Australian Dollar Drops Significantly Against Most Currencies. What Are Your Predictions?

Hello everyone! The Australian dollar has plunged against most currencies. It has fell to its lowest since early April 2020, was last down 4.42% at $0.60490 against the American dollar (USD).

What matters most to me it's AUD to EUR, I haven't exchanged my AUD yet, and now I regret. It has dropped to 1 AUD = €0.55. 😭

Any financial gurus out there? What are your predictions?

According to AI, this is the response I got.

Reasons for AUD Weakness Against the Euro
Economic Dependence on China:

Australia's economy heavily relies on commodity exports, particularly to China. The ongoing economic slowdown in China has reduced demand for key Australian exports like iron ore, impacting Australia's foreign currency earnings and weakening the AUD.

Global Trade Tensions:

Trade disputes between the US and China have created volatility in global markets. Since the AUD is often viewed as a proxy for the Chinese yuan due to Australia's trade ties, instability in China's currency has negatively affected the AUD.

Fiscal Challenges:

Rising public debt and persistent budget deficits in Australia have undermined investor confidence in the country's fiscal management. These fiscal imbalances are contributing to downward pressure on the AUD.

Interest Rate Differentials:

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decisions, including relatively lower interest rates compared to the European Central Bank (ECB), have reduced demand for AUD-denominated assets, further weakening the currency.

Commodity Price Volatility:

Fluctuations in global commodity prices, particularly coal and iron ore, have hurt Australia's export revenues, exacerbating pressure on the AUD.

Predictions for AUD/EUR Exchange Rate
Forecasts suggest moderate fluctuations throughout 2025:

According to National Australia Bank (NAB), the AUD/EUR exchange rate is expected to hover around €0.61–€0.63 during 2025.

Month-by-month predictions indicate slight dips in mid-2025 but potential stabilization by year-end.

Outlook
While some improvement in AUD/EUR rates may occur later in 2025 due to potential global economic recovery or favorable commodity price trends, persistent fiscal challenges and China's economic slowdown could keep the AUD under pressure in the short term. Investors and businesses should monitor RBA and ECB policies, as well as global trade developments, for more clarity on future trends.

Poll Options

  • 29
    Hold !! What goes down, goes up!
  • 177
    You are screwed... AUD will drop further

Comments

  • +84

    It's a good thing most of our wealth isn't tied up on trading existing houses between each other, so we have a robust economy and industry to weather such concerns.

    • +9

      Well I am kind of tied up on the AUD to EUR exchange rate, since my lifetime savings are in AUD and I live in Europe. So situation it's a bit stressful to me.

      • +3

        Just blame the government.

        • 😂😂

        • +5

          No matter who you vote for, the government always gets in.

      • +3

        So short the aud on your FX platform?

      • +10

        Not a good idea to live in a country and have all your money in another, very very risky (as you are experiencing now)

      • What in God's name would posses you to retire overseas without taking your funds with you.
        Go buy some AUD puts or short AUD on a platform.

        • +6

          I didn't retire. I wish.. I have a long long way to go. I just migrated to Europe. I am a dual citizen, Australian and EU. I didn't exchange my funds because I didn't need them at that time, also better interest rate in Australian Banks but also exchange rate was relatively stable between AUD and EUR. So I thought to not exchange it.
          My lifetime savings it's not that much for most Ozbargainers. My lifetime savings might be someone's annual salary. But for me it took me many years of hard work and frugal living.
          Hopefully the AUD rebounce, otherwise I am f***d.

          • +2

            @Scrooge McDeal: How screwed you are really depends on when you will need the funds.
            If you don't need them then its OK as it will level back - one day, but that could be 1 year or 10 years.
            If you think you will need access to them soon then watch out for any favourable Trumpet announcements and then hope in the following 24 hours you see the rate move enough to tempt you to move some.
            Short term, my guess, is we still have a bit worse to come.

          • @Scrooge McDeal: I'd call AUD/EUR FAR from "stable" - at least as far as G10 currencies go.

            AUD is a risk currency. When risk assets (i.e. stocks) get hit, AUD will go with it. If you're earning an income in EUR I just wouldn't touch the AUD, and if you want protection from further downside buy some put options on an exchange.

            I've seen you're asking others about advice on reading charts and so on. My advice to you is that you're going to almost certainly regret trying to trade with your life savings, particularly if you've never had trading experience before. Either don't touch the money at all, hedge it with options (or whatever else), or transfer it all over to EUR now to stop the bleeding and at least have peace of mind that it wont move any further against you.

            Hopefully you take this as a lesson for next time, and realise that the "interest rate being better" was simply you being compensated for being in a higher risk currency - you took an added risk you didn't need to and got hurt. There's a reason why you could buy Egyptian pounds and lend it to a bank there and get 28%!

            • @ferry594: I was planning to exchange it in 6 months time. I didn't know AUD / EUR is so risky. Usually it fluctuates a cent up or down. I wasn't expecting a huge dive like that. I am earning an income in EUR put that won't be enough to do what I want. I don't want to exchange it at this low level.
              I am clueless in reading charts, but I could sense I am screwed when the trend of AUD was to fall.

              • @Scrooge McDeal: Fair enough - I'm not here to tell you where and when to get in and out because truly, I couldn't tell you. But in the time since you've made this post AUD/EUR has moved 1.5% against you (and now back to almost flat vs Saturday close) with AUD/USD trading below 60c

                Probably sucks eggs big time in your position (I know the move in FX has stuffed a few things up for me massively) but maybe it might just be best to scrap your longer term plans of buying an apartment or whatever and just wait out the storm?

          • @Scrooge McDeal: did you cash out your super before you left?

            • +1

              @Poor Ass: No, my super it's still there. I wasn't allowed to take it out. I am still young. I am guessing that would get hurt too. But that will recover, until my time to retire comes.

              • +2

                @Scrooge McDeal: too young to be a scrooge

                but yeah AUD is always a volatile one and weak as piss….. any global events AUD first to crash unfortunately

    • Sorry, I'm a bit slow but this is a sarcastic comment yea? Haha. On another note, when RBA cut rates, will it abolish AUD even more? Not sure if it's "priced in".

      • +1

        Yes, it is sarcastic lol. Recall when China took a hit just last year, Australian currency was sent into a nosedive. It wasn't because of US or EU. Just China lol.

      • No it's not priced in. Demand for Australian bonds will decrease, less demand for Australian currency. Currency doesn't generate a return, the price therefore purely reflects the current supply and demand assuming most activity is genuine trading (rather than speculation)

        • If not priced in n rba cuts rate then AUD will keep going down…

    • +1

      Let's just dig up and sell more dirt to China. That'll fix it.

    • LOL

  • +10

    Buy the dip

  • +6

    A lower AUD helps our exports & our balance of trade, just doesn't help if you want to buy anything produced overseas or go travelling.
    In saying that however I'm guessing many other countries China, Asia, Canada etc are going to have to sell their product cheaper given they won't have as a big a market in the USA anymore…..time will tell.
    USD has got to drop sometime soon, if they fall into recession as interest rates will fall devaluing the USD to most other countries.

    • +9

      Except what is most important is OP's life savings, not Australian exports and Trade.

  • +2

    Interest Rate Differentials

    That is a lie.

    ECB is 2.5% with possibility of going lower. Market expect RBA to end at 3.1% currently 4.1%. ECB always been lower than RBA. I remember when they were like zero pre COVID. Australia never went to zero.

    Most likely due to price of our resources which go to China and perception that China will be worse of.

    Most likely short term until we see what China is going to do. China as a single party state can do a lot more than democracies do (not good if you are citizen on the receiving end).

    • Right so the ECB is closer to the "lower bound" than Australia. And as you said the RBA has another 100bps of cuts priced in.

      Ultimately AUD is a risk currency and if shit hits the fan then AUD/EUR should trade lower.

    • came here to comment this but you beat me to it. ECB has been mostly slower than RBA for the last 20 years

  • AUD EUR will rebound soon to 0.56 :P

    Do you need to exchange your money soon? Or you can keep it long term until you need to exchange it?

    AUD USD will not go up to 0.7 this year, it will take quite some time.

    AUD 1 = USD 1 will take even much longer in many years.

    How do I know? Chart doesn't lie. People can check Tradingview for example, but need to know how to read the chart properly.

  • Just hodl

    • I am not in urgent need, but I will need to exchange in the next 6 months. Hopefully AUD rebounce and don't fall further.

      • +3

        Gonna take some epic news to even recover to 65 I reckon

        • If it goes to €0.63 I will still be happy. But so many factors to take in. Hopefully something epic news will come for the AUD to recover.

        • +1

          Gonna take some epic news

          That may not happen on the evening of Saturday, 03 MAY 2025.

  • +2

    Buy Gold Bullion

  • +8

    I predict it will fluctuate.

    • +3

      I believe JIMB0 may secretly be Warren Buffet.

    • +1

      Fluctuations makes cents, cheers!

  • +25

    We have one of the worst economies in the world.

    Over 40% of our exports are Iron Ore, Coal and Natural Gas.

    We do nothing to diversify while demonising them and putting up roadblocks for new projects. We then refuse the use the abundance of Coal and Natural Gas to utilise the Iron Ore or develop any manufacturing. We could do it, but gas and coal are evil so we don't.

    Without demand on those products, the dollar freefalls.

    • -4

      Its only the worst if you support policies that hamstring these industries

      People are starting to realise the Green washing of politics has f—ked our economy

      Instead of running away from minjng we should be embarcing it as it is Australias strength

      • We could be doing more smelting here and other value added work to the raw minerals too.

        • +1

          The reason is isn't done here is taxation. The mining companies prefer to do the smelting offshore, claim to sell the Australian ore to their overseas smelter for a lower than realistic price, and pay less tax

          • +5

            @[Deactivated]: Yes, the mining corporations are tax cheats.

            IMO all mining operations in Australia should be part owned by an Australian government owned sovereign wealth fund. I'm thinking Saudi Aramco is a good model.

    • +17

      The very worst part is the narrowness of our economy. Sending rocks overseas is a low value way of using our natural resources.

      We really need to change it up so we're adding more value to our rocks - refining, creating higher value goods out of them.

      Plus, we could be a world leader in solar and battery tech, yet let so much of our expertise and opportunity head overseas.

      • -2

        We can't achieve the economies of scale and are hamstrung by distance to turn more than a fraction of them into anything. Anything we produce will be easily undercut price wise overseas, so unless you want to go down Trump's path of consumers paying a shit load more for goods and closing us off to foreign imports like the bad old days of the car industry then this is not going to change anytime soon.

        • hamstrung by distance

          Explain that like I'm 5. We can send iron ore which contains around 40% stuff other than iron overseas, but you're telling me we also couldn't smelt it here and send 100% iron overseas instead?

          • +2

            @tenpercent: Of course we could do it. Not at a competitive price though. Find enough Australians that are willing to do that tough labour work for the same pay as those overseas. Also, energy inputs here are too expensive and people are against nuclear /firm generation options. It's easy to say "we should add value to our natural resources" - but Australia simply doesn't have people willing to do that type of work or energy available at internationally competitive prices. So we might as well do what we do well - dig alot of dirt and sell it.

          • -4

            @tenpercent: We certainly can make and send stuff o/s we did it from the 40s-90s the issue is the Unions grew to powerful and wage conditions become way to uncompetitive compared to overseas

            We also foolishly trusted China way to much - for all the issues people have with Trump he is spot on not to trust China or India itnis better to make vital things at home ie cars, weapons, computers etc

        • +1

          Australia supplies 50% of the entire world's production of metallurgical coal for steel making. The problem is not scale

      • This is true but you need to encourage mining and tax is properly- now this is the last key that PM like Rudd didnt understand you take that tax money and Re-INVEST it into industries that would benefit from out materials

        You either holdthe $ as a warchest to invest in projects or you invest in innovative business

        Howard held the cash (not what i would of done) Rudd gave it to people to avoid a recession which was f—ken stupid and has ruined us

        Now it isnt all ALP the idiot Scott Morrision handed out 3x for no reason during covid (via debt)

        The COVID reponse and GFC responses in this country has f—ked future generations

        Don't let anyone tell you spending 600m to save a few 90 year olds from a flu was worth it

        • +2

          Easy to say but businesses dont spawn out of nowhere.

          In 2008 they needed to to get the money out fast. It's universally agreed by economists to be a great response. Most of it was actually infrastructure projects btw so not horrible. Nothing innovative but we're still benefiting today.

          • @Nekosynthesis: It most definitely is NOT universally agreed by economists as a great response. Many economists called it a huge waste that funneled money out of the country in response to a crisis which was never really going to hit Australia hard.

            • @gromit: Wait out of the country how?

              • @Nekosynthesis: The GFC handouts were effectively free handouts and resulted in huge surge in spending on luxury items like TV's. It was a terrible way to stimulate the economy with the majority of it benefiting foreign businesses. What they should have done is targeted incentives and investments in Australia to stimulate the economy where the majority of the benefit would have stayed here.

                • @gromit: The GFC handouts to consumers were just one part, the rest was infrastructure investment. I'm referring that to mostly

                  I can't say I've read anything about the spending on luxury items (though I can imagine the possibility). I thought it was targeted at low income earners?

                  Also re:investment in local industries - we hardly have any and none were going to spawn immediately during the year of 2008. Industry grants and incentives can't be taken if no one legitimate exists to take them. (there were lots of educational ones though)

                  Easy to say what should have been done but our low economic complexity is a self sustaining cycle. I personally have experienced how this even extends all the way down to the startup level.

        • +4

          Labors attempts to invest in new areas have been unfairly beaten up by Libs and the media. NBN is a good example of this, not exactly a new industry but an investment into the future that requires a bit of spending and imagination. Barely any risk in that case.
          Rudd/Gillard also tried to get out us at the front of renewables r&d and Abbott kneecapped the mere suggestion of coal alternatives for a decade.

          I don't buy the suggestion that mining needs any more direct encouragement. We're already too unimaginative and risk-averse to attempt anything without guaranteed profits, so digging stuff up will always be safe, but can only go so far.
          But resources have always been a case of give and inch and they take a mile. The richest people in the country cry poor, and our economy contracts to keep them happy.

          Hypothetical: how much would Australia have suffered if 5% of our lithium was never sold, and instead used to develop 5% of the world's EV batteries domestically, similar to the capacities of the US, Japan or Korea?

          • -6

            @crentist: The NBN is a terrible investment it is outdated itnis the equivalent of investing in blimps whilst the world moves to using aeroplanes - like Musk or not his StarLink technology is far superior and cheaper to maintain the LNP actually are 100% correct in opposing it and the fact anyone who votes ALP can't admit them suggest to me they are a cult voter opposed yo an informed one

            As for not buying into mining im sorry but factually speaking 40% of economy is mining your left mates hamstring the industry is hurting Australia- i agree with the left we need to tax it better perhaps something like government ownership like Saudie but anti mining Greens are screwing us hurting the economy this is a fact

            The only thing ALP had right was trying to bring back manufacturing but this would require a massive battle with Unions because wages and conditions would need to be realistic and globally competitive which would bring about negative voter sentiment - the LNP are 100% correct in cutting down public office as we cannot have an economic where the biggest employer and creator of jobs year after year is the government it is not sustainable the fact the ALP and Green die hards on here dont realise that the better

            The LNP has issues regarding housing the seem to think ridiculously stupid policy of wanting to allow people to use super to buy houses….this won't fix the housing crisis… however on the flip side reducing migration will fix the problem but permeate migration in Australia should be banned unless you marry an Australia there is no benefit to permanent migration but looks of issues with it

            The LNP is also stuck on old economy where working from home is the enemy and property and mining is all we have whilst not attempting to invest in new technology

            Both parties are terrible for the economic future of Australia the fact people are trying to gaslight the ALP as a party with a solution concerns me when personally speaking neither of the 3 parties are pulling in the right direction nor do they have an acceptable plan

            I have and always will 'call it as it see it' no matter who you vote for we will either go into a recession or mask one with higher migration - either way the standard of living for Australian citizens will continue to decline probably faster under and Albanese government but regardless Dutton doesn't have the innovative mentality to fix the issues Australia actually has

            But we need to cut services asap or watch our country keep going backwards ie NDIS, 1st nations waste of taxpayer funding, the ABC and SBS, foreign aid etc none of these things improve the economy but costs a shit load

            • +4

              @Trying2SaveABuck: NBN should never have been aiming to turn a profit. That was the only mistake Labor made and that was probably to help sell it to the masses.

              The aim should have been a giant (profanity) -off fibre network but Libs gotta Lib so here we are.

              • -4

                @WhyAmICommenting: The NBN was a good idea at the time but itnis "outdated' technology itnis right to abandon any plans

                The rise satellite and cloud technology is far cheaper to superior

                Im not having a Dig at either party for backing the NBN at the time it was the rignt call but the ALP looking to complete it now is 100% wrong call

                The LNP are right when it comes to this

                • +2

                  @Trying2SaveABuck:

                  The rise satellite and cloud technology is far cheaper to superior

                  What "cloud technology" are you talking about, in regards to a broadband network?

                  Satellite was and never will be a replacement for a fibre network.

                • +1

                  @Trying2SaveABuck: Me when I dont understand the tech lol

                • @Trying2SaveABuck:

                  The rise satellite and cloud technology is far cheaper to superior

                  What do you think cloud technology is? The clouds in the sky?
                  It's a fancy label for offloading personal computing, which is only made possible with fast, reliable internet.
                  And fibre is simply the best technology for that.

                  Not sure where you get the idea it's anywhere near outdated. Fibre is the most reliable, scalable, and future-proof broadband technology available. It was true then, and still true 10+ years after the Libs wasted our money butchering Labors plan, and even when we finally have semi-viable mobile and satellite options. And it will still be true in another 10 years.

                  Anything else, especially satellite, is a gap-filler, and would make a terrible foundation for the country.
                  For throughput, latency, and congestion, it's not even close. The numbers are very clear on the advantages of fibre.

              • +1

                @WhyAmICommenting: If it doesn't aim to turn a profit, it is no longer a government equity investment, it's considered a direct grant payment. The difference is a direct payment creates an expense in the budget (which primarily focuses on cash accounting) whereas an equity investment is largely invisible - literally termed 'off budget financing'

                It would never have been built if that was the case, even if it was actually a superior policy idea

    • +11

      There is huge demand for our gas, but we give it away free, so that politicians can get sweet jobs after they retire. Also, LNP and Murdoch don't believe we should get a fair economic return for resources that belong to all Australians. Scum.

      • -5

        This is just left wing garbage from the woke lunatics from reddit the only parties thay have been against Gas are the ALP and Greens look at Victoria lmao

        Now i agree the LNP signed a stupid deal selling gas to the Japanese but no one seems interested in doing anything about that

        The Greens DONT want gas mining and neither does the left side of the ALP - just google Victoria's ALP gas plans….

  • +2

    Buy more gold. Silver doesn't change much.

    • Too much paper gold in market.

      • +1

        Honestly speaking Gold will continie to go higher in this market

  • matters most to me it's AUD to EUR

    Most matter to you should be USD and UK pounds, not Euro for AUD.

  • +5

    AUD is a risk off/ carry trade currency which means in sell offs like now it should fall further

    However tariffs are an unknown in modern times

    If you go by currency offset theory the USD should gain and the AUD, RMB etc should drop

    *sorry had dyslexic moment
    meant risk off

    • +1

      This is the correct comment.

  • +2

    We have already achieved the devaluation that the US so desperately wants.

  • Have you seen the AUD/JPY? AUD is suddenly much weaker! Glad I moved some AUD over when it was above 100 last year. Of course I wish I had moved more…

    • +2

      Bought heaps when it was 1 to 109 yen a no brainer

  • -2

    omg i gotta stock up on ssds and ram! glad i upgraded my computers recently.

  • +1

    GREAT CHANCE TO GET RICH!

    • +1

      Or more likely get very poor…..

      • depends on what currency you hold your cash…… Euro to AUD is looking great. 🤔

        • -1

          Considering this is an Australian website 99% of us wpuld hold and be paid in AUD

          Ill note the Europeans will probably come off the 'worst' from the current trade war as they have a heavy reliance on U.S military support….in addition multiple European Union nations need tourism to keep their economy going this will also be negatively impacted

          Overall the tariffs might benefit us as China and other nations will trade less with the U.S and more with us

          • @Trying2SaveABuck: Much rather be an Australian and continue to receive the free military protection. Europe will bankrupt its social programs trying to rebuild its military meanwhile its industry is already in rapid decline.

            • @[Deactivated]: 100 percent agree the Europeans are f—ked not to mention that are a few bad words away from an all out war across the continent

              now i 'dont' wish for war in Europe or anywhere else but their is so much relgious/political/social tension within nations and between nations [not to mention the actual wars European Nations are fighting already]

  • +17

    Great, not only has the average Australian had negative real wage growth for the last 5 years in terms of our ability to purchase property, but now it's also going to cost more to buy products from overseas or go on holidays overseas, and it will be easier for wealthy foreign investors to buy Australian property because the AU dollar is so cheap.

  • +14

    The worst thing the world did was move away from Gold and allow the USD to be the central currency

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