"Overall, we rate ABC News Australia, Left-Center Biased based on story selection that moderately favors the left…"
"In review, ABC News uses emotionally loaded headlines about US Politics such as this “Donald Trump kicked off his re-election campaign by making socialism into 2020’s dirty word.”
"ABC News has a section underworld news dedicated to US news titled “Trump’s America,” with most stories being Anti-Trump."
"When it comes to national politics, ABC News publishes articles with loaded headlines and criticizes the center-right government “Scott Morrison said all the right things after Christchurch attack, but his history tells another story.” "
… and SBS left-centre bias:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/special-broadcasting-service-…
"For example, they frequently report negatively on conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison, such as Scott Morrison’s high-flying $3.1 million travel and accommodation costs revealed. SBS also advocates for legal gay marriage and expresses concern for climate change."
If I have to rank which news sources I use, ABC and even Guardian are in my top 5 due to the factual reliability… but I try to be a centre realist to get balanced views and that means you need to use multiple sources really.
@MrFrugalSpend: Very true. The difference and the problem is that we have to pay for the biased news from ABC. Not directly, but through taxes everyone is contributing to pay for the ABC. So you would expect them not to be so unashamedly and blatantly biased.
News.com vs abc and sbs? Is this a joke question?
@helpme: If it wasn’t for news.com.au, then where else would I go for news stories lifted from reddit and tik tok?!
I wouldn't consider news.com.au an authority on financial advice
RBA Governor: Interest rates will stay low, for the foreseeable future
Also, RBA Governor: Me, so sorry!
everyone situation and risk tolerance is different what works for one may not works for another, you should work out your risk tolerance level and act according to that.
for me I have always been invested but I am all DIY, I know a fair bit about stock market and properties market so I act according to my risk tolerance level and have risk management system in place to manage all type of risk from major crash to pro long down turn to boom market
I been through Dotcom crash, GFC, Covid Crash, and probably a few more to come
Genuinely interested to hear how your Super has performed over 10 years - as you mentioned you have risk "management system in place to manage all type of risk from major crash to pro long down turn to boom market."
@D Money
Last 10 years, not counting cash I currently hold to pound when I see opportunity
you can see the dip during covid but I double down on the business I know well selling for bargain basement price
and the year after, my portfolio double.
Sufficient to say I easily outperform the market many times over with my risk management system
end of FY a few months away and I am up 16% so far and the index is up around 10-11%
No. Christ. No.
Using news.com.au as your trustworthy financial source is your first problem. There are a lot of factors in play in determining what is the best decision for your super but I will say relying on a bargain forum for advice is probably not the best decision.
Put it all on black.
They've correctly predicted the last 9 out of 2 recessions. The biggest risk is sitting in cash and watching the market take off while the value of your money erodes due to inflation.
9 out of 2 is very impressive.
The biggest risk is sitting in cash and watching the market take off while the value of your money erodes due to inflation.
I can think of several things riskier than that
I'm using the safest option and putting it through the pokies waiting for my big payout.
There's no way to pick it. Co-vid should have been a major recession, gov't overcompensated and we got a massive boom. Now we should be in post covid boom and gov't trying to kill it.
Only things we know are eventually we have a crash, and it recovers, (and there's mammoth companies and investment companies out there now with enough capital to mess things up and way too much power)
If you're not sure you could try 40% cash / 40% balanced / 20% high growth.
Do it
You definitely should, but wait until the day before.
Also, make sure you buy back in on the first day of the recovery.
Missing those dates would be disastrous.
Bro, with a username like that and solid strats like this, you should write a book.
OK, I'll do that. Thanks for the advice.
Take on the highest growth portfolio option now and convert to cash around mid-July.
Source: Trust me bro
In bro we trust, bro.
Cuz, I am the illuminati, trust me
Agree. Macrobusiness specifically said 7th of July at about 1:15pm AEST.
I don't even know what Macrobusiness is but glad some sane people came to a similar conclusion as me.
No
/thread
according to news.com.au
lmaooooo
Funny how when all the 'conspiracy theorists' have been predicting a recession for a long time giving everyone plenty of time to research and organise nobody listens, but when the MSM says it everyone panics as if the prediction were from the lord baby Jesus hisself? :)
People are so funny.
Probably had something to do with how they present themselves and their ideas. Hard for people to take you seriously if you present your opinions as facts, followed by name calling and "do your own research" to find confirmation bias for you.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
You forgot the bit about making generalisations and wild assumptions. :)
Yes, their generalisations and wild assumptions is also funny.
So… What you're saying is that broken clocks are considerably more reliable that conspiracy theorists?
Is that your understanding of the saying?
Yep. They WISH they were right twice a day :p
shut up with your facts you fascist far-right wing anti-vax cooker!!! /s
Lol I didn't say any of that. Not sure if you even realise that you proved my point.
I think he was talking to me? Well I giggled anyway.
ughhhhh…learn to read mate. in no way was i addressing or would want to address any of your comments
and learn how to get the 'joke'.
….for once.
@franco cozzo: Lol need I remind you of your famous and hilarious chemist warehouse and bunnings daft rantings?
Any way, shouldn't you be in school?
Hisself
Bruh you consume too much American content
Like, totally , for shuuure doood.
just put your money where bill gates puts his…<winkwink>
Aww c'mon, I have to sleep at night…
Best to get a second opinion. What does Fox say?
2020 Election Fraud
Foxed again….
Anything to do with the Murdochs is probably untrue IMO.
tucker carlson may have had an opinion on this but alas…….
Yeah - who cares?
First thing how old are you? Thats a big factor in what your going to do with the super. Recession? I doubt it very much personally i think it will stabilise overall then a improvement not a boom though
The balanced option generally has a portion cash anyway. I would select conservative balanced if I was going to be more risk averse. I have always been balanced and super has done me well over the 25 years. I may go 50% cash if I decide to be even more risk aware. I am retired so need to be more risk aware now I guess. No-one has the answers. I do think Australia is better placed than most to avoid recession, providing mining does not get hit by China issues.
In short, 100% NO…especially with a slow to react to instructions investment like super.
Here's a mind blowing number for you - if you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
Read that again and let it sink it - it's a crazy number.
https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-con…
The saying 'Time in the market is more important than timing the market' exists for a reason.
PS. And be aware (as i overlooked this for many years) EVERY time you chop and change your super investments e.g fund %'s - you almost certainly trigger CGT implications for yourself i.e you're copping CGT costs on your super investments - which you will not see but you are! So do not change them unless you have a good reason to do so - otherwise only change the future contributions.
How much would you gain by missing the 10 worst days?
That's the question I had in mind.
Everyone takes the little facts that boost their story (like the 10/30 best days), and ignores the fact that it's very difficult to own stocks on those days and not the days in between, that might include some of the worst days.
The truth is you're better off in the market, but not by an astonishing 83% or other crazy number.
https://intl.assets.vgdynamic.info/intl/australia/documents/…
Looking over 30 year horizon - the differences are much bigger.
Apparently according to news.com.au
Hahahahahahahahahahaha
….we are best to wait until the abc and the guardian tell us that we can no longer afford to eat or shelter ourselves eh?
now, this is what building back better feels like!
Due to high inflation, if you sat on cash, it'd be worth less in a year's time. OK so you don't know what's going to happen with shares/managed funds either, but until inflation settles down, going to cash is a certainty - a certainty in that you will lose money.
so….legos?
Eneloops
Put it in gold.
This is like a feedback loop thing. If more and more people convert their share to cash, then the share price will drop.
Timing the market is not for the faint hearted, but you may consider this if you're nearing retirement. Otherwise, treat your super as a long-term investment and remember: past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance